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Maybe the reactions to Prosper and Keller as to how they’ll do at DFW this coming week have less to do with how they placed at HEB but more on their performances and how solid they were so early on. It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility for either Prosper making top 5 or Keller winning or medaling, as in previous competitions LISD has dominated the top 3 with most of the finals pack being considerably behind them. BOA DFW does have a lot of depth in with all the finalist quality bands that attend, but it does get top heavy at the medalist spots. It got more interesting for sure with Marcus not going this year and they’ve placed in the top three for years now at BOA, Keller’s been gettting better and better for years now and they beat a consistent medalist in Marcus in both prelims and Finals at HEB, and I would fully expect the result to be the same had Marcus gone to DFW this year, and Prosper wasn’t far behind Marcus. Both groups sold me in that they’ll do incredibly well next weekend from their performances alone. I don’t think it’s an overreaction to say that Prosper in particular will do better than people expect, I see them as a finals lock, potential top 5 finalist that I didn’t see them being weeks earlier but their performance sold me.

Fair enough. I realized that and was coming back to edit my comment now that I have recovered from the shock at the hubris required to make that prediction. Instead of editing there I will expand on the comment here.

 

This forum is enjoyable because it is supportive and encouraging to all programs and discourages overly critical comments. On the other hand, I think it can sometime be a bit too tolerant of overly positive hype and predictions. I think the early hype regarding Halton, primarily from people clearly connected to the program, headed into the HEB contest reached the point of unenjoyable ridiculousness before anyone stepped in and asked them to tone it down. Admittedly they did it more gracefully and I will do better next time. This prediction seemed like the same thing getting started with Prosper so I said something. In keeping with the spirit of this forum I should have been less abrupt.

 

Marcus will not be attending BOA DFW so that does leave another spot for Prosper. The judges scores for the HEB contest look more like a friendly debate in a bar than any firm consensus. There are no real outliers and there could be a few mildly inflated opinions based on reputation rather than actual performance but nothing that reaches the point of being offensive or can't be defended and explained as a difference of opinion. Judging is still subjective. It remains to be seen how the next set views the contestants at BOA DFW.

 

HEB was one early contest. Nobody is predicting Keller will now win BOA DFW based on HEB. Making the Top Five at this next contest is a huge challenge. Maybe Prosper makes it. But I'd like to think the etiquette of this forum dictates that unusual prediction originates outside their own Band Boosters.

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Maybe the reactions to Prosper and Keller as to how they’ll do at DFW this coming week have less to do with how they placed at HEB but more on their performances and how solid they were so early on. It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility for either Prosper making top 5 or Keller winning or medaling, as in previous competitions LISD has dominated the top 3 with most of the finals pack being considerably behind them. BOA DFW does have a lot of depth in with all the finalist quality bands that attend, but it does get top heavy at the medalist spots. It got more interesting for sure with Marcus not going this year and they’ve placed in the top three for years now at BOA, Keller’s been gettting better and better for years now and they beat a consistent medalist in Marcus in both prelims and Finals at HEB, and I would fully expect the result to be the same had Marcus gone to DFW this year, and Prosper wasn’t far behind Marcus. Both groups sold me in that they’ll do incredibly well next weekend from their performances alone. I don’t think it’s an overreaction to say that Prosper in particular will do better than people expect, I see them as a finals lock, potential top 5 finalist that I didn’t see them being weeks earlier but their performance sold me.

All that seems reasonable. I was originally a bit shocked by the celebratory hubris of the prediction but quickly recovered. I think my reaction would have been quite different if it had been posted as a question (e.g., Does anyone outside the program now think Prosper has a decent shot at making the Top Five at BOA DFW?) thereby showing some awareness of their own celebratory frame of mind.

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Top two: Hebron and FloMo

Next two: Keller and CP

Prosper’s major threat for 5th place are Bell or Union, both of which have shown some weakness. It’s definitely not a lock, but it’s not unprecedented.

