2019 BOA San Antonio

[A Testing Trumpet]

Marcus wasn’t even mentioned

I had them on my list, formatting must have been weird there  . I had them in the upper bubble with The Woodlands, Keller, Westwood, L.D. Bell, and Cedar Park.  (Also that's why it says 6)

[youcansound]

Locks (if they don’t make it the apocalypse is confirmed):

Hebron

Leander

Vandegrift

Claudia Taylor Johnson

Flower Mound

Ronald Reagan

 

They’ll Most Likely Make it

Keller

Marcus

The Woodlands

Cedar Ridge

 

 

Slightly lower but wouldn’t be surprised at all if they made it mid-tier:

Vista Ridge

L.D Bell

Coppell

Cedar Park

Westlake

Lake Travus

Westwood

 

Could be left out of finals but still have a good shot:

Rouse

Hendrickson

Round Rock

Vista Murietta

Clear Brook

James Bowie

Weiss

 

They have a real chance of making finals if they make some improvements:

John B Alexander

Oak Ridge

Pearland

Timber Creek

 

Anything’s possible at this contest with a lot of improvements can sneak into finals people should be paying attention to these a bit more:

Brandeis

Glenn

Obra D.Tompkins

McNeil

[LeanderMomma]

After the surprises in Austin, DFW and Houston, I feel like we could have more than one new band in finals this year. Who will it be?!!

[Guest]

 

Hate might be a bit strong of a word? More like reality check.

I think his list was definetely slated in reality, just hard to not make a few mistakes when making a list that big.

[A Testing Trumpet]

Also Leander and Vista Ridge are both as definite of locks as CTJ and Hebron and it’s a little bit silly to suggest otherwise.

I agree with you for the most part, and can absolutely see how those programs could be considered as locks; I just personally think "Locks" in BOA San Antonio would mean a program has been in the upper echelon of finals there the past few years consistently, and their season so far is on track for that continued success. Leander is set up to do very well at San Antonio and it would be pretty strange to see them out of it. That said, they were 14th in finals 2 years ago in a similar environment to this year. Vista Ridge had a breakout year last year, and while things this year absolutely point to that being maintained, I can't consider them quite as much as a lock as the programs in the tier above who have all consistently been in the top of the regional in the last few years. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely think both will be in finals. They are exceptional programs that do amazing things. If this was a few years ago I would put them as a lock easily. That being said the absurdity of BOA San Antonio 2017 / 2018 (90's or higher to just make finals!) makes it difficult to say anyone without that consistency is really a lock for me. It all comes down to personal feelings of course, and once again I really do think both of them will make it pretty easily. It's simply a matter of caution I suppose, since as a performer myself in 2017 I've come to respect this Super Regional for how crazy it can truly be. 

[TWHSParent]

It is a little eye opening to watch the replays on Flo without sound. Focus on the visual program. I am forming some contrary opinions based on what I am seeing, at least visually. Just a note, going to keep opinions to myself, as there are many unfinished shows.

[youcansound]

 

I agree with you for the most part, and can absolutely see how those programs could be considered as locks; I just personally think "Locks" in BOA San Antonio would mean a program has been in the upper echelon of finals there the past few years consistently, and their season so far is on track for that continued success. Leander is set up to do very well at San Antonio and it would be pretty strange to see them out of it. That said, they were 14th in finals 2 years ago in a similar environment to this year. Vista Ridge had a breakout year last year, and while things this year absolutely point to that being maintained, I can't consider them quite as much as a lock as the programs in the tier above who have all consistently been in the top of the regional in the last few years. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely think both will be in finals. They are exceptional programs that do amazing things. If this was a few years ago I would put them as a lock easily. That being said the absurdity of BOA San Antonio 2017 / 2018 (90's or higher to just make finals!) makes it difficult to say anyone without that consistency is really a lock for me. It all comes down to personal feelings of course, and once again I really do think both of them will make it pretty easily. It's simply a matter of caution I suppose, since as a performer myself in 2017 I've come to respect this Super Regional for how crazy it can truly be.

