2017 BOA San Antonio Super Regionals Predictions

[Metallica fan]

1: The Woodlands

2: Hebron

3: Winston Churchill

4: Douglas MacArthur

5: Vandegrift

6: Marcus

7: Round Rock

8: LD Bell

9: James Bowie

10: Leander

11: College Park

12: Clear brook

13: Clements

14: Flower Mound

[MadisonBandMan1]

1: The Woodlands

2: Hebron

3: Winston Churchill

4: Douglas MacArthur

5: Vandegrift

6: Marcus

7: Round Rock

8: LD Bell

9: James Bowie

10: Leander

11: College Park

12: Clear brook

13: Clements

14: Flower Mound

1- WHY IS DOUGLAS MACARTHUR ON THAT LIST??

2- WHERE IS AVON??

3- WHY IS FLOMO AT 14TH??

 

I rest my case

[Nny14]

 

3- WHY IS FLOMO AT 14TH??

As crazy and unlikely as that sounds, Flower Mound did go from 13th to 1st in a year so you never know. But yeah it most likely won't happen.

[MadisonBandMan1]

My biggest thing is I want to know how MacArthur will be able to jump 50 places that fast though. No offense.

[Xenon]

Just as an FYI, San Antonio MacArthur did win UIL State several times in the 1980s.

[Guest]

Those are some interesting predictions to say the least but tbh it'd be pretty cool to see MacArthur back in the game. I really enjoyed them in 2014.

[CTJBandPops]

I really hope my local schools (CTJ and Reagan) learn from last year and adapt. If Reagan can do a more difficult show and not rely on soloists as much as last year (more full ensemble), and CTJ can clean more early season, maybe go for a slightly easier show (but still in their crazy style), I think they could both be competing for a medal. This year we don't get a direct contest between the two until SA, since CTJ is attending Midland instead of Conroe.

 

This event is going to be as stacked as ever and the top 5 will separated by like 1.2 points or something ridiculous.

 

Remember that everyone knows what Flower Mound did last year and will be trying to do that themselves (in terms of cleanliness and execution), they're not just going to sit back and let Avon and Flomo steamroll everyone. It's true that Flomo knows the formula for that level of execution already, but there's surely and even better formula that someone could stumble upon.

 

Avon will be trying for the record of most wins, finals appearances, and BOA events attended in one season, like they're trying to become a Cedar Point roller coaster.

After seeing CTJ last night in Austin, I think they learned the lesson on needing to be cleaner. I heard that the kids stepped up big by working their music over their summer and that allowed them to concentrate on the drill in camp - that allowed them to have their entire show on the field in Austin. I would have to say they just worked harder - not toned down the drill or music.

I have only seen parts of the Reagan show but look forward to seeing it and TWHS in Conroe. I expect that they too will learn and tone down the soloist

if what I saw in Austin is any indication of the level of performance hitting the field this year from Texas bands, we could see a good deal of very good bands not making finals in San Antonio

I know it is said every year - but the competition will be insane and I will wait to see how BOA in Dallas and Houston play out before making any predictions

[NTxBandMom8]

I also don't think that "money" makes as big of a difference as some might think.  I heard from a Flowermound student that they do tons of fundraising and that their props and uniforms are actually what he called "cheap!"  The school itself is in a wealthy area, as is Vandegrift and the Woodlands, but that does not guarantee anything.  Case in point, LEANDER!!!     While there are some wealthy neighborhoods in our area, there are also PLENTY of low income neighborhoods as well.  We are what you might call, a "well-rounded" school.    But the bottom line is, each school only gets a certain amount of money from the district and it does not matter if it is a wealthy area or not.  Money does not a fantastic band make.  Plenty of examples that show otherwise!  And I know for a fact that Leander does an INSANE amount of fundraising.  I'm not saying that a wealthy school district does not have it's perks, but I don't think it makes as huge a difference as one might think.  

I would agree with this to some extent.  Money does not make a band, but bands with more money tend to have more parental involvement.  I think there is a delicate balance there.  Too much money and not enough parental involvement (as a band director I know personally found out) sometimes leaves you with a band of kid who feel entitled and are not willing to show the grit necessary to get it done.  Too much parental involvement in the wrong areas leads to a buy-in for all the wrong reasons, which leads to issues with turnover in members when things don't go the way students and mom and dad want.

 

Sometimes the planets line up just right, but that doesn't mean the balance will be there the following year.  It's a crap shoot depending on the parents and students, their involvement and their willingness to work toward the vision the director has, and whether the director can find the delicate balance with the group he has.

 

I do digress here, but I think each program has it's own issues, and the length of time the staff has been there and the strength of their leadership over time is what makes or breaks things sometimes.  

[MadisonBandMan1]

Uh oh, looks like Johnson is bringing another chameleon, but possibly better...

