2019 BOA Grand National Championships

[Hard Core Band Fan]

Gonna go to my first GN.  Decided after San Antonio I need to see our Texas group in Indy this year.  Excited!

 

Awesome! I've been several times and it is an experience of a lifetime. Have fun!

[TWHSParent]

Gonna go to my first GN.  Decided after San Antonio I need to see our Texas group in Indy this year.  Excited!

 

You'll have to try to join us for our get-together Friday evening if you can.

[northtexasbandfan]

My son is hoping to go to Grand Nats finals to root on #TeamTexas. By coincidence, he'll be in Indy with the Nebraska Percussion Ensemble at PASIC, which overlaps with Grand Nats, and has a concert Saturday morning (plus one on Friday at some high school named ... Carmel .... I think that name rings a bell). He has to choose between the PASIC closing concert and Grand Nats, and is leaning heavily toward the latter, but is trying to get some fellow Ensemble members to go with him. No surprise that as a Flower Mound alum his #1 rooting choice will be Hebron. 

[Majellan]

I understand what you are trying to say. Maybe if bands like Rosemount and Lafayette decide to attend it will be a stronger field for making finals.

Rosemount barely made finals in St Louis. GN already has Harrison, ga, Park Vista Fl., Union OK., the Indiana bands and so on. Add in the Texas bands and it sounds pretty festive to me.

[TWHSParent]

Rosemount barely made finals in St Louis. GN already has Harrison, ga, Park Vista Fl., Union OK., the Indiana bands and so on. Add in the Texas bands and it sounds pretty festive to me.

 

Wow, feels like I made that comment 30 years ago. Don't remember the full context....

 

I think it was a comparison of the depth of finalist contenders for GN vs SA? So Carmel, Avon, Homestead, Park Vista, Ayala, Harrison, William Mason, Vandegrift, Leander, Hebron, Claudia Taylor Johnson, The Woodlands, Round Rock, Union, Fishers, Marian Catholic, James F Byrnes, North Hardin, Lawrence Township, and maybe a few others (James Madison, Center Grove, Ardrey Kell, Panther Creek...) make for a pretty decent top 20ish set of bands.

[SpartanBandAlum]

I think the comment about Rosemount was also made before St. Louis, but after their success at Cedar Falls, which may have played a part

[CTJBandPops]

I found the daily schedule I was looking for.  Also, FYI...looks like there are 90+ bands now.

MFA giving away admission to local bands to get the numbers above SA - have to justify not having semis in SA or giving it the respect it deserves as a viable competitor to GNats

[TWHSParent]

Just a nerd post...

 

Since 1998 here are the max/avg/min scores for each of the 12 finals positions

 

     Max                         Avg          Min

1   97.75 (2008)           96.62       94.35 (2003)

2   97.45 (2016)           95.79       93.95 (2002)

3   96.55 (2016)           95.02       93.10 (2003)

4   96.20 (2008)           94.20       91.60 (2002)

5   95.625 (2017)         93.36       91.45 (2002)

6   94.65 (2016)           92.13       89.25 (2002)

7   93.00 (2015)           91.18       87.40 (2002)

8   92.50 (1998)           90.26       87.35 (2002)

9   91.30 (1998/2016)  89.50       86.70 (2002)

10 91.05 (1998/2016)  88.86       85.95 (2002)

11 91.00 (2016)           87.92       85.20 (2008)

12 90.05 (2016)           86.95       82.50 (1999)

[LHSbandDad]

Just a nerd post...

 

Since 1998 here are the max/avg/min scores for each of the 12 finals positions

 

     Max                         Avg          Min

1   97.75 (2008)           96.62       94.35 (2003)

2   97.45 (2016)           95.79       93.95 (2002)

3   96.55 (2016)           95.02       93.10 (2003)

4   96.20 (2008)           94.20       91.60 (2002)

5   95.625 (2017)         93.36       91.45 (2002)

6   94.65 (2016)           92.13       89.25 (2002)

7   93.00 (2015)           91.18       87.40 (2002)

8   92.50 (1998)           90.26       87.35 (2002)

9   91.30 (1998/2016)  89.50       86.70 (2002)

10 91.05 (1998/2016)  88.86       85.95 (2002)

11 91.00 (2016)           87.92       85.20 (2008)

12 90.05 (2016)           86.95       82.50 (1999)

 

Great stuff!! Looks like 2016 was a good year!!  Bonus question.....do you know how many of these high scores belong to Texas bands?  I know the 6th place score  in 2016  belongs to Leander but other than that I do not know.

