2015 BOA San Antonio Predictions

[whitewing09]

I feel like the relatively giant elephant in the room is CTJ. The last time they were in the spot light was almost a month before SA when they were neck in neck with Reagan at Conroe. Their visual package is substantially harder than anyone else in Texas (I think?) and it may be too hard to clean for SA.

Has anyone seen them recently? What are your thoughts? Please share either publicly or via PM. I'm super interested!

[Rubisco]

Another vote for Color Study! I could still see Leander taking SA this year. They're probably my top pick heading into the contest, which is sort of ironic, because earlier this season I expressed my doubts about whether Choral Studies was the show to beat.

 

I don't know what CTJ looks or sounds like right now, but they were struggling a bit the last time I saw them (a week ago?). I don't want to jinx them or anything, because I know they're probably cleaning like crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised if both The Woodlands and Reagan top them at SA. In fact, I'd be a little surprised (and impressed) if CTJ does top them. I certainly think it's possible. I do have a fairly strong feeling that TW will surge at SA based on what I've seen, as they often do, and will probably medal or come close to it (4th or 5th). It sounds like they've added narration to clarify their show, which could be helpful (or annoying). Reagan should be up there as well.

[Rubisco]

How do you edit on mobile? Hahaha. I meant to say Choral WORKS.

[guardgirl17]

Less than a week away guys! Counting down the days...so excited!

[Rubisco]

For some of these bands, this upcoming week is the last big push before their competition season ends. It's the culmination of months of hard work. Blood, sweat, and tears, right? To all the kids out there, work hard this final week and have faith in yourselves. You will be rewarded. Remember, YOU'RE THE BEST.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em30XL9c5NQ

[Macwinlin]

Owasso made the trip to San Antonio in 2004 and took 3rd place. That was an impressive show. I don't think they'll place that high this year but they should definitely contend for a Finals spot.

 

2004 Results:

 

1st: Ronald Reagan 92.90

2nd: Churchill 91.50

3rd: Owasso 89.65

Owasso also made BOA Grand National finals in 2005 and 2011. Everyone knows BA because of their GN wins, but Owasso has long had the best Wind Ensemble in OK. The only band in OK, and one of the few in the US, to be awarded both the Sudler Shield and Flag. Their long-time director retired after the 2013 fall season and they barely missed GN finals last year. I'm hoping they'll be able to make it this coming weekend, but this contest is much stronger than it was back in 2004. No discount to that show, though. It was powerful and fun.

 

Audio: https://youtu.be/h9q_qFysSL8

[snares]

There are more thunderstorms in the forecast this weekend in San Antonio. I'd hate to see a repeat of State last year where bands come in a completely different color because of their drenched uniforms

[jake_tuba_03]

This is the last week... good luck to all bands and may the best band win!

[Hard Core Band Fan]

I think they just finished learning their closer earlier this week. I saw their show last night too and I agree. And a shout out to the Hendrickson band.

 

Oh, and as for Hendrickson - I really like that band all the way around. I have been enjoying their shows for years and am also impressed with the high-quality attitudes of the members and directors there as well. They stayed to watch Round Rock play post game (in the rain!) and even did the "Go Rock, Go Band" cheer that the Round Rock fans do. I can't say enough nice things about them. Top notch program in my book. Best of luck to them in SA!

[Bonelife]

Oh, and as for Hendrickson - I really like that band all the way around. I have been enjoying their shows for years and am also impressed with the high-quality attitudes of the members and directors there as well. They stayed to watch Round Rock play post game (in the rain!) and even did the "Go Rock, Go Band" cheer that the Round Rock fans do. I can't say enough nice things about them. Top notch program in my book. Best of luck to them in SA!

Also gave Westlake a standing ovation at Region. Real great people.

[guardgirl17]

There are more thunderstorms in the forecast this weekend in San Antonio. I'd hate to see a repeat of State last year where bands come in a completely different color because of their drenched uniforms

I was pretty upset when I saw that in the forecast too...warming up in the rain is no fun. Especially bad for woodwinds and colorguard flags. Hopefully whoever ends up warming up in the rain doesn't let that affect their show...