[zururoua]

They're definitely gonna be in contention for a medal if they continue to improve from Austin. Wouldn't be surprised to see them take down Avon and/or Flomo. Winning Austin by nearly 3 points is no small feat.

[LeanderMomma]

They're definitely gonna be in contention for a medal if they continue to improve from Austin. Wouldn't be surprised to see them take down Avon and/or Flomo. Winning Austin by nearly 3 points is no small feat.

 

I would love to have known what the margin would have been had they had an incomplete show like the rest of us.  They would have won, no doubt about that, but I'm curious as to what the actual margin would have been had they only had the same amount of show as the rest of us.  

[CTJBandPops]

I would love to have known what the margin would have been had they had an incomplete show like the rest of us.  They would have won, no doubt about that, but I'm curious as to what the actual margin would have been had they only had the same amount of show as the rest of us.  

having a complete show vs a shorter version is debated as a double edged sword - it could help - could hurt. as clean as it was you could say that not working on the closer would have given them more time to polish the earlier part of the show. I doubt at had that big of an impact - I think Dan's Podcast yesterday was spot on - 

the scary part is that it appears that program always finishes strong - in 2015 and 2016 they did not win a regional championship (if you discount the inaugural McAllen regional) yet they finished the San Antonio SR in 3rd (2015) and 4th (2016) and I believe you would see the same if you looked at 2012 and 2013 when they had yet to win a regional but always finished in the top 5

in 2016 Vandy won Austin and finish 7th in SA - Reagan won Conroe and finished SA in 8th. with what they have on the field now and the time that they have to build and polish, this could be a show that could take down Avon and/or Flomo. from what I can see they are doing a slower year - they will not meet up with any of their BOA competition again until San Antonio as it looks like they are going to Midland. So the show that was on the field in Austin could be much different when it gets to the dome. But that is not to say that others will not make the same rise - as we see every year in the dome there are always a few that jump up that no one saw coming and this year will be no different.

[TWHSParent]

I would love to have known what the margin would have been had they had an incomplete show like the rest of us.  They would have won, no doubt about that, but I'm curious as to what the actual margin would have been had they only had the same amount of show as the rest of us.  

 

I find it interesting to look at the score changes between the first contest and SA. Quick check from last year (using the lowest prelim/finals at the first and highest prelim/finals at SA - oh, and shoutout to HornRank for the data):

 

Flower Mound: 88.05 to 93.35 - +5.3

The Woodlands: 78.25 to 92.50 - +14.25

Leander: 79.05 to 91.55 - +12.5

Claudia Taylor Johnson: 82.30 to 91.20 - +8.9

Hebron: 83.20 to 91.65 - +8.45

Marcus: 84.20 to 92.05 - +7.85

Vandegrift: 80.05 to 92.45 - +12.4

Ronald Reagan: 82.50 to 90.90 - +8.4

 

Some went on to GN and further increased their scores. So I think the question is - do they have enough to add so that the 3 point gap is enough to maintain their relative placement? They certainly might, and it will be interesting to see how things play out (ok, little pun there, sorry...).

[Drum major]

I find it interesting to look at the score changes between the first contest and SA. Quick check from last year (using the lowest prelim/finals at the first and highest prelim/finals at SA - oh, and shoutout to HornRank for the data):

 

Flower Mound: 88.05 to 93.35 - +5.3

The Woodlands: 78.25 to 92.50 - +14.25

Leander: 79.05 to 91.55 - +12.5

Claudia Taylor Johnson: 82.30 to 91.20 - +8.9

Hebron: 83.20 to 91.65 - +8.45

Marcus: 84.20 to 92.05 - +7.85

Vandegrift: 80.05 to 92.45 - +12.4

Ronald Reagan: 82.50 to 90.90 - +8.4

 

Some went on to GN and further increased their scores. So I think the question is - do they have enough to add so that the 3 point gap is enough to maintain their relative placement? They certainly might, and it will be interesting to see how things play out (ok, little pun there, sorry...).

Cedar Park 76.60 to 96.30 - + 19.7

Round Rock  76.40 to 88.60 -  + 12.2

...........if your looking at it evenly across the board at the bands that made the most improvement-

Makes one believe that the late bloomer bands are able to keep improving peaking at the end -   and those with the lead in the beginning tend to peak early and level out.   Which is probably why  Cedar Park did so well at Grand Nats.  

