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meanwhile at timber 2018 seniors missing out on state marching contest due to a tie breaker. continuing the streak of alternate every area appearance since school opening

Based on the results from the Birdville contest, I'm revising my prediction slightly. Still going with Heritage and Summit advancing but the battle is for those two final spots with some really deserving bands missing out. I don't think Richland is a lock any more. Azle's result at Birdville was really impressive and they're goooood. And Aledo being right there with Azle and winning the music caption bodes well for them. Richland needs to work on their closer this week but that show is high energy and impressive. If you pin me down now, these are the schools fighting it out for the last two spots. Azle Aledo Richland Burleson Centennial My concern about Azle is that performance time...being the first band to perform can be tough. Best of luck to all!!

Saturday, October 23rd - Gupton Stadium 9:00 - Veteran's Memorial 9:15 - Tivy 9:30 - Jefferson 9:45 - Liberty Hill 10:00 - Medina Valley 10:15 - Burbank 10:45 - Champion 11:00 - Legacy 11:15 - Glenn 11:30 - C.C. Winn 11:45 - Leander 12:00 - Harlandale 1:15 - Southwest 1:30 - Marble Falls 1:45 - Cedar Park 2:00 - McCollum 2:15 - Rouse 2:30 - Edison 2:45 - Southside 6:00 - First Finalist 7:30 - Last Finalist

My bad, someone had said that Gonzales HS had gotten a 1 at Regional, but they didn't, so I had counted them

I haven't seen much from Westlake this year. I'd need to see it to believe it though if Brandeis were to beat them. I'd be all for it. It'd be huge for NISD. This feels like a stronger season for Del Río and a weaker season for most other NISD schools that normally do well in finals. That's why I personally think Del Río will come out around 6th.

There are 29 bands that qualified, but I think Kennedale's spot still counts, even if they opt out.

Bad judge rule. Someone would have to dig up the exact ordinals but essentially Leander was ranked 3rd by two music judges and 3rd by 1 visual judge so they qualified to state based on this fact alone. Any band that gets a 3rd or higher from two music judges and one visual judge also qualifies to state and Leander fit that criteria. Leander finished 1 point below Westlake, so they didn’t tie but Leander still advanced.

I believe because 3rd and 4th has tied so they are taking 4 bands. This year they are taking 4 with the amount of bands that got 1st division. Hope that helped

What about @abtwitch’s spreadsheet? Does that help at all? ?

I would love to get 5A also, but would need some help with sourcing the schedules/participant lists

My bad, they entered incorrectly on Texas Music Forms.

Yes I absolutely would love to have seen a fourth spot open. 19! So close!!

Flo Mo, Hebron, and Marcus are for all practical purposes state locks. Other spots are a tossup between Wylie, McKinney, John Horn, Plano East, Prosper, and Sachse. Any combination could happen

Got the chance to see Flower Mound in person last night. From what I saw, I think they have a bit more planned for the vocal soloists from the tuba feature. I hadn’t noticed it before (possibly due to only seeing videos until now) but that group of five or so marchers spend the rest of the show without instruments. They still have their own drill and choreography though. In general they’re sounding pretty good, /very/ loud.

I came back here to talk about Broken Arrow again. You all should watch the video with the costumes and colored props. GORGEOUS show. I don't see anything topping this at Nationals right now. I bet this ends up being my favorite show of theirs, which is saying a lot.

Area H is guaranteed to take 4, all 23 bands got a 1 at region. I actually think there’s a decent chance we’ll see bad judge rule in Area A. Permian will likely sweep and then it’ll be very close between the likes of Pebble Hills, Eastlake, and maybe Coronado.

Awesome news for Allen. They missed out Area last cycle because of some timing issues at region. Great news to see them get to advance this year.

I hope they still do area finals, to see how they place, get feedback, etc. Even if they skip state. This is not the normal rotation for 6a bands, after all.

All the Region 25 bands received a one. For 6A that is Plano, Plano East and West. Allen and Wylie. I believe all the 5A schools did as well.