 

At state last year, didn't they move some of the warm up areas inside? That could possibly happen again this year...maybe

[JTApex]

Indoor warm ups may be possible, but getting performers, instruments, flags, and props inside without getting wet is a problem that I don't think there are easy answers for.

[Bring The Mojo]

I just want to let everyone know that Flomo hasn't peaked. I was very worried that we would after Arlington, that we would hit a wall and stall. To my dismay we have only been improving. Since Arlington it's been foot on the gas, tons of additons, tweaks, and full changes! It reminds me of a GE snow ball that won't stop rolling. I'm so excited for Saturday, and good luck to all bands.

[guardgirl17]

I just want to let everyone know that Flomo hasn't peaked. I was very worried that we would after Arlington, that we would hit a wall and stall. To my dismay we have only been improving. Since Arlington it's been foot on the gas, tons of additons, tweaks, and full changes! It reminds me of a GE snow ball that won't stop rolling. I'm so excited for Saturday, and good luck to all bands.

I can't wait to watch y'alls show! From all I've heard, it sounds amazing! Good luck to ya'll this weekend!

[NTXBandFan]

I just want to let everyone know that Flomo hasn't peaked. I was very worried that we would after Arlington, that we would hit a wall and stall. To my dismay we have only been improving. Since Arlington it's been foot on the gas, tons of additons, tweaks, and full changes! It reminds me of a GE snow ball that won't stop rolling. I'm so excited for Saturday, and good luck to all bands.

Why is it to your dismay? Isn't it a good thing you're improving?

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the changes.

[Bring The Mojo]

Why is it to your dismay? Isn't it a good thing you're improving?

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the changes.

You're right it's awesome, but even from some one in the band it's easy to get lost in what needs to be, and what can be fixed. I'm just excited to go out and show everyone what we can bring! 

[That one drum major]

So I think it's finally the time of the year that I have to predict SA because as much as I am still undecided on this crazy year we're having, SA is finally here. So jumping right on into the predictions:

 

Topper groups (1-5):

1. Leander

2. Hebron

3. Reagan

4. CTJ

5. FloMo

 

Upsets (6-8):

6. Round Rock

7. Bowie

8. TWHS

 

Final locks (9-12):

9. Marcus

10. Cedar Park

11. Owasso

12. Vandegrift

 

Potentials (13-18 Alphabetically):

Cedar Ridge

Coppell

Hendrickson

Keller

Vista Ridge

Wakeland

 

Toppers:

So this one was very difficult to distinguish order wise. I decided to put Leander on top by just a smidge (smidge=.1-.5 points) because they have a very exciting show that had proven strong early in the season even when I complete. It seemed to me they might have peaked early because of TMC results, but with the top 3 bring so close in that contest, it was not a let down by any means. I believe after seeing them come out on top of Cedar Park and and Vista Ride in both Area D prelims and finals they have cleaned up quite a bit since TMC. Their two biggest problems for me early were being incomplete and being unclean but it seems these problems are both alleviated to some degree. Next I decided to put Hebron as they are on the rise lately. Have been getting a lot of attention and a hear (I have not had the opportunity to see them live) that their ballad is stunning so I'm really excited to see them. I think they pass Reagan because they are hot lately and have not peaked yet while Reagan may have peaked a little early in the season and may have lost some momentum. I think Reagans show was very clean early but the real question is how much cleaner is it now? I think show difficulty might prohibit them this year, but with an incredible young new director, who knows what could happen. We are yet to see how he is able to handle the pressure of the late season stretch so I'm interested to see how he can do in his first year with so much potential. CTJ takes 4th just above FloMo cause they seem to show up to SA very clean by the end of the season and FloMo has a lot of potential with GE so I expect this to be very close too. All in all, the top 5 could be completely backwards. If this competition was held 5 times I wouldn't be surprised to see all 5 of these bands take it once so just medalling will be an incredible achievement this year.