You present a decent case for it. I'm sure Timber Creek wants to make another statement too. Wakeland had a slightly mixed review at HEB and a more favorable set of judges, or a week's more polish, could put them in the running. Coppell has a long history of success and will be working hard. Last year I saw L.D. Bell at a football game a week or two before BOA DFW and was thoroughly unimpressed only to be completely stunned by the speed of their transformation. My point is that while it's tempting to feel some level of confidence about the top few bands, the water quickly gets increasingly more murky as you move down the list. Especially this early in the season when many shows are still in serious transition, not much is written in stone and predictions are notoriously difficult. Just ask the HornRank guys about putting together their Top 30 or BOA previews week after week.
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Hebron is absolutely insane this year. Show feels extremely similar to last year but everything is turned up a few notches. Insane brass tonguing technique. Winds still kindof overshadow the guard. The technicality of this show will blow everyone’s minds. Show is called “Endeavor” and sure as heck is one, holy cow. With that being said I for what ever reason don’t really enjoy Hebron’s shows as much as some of their competitors. I know it’s probably me but that’s just my weird opinion :P.

 

I think everyone will be very...interested...by Flower Mound’s show. That’s all I’ll say.

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Hmm, I'm guessing "they" means the new Director, not necessarily the band kids and parents. Just a thought considering the Director's history versus the history of the Marcus band program. I hope I'm wrong.

“They” was Drinkwater last spring. I’m a parent, and was there, in April, when she announced it. The kids are excited to go to a BOA they’ve never been to before and see bands they don’t regularly see. It has nothing to do with Jones.

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Any eyes on Keller Central? they seem like a big question mark in this impossible-to-sort-out finals bubble

I personally thought their 2017 show was pretty good and was surprised that they placed 33rd at SA. I'll get to see them at the KISD Marching Expo tomorrow and they have made BOA DFW finals for the past few years so we'll see.

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I loved KCs show last year. Subtle but enjoyable and well performed. I think that they, along with Wylie will be the biggest questions going into DFW. Most likely 8 spots of finals will be taken up with Hebron, Flower Mound, Cedar Park, Keller, LD Bell, Union, Prosper, and Timber Creek. That leaves two openings between all of these great groups including the two I mentioned, Waxahachie, Coppell, Wakeland, Duncanville, Martin, and several other good groups that have an outside chance.

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Seen some mixed messages about Union this year. A while ago I saw some information suggesting Union was building off last year’s success but that source seemed more connected to the band. Recent information and opinions seem to say that they are taking a drastically different design pathway that is causing major setbacks. It would break my heart to see a Nats fall off the map all of a sudden. Obviously I haven’t seen them in competition but making finals here might be a struggle. I’m hoping they stay as hardworking as ever and find happiness in what they are doing. I encourage everyone to be supportive of bands undergoing major changes. Competitive results are irrelevant in comparison to the well-being of students and the quality of their experiences.

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My daughter goes to Keller. They just won HEB, I feel like they should make top 3? ( I have been a band mom for 16 years, my son graduated in 2015.)

I stand corrected. She's not a Prosper booster. (I sure fell for that "A friend of mine has a Senior Clarinet in the band" comment.) Yikes! Keller? Yogi, I have a very bad feeling about this... 16 years means she probably knows me and certainly knows my wife. You guys gave me a hard time about the bluntness of my comment (and I deserved it) but now I'm afraid I'm going to be in real trouble if my wife hears about me misbehaving.

 

And to top it off NorthTexasBandMom156 made another bold prediction but this time with a question mark. Okay, I'll just live with the heat.

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“They” was Drinkwater last spring. I’m a parent, and was there, in April, when she announced it. The kids are excited to go to a BOA they’ve never been to before and see bands they don’t regularly see. It has nothing to do with Jones.

I'm very relieved to here that. Wait, how did they end up on the early list for BOA DFW? Were they originally planning to attend all three competitions until the Mesquite dates were announced later and created the conflict?

 

Also I don't mean to imply that Jones should not have control of the program, simply that he should be respectful of the traditions of the program he joined and build on that foundation.

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I'm very relieved to here that. Wait, how did they end up on the early list for BOA DFW? Were they originally planning to attend all three competitions until the Mesquite dates were announced later and created the conflict?

 

Also I don't mean to imply that Jones should not have control of the program, simply that he should be respectful of the traditions of the program he joined and build on that foundation.

Well, I’m not sure why we were on the list in this forum because I remember thinking it wasn’t correct a few months ago.

