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2018 BOA San Antonio?


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This is my 11th year as a Leander Band Dad and attending this SA Super Regional.  I have always loved the spirit of teamwork and genuine desire from all to see all programs do well.  Even though our youngest has experienced more success lately with the program than his older siblings, I remember all too well how it felt when we never knew if we were going to make finals.  Being part a "bubble band" for several years has helped me appreciate what a privilege it is to make finals regularly.  In addition, it allows me to appreciate what all the band parents are feeling this weekend.  I hope everyone does well and has a great experience with their kiddos.  I love being a "Band Dad" and enjoy the community that we are all part of.

Agreed, the Teamwork among the students, parents, staff etc... is amazing for Band Programs.   Got to love this example (see video link) of teamwork from Vista Ridge about the Silver Band members who don't have a Marching Spot in the show but are critical components of the show and the Band, can't do it without the full team!  

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Agreed, the Teamwork among the students, parents, staff etc... is amazing for Band Programs.   Got to love this example (see video link) of teamwork from Vista Ridge about the Silver Band members who don't have a Marching Spot in the show but are critical components of the show and the Band, can't do it without the full team!  

 

Hey, can I just give MAJOR props to the person who puts out these AMAZING Vista Ridge Ranger Band videos every week?  These things are masterpieces in and of themselves!  

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Gosh I've been making so many predictions (I swear this is the last one  :P )

 

1. Ronald Reagan

2. Claudia Taylor Johnson

3. Flowermound

4. Woodlands

5. Vista Ridge

6. Hebron

7. Vandegrift

8. Keller

9. James Bowie

10. Leander

11. Marcus

12. Cedar Park

13. Coppell/Cedar Ridge/Hendrickson

14. Coppell/Cedar Ridge/Hendrickson

15. Coppell/Cedar Ridge/Hendrickson

16. Timber Creek/LD Bell/Prosper

17. LD Bell/Timber Creek/Prosper

18. Prosper/LD Bell/Timber Creek

19. Seven Lakes/Pearland/Oak Ridge

20. Pearland/Oak Ridge/Seven Lakes

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Agreed, the Teamwork among the students, parents, staff etc... is amazing for Band Programs.   Got to love this example (see video link) of teamwork from Vista Ridge about the Silver Band members who don't have a Marching Spot in the show but are critical components of the show and the Band, can't do it without the full team!  

I love that they recognized them!  These band members usually are forgotten and they all work their butts off!  And the best part is the other band member recognizing them.  It warms my heart.

 

I am proud to be associated with Vista, a band with a great spirit and a warm heart.

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Final Panel Predictions----

 

 

 

--(Adjudication Panel 1)--

“Locks”:

Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

Hebron H.S., TX

 

“Advance outright bubble”:

Leander H.S., TX

Keller H.S., TX

Hendrickson H.S., TX

----------------------------

Cedar Park H.S., TX

Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

Westlake H.S., TX

LD Bell H.S., TX

 

“Potential upsets to finals advancers”:

Round Rock H.S., TX

Timber Creek H.S., TX

Smithson Valley H.S., TX

Clear Brook H.S., TX

T.W. College Park H.S., TX

Lehman H.S., TX

 

 

--(Adjudication Panel 2)--

“Locks”:

Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

Flower Mound H.S., TX

 

“Advance outright bubble”:

The Woodlands H.S., TX

Vandegrift H.S., TX

Vista Ridge H.S., TX

---------------------------------

James Bowie H.S., TX

Marcus H.S., TX

 

“Potential upsets to finals advancers”:

Pearland H.S., TX

Winston Churchill H.S., TX

Oak Ridge H.S., TX

Coppell H.S., TX

Westwood H.S., TX

Jack C. Hays H.S., TX

Seven Lakes H.S., TX  

Prosper H.S., TX / New Braunfels H.S., TX (Can’t choose between)

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Final Finalist Predictions :

Advance Outright---

Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

Hebron H.S., TX

Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

Flower Mound H.S., TX

Keller H.S., TX

Hendrickson H.S., TX

Leander H.S., TX

The Woodlands H.S., TX

Vandegrift H.S., TX

Vista Ridge H.S., TX

 

Next 4 Advancement--

Cedar Park H.S., TX

James Bowie H.S., TX

Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

Marcus H.S., TX

 