 

Upsets:

These are the bands that I can see breaking into the top 5 quite easily but I have doubts about they chances at winning the whole thing in comparison to those above. Round Rock was very strong early this year and I can't imagine with a trip to GN coming up, they wouldn't have been cleaning like crazy lately. I think they, if any band in this section, has a chance at a possible medal. Bowie will be very clean of course but they may be a slight disadvantage GE wise compared to other bands. I believe a combination of the two is what separates the good from the great and this year, many bands have this. No saying Bowie couldn't come out with a very strong performance to knock off a few toppers, but I think it will be hard to assert themselves atop all these bands. I do however think they could take a caption visually and that would be a major player in getting them up there toward the top. Next I have The Woodlands. They are doing good this year, but it seems in the last two years so much has changed in Texas matching and they aren't keeping up enough to dominate like they did in 2013. I haven't heard much of them recently but I have no doubt they will be coming to prove that they are still a contender. Along with most bands in the top 8, they could be looking for a good shot at a caption but captions may not be the key to victory this year.

 

Final locks:

Marcus will no doubt be as musically graceful as ever, but much like TWHS, a new kind of competition has arrived and this year has been an adapt-to-survive kind of year. I can't see them doing bad by any means but I would find it hard to see them push their way past some of the top 8 bands. The top 8 have a level of competitiveness at the core of their show I just don't see in Marcus this year. Two years ago, I'd put them top 5 but now it seems they are being challenged by new upcoming bands and this is surely a new vs old battle if anything. I am excited to see what Marcus can pull out to possible be in the top 8-5. Next I have Cedar Park. Cedar Parks show this year is definitely one of the most creative shows this year. The are very clean and will be striving to prove that they have adapted and are ready to face off against the top halfers but I believe they peaked too early this year to be as competitive as they are able. They were so clean by early October, it seemed it was hard to go anywhere from that point so they have tailed off recently and may have to fight really hard for those last couple points. I think the top 5 are just as competitive as 8-12 and the bands that make that top 8 are going to be up against some hard competition so I'm interested to see how Cedar Park can compete with TWHS, Marcus, and especially the mysterious Owasso. Owasso has a history of being a top band from Oklahoma and has done well on the national level but I have little information on them other than they are not to be over looked. They could very well come in and place pretty well against even the Texas (which I think we can all agree is the most competitive state). Another strong band is Vandegrift. They always have a way of presenting an exciting show to the audience and giving the judges a taste of what a 5A(3A) band can do. I would be surprised to see them not upset at least one of the other bands in this category because they tend to be a late season band.

 

Potentials:

These are all bands that have consistently been around this area, always fighting to get in over the competition 15-25 range or have really showed in the last two years that they are on the rise. With Wakeland having an incredible season so far they could go as high as 10th in my eyes and Vista Ridge really seems to have been on the rise lately passing up Vandegrift at UIL earlier this week. Keller had been doing good and Hendrickson is always at the top of the pack when it comes to the 15-25. Cedar Ridge has been growing strong since they started and this year is no exception. It seems with all these new bands rising up around the state, Cedar Ridge is one to look out for in the coming years as a band to climb up the rankings. I haven't gotten to hear much about Coppell this year but they never seem to disappoint so I wouldn't count them out completely.

 

Captions:

This parts very very verrrry difficult for me because placements this year have been crazy, yes, but captions are even crazier. Bowie winning GE over Reagan at TMC, Leander winning BOA Austin without any captions, it's all a big mess so captions could be the most competitive part of the night.

 

Music:

Reagan

Hebron

Leander

Marcus

 

Visual:

Reagan

Leander

CTJ

Bowie

 

GE:

FloMo

Leander

Reagan

Hebron

 

So as you can see, my predictions for this are quite scattered. Part of my decision process for the top 8 groups was who would be competing for captions and this is what I got. I think this year will honestly go to the band that is most consitent overall even if that means 1 or possibly no captions. I decided Leander was 1st because they could very well be 2nd in ever caption by .1-.3 of a point and that seems to be the trend with them so far this year. FloMo has the upper hand on GE it would seem but an upset is surely possible and Music and Visual are extremely tight between the top 5 with music going quite possibly to any of the top 5, plausibly to two of the 6-8, and even strongly competed for by Cedar Park. Visual is nearly impossible to guess this year on an individual level as almost every top 12 band looks extremely impressive, almost profession, from the field so it goes to show design I think. Visually Reagan had done good as well as Bowie and Leander certainly has a shot with Round Rock not far behind.