I agree because I am also worried that Vista Ridge has a lack of competition for the whole of the rest of the season! They’re going to the Midland instead of TMC? And then no contests except for SA. It worries that their feedback won’t be enough to lean on!

[youcansound]

Vista Ridge is one of my favorite programs though! Haha! You bet I will watch the perform at the Midland! I love the idea behind show!

[Samuel Culper]

I agree because I am also worried that Vista Ridge has a lack of competition for the whole of the rest of the season! They’re going to the Midland instead of TMC? And then no contests except for SA. It worries that their feedback won’t be enough to lean on!

On the other hand, they got feedback from a very experienced panel at the Vista Ridge Marching Festival last night, they will get feedback from a panel of BOA judges in Midland, regardless of the competition and they have had and continue to have a series of clinicians work with them over the course of the season. They have already made significant changes from what they showed at BOA Austin just a week ago.

 

Let's just say I don't share your concerns. Not in the slightest.

[LeanderMomma]

I think his list was definetely slated in reality, just hard to not make a few mistakes when making a list that big.

Sorry that my eye roll caused such a fuss!

[LeanderMomma]

No, I get what y’all are saying. Longevity definitely has more pull than more recent success.

 

I really am excited to see new faces in finals tho I certainly hope Leander isn’t left out. This year especially.

[Stefen]

Anything’s possible at this contest with a lot of improvements can sneak into finals people should be paying attention to these a bit more:

Brandeis

Glenn

Obra D.Tompkins

McNeil

Brandeis is not going to BOA this year

[LHSax]

While we like to think SA is crazy and unpredictable, if we look at the last 5 years, the results at SA have been generally pretty consistent and relatively predictable given earlier regionals and previous years. With this in mind, I’ll take a slightly different historical look at potential medalists/top-half finalists/finalists, based on past trends. (it’s been a slow morning at work).

 

Notes: Bands color coded by region, out of state bands not included in list.

 

Winners (2)

Flowermound

CTJ

This one is obvious. CTJ and Flowermound have taken turns at the top spot at the podium the last 5 years and it will be tough to wrestle it away from them (particularly after FM’s hot start this year). As always, without direct comparison, there are a few groups who appear to be able to give us a new winner this year. Hebron is still itching for that first title after being close so many times. Reagan’s renaissance still needs a title to complete an amazing comeback story. Vandy has been close in the past and seems primed to challenge for the top spot again this year.

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Medalists (8)

Hebron

Reagan

Vandegrift

Leander

The Woodlands

Bowie

The podium has also been relatively consistent the last 5 years, although there has been some back and forth between these groups between years. While Bowie may not quite be in this group anymore, each of the others are favorites to complete the medal stand this year.  

Breaking through this group to have “new” medalists will be tough. Vista likely has the best long shot depending on what they can do with an interesting vehicle, but the medalists will likely come from the 8 bands above.

 

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Top Half Finalists (11)

Vista Ridge

Marcus

Cedar Park

This is the grouping that’s pretty surprising for me. Only 11 bands have finished in the top half of finals in the past 5 years. Take out the 1 appearance apiece in this group by Bowie and VR, and the 1 spot taken by Avon, and that means 9 bands have taken 32 of the 35 top half spots over the last 5 years. These bands make up the upper echelon for the last half decade, and will be a very tough group to crack into.

I don’t personally see anyone cracking into this group this year, but I’ll give Keller the best shot at doing so. They’ve flirted with the top half for a couple years now and they will certainly hover around the break-line this year again.

 

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Finalists (20)

Keller

Cedar Ridge

Westlake

LD Bell

Round Rock

Hendrickson

Wakeland

Churchill

Cypress Falls

Again, take away the outliers (1 appearance by Wakeland, Churchill and Cypress falls) and you have 17 who have made more than 1 finalist appearance the last 5 years. Each year we tend to get 1 somewhat surprise finalist, but in general, this is once again a pretty exclusive group. The other interesting thing to note is that Houston has 1 finalist appearance besides the Woodlands in the past 5 years, and you have to go back to Spring in 2012 before that to find the next one. Houston bands have consistently hovered on the bubble, but have rarely broken through. Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be a Houston area band this year to break that trend, with 3 of the top 4 spots in the Houston regional going to non-Houston bands.

