2018 BOA San Antonio?

[bingogooberman]

caught a video of Hebron without that clarinet mic fiasco and they look dangerous. don't count them out of the title hunt just for an unfortunate (by their standards, at least) prelims performance at Bedford. 

[LeanderMomma]

caught a video of Hebron without that clarinet mic fiasco and they look dangerous. don't count them out of the title hunt just for an unfortunate (by their standards, at least) prelims performance at Bedford.

Exactly.

[JeremiahW]

Different from the current list? Yes. Dramatically different? Not by my definition of the word. E.g., the order is more likely to change than many of the bands on the list. And of course the contest results will differ from the prediction, that's expected.

 

So are you saying there will be more than three band in BOA SA Finals that were not there last year and more than two bands that have never been in BOA SA Finals?

 

Edit: Wait a minute, are you also saying their predictions won't simply lift the Texas bands from the latest Top 30 and Next Ten? Why on Earth would they contradict themselves like that?

 

The rankings and predictions to tend to diverge, and sometimes dramatically. While the rankings are more bounded by previous placements and actual scores, predictions have much more freedom to include how we think the judges should have scored a group. Now, we tend to be wrong a lot, but what fun are predictions if you aren't wrong?

[LostChoirGuy]

The main way that I think the blocks will impact the competition is for the bands in the 5-10th place range. These scores are always very close as it is and has been stated before, it is tough to say with surety that one of the bands truly is better than the other. I think the top 4 or so bands will probably solidly make it into the top half of finals, but we might get a really good band who probably deserves to be in the top half going into finals that ends up going near the beginning of finals because of the two blocks of judging.

 

Scenario 1: One group of judges is simply a bit inflated over the others

 

Scenario 2 (and more likely): While the finalist bands from the past few years are being spread, that doesnt mean this years top bands are being spread. It is possible that a larger number of the bands that seem to be fighting for first end up in one block over the other. Suppose if we could rank all bands without this contest and bands A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H all were the top 8 bands in that order and A, B, C, E, and G were all in the first group and D, F, and H were in the second group. G might get scored lower than they deserve because they were the 5th best band in their group compared to H that was the 3rd best in their group. So then we might see H making the top half of finals over G and it is very hard for G to pass H back up with unfavorable performance time.

 

These are just examples. In all, I dont think anything will be too bad, but it will be worth analyzing for sure once we get the schedule.

[LostChoirGuy]

Oh and I should add that I know scores arent ordinal, but there is surely a subconscious way that comparing to other bands that did better has small effect on scores. When the scores are as close as they likely will be, that could make a difference.

[BenedictCucumberpatch]

My predictions as of now. Will definitely change, and are based off of current results, how complete programs are, and usual tendencies of the bands towards the end of the season.

 

1. Ronald Reagan

2. Flower Mound

3. The Woodlands

4. CTJ

5. Leander

6. Vandegrift

7. Hebron

8. Vista Ridge

9. Cedar Park

10. James Bowie

11. Keller

12. Cedar Ridge

13. Hendrickson

14. Cy-Fair

[herbaflerb]

 

Predictions as of 10/14

 

"Solid" Finalists

1.CTJ

2.Ronald Reagan 

3.Vandegrift 

4.Flower Mound

5.Leander

6.The Woodlands

7.Hebron 

 

-----------------------Bubble-----

8.James Bowie

9.Keller

10.Marcus

11.Vista Ridge

12.Cedar Park

13.Hendrickson

14.LD Bell 

 

----Finals Cutoff----

 

15.Cedar Ridge 

16.Cy-Fair

17.Oak Ridge

18.Seven Lakes

19.Winston Churchill 

20.Round Rock

------------------------------------Top 20 Cutoff

Timber Creek

James E. Taylor

Waxahachie 

Brazoswood

Prosper

Wakeland

---------------------Bubble-----

 

Not really sure how I feel about Hendrickson making finals at San Antonio. Maybe I'm letting my own issues with the show into this opinion, but it really seems like a dry, cookie cutter type show. It's not all that exciting and I wasn't really impressed by the drill/music. It feels like a clarinet solo with some accompaniment. Also LD Bell? I don't know a whole lot about them- does anyone have a video of this year?

[forFUB]

From TWHS show last year, I think there is a lot of doubt. They got 2nd at BOA super regional in 2016 and dropped down to 11th. Harvey set them back a ton. And don’t get me wrong, there was some tough comp. But the show the woodlands is doing this year is by far the best show I have seen from them. It’s so clean and I heard they already finished it, so they have 3 weeks to clean before the super regional. I think many people are going to be surprised when they see them in SA. They are not leaving with 11th place again that’s for sure. And they did get higher scores then CTJ did at their regional. Just saying

[MadisonBandMan1]

Not really sure how I feel about Hendrickson making finals at San Antonio. Maybe I'm letting my own issues with the show into this opinion, but it really seems like a dry, cookie cutter type show. It's not all that exciting and I wasn't really impressed by the drill/music. It feels like a clarinet solo with some accompaniment. Also LD Bell? I don't know a whole lot about them- does anyone have a video of this year?