 

And Mr Jones is in full control of the program—I know you didn’t mean to imply that. But coming in during the summer means theme, choreo, schedule, and music is already decided. He’s very respectful of traditions but we’re also willing to help him make it his band.

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I feel like using the word "should" might be a bit of a reach, considering it has never been done here before, but I think it is a great possibility for Keller to find themselves a medal.

This is promising! After prelims at HEB, the director and students were extremely fired up after Prosper got first in 6A. I’m glad they were able to come in finals and play awesome! Kudos to Prosper though. Still do not know how they got 3rd with a 4 minute show. I feel pretty confident in Keller medaling seeing the bands attending. I think finals will be something like this

 

Top Half (No Order)

Keller

Flower Mound

Union

Hebron

L.D. Bell

 

Bottom Half (No Order)

Coppell

Timber Creek

Waxahachie

Trinity/Wylie

Wakeland

 

 

Also, isn’t Prosper’s show too short for BOA regulations? I thought it was 6 minutes for sure.

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I think we are seeing two things happen here:

1. Y’all don’t all know who Cedar Park is. Prepare to be surprised by this “little 5A band from out of north Austin”. Anyone who has them out of finals is most likely going to be wrong given their 6th place finish in ATX last weekend.

2. Top two will likely be Hebron and FMHS. Don’t know who wins but I’m guessing it’s one of those two. Next two will likely be Keller and CPHS just based of BOA SA results from last year.

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Coming back to Union, was able to track down vids of the top finishers at Owasso and glean a bit of insight into Union's getting third behind Bixby and Jenks. It's definitely a departure stylistically for them. Big picture, I think this is probably good for the program long term- shifting toward a more sophisticated, theatrical show design- but this year the design is doing them little favors. It wasn't as visually challenging or engaging as their competitors, a problem which was exacerbated by the fact that they seemed to have a bad run in general. Low energy, sloppy in spots. But they were first in Prelims, which is promising. I'm still predicting them to make finals here, but they're not as locked in as I previously thought. All in all, I think their loss says a bit more about the programs that beat them than it does about themselves. 

 

Particularly Bixby- wowza, what a step up for them. They have the look and feel of a grand national finalist caliber program. Exceptional execution of challenging drill, compelling design, phenomenal presence. They do not, however, sound like a grand national finalist caliber program. I'm afraid they've got quite a ways to go in that regard, but I'm really excited about the future of this program. Jenks was crowd-pleasing and kind of confounding from a conceptual standpoint (Carmen meets Cars, with Rihanna and death drops) but they played the heck out of it. High energy, strong visual, great musicality, exceptional guard. I think Union will probably pass them by the time their state championship rolls around.

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This is promising! After prelims at HEB, the director and students were extremely fired up after Prosper got first in 6A. I’m glad they were able to come in finals and play awesome! Kudos to Prosper though. Still do not know how they got 3rd with a 4 minute show. I feel pretty confident in Keller medaling seeing the bands attending. I think finals will be something like this

 

Top Half (No Order)

Keller

Flower Mound

Union

Hebron

L.D. Bell

 

Bottom Half (No Order)

Coppell

Timber Creek

Waxahachie

Trinity/Wylie

Wakeland

 

 

Also, isn’t Prosper’s show too short for BOA regulations? I thought it was 6 minutes for sure.

 

They'll have more for sure by this weekend, a lot of bands don't finish their shows until October. Also, they'll be in finals. Being just a point behind Marcus at HEB was no mistake and they'll be fighting for top 5 (though I still have them in the bottom half).

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This is promising! After prelims at HEB, the director and students were extremely fired up after Prosper got first in 6A. I’m glad they were able to come in finals and play awesome! Kudos to Prosper though. Still do not know how they got 3rd with a 4 minute show. I feel pretty confident in Keller medaling seeing the bands attending. I think finals will be something like this

 

Top Half (No Order)

Keller

Flower Mound

Union

Hebron

L.D. Bell

 

Bottom Half (No Order)

Coppell

Timber Creek

Waxahachie

Trinity/Wylie

Wakeland

 

 

Also, isn’t Prosper’s show too short for BOA regulations? I thought it was 6 minutes for sure.

How many years has it been since Cedar Park missed Finals at any contest?

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