 

This year is truly madness for an statistically or instinctually analysis based predictions so any bodies guess is as good as mine. Placement and caption wise, no one is certain and no one is safe, but one thing is for certain, the winning band will be by only a hair and possibly a point only splitting the top 3-6 bands and that the winner will be the best all around band. No longer is just musical prowess, visual spectacles, or GE powerhouse bands guaranteed their place. Only the bands with all three even have a shot for the title.

 

Tell me what you guys think and and if I left something out, over looked a fact, or just plain was being stupid feel free to let me know!

[trumpetdrumajorpower13]

It is that time for predictions!!!! I honestly haven't the slightest clue who takes the crown on Saturday night and I think about 9 bands could give their best performance and win. But here goes nothing:

 

Groupings (all alphabetical)

 

Top 5:

-Claudia Taylor Johnson

-Hebron

-James Bowie

-Leander

-Ronald Reagan

 

6-11:

-Cedar Park

-Flower Mound

-Marcus

-Round Rock

-The Woodlands

-Vandegrift

 

12-14:

-Cedar Ridge

-Hendrickson

-Vista Ridge

 

Captions (Top 3 in alphabetical order)

 

Music:

-Hebron

-Leander

-Ronald Reagan

 

Visual:

-Leander

-Ronald Reagan

-Round Rock

 

General Effect:

-Claudia Taylor Johnson

-Flower Mound

-James Bowie

[northtexasbandfan]

HornRank's predictions are in:

http://www.hornrank.com/2015/01/2015-san-antonio-tx-super-regional.html

I have a hard time conceiving of Marcus finishing in a spot with two digits.

[LHSax]

HornRank's predictions are in:

http://www.hornrank.com/2015/01/2015-san-antonio-tx-super-regional.html

I have a hard time conceiving of Marcus finishing in a spot with two digits.

 

While I don't read much into these...It does bring up a good point that no one has repeated since Bell in 08-09, which is awesome...we've also had 4 different champions in the last 4 years. I predict a 5th different one this year

[Hard Core Band Fan]

HornRank's predictions are in:

http://www.hornrank.com/2015/01/2015-san-antonio-tx-super-regional.html

I have a hard time conceiving of Marcus finishing in a spot with two digits.

 

I wouldn't count on Marcus landing that low. These guys are serious competitors and step up and fight.

[Band2013]

I like the overall observation on hornrank but I to think that Marcus will place higher, they are one of the top programs in the state and their music score has always guaranteed their safety. I love Dripping Springs but I don't see them beating Wakeland or (my wild card for finals) Hendrickson. As for the rest I can see them making finals but I'm still not sure who will walk away with a win.

[HighToes]

1. Hebron
2. Flower Mound
3. CTJ
4. Reagan
5. Leander
6. Bowie
7. Woodlands
8. Cedar Park
9. Round Rock
10. Marcus
11. Vangergrift
12. Owasso***
13. Cedar Ridge**
14. Vista Ridge**

Changed it-- Forgot Marcus and Vista!

GE: Hebron, CTJ, Bowie, Leander, Flower Mound

Music: Flower Mound, Hebron, Reagan

Visual: Hebron, CTJ, Reagan

**= potentially not in finals

In my opinion, there is a RIDICULOUS amount of groups that could take the last three spots:

 

• Dripping Springs
• Westlake
• Aledo
• Brazoswood
• Cy-Fair
• Hendrickson
• Morton Ranch
• Oak Ridge
• Spring
• Wakeland
• T.W. College Park

[Samuel Culper]

You've got quite a list of bands there thay will NOT finish ahead of Vista Ridge. :-)

[vincentlee1220]

LD Bell not in finals is a bit of a stretch. Because they're in Atlanta.

 

And as an alumni, come on, at least put Vista Ridge in the bubble