You should have seen Hendrickson at Yamaha cup. It was insane. Don’t sleep on them, trust me.

[natertater21000]

 

From TWHS show last year, I think there is a lot of doubt. They got 2nd at BOA super regional in 2016 and dropped down to 11th. Harvey set them back a ton. And don’t get me wrong, there was some tough comp. But the show the woodlands is doing this year is by far the best show I have seen from them. It’s so clean and I heard they already finished it, so they have 3 weeks to clean before the super regional. I think many people are going to be surprised when they see them in SA. They are not leaving with 11th place again that’s for sure. And they did get higher scores then CTJ did at their regional. Just saying

Not only can you not compare scores from different contests but you especially can't compare the scores of two bands who didn't even compete on the same weekend. All of the bands that made Austin finals and then went to either Conroe or Bedford the next weekend increased their scores by 5-7 points. It's not a stretch to assume that the same would have occurred with CTJ, putting them at a theoretical 88-89 which would have beaten the woodlands 86.80.

[principalagent]

You should have seen Hendrickson at Yamaha cup. It was insane. Don’t sleep on them, trust me.

The problem is every band is insane at that level. Some unfortunately will be left out. Not saying it’s Hendrickson, but some band(s) around that level is gonna sit Saturday night out.

[forFUB]

Not only can you not compare scores from different contests but you especially can't compare the scores of two bands who didn't even compete on the same weekend. All of the bands that made Austin finals and then went to either Conroe or Bedford the next weekend increased their scores by 5-7 points. It's not a stretch to assume that the same would have occurred with CTJ, putting them at a theoretical 88-89 which would have beaten the woodlands 86.80.

Okay but they are scored with the same stuff. All BOA judges are asked to be unbiased and score equally. The chief judge of BOA came and talked to my school last week. He explained the whole system to us. Now I understand it was on different weekends and TWHS had more time then CTJ but CTJ has gotten higher scores then the ones they got the previous comps and TWHS have gotten lower scores. I am just pointing out the fact TWHS is ready to compete and I am in no way trying to offend anyone from CTJ.

[JeremiahW]

Schedule is up!

​​​​​​​https://www.hornrank.com/2018/01/2018-san-antonio-super-regional.html

The following groups were not given performance spots on to the schedule:
Katy H.S., TX
Palmview H.S., TX
The Colony H.S., TX

[principalagent]

Yikes Panel 2. Panel 1 has a pretty locked up top 4 and an open space that I assume goes to Cedar Park, LD Bell or Timber Creek, with somewhat outside shots of Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge and Round Rock.

 

Panel 2 has Vandegrift, Bowie, Marcus, TWHS, Claudia Taylor Johnson, Flower Mound, Vista Ridge, and Prosper. I'm gonna assume the majority of the Next 4 comes from Panel 2.

[Bandwoww]

Adjudication panel 1 prediction

 

1.Hebron

2.Ronald Reagan

3. Leander

4. Keller

5. Cedar Park

————————

6-10 (random order)

Hendrickson

Cedar Ridge

Timber Creek

LD Bell

Round Rock

[justabandkid94]

Hello woodlands band member

[LostChoirGuy]

They seem fairly even to me from a first glance... *looks deeper*

[Fwguard17]

Hello woodlands band member

lmao 

[LostChoirGuy]

Is there usually the same sort of benefit to going last on day 1 as there is for going last overall? Keller got the day 1 final spot.

[Bandwoww]

Is there usually the same sort of benefit to going last on day 1 as there is for going last overall? Keller got the day 1 final spot.

Probably, and it’s beneficial because pretty much all of their panel 1 competitors go on Friday (except Hebron).

[BandFriendzz]

I will say tho . That the last bloc of finals looks good . And honestly this just made it harder !

[BandFriendzz]

Panel 2 : flomo, Vandegrift, ctj, the woodlands, haltom , Bowie , prosper , Marcus , vista .

I think this is gonna be where most of the next 4 is coming from . Yikes this is just hard .

[LostChoirGuy]

After looking closer, I think that the finalists are fairly well spread between the blocks. I do agree that block two has more of the bubble bands that could surprise someone. However, I dont see them placing in the top 5 of the day, so it doesnt really matter what judging panel those groups get.

[Bandwoww]

I think it’s interesting that panel 1 has 7 returning finalists (and the next out) from 2017 while panel 2 has 6 returning finalists.

 

Obviously Avon isn’t here this year so there would be an imbalance.

[JeremiahW]

I think it’s interesting that panel 1 has 7 returning finalists (and the next out) from 2017 while panel 2 has 6 returning finalists.

 

Obviously Avon isn’t here this year so there would be an imbalance.

 

The intention was to balance the last three years worth of finalists across the panels.