Fighting to take a spot from the next 4-

Westlake H.S., TX

LD Bell H.S., TX

Round Rock H.S., TX

Timber Creek H.S., TX

Pearland H.S., TX

Winston Churchill H.S., TX

Oak Ridge H.S., TX

Coppell H.S., TX

Westwood H.S., TX

Haltom H.S., TX 

Jack C. Hays H.S., TX

Seven Lakes H.S., TX  

Prosper H.S., TX

New Braunfels H.S., TX

Smithson Valley H.S., TX

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I would love to see Seven Lakes jump into the mix this year.  I saw them in McAllen and met some of their Road crew as well.  Great up and coming band.  There is so much talent this year and the bands are all so close.  It is going to come down to who is "ON" the most.  I just wish I could watch more bands but Crew duties call and those trucks don't load themselves.  Best of luck to everybody participating this weekend (and on Monday-Wednesday)!!  Yell for all the kids when they take the field....and be sure to give the road crew some love too.  Stadium rehearsal calls!!!  

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You can alter the URL on HornRank to see the updated list. Just change the day to 30 and add 1 to the week.

 

Edit: https://www.hornrank.com/2018/10/top-30-rankings-oct-30-2018-week-7.html?m=1

this is the lowest # of Texas bands I have seen in the top 30 in years - only 14 of the 30 spots

 

should be some big mix ups after this weekend and again the following week with both 6A state and Gts

 

I wonder if UIL state will impact next week with BOA as 6A will be decided on Tuesday night and this week we did not see results until Wednesday night as apposed to Tuesday

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So I noticed that The Woodlands is now #13 after winning area F. I’ve seen their show and know for a fact that it is a killer. Is there something I’m missing? Or does HornRank believe that just because they placed 11nth last year their suddenly never going to be top 7.

HornRank isn't very transparent about what statistical model(s) they use to arrive at their rankings. All I know is that they weigh BOA placements more than state (UIL, ISSMA) results. I noticed Waxahachie in the "Next 10," so Area results were obviously considered, but it's unclear to what extent.

 

HornRank is an ambitious project, but it relies pretty heavilly on indirect comparisons, so I wouldn't sweat it too much.

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This is truly a year of change in so many ways with major jumps and drops in predictions. For instance, we have a 2017 Grand National finalist that is no longer ranked in the top 40 bands on Hornrank. The rankings are speculation at this point, so they may not really mean anything at all, but I find it amazing that even the perceptions of change are so radical. I wonder what we will all be thinking/feeling next Wednesday?

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I wonder if UIL state will impact next week with BOA as 6A will be decided on Tuesday night and this week we did not see results until Wednesday night as apposed to Tuesday

Don't count on it. The guys clearly enjoy watching UIL competitions but in the past have just as clearly stated their concerns regarding the variation in judging.

 

HornRank isn't very transparent about what statistical model(s) they use to arrive at their rankings. All I know is that they weigh BOA placements more than state (UIL, ISSMA) results. I noticed Waxahachie in the "Next 10," so Area results were obviously considered, but it's unclear to what extent.

HornRank is an ambitious project, but it relies pretty heavilly on indirect comparisons, so I wouldn't sweat it too much.

HornRank's Top 30 and Next Ten is openly about BOA. My understanding is the algorithm either almost or completely ignores UIL, and similar state or regional organizations. However, individual contributors do go to those competitions to stay current as the season progresses, making their own judgements regarding how the bands are improving and how they would fair under BOA standards. These judgements can be reflected in the raw data they submit to the algorithm. So while it is possible, the affect of Area or State would be indirect and very likely limited.

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Don't count on it. The guys clearly enjoy watching UIL competitions but in the past have just as clearly stated their concerns regarding the variation in judging.

 

 

HornRank's Top 30 and Next Ten is openly about BOA. My understanding is the algorithm either almost or completely ignores UIL, and similar state or regional organizations. However, individual contributors do go to those competitions to stay current as the season progresses, making their own judgements regarding how the bands are improving and how they would fair under BOA standards. These judgements can be reflected in the raw data they submit to the algorithm. So while it is possible, the affect of Area or State would be indirect and very likely limited.

I would have to think that the UIL Area D had an impact with CTJ/Reagan swapping spots in the ranking and the only head to head they have had all year was the recent UIL competition, but with BOA SA starting in a day, it will all be flushed out over the weekend. it will be interesting to see the changes - we know that there will be an impact based on BOA SA - so time will tell if the UIL State will impact those again - especially with only 1 band performing at GNats this year. 

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