[SpartanBandAlum]

Great stuff!! Looks like 2016 was a good year!! Bonus question.....do you know how many of these high scores belong to Texas bands? I know the 6th place score in 2016 belongs to Leander but other than that I do not know.

5th - FloMo 2017

6th - Leander 2016

7th - Round Rock 2015

9th - Churchill 1998/CTJ 2016

 

So 4 spots held by 5 bands

[TWHSParent]

Texas also has 4 of the low scores...

 

1st - Westfield 2003

5th - Stephen F Austin 2002

8th - The Woodlands 2002

10th - Winston Churchill 2002

[CTJBandPops]

Texas also has 4 of the low scores...

 

1st - Westfield 2003

5th - Stephen F Austin 2002

8th - The Woodlands 2002

10th - Winston Churchill 2002

I love your analysis - but you are just a bundle of joy today 

[Nny14]

Texas also has 4 of the low scores...

 

1st - Westfield 2003

5th - Stephen F Austin 2002

8th - The Woodlands 2002

10th - Winston Churchill 2002

3 of them from 2002. A low year for scores.

[SpartanBandAlum]

Since we’re talking scores and statistics, I found it interesting that 7 of the 15 programs with the highest music scores at Nats are from Texas, including 3 of the top 5. (When talking about each band’s personal best scores, not the top 15 scores ever achieved)

[TWHSParent]

3 of them from 2002. A low year for scores.

 

The lowest since 1998, and it isn't even particularly close - almost a point lower than 2012 and 1999 average across all 12 finalists.

[aspenmoonlight]

My son is hoping to go to Grand Nats finals to root on #TeamTexas. By coincidence, he'll be in Indy with the Nebraska Percussion Ensemble at PASIC, which overlaps with Grand Nats, and has a concert Saturday morning (plus one on Friday at some high school named ... Carmel .... I think that name rings a bell). He has to choose between the PASIC closing concert and Grand Nats, and is leaning heavily toward the latter, but is trying to get some fellow Ensemble members to go with him. No surprise that as a Flower Mound alum his #1 rooting choice will be Hebron.

My son will be at PASIC too! He’s with Granbury High School’s percussion ensemble.

[abtwitch]

I think Carmel, Avon, Homestead, Vandegrift, Leander, Hebron, CTJ, The Woodlands, and Round Rock will all solidly be in finals.

 

After that, the last 3 spots are up in the air. I would've had William Mason in as a lock, as they were a finalist last year, but they haven't participated in BOA at all this year. I do think they have a higher chance of making it in than the others I'm about to list:

 

Big ol' bubble for the last 3-

William Mason

Union

Fishers

Ayala

Lawrence Township

Center Grove

Marian Catholic

North Hardin

Centerville

Park Vista

Harrison

Mason is having an incredible season from what I've heard, akin to their 2016 season when they medaled at Nationals. Definitely a lock and will be fighting for top 6 and potentially even a medal upset. 

[Rubisco]

Mason is having an incredible season from what I've heard, akin to their 2016 season when they medaled at Nationals. Definitely a lock and will be fighting for top 6 and potentially even a medal upset. 

 

I haven't seen Mason yet, but I've heard nothing but good things. Also, they're Wes Cartwright's horse in the race this year, since Broken Arrow isn't going, so you know they'll be pulling out all the stops.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic that one of the Texas groups will be able to bring the Eagle home on the strength of the music captions, but it will be very difficult. Avon has an all-around outstanding production this year, and Carmel, while not in top form at the Indianapolis Super Regional musically, still managed to edge out Avon in ensemble visual performance and visual effect -- a testament to their wonderful drill. I do think that groups like Vandegrift and Hebron are going to Nationals with stronger visual programs than you would have expected from them just a few years ago. Hopefully it's enough!

[BandFan59]

Avon's coming with one of their best shows in years, and Carmel IS the 3 time reigning GN champs, so they shouldn't be counted out. I have Vandegrift coming out on top, but it's going to be a tough competition. Hebron still has a chance too.

