LHSax

Really excited to see what VR can do with an extra week or two of marching season. Their current staff has proven that they are very capable of milking the most out of these shows during the last couple of weeks each of the last 2 years. Turning the Tables was a 7th-10th place show until they made some pretty magical adjustments in the last couple weeks to really make this show blossom into a medal contender. 

Well, if there’s ever a year the bottom half/top half break gets broken through......

What is happening???

all butts will be in the stands at that time
3:15 p.m. – James Bowie H.S., TX
3:30 p.m. – Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
3:45 p.m. – Clear Brook H.S., TX
4:00 p.m. – Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX
4:15 p.m. – BREAK
4:30 p.m. – Palmview H.S., TX
4:45 p.m. – Pflugerville H.S., TX
5:00 p.m. – Vandegrift H.S., TX
5:15 p.m. – Leander H.S., TX
5:30 p.m. – Vista Ridge H.S., TX
5:45 p.m. – McNeil H.S., TX
6:00 p.m. – Cedar Park H.S., TX

Is this THE pedazos of Micro Marching League fame?!

Is this THE pedazos of Micro Marching League fame?!

I was wondering the same thing. 
 
Also, I don't mind the narration in Avon's show, I think it gives some focus to the various parts of the show (even if it is a tad repetitive).  That doesn't take away from the fact that it's a pretty incredible show.  Drill is amazing, colorguard is incredible, drums are fantastic, the music is incredibly high energy, and it's all packaged up in a easy to digest but perfectly executed package.  

Is this THE pedazos of Micro Marching League fame?!

Pppppllllleeeeeease just take out like....2 or 3 of the “8 notes” narrations and I’m completely on board this Avon train!

Pppppllllleeeeeease just take out like....2 or 3 of the “8 notes” narrations and I’m completely on board this Avon train!

Let's take this to the next level...
 
Sight Reading Marching Band

Let's take this to the next level...
 
Sight Reading Marching Band

We're another week closer so here is an ordered top 14 for SA.
 
1. Reagan (GE, Vis) this will probably go down as the single best Reagan show of the 2010's.
 
2.Flowermound. Extremely solid, will probably average a close second in most captions. It's my personal favorite show, that closer is simply incredible.
 
3.Vandegrift. While I'd love to see an LISD south band break through and finally grab a silver medal, I think bronze is where they'll end up. This show is a perfect successor to their beethoven show in 17 and I expect the same level of success.
 
4. Hebron (music). What else can be said? They play incredibly well and I fully expect them to clean up visually between SA and GN just like in 2015.  I'm not sure they'll medal in SA but they will be in the hunt for the eagle at GN in my opinion.
 
5. Claudia taylor johnson. Okay, this one was really tough. There are four bands I could see in this 5th place spot but if I had to pick one it'd be ctj. Ctj has been in the top 5 at SA since I belive 2012 (any ctj peeps feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) and I just don't see that consistency stopping now.
 
6 Leander. I really love the show design as usual and the music is probably the most difficult and we'll performed they've ever had. I expect some redesigns from them in the coming weeks all the way up to nats. I really am unsure where they'll end up though.
 
7 Vista ridge. I half expect them to pass leander and ctj again to snag that fifth spot but I'm not quite sure they'll be clean enough this time. Could easily be higher than this.
 
8. The Woodlands. This is consistently the hardest band for me to place. Their show is unique and loads of fun. I have them at 8th in SA but would not be shocked to see them do what RR did in 2013.
 
9. Marcus. They are one of the most consistent performimg bands in existence. I don't expect to see them out of finals anytime soon.
 
10. LD Bell. I think their St. Louis performance speaks for itself, really strong across the board. I'm glad bell is here to stay once more.
 
11. Westwood. Huge breakout year for them! Some may be surprised that I have them in before some other programs but I think they are running with the hype of their success. The Sky is the limit!
 
12. James Bowie. I'm not sure I would have had them in if not for their recent performance at Waco. If they can keep up a high level of improvement they could easily secure a spot.
 
13. Keller. I have them for sure in finals due to how consistent they've been for the past few years. They sound great and the visual will come with time.
 
14. Okay so kind of a cop-out but I can't confidently give this spot to a single band yet. Obviously Cedar Ridge is the most likely pick as they have consistent late season success, but it's hard to count out bands on the rise like Rouse. Then there is Cedar Park fighting hard to get back in as well. Too close to call at the moment.
 
Two other small predictions
 
The first 97+ will be recorded at SA finals
 
All 14 bands in finals will break 90

I think visual could be closer than you think (think SA 2017). And yes, they had drops during the show , not even Avon's guard is perfect all the time. 
 
