2015 BOA San Antonio Predictions

[Rubisco]

Yeah, it sucks performing early, but I don't think a group like Vandegrift has much to worry about. They just need to declare themselves as one of the top 14 bands, which I'm sure they'll do. The main point of prelims is determining who makes it to finals. Determining the class champions and ranking the top bands is secondary to that. For most groups, giving a good enough prelims performance to make it into finals should be their main goal. Besides, you could probably be ranked 10th in prelims at this contest and still have a shot at medaling in finals.

[Hard Core Band Fan]

 

Quite honestly I think an incomplete show can actually be more competitive than a complete show.  Think about it, Band A spends 50 hours putting 8 minutes on the field, Band B spends 50 hours putting 6 1/2 minutes on the field.....which do you think is going to look and sound cleaner?  The incomplete show might lose GE points if intended effects are lost without all the missing pieces in place, but if the show is designed to be performed in smaller iterations of the final product (ie. creating special "tag endings" that can be tacked on to the end of the incomplete show to give it a completed feel) the shorter show will look more polished and function as a completed project of its own.

 

That's true and also, most likely the ones that haven't fielded their full show haven't been working much on that last section yet and are behind the curve. Then instead of fine tuning their complete show, they're spending time just learning the remainder of their show and trying to catch up with the pack. Sure, they're not going to peak too soon, but they have a much larger task ahead of them.

 

I've seen bands that I've been involved with having to wait on their drill writers to produce the final drill so that they can learn and field the full program. The creative types don't necessarily understand deadlines and urgency. Two weeks until San Antonio? Plenty of time to finish the drill and leave you a week to learn it. No problem.

[FloMoParent]

That's true and also, most likely the ones that haven't fielded their full show haven't been working much on that last section yet and are behind the curve. Then instead of fine tuning their complete show, they're spending time just learning the remainder of their show and trying to catch up with the pack. Sure, they're not going to peak too soon, but they have a much larger task ahead of them.

 

I've seen bands that I've been involved with having to wait on their drill writers to produce the final drill so that they can learn and field the full program. The create types don't necessarily understand deadlines and urgency. Two weeks until San Antonio? Plenty of time to finish the drill and leave you a week to learn it. No problem.

I know that FloMo scrapped their show ending from SA last year and put in a new one for GN.  I don't think a show is ever complete until the last competition.  The designers and directors are always tweaking, twisting, changing, and challenging the performers (and prop builders) until the very end.

[Bandnerd03]

I've honestly never even heard of Owasso until this year. Is this a relatively new emerging band doing really well this year? I know they existed before, but i've seen a lot of people talking about them this year specifically. I really want to watch their show now, and see why people are talking so highly of them. (absolutely no disrespect to them intended). 

 

EDIT 1: Oh, they're from Oklahoma, no wonder I didn't know about them...

 

EDIT 2: OK last post about Owasso, but I watched their show and their first

movement has the same music as Westlake's 2nd movement! I think that's

pretty coincidental!

 

Owasso made the trip to San Antonio in 2004 and took 3rd place. That was an impressive show. I don't think they'll place that high this year but they should definitely contend for a Finals spot. 

 

2004 Results:

 

1st: Ronald Reagan 92.90

2nd: Churchill 91.50

3rd: Owasso 89.65

[clarinetnerd]

My guess is:

 

1.CTJ

2. Reagan

3. Flower Mound

4. The Woodlands

5. Marcus

6. Leander

7. James Bowie

8. Hebron

9. Cedar Park

10. Round Rock

11. Vandegrift

12. Hendrickson

13. Vista Ridge

14. Westlake

[beowulf]

I've sat on the 50 right by the press box, but it isn't my favorite place.  The reason is because there are a lot of band parents who will sit there in packs and then, when their kids' bands perform, yell the whole time in an attempt to influence the judges.  They don't bother to listen to their kids' shows, they just yell.  It ruins it for anyone in that area who is trying to enjoy the performances.  Better is to sit on the upper level.  It's practicially empty during prelims, you get a better view of the field, and the sound carries well.

[snares]

I usually sit to the right about halfway up, which is usually a pretty good place to sit. Sometimes you get a lot of auxiliary sound (drumline, metal percussion instruments) sitting up there but it depends on how far up you go

[snares]

Wow, most of the norther bands perform pretty dang early

[bingogooberman]

Having just come from region 24 uil, I think Hebron will leapfrog flower mound and take the title, with flo mo, Ronald Reagan and woodlands battling it out for the rest of the medals

[Fwguard17]

1. Reagan

2. Flower mound

3. Hebron

4. CTJ

5. Marcus

6. Woodlands

7. Round Rock

8. Bowie

9. Leander

10. Cedar Park

11. Vandegrift

12. Owasso

13. Vista Ridge

14. Hendrickson

 

 

Reagan sounds amazing. Their ballad is one of the best I've ever seen. And their singer is the best I've ever heard in marching band (cedar ridge from a few years ago is the only one even comparable). I haven't seen any of the dfw bands so I can only go off what I've heard from Arlington, but Reagan's show is the best I've seen in years.

[bandperson1997]

What bands do you guys think will be just outside of finals. Think 15-25.