[natertater21000]

I'm biased I know but I think the numbers speak for themselves.

 

I really think leander has an excellent shot at both the podium and the eagle. In both rounds of SA they were second in GE (only.3!!! Behind Reagan in pre lims and equal to vandegrift in finals). This puts leander in a prime position imo. Clearly among the top in design, just slightly behind in performance captions (multiple places but only a few tenths.)

 

They have no doubt been cleaning every tiny detail this week and will continue to do so until the very end. I personally believe that if leander can perform close enough to the level of vandy/hebron musically and Avon visually that the show design will take care of the rest.

 

I could easily see leander winning with something like 3rd in music, 3rd in visual, and 1st in GE. Margins will be razor thin so it's anyone's game. Exciting stuff!

[BenedictCucumberpatch]

We are 6 days out, so I will lay out my predictions for the Texas Takeover.

 

Music: Vandegrift

Visual: Vandegrift

General Effect: TWHS/Leander

 

1. Vandegrift

2. Avon

3. The Woodlands

4. Leander

5. Carmel

6. Hebron

7. CTJ

8. William Mason

9. Homestead

10. Round Rock

11. Ayala

12. Union

 

I still see TWHS as a sleeper pick for the eagle. Obviously the likely outcome is Vandegrift coming away with the eagle, with both Hebron and Leander in the hunt as well, but I see TWHS surprising a lot of people. And maybe if it isn't the Eagle, I see them breaking top 3. TWHS has always been the type to make insane improvements the last couple weeks of the season, and for the first time in a while, there is almost a two week gap between BOA SA and Grand Nats. I have a strong feeling that TWHS will be taking advantage of that 10 fold. If cleaned up well, their show could be a GE monster.  

 

I also see Ayala returning to Finals this year, or at least being the first band out of finals.

 

I was really hoping to have 5 TX bands in the top 6 this year, but you just can't count out Carmel and Avon. However, (and someone please correct me on this if I'm wrong), we could be seeing the first time where all Texas bands that attend Grand Nats make finals. 

 

I really wish I could be able to attend Grand Nats this year, but college takes priority, even if Indy is only an hour away ugh. GO TEXAS.

[LostChoirGuy]

Last year all Texas bands made finals, technically. (Just Prosper)

 

There might have been other years like that as well.

[principalagent]

Last year all Texas bands made finals, technically. (Just Prosper)

 

There might have been other years like that as well.

2013, 2012, 2005, 2004, 2003

[BenedictCucumberpatch]

Ah, I figured it had happened before.

[crossblue82]

I am really hoping Leander will medal as a past Leander band member.  I don't think there is any question they will dominate the AAA class again.  I do think they are in contention and a dark horse for the Eagle.  Avon is a lock for a medal in my opinion, this doesn't mean I think they are for sure the winners, it's just that I think they are the favorite and I can't imagine them being out of the top 3.  If Leander can place ahead of the Texas contingent that they did in San Antonio they have a great shot.  This would still mean they'd have to place above Carmel and Mason if Vandy maintains their edge.  The reason I think Leander will medal and have an outside chance is the fact they should get very good GE scores.  Obviously if they can win GE then that always bodes well.  I think Avon and Leander will be the top two in GE.  Leander probably won't win music, maybe an outside shot at visual but if their scoring margins are close to the other top groups in these captions that is where the GE will come into play.  I think and I hope that the medalists are Avon, Vandegrift and Leander.  Obviously Hebron, CTJ, Woodlands, Mason will have something to say about that as well.  This is really very cliche to say but I think it might even be more true with this national finals than most in recent memory...I honestly think a lot of what happens in finals is going to come down to simply how well was that performance?  I think any of the top 5-6 groups could be 1-6 merely based off of how that run goes for them because I'm sure the scoring will be quite close.  Sometimes I think regardless of the strength of a run through it is implied that one group is superior to another but it may just very well be that whoever has the magic working that evening has the upper hand.  It is interesting with this two week gap as a lot of significant movement can happen.  We have seen big changes from Indy/SA to Grand Nats before in less time so that will be an interesting aspect this year to keep an eye on.  I wish every group the best of luck and am hoping that Texas can take this down.