I have to disagree...and, trust me, I'm not a dad at one of these powerhouse programs. I've been through really nice highs and some bone-crushing lows and rebuilds with this band. I don't know which bands your referencing but take a look at a few programs. LD Bell for instance. They have had success for decades...in 2007, they won Grand Nats, they've won State, they're always in contention at every competition. In 2016, they finished 16th at BOA San Antonio and in 2017, they finished 15th! It...was...stunning to those who have watched band for years. I have no idea what happened those years but obviously they had to rebuild something...now they're back and are awesome just like they were before. Marcus had been State champs for years until Hebron, FloMo and others came along. Marcus is still fantastic but they're not the automatic champs they used to be. And to their credit, Marcus and Bell didn't just sit back and say "Welp...that's it. We're done...we'll just have to be happy with 4th or 5th or just making finals." They retooled and make the other bands beat them...sometime they win, sometimes they don't. Haltom's another example. Haltom doesn't have nearly the resources that other schools have and 10-15 years ago, they weren't the program they currently are. Now, they are mentioned as a lock virtually every year. Their success has been building, though, for years and they're set to be contenders for the foreseeable future. My point is, please don't mistake success/hard work for bias. There's a reason Keller, FloMo, Marcus and Hebron are where they are...these schools haven't always been juggernauts. They have a system and program size that allows them to pick from the top players...many schools (like ours) don't have that. Is that fair? Well...yeah. This success didn't happen overnight. It was started many years ago and takes dedication from not only the kids, but the staff from the head director down to the techs. But it's not just that...these bands work hard at the middle school level to drum up excitement and talent for when these kids advance to HS. That kind of support system is absolutely vital to the success of these top bands. I know that sometimes it feels like David vs Goliath but, in this scenario, Goliath wins every time. But many times, the parents take these things harder than the kids. We desperately want success for our kids but band isn't just about success and failure. All the best!

Oh noooo! I don't even wanna predict the toughest contest ever!!!

This right here. Saying that it's preordained does a disservice to the hard work that students in every program put in day after day. It's true that the top 4-6 bands in the metroplex hasn't changed much in the last 8 years or so, but that's because those same 4-6 bands have also gotten BETTER. FloMo, Hebron, Marcus, Keller, Coppell etc. today are WAY better than FloMo, Hebron, Marcus, Keller, Coppell, etc. from 10 years ago. To catch them, a program has to make a huge leap. Waxahachie and Prosper are great examples. Both were smaller 5A bands not too long ago, and with hard work and great community support they made the big leap and have been SMC Finalists and GN Finalists respectively. It can be done!