2 bands jump out to me as groups who can break into the finalist category this year based on early seasons results. Lake Travis and Westwood are the favorites to emerge as new contenders based on Lake Travis surprisingly strong finish in Austin, and Westwood’s confirmed potential in Houston. Vista Murietta will also likely have an outside chance at sneaking in.

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There are obviously a lot of bubble bands, and a lot that could happen in San Antonio, but not nearly as much as we tend to think. There are ebbs and flows over the past 5 years, some have slipped and some have raised their standard, but the trends are there, and the major trend breaker (IE Vista Ridge last year) doesn’t appear to be there this year. But I’ve been wrong before

(Thanks to HornRank for becoming a very useful source for capturing this information...I'm sure there may be an error or 2 in here though)

 

[Magma31651]

 

Here's some completely ridiculous predictions without having even looked at which bands are going. No real order within the groups.

List for October 6th, 2019

 

Finalist locks (5) "I can't see any of them out of finals"

Flower Mound

Ronald Reagan

Hebron

Vandegrift

Claudia Taylor Johnson

 

Finalist likelies (2) "Fathomable these groups could miss, but highly doubtful any actually will"

Leander

Vista Ridge

 

Finalist upper bubble (6) "Understandable one or two of these bands miss, but all are more likely to make then not"

The Woodlands

Keller

Westwood

L.D.Bell

Cedar Park

 

Finalist mid bubble{upper} (7) "Decent shot at finals, but could just as easily be left out"

Cedar Ridge

Westlake

Clear Brook

James Bowie

Pearland

Stephen F. Austin

Lake Travis

 

Finalist mid bubble{lower} (8) "It wouldn't be strange to see these groups in finals, but the competition is stiff"

Hendrickson

Rouse

Timber Creek

Obra D. Tompkins

Round Rock

Seven Lakes

Oak Ridge

Coppell

Wakeland

 

 

Finalist lower bubble (5) "they've got a chance, but most signs point to not quite this season"

James E. Taylor

Prosper

Keller Central

Waxahaxie

Brazoswood

TC and KC had the same score but are put into different categories?

[A Testing Trumpet]

If the list simply took into account 2019, they would be in the same category.

This list does not do this, however. Established trends in history can help give an outline of how things may play out in the future.

 

When looking at BOA San Antonio the past two years, 2017 had TC in 24th and 17th in 2018.

Keller Central was 33rd in 2017 and 30th in 2018.

 

When I look at how BOA DFW played out, and account for how there is still about a month left to the Super Regional; a tie in finals for October isn't quite enough for me to say that come November things will be same, especially considering how their was an appreciable lead in prelims for Timber Creek. 

 

Even so, predictions are not the end all be all. I think both programs have a shot at finals if they really want it and have a great performance. What it really comes down to is how it's performed, not some person's thoughts in early October. 

Even so, my lists are made purely for fun and not meant to be taken super seriously. What should be taken seriously is the skill on display on practice fields and stadiums  . 

[A Testing Trumpet]

How will Westwood stack up against the competition considering they got 3rd at BOA Houston?

It depends how they clean going forwards. They were very strong at Houston the other day, but there is still a lot of time in between now and SA. Success at one competition doesn't equate to the same success at one later down the road. 

It really depends on what they do between now and SA. If they continue down the right track and have focused, productive rehearsals; I think they have it in them to make finals or even break into the top half of finals if they really get into it.

 

Nothing is ever just given though. The effort's gotta be put in by every member, not just when it's the weekend of the Super Regional. Personally I can't wait to see what they have in store for us  . 

[DeepEllum]

For those looking to make predictions...

 

Each year since 2012, the winner of the San Antonio Super Regional has also won a regional that year.