I like the show, I still think it is premature to anoint anything yet. Indy and SA will be interesting, but certainly not the last word on GN. I'm just testing my critical eye out and getting feedback from others to see if there are things I'm missing that I should be accounting for. Just like the bands, I'm trying to get better about what I'm looking at and for to better understand the shows and what does and doesn't score well. The only way to do that at the level of show these programs put out is to be a little nit-picky about questions.

Well...since I kind of initiated that conversation, I will say I didn't mean to be all doom and gloom about this. I really thought after watching CTJ/Leander/Vandy and hearing clips of Hebron, that we'd be throwing Indy the best we have to offer (which we haven't quite done the last 5 or so years). I still think our groups have a great shot at taking 1-2 medals and an outside shot at taking home the eagle...
 
But man, what Reagan is putting on the field this year would have a great chance at dominating Grand Nationals. I believe that show is special. That said, as I've mentioned somewhere else. a repeat of 2007 (where a band that doesn't win SA, wins GN) is definitely in the cards, and I think as a whole, these groups will make up most of the top half, which is amazing.

HA, i still remember the mini freak-out all us teenage kids had when Richland busted out the Halo theme...Pair that with Hebron's DDR show that was around that same time, and we were watching our childhood summarized in marching form.

Here's a spreadsheet I made to help track the bands performing at SA this year with their BOA scores. I also have certain bands highlighted certain colors based on "honors" they have achieved.
 
Purple - Currently ranked in the top 32 (and next 10)
Red - Formerly ranked in the top 32 (and next 10) this season
Orange - Formerly ranked in the top 32 (and next 10) at any point
Blue - Has made finals at a BOA competition this season
Yellow - Has made finals at a BOA competition in the past 5 years
 
In the results section, if it they're in green they just attended but if it's blue they made finals at the event.
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rCO4c8ZW-xmg9LLQZimAKhYCkPGE6TTtEnsVp-Hg-5s/edit?usp=sharing
 
Edit: I swear I’m literate

I got into a the BOA scene in 2006.  Richland was one of the powerhouses at the time and I was a HUGE fan of their shows.  "iShow" was probably my 2nd favorite show of 2007 behind Bell's championship show.  Karl Jenkins' "Chorale-Solfa" became the piece to do after that year and I think they might've been the first finalist band to ever put the theme from Halo on the field.
 
"Inside Out" was my 3rd favorite show behind Bell's "Light of Gold" and Avon's "Equus" in '05.  I don't think there will ever be a more glorious performance of Whitacre's "Sleep" in BOA.  (EDIT:  Well.....4th favorite.  Can't forget about Reagan )

I went to Keller High School but I never marched and my brother currently goes to Keller. Wasn’t sure if you only wanted alumni that marched and I’m not exactly a parent so I went with general fan.
 
My 2 brothers and I took piano lessons when we were younger but eventually stopped. You know
kids, sometimes games sounded more appealing than practice  .  My father and older brother still play piano and guitar. Now I greatly regret not continuing but not for anything professional. Just for myself really because music is a beautiful thing. 
 
I went to a private school until 7th grade and our school did not really have a band program. I want to say maybe around 15 people in total were in band which was taught by a band teacher at Nolan Catholic High School. When I moved to Keller in 8th grade, I was just never exposed to band. My younger brother joined band in intermediate and that was when I started going to the middle and high school concerts. My older brother's friend was in band but quit because apparently it was heck lol. I wasn't planning on joining band or anything but that did the opposite of offering any kind of persuasion. I went to the KISD Marching expo every year because marching shows interested me and would occasionally watch videos. My friends in band would talk to me about music and props in their show. I was in National Art Honor Society and we had to get art related volunteer hours so I remember I spent a day helping to paint the clouds in their Ascend show. This one friend was completely geeking out over Leonardo's Dream and because I had very limited experience watching marching band at the time, I was like, "Oh that’s cool.. but I still think Ascend is better." I eventually learned more though and by the end of the season, Keller even getting 5th at SMBC was very exciting.
 
Now I am currently in college and my younger brother goes to Keller. With college classes being split up by semesters, I feel like I've been out of high school for so long now when it has only been a few years. The marching activity has invaded my life. I listen and watch everyday. Actually,  I am currently listening to North Shore 2016 at the moment. I feel like I have learned so much over the years, especially from these forums. I'll talk to my brother and friends from other schools and will be surprised at how much more I know about the other programs in the nation as well as things like judging and rules. My brother is my main source of info regarding what goes on at Keller and I am his source when it comes to everything else.
 
If I could go back, I would join band and probably do color guard in the winter. But all of that along with art being my focus sounds like a lot. In general, I have a huge appreciation for all art forms. I love to read, play games, analyze films, I dabble in photography, graphic design, watch ballet and breakdancing. I love to paint, sculpt, draw, I took a kiln glass class 2 semesters ago so FloMo's Vitrify instantly intrigued me. As of recently, I have fallen in love with musical theatre!
 