[PSHSMom]

I think Plano East will definitely be in the 15-25.  I haven't seen enough other bands to see how they compare, but they have a great show this year.  I am no longer a PESH mom but still appreciate a good show!  I will see others this weekend at Duncanville if it isn't rained out!  

[beowulf]

1. Reagan

2. Flower mound

3. Hebron

4. CTJ

5. Marcus

6. Woodlands

7. Round Rock

8. Bowie

9. Leander

10. Cedar Park

11. Vandegrift

12. Owasso

13. Vista Ridge

14. Hendrickson

 

 

Reagan sounds amazing. Their ballad is one of the best I've ever seen. And their singer is the best I've ever heard in marching band (cedar ridge from a few years ago is the only one even comparable). I haven't seen any of the dfw bands so I can only go off what I've heard from Arlington, but Reagan's show is the best I've seen in years.

My top 12 would be the same as yours, and just about the same order.

 

I also believe that Reagan is the band to beat.  They've defreated the top bands from Houston, San Antonio, and Austin already.  The Lewisville bands are all that's left.  Then again, CTJ took prelims and some captions from them at BOA Houston, and I'm sure the Woodlands will be at full force next week as well.  Though Austin has more great marching bands that any other city in Texas, I just don't see any of them competing for the top spot this year.  But, you never know!  Leander certainly shocked a lot of people last year.

 

For the last two finals slots, in addition to Hendrickson and Vista Ridge, there are also Cedar Ridge, Coppell, Wakeland, SFA, Keller, Keller Central, Dripping Springs, Friendswood, and Plano East.  Yikes!

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

Well, predictions for this contest have been made a bit harder with the recent cancellation of the Duncanville Marching Festival.

From a non-predictions standpoint, it's sad that the contest was cancelled, but I completely agree with the concern for severe weather and the safety of the participants.

[Robert_Jordan]

My top 12 would be the same as yours, and just about the same order.

 

I also believe that Reagan is the band to beat.  They've defreated the top bands from Houston, San Antonio, and Austin already.  The Lewisville bands are all that's left.  Then again, CTJ took prelims and some captions from them at BOA Houston, and I'm sure the Woodlands will be at full force next week as well.  Though Austin has more great marching bands that any other city in Texas, I just don't see any of them competing for the top spot this year.  But, you never know!  Leander certainly shocked a lot of people last year.

 

For the last two finals slots, in addition to Hendrickson and Vista Ridge, there are also Cedar Ridge, Coppell, Wakeland, SFA, Keller, Keller Central, Dripping Springs, Friendswood, and Plano East.  Yikes!

 

Leander's show is fantastic.  I think it blows last year's Color Study show away.  I'd be shocked if they don't make the top 5.

[knoxisawesome348]

I'll go ahead and post mine. I'm only confident in groupings:

 

1. Leander

2. Hebron (music)

3. Reagan (visual)

4. Flower Mound (GE)

-------------------------

5. James Bowie

6. The Woodlands

7. CTJ

8. Marcus

9. Round Rock

-------------------------

10. Cedar Park

11. Vandegrift

-------------------------

12. Cedar Ridge

13. Owasso

14. Wakeland

 

 

Prelims:

4A Music: Hebron

4A Visual: Reagan

4A GE: Reagan

 

4A First: Reagan

4A Second: Flower Mound

4A Third: Hebron

 

3A Music: Cedar Park

3A Visual: Leander

3A GE: Leander

 

3A First: Leander

3A Second: Cedar Park

3A Third: Vandegrift

 

I'm pretty confident on the groupings and think there's going to be a lot of flip-flopping from prelims to finals. I'm really hoping those top 4 all perform clustered together near the end of finals because that seems to have been the key to high placements the past two years. I also for some reason have a gut feeling that Reagan will win prelims. I don't know why, but I think they'll really stick out in such a large field. Kind of stupid to predict prelims differently than finals, but we'll see how it shakes down.

[Fwguard17]

As I think over the past few year, notably CTJ last year, Marcus in 2012 and Bell in 2011, I feel like emotion has won out over precision or "cleverness". That makes sense as the activity is about effecting the audience (General Effect... Duh). I think this year it's a three horse race for the top between FloMo, Hebron, and Reagan. Those show have the emotional impact that the "clever" shows like Leander, or the precise shows like Marcus don't have (at least not as much).

 

Obviously that's all my opinion, but it seems to be the way things have gone in the recent past.

[Xenon]

I'll go ahead and post mine. I'm only confident in groupings:

 

1. Leander

2. Hebron (music)

3. Reagan (visual)

4. Flower Mound (GE)

Haha, It's a really crazy year when people can legitimately predict a winner with no captions and be taken seriously. It's mind blowing that this really could happen in 2 of the 4 TX regionals.

[Statebound]

 

 

1. Leander

2. Hebron (music)

3. Reagan (visual)

4. Flower Mound (GE)

-------------------------

 

I totally agree with your groupings. I've seen all but the Leander show live. I'll shuffle slightly and go:

 

1. FloMo

2. Hebron

3. Reagan

4. Leander

5. CTJ

 

I'm a music snob and, in that regard, I actually prefer the Hebron, Marcus and CTJ shows, but GE carries so much weight and I think