 

2018- FloMo wins Bedford and SA

2017- CTJ wins Midland, Austin, and SA

2016- FloMo wins DFW and SA

2015- FloMo Wins DFW and SA

2014- CTJ wins Conroe and SA

2013- The Woodlands win Houston and SA

2012- Marcus wins DFW and SA

 

 

2011 was the last year the Super Regional Champion (LD Bell) didn’t win a regional but won the Super Regional.

 

(It also happened in 2009, 2008, 2007...)

 

Does this, so far, narrow our possible champions to Vandegrift, Reagan, and FloMo, if trends continue for how they have for a majority of this decade? Or will a nats band like Hebron, Leander, CTJ, or the Woodlands be significantly better by SA and break the streak?

[pearlandtubaDI]

i just want to point out that pearland actually scored 2nd above the woodlands in individual visual at the houston regional i’m just showing some pride in my school

[TWHSParent]

For those looking to make predictions...

 

Each year since 2012, the winner of the San Antonio Super Regional has also won a regional that year.

 

2018- FloMo wins Bedford and SA

2017- CTJ wins Midland, Austin, and SA

2016- FloMo wins DFW and SA

2015- FloMo Wins DFW and SA

2014- CTJ wins Conroe and SA

2013- The Woodlands win Houston and SA

2012- Marcus wins DFW and SA

 

 

2011 was the last year the Super Regional Champion (LD Bell) didn’t win a regional but won the Super Regional.

 

(It also happened in 2009, 2008, 2007...)

 

Does this, so far, narrow our possible champions to Vandegrift, Reagan, and FloMo, if trends continue for how they have for a majority of this decade? Or will a nats band like Hebron, Leander, CTJ, or the Woodlands be significantly better by SA and break the streak?

 

Since it isn't a 100% indicator, it is possible for another program to win. All the programs will be significantly better by SA, and the goals of each program will differ. However, a strong showing at SA is really necessary for those attending GN. Could they win? Sure. Watching the shows from the GN attendees shows they have significant room to grow. They are taking on more challenges as they have the extra 2 weeks to perfect the shows. What will the state be at SA? Don't know, but they must be strong shows by then in order to have a chance at the Eagle.

[BandFan95]

This is going to be a great competition.  Can't wait to watch.

[CTJBandPops]

For those looking to make predictions...

 

Each year since 2012, the winner of the San Antonio Super Regional has also won a regional that year.

 

2018- FloMo wins Bedford and SA

2017- CTJ wins Midland, Austin, and SA

2016- FloMo wins DFW and SA

2015- FloMo Wins DFW and SA

2014- CTJ wins Conroe and SA

2013- The Woodlands win Houston and SA

2012- Marcus wins DFW and SA

 

 

2011 was the last year the Super Regional Champion (LD Bell) didn’t win a regional but won the Super Regional.

 

(It also happened in 2009, 2008, 2007...)

 

Does this, so far, narrow our possible champions to Vandegrift, Reagan, and FloMo, if trends continue for how they have for a majority of this decade? Or will a nats band like Hebron, Leander, CTJ, or the Woodlands be significantly better by SA and break the streak?

 

Since it isn't a 100% indicator, it is possible for another program to win. All the programs will be significantly better by SA, and the goals of each program will differ. However, a strong showing at SA is really necessary for those attending GN. Could they win? Sure. Watching the shows from the GN attendees shows they have significant room to grow. They are taking on more challenges as they have the extra 2 weeks to perfect the shows. What will the state be at SA? Don't know, but they must be strong shows by then in order to have a chance at the Eagle.

I would agree that is no indicator - if we looks at the top 5 at BOA SA and their 2018 season

1. FloMo - won DFW regional that had finals rained out with Hebron just .40 behind them in Prelims

2. Reagan - Won Houston regional

3. Hebron - as noted above was second in DFW with no finals

4. Vista Ridge - had not medaled at a regional - finished 4th - won 6A state

5. CTJ - won McAllen and Austin Regionals but finished 5th

 

I think it comes down to timing the peak of the show at the right time and how a programs plans to polish or enhance that show. There is an advantage to competing in multiple regionals prior to SA as they get input from judges - some of which may judge again at SA or even GNats.