Okay enough of me, I think I overshared a bit  . Hopefully that paints a picture.

The regular Oreo has the perfect ration of cookie to creme filling. The Double Stuf Oreos have too much creme filling. Nabisco got greedy and now, we have Swedish Fish Oreos which is basically the same thing as eating a block of arsenic.
 
Anyways, this contest is ridiculous. I will need a lot of Big Bib BBQ to get through it

I can definitely see a scenario like 07 where Texas gets the eagle, but not with the band that wins SA. Marcus actually dominated SA that year, sweeping captions in finals and almost doing so in Prelims, but LD Bell still went on to win at grand nationals. Some may assume that Marcus would've won if they went to Indy that year, but I still think LD Bell added so many layers to that show by Indy (the progressive endings...so bold and powerful) that they may have topped Marcus then. 

I can definitely see a scenario like 07 where Texas gets the eagle, but not with the band that wins SA. Marcus actually dominated SA that year, sweeping captions in finals and almost doing so in Prelims, but LD Bell still went on to win at grand nationals. Some may assume that Marcus would've won if they went to Indy that year, but I still think LD Bell added so many layers to that show by Indy (the progressive endings...so bold and powerful) that they may have topped Marcus then. 

While we like to think SA is crazy and unpredictable, if we look at the last 5 years, the results at SA have been generally pretty consistent and relatively predictable given earlier regionals and previous years. With this in mind, I’ll take a slightly different historical look at potential medalists/top-half finalists/finalists, based on past trends. (it’s been a slow morning at work).

 
Notes: Bands color coded by region, out of state bands not included in list.

 
Winners (2)
Flowermound
CTJ

This one is obvious. CTJ and Flowermound have taken turns at the top spot at the podium the last 5 years and it will be tough to wrestle it away from them (particularly after FM’s hot start this year). As always, without direct comparison, there are a few groups who appear to be able to give us a new winner this year. Hebron is still itching for that first title after being close so many times. Reagan’s renaissance still needs a title to complete an amazing comeback story. Vandy has been close in the past and seems primed to challenge for the top spot again this year.
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Medalists (8)
Hebron
Reagan
Vandegrift
Leander
The Woodlands
Bowie

The podium has also been relatively consistent the last 5 years, although there has been some back and forth between these groups between years. While Bowie may not quite be in this group anymore, each of the others are favorites to complete the medal stand this year.  

Breaking through this group to have “new” medalists will be tough. Vista likely has the best long shot depending on what they can do with an interesting vehicle, but the medalists will likely come from the 8 bands above.
 
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Top Half Finalists (11)
Vista Ridge
Marcus
Cedar Park

This is the grouping that’s pretty surprising for me. Only 11 bands have finished in the top half of finals in the past 5 years. Take out the 1 appearance apiece in this group by Bowie and VR, and the 1 spot taken by Avon, and that means 9 bands have taken 32 of the 35 top half spots over the last 5 years. These bands make up the upper echelon for the last half decade, and will be a very tough group to crack into.

I don’t personally see anyone cracking into this group this year, but I’ll give Keller the best shot at doing so. They’ve flirted with the top half for a couple years now and they will certainly hover around the break-line this year again.
 
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Finalists (20)
Keller
Cedar Ridge
Westlake
LD Bell
Round Rock
Hendrickson
Wakeland
Churchill
Cypress Falls

Again, take away the outliers (1 appearance by Wakeland, Churchill and Cypress falls) and you have 17 who have made more than 1 finalist appearance the last 5 years. Each year we tend to get 1 somewhat surprise finalist, but in general, this is once again a pretty exclusive group. The other interesting thing to note is that Houston has 1 finalist appearance besides the Woodlands in the past 5 years, and you have to go back to Spring in 2012 before that to find the next one. Houston bands have consistently hovered on the bubble, but have rarely broken through. Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be a Houston area band this year to break that trend, with 3 of the top 4 spots in the Houston regional going to non-Houston bands.

2 bands jump out to me as groups who can break into the finalist category this year based on early seasons results. Lake Travis and Westwood are the favorites to emerge as new contenders based on Lake Travis surprisingly strong finish in Austin, and Westwood’s confirmed potential in Houston. Vista Murietta will also likely have an outside chance at sneaking in.

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There are obviously a lot of bubble bands, and a lot that could happen in San Antonio, but not nearly as much as we tend to think. There are ebbs and flows over the past 5 years, some have slipped and some have raised their standard, but the trends are there, and the major trend breaker (IE Vista Ridge last year) doesn’t appear to be there this year. But I’ve been wrong before

(Thanks to HornRank for becoming a very useful source for capturing this information...I'm sure there may be an error or 2 in here though)
 

Oh, no, we haven't. We just know the difference between visual performance and visual effect. Watch Reagan 2004, or really any of the shows from that era. Then watch Reagan 2015. Then report back.