[CTJBandPops]

I find it interesting to look at the score changes between the first contest and SA. Quick check from last year (using the lowest prelim/finals at the first and highest prelim/finals at SA - oh, and shoutout to HornRank for the data):

 

Flower Mound: 88.05 to 93.35 - +5.3

The Woodlands: 78.25 to 92.50 - +14.25

Leander: 79.05 to 91.55 - +12.5

Claudia Taylor Johnson: 82.30 to 91.20 - +8.9

Hebron: 83.20 to 91.65 - +8.45

Marcus: 84.20 to 92.05 - +7.85

Vandegrift: 80.05 to 92.45 - +12.4

Ronald Reagan: 82.50 to 90.90 - +8.4

 

Some went on to GN and further increased their scores. So I think the question is - do they have enough to add so that the 3 point gap is enough to maintain their relative placement? They certainly might, and it will be interesting to see how things play out (ok, little pun there, sorry...).

good point - I love stats - if you look at every band that won at one of the Texas regionals by 1.5 points or more since 2013 - they went on to win the San Antonio Super Regional.if you add 2012 (there was no Austin BOA) Marcus won by 1.65 and TWHS won by 2.30 - Marcus won SA and TWHS finished 2nd 

not that it means anything other than the data is the data - adding Avon to the mix of Texas bands will also have an impact

[natertater21000]

Cedar Park 76.60 to 96.30 - + 19.7

Round Rock  76.40 to 88.60 -  + 12.2

...........if your looking at it evenly across the board at the bands that made the most improvement-

Makes one believe that the late bloomer bands are able to keep improving peaking at the end -   and those with the lead in the beginning tend to peak early and level out.   Which is probably why  Cedar Park did so well at Grand Nats.  

I think its worth noting that 5 of those 19.7 points were gained from pre lims to finals of nats, which while extremely impressive is much more an outlier than the rule at least in the research I've done.

[whitewing09]

I think CTJ has something very special this year, much like in 2014. Their show is just so dynamic (and that's saying something for them given their shows in general). I'd even say they seem more comfortable with their show now than they were with Flashdance in mid-October.

 

I cannot wait to see how well they do end of season. If there is a show to challenge the hegemony of Avon and the rise of FloMo. I'd say it's this one.

[LeanderMomma]

Cedar Park 76.60 to 96.30 - + 19.7

Round Rock 76.40 to 88.60 - + 12.2

...........if your looking at it evenly across the board at the bands that made the most improvement-

Makes one believe that the late bloomer bands are able to keep improving peaking at the end - and those with the lead in the beginning tend to peak early and level out. Which is probably why Cedar Park did so well at Grand Nats.

That Cedar Park stat is incorrect for San Antonio. I'm sure they had quite a jump by BOA SA, but obviously they did not have a higher score than FloMo.

[LeanderMomma]

I think CTJ has something very special this year, much like in 2014. Their show is just so dynamic (and that's saying something for them given their shows in general). I'd even say they seem more comfortable with their show now than they were with Flashdance in mid-October.

 

I cannot wait to see how well they do end of season. If there is a show to challenge the hegemony of Avon and the rise of FloMo. I'd say it's this one.

I agree 100% and I am VERY excited about the prospect!

[principalagent]

That Cedar Park stat is incorrect for San Antonio. I'm sure they had quite a jump by BOA SA, but obviously they did not have a higher score than FloMo.

That was actually their GN score. Well, GN score plus an extra point lol

[LeanderMomma]

That was actually their GN score. Well, GN score plus an extra point lol

Darned inflation!!

[CTJBandPops]

I think CTJ has something very special this year, much like in 2014. Their show is just so dynamic (and that's saying something for them given their shows in general). I'd even say they seem more comfortable with their show now than they were with Flashdance in mid-October.

 

I cannot wait to see how well they do end of season. If there is a show to challenge the hegemony of Avon and the rise of FloMo. I'd say it's this one.

I agree it could be special and they are comfortable early on in the season - but there are a number of powers out there that are yet to be score in a BOA competition - looking forward to seeing what the next 2 weeks produce in Dallas and Houston - I just bought my VIP tickets for San Antonio - i want a good seat for this one 

[CTJBandPops]

First week of Texas BOA shook up the rankings on Horn Rank - I expect the next 2 weeks to do some more as Dallas and Houston BOA's play out

 

Claudia Taylor Johnson was named regional champion at the Austin Regional, beating our predicted champion Vandegrift. Johnson brought a level of energy and intensity that isn't normally seen this early in the season. Not to mention that CTJ has what appears to be their entire show on the field already, which is almost unheard of anywhere in the country and especially in Texas. That performance propelled them all the way to fourth place, and places Johnson directly in the running for a champion title at San Antonio.

 

Cedar Ridge, Round Rock, and Vandegrift also saw gains in their rankings after exceptional performances in Austin

 

Vandy - from 13 to 9

Round Rock from 19 to 13

​Cedar Ridge - from outside 30 to 19

[LeanderMomma]

I agree it could be special and they are comfortable early on in the season - but there are a number of powers out there that are yet to be score in a BOA competition - looking forward to seeing what the next 2 weeks produce in Dallas and Houston - I just bought my VIP tickets for San Antonio - i want a good seat for this one

Ohhhhh, we should do a TXB VIP section!

[CTJBandPops]

Ohhhhh, we should do a TXB VIP section!

it is where the Daniels hang out - best seats in the house and you get to pick their brains while you are there