 

I would also agree that this year, having so many strong programs that are going to Indy, they may not be putting everything on the field yet - especially with 2 weeks between SA and Indy. 

 

I recall FloMo with a 13th place in SA in 2014 and 6ths in Indy finals a week later - 

 

I would expect at least 5 of the Texas 6 pack to to be in the top 8 or so in SA and in the top half of finals in Indy.

 

lots of great marching to come in the next 5 weeks

[LHSax]

I can definitely see a scenario like 07 where Texas gets the eagle, but not with the band that wins SA. Marcus actually dominated SA that year, sweeping captions in finals and almost doing so in Prelims, but LD Bell still went on to win at grand nationals. Some may assume that Marcus would've won if they went to Indy that year, but I still think LD Bell added so many layers to that show by Indy (the progressive endings...so bold and powerful) that they may have topped Marcus then. 

[CTJBandPops]

I can definitely see a scenario like 07 where Texas gets the eagle, but not with the band that wins SA. Marcus actually dominated SA that year, sweeping captions in finals and almost doing so in Prelims, but LD Bell still went on to win at grand nationals. Some may assume that Marcus would've won if they went to Indy that year, but I still think LD Bell added so many layers to that show by Indy (the progressive endings...so bold and powerful) that they may have topped Marcus then. 

yes - looking at 2016 - we had 4 Texas Bands in GNATS finals - Cedar Park placed the highest in Indy at Fifth place - even though they had the lowest BOA SA placement of the 4 (9th in BOA SA)

Leander - 3rd in SA - 6th in Indy

Reagan 8th in SA - 7th in Indy

CTJ - 4th in SA - 9th in Indy

 

different judges - week later - 3 performances and the stress of a hectic 4+ days of traveling - a lot of factors that will play into it - including the draw for performance times - it changes with every level. in 2016 Leander was 4th in prelims, 5th in Semi's, 6th in finals - with 2 sets of judges doing prelims, a new set doing semis , and another new set for finals - you never know, but I think Texas will be well represented this year

[LHSbandDad]

yes - looking at 2016 - we had 4 Texas Bands in GNATS finals - Cedar Park placed the highest in Indy at Fifth place - even though they had the lowest BOA SA placement of the 4 (9th in BOA SA)

Leander - 3rd in SA - 6th in Indy

Reagan 8th in SA - 7th in Indy

CTJ - 4th in SA - 9th in Indy

 

different judges - week later - 3 performances and the stress of a hectic 4+ days of traveling - a lot of factors that will play into it - including the draw for performance times - it changes with every level. in 2016 Leander was 4th in prelims, 5th in Semi's, 6th in finals - with 2 sets of judges doing prelims, a new set doing semis , and another new set for finals - you never know, but I think Texas will be well represented this year

I would like to add that Leander, CTJ and Reagan also had to squeeze in 6A State between BOA SA and Indy that year.  Cedar Park did not.  To clarify, that is not Cedar Parks fault and does not take away from their amazing performance in Indy.  I am just pointing out that three competitions and seven performances in eight days was exhausting and I am glad we don't have that scenario again.  Not only do we not have UIL State to deal this year with but we also have the extra week.  Everyone should be rested and ready to dethrone Carmel !!!!

[Nny14]

I would like to add that Leander, CTJ and Reagan also had to squeeze in 6A State between BOA SA and Indy that year. Cedar Park did not. To clarify, that is not Cedar Parks fault and does not take away from their amazing performance in Indy. I am just pointing out that three competitions and seven performances in eight days was exhausting and I am glad we don't have that scenario again. Not only do we not have UIL State to deal this year with but we also have the extra week. Everyone should be rested and ready to dethrone Carmel !!!!

CTJ did not participate in state that year actually.