Now that it looks like only 5 bands advance, I'll take a swing at this one. First 4 Advancing to State (in alpha order) Bell - COVID or not, this is a really good band. Great music, well taught, and a culture that knows how to make it happen. They move well, their guard is wonderful, and they have a show that is enjoyable to watch. Bell will be near the top of the area. Coppell - They are moving better than they have, and simply have too many great musicians on the field. Their show is pretty woodwind heavy, but as long as it's clean they should have no problem advancing. They have an experienced staff, and a great community supporting them. Director changes are always tough, but the members at Coppell are pros. See you in San Antonio Coppell! Keller - They have been a finalist at every show they have attended since 2015. Local shows, regionals, super regionals, 6A State, Grand Nationals. Every one. If the improvement we saw from HEB to the DFW Regional is any indication, they are just now hitting their stride. Their show is incredibly hard, but their reputation for peaking at exactly the right time is well-earned. With a clean show and one of the top brass sections you will find anywhere, they should easily advance and could find themselves as the favorites to come out on top in Area B. Waxahachie - Don't let the results at BOA DFW fool you... these guys are good. Let's not forget they were a state FINALIST in 2018, and won* this area last time around. Their show is definitely more UIL-friendly, and with no shortage of great musicians they will likely find themselves headed to state yet again. Spot No. 5 contenders: Carroll: They have some great momentum coming off of their first BOA Finals appearance. They've got a cool show, and are clearly building a solid program. They've been ahead of perennial Area Runner-Up Timber Creek two weeks in a row. Likely the front-runner for spot No. 5 at this point. Timber Creek: For the last decade, Timber Creek has been the first band out in Area finals. Surely at some point their luck is going to change right? This is the best show that TC has done in a long time, led by their WGI finalist percussion section. They have nice feature moments for nearly every section, and the sax ensemble in the opening is fantastic! As menioned above, they've been just behind SLC the first two weeks out, so let's see what they can do leading up to Area. Duncanville: Want to talk about history? The first SMC was held in 1979, and Duncanville was there. The only years they have not been there were 1982 and last year due to COVID. Only Sundown HS has more appearances at the SMC. Their very recent history as well as early season results may lead you to believe that they may be on the outside looking in this year, but counting them out entirely is foolish. Keller Central: They are one of the smaller bands in Area B this year, but consistently have creative and unique shows and this one is no exception. If they can be really, really clean they have a good shot at upsetting some of the larger groups and grabbing that last spot. Lake Highlands: Do not underestimate this group. They won their opening show this year in Midlothian, and their new director is the same person that turned Highland Park into a 5A powerhouse. They have great players, and I expect that they will show up to play at Area. Yeah, that's 9 bands for 5 spots and only 10 bands make finals. I'm sure this will change in the days leading up to the contest. There may be other areas that are more "top-heavy", but this has to be the most competitive area in the state this year. There are plenty of others that didn't get listed here that are finalist contenders, and if you make finals at this show you've got a shot to advance with a great run.

I can't believe no one has picked Martin. Mansfield's pretty good too. I'm really disappointed in Grand Prairie. I'm sure there's a reason, But I was rooting for them.

It's called gerrymandering. ?

You forget this is the TXBands forum where Texas bias is more allowed than other places ? I'm a bit more confident in Texas taking at least 2 medals. I think this Texas group is stronger than the 2019 group that took 2 medals, and I'm not convinced Avon/Carmel's shows are strong enough to hold this group off the podium. BA is obviously the wild card, need to see a better video of that show before placing it. Musically, ABC is gonna have a tough time breaking the top 3. And then I think visually this is probably some of the more impressive visual packages Texas has sent recently...I think Reagan's visual design is and has been extremely impactful, FM is pretty close behind (and is a GE monster), and the Woodlands is bringing a guard that (while maybe not Avon level yet) is truly elite. I think Vandy and Hebron kind of popped the visual bubble in 2019, taking 2nd and 3rd in visual, with relatively tame visual packages. The difference with this years groups is that I think they have the VGE to backup competitive visual scores. And i haven't even mentioned CTJ and Marcus yet... Consider me optimistic that this will be a big year for TX bands.

Flower Mound has put themselves in Eagle contention for me after yesterday. I wasn't sold on this being a Grand Nationals winning show, but after seeing the closer on the field I think they're up there as contenders with Reagan, Broken Arrow, and Carmel.

FloMo’s opener is spectacular, hard agree on that. The direction and the way the tone continually changes as it continues kinda like what you’d expect from Dr. Suess, the very beginning reminding me of Hebron 2019 with the warmth of the flute opening and narration, but just more interactive as Hebron’s known to already be pretty much in their first drill set prior to playing. And then the band starts popping up from the backfield with the music taking a hard turn very much reminiscent of BD for sure. Great playing from the pit and then the ever so glorious warm opening hit, very well done from flo-mo, I think they’re gonna force themselves into medal contention at Nats. With how well they go about preparation, many saying how much they’ve already improved, i think it has more legs than our other Team Texas shows, except probably CTJ and that’s saying a lot?

Gonna follow up raydurs and do what i did for heb. 1. Flower mound: I could genuinely write an essay on how good the opener is alone. Nationals will definitely be interesting. I have never seen an entire audience give a standing ovation the way they did flo mo last night. People started standing before the show had ended and when it did literally everyone was on their feet. The show design and music is definitely giving me a blue devils 2014 type vibe. When this show is fully cleaned they’re going to be unstoppable. Tho I felt their score should’ve been more towards 88-89 range it was still a darn high score. Easily my favorite show of the year, I’m so glad I got tickets to nationals. Off to buy some flo mo band swag! 2. Hebron: Definitely deserved 2nd and if flo mo had happened to have a bad run they could’ve even taken 1st. That soprano soloist in the ballad is just simply incredible and then the trombone feature/alto bone solo in the closer? Definitely gonna be top 4 at sa imo. If not top 4 top 5 for sure. It was no surprise to me at all when they won music. Can’t wait to see the last little bit of their closer on the field. 3. Marcus: I honestly feel like their heb marching finals run was better. They were definitely cleaner last night but the energy in their opener was lacking a bit to me. The gasp when they tied with flo mo for visual was pretty funny honestly. What can I say? Marcus visuals are clean! And they’re only going to get cleaner! And that applies to everything else that has to do with the show. It’s clean, but only going to get better. I absolutely love the new mello soloists costumes, makes total sense with the prop colors. They keep going the way they’ve been, they’re going to do great later in the season. 4. Keller: Feel like they should’ve placed lower than coppell or even bell. Their show is sooooo hard but it’s dirty. It’s much improved since heb so they been putting that work in, but it’s not quite where it needs to be. Definitely think with waxahachie not making finals that gives us a sign that keller has a chance at winning area this year. I feel like one of the biggest issues i’m having watching keller is i’m not really feeling musicality, all just shred shred shred shred and barely anything moving. That’s not to say their opener isn’t musically because the dynamic control from those first few notes the ensemble plays is really nice. If they get this show nice and cleaned they’re gonna be right back in sa finals and state finals. 5. Coppell: well what a step up for them! Not the biggest fan of the show theme or the music but the visual effect that comes from the very end of the show? It’s so good. They really have a shot for a medal at stl. Not only a medal at stl but maybe a spot in sa finals? They still play like coppell and it seems to me that they’re moving a lot better now too. Their new director is seriously doing some stuff with them now. Great job coppell and good luck at stl. 6. Ld bell: my former band director at bell once told us all after the 2019 season that “we are like the roach from wall e, nothing can kill us” and that kind of clicked last night. Bell has seemingly struggled all season and as an alum it was so good to see them still in the top half after the the last year and half. I think they have a shot for state this year if they reaaaaallly clean. I can’t wait to see their closer on the field, ive heard it’s their best movement this year. Great job blue raiders! 7. Wakeland: Prelims seemed iffy for them, finals tho? Man they were awesome. This show will be very very good when state comes around. I really like that there isn’t a lot of props but their drill makes up for it. I also like how they’re not shredding 24/7 in this show and yet still place this well. Easy and clean over difficult and dirty any day. Not saying their show is easy by any means but compared to the music that say timber creek or lone star is playing it’s relatively easier. I think they’ll get top 3 at state again this year, excellent showing from them the last 2 weeks. 8. Southlake Carroll: I like the new ending a lot, but I am a guy that likes soft ending shows. The show definitely needs some tidying up before st. louis, but I think they can handle that. This group got 12th in prelims and then rose up to 8th in finals. Quite the jump if you ask me. Wishing the carroll band good luck on their trip to stl! 9. Timber creek: Much improved since heb and they have their ballad now! Maybe this will be the year they qualify for state? Who knows. Great performance tc. 10. Lone star: Mkay, there’s gonna be some bloodshed at 5A state. I graduated from bell so I had mostly paid attention to the big 6a groups rather than the 5a’s. Was surprised to hear they made finals but when they did their finals run i was more surprised on how much better it was! Excited to see them in the future, def on the rise. 11. Forney: that moment at the end where the drum major picks up the bow and shoots it as the band finishes is such a unique part of their show. Definitely a step up for forney this year, congrats. 12. Aledo: definitely entertaining, if i’m not mistaken this is aledo’s first time in dfw finals in quite some time. Congrats to them, definitely deserved.

Keller is going to State. Period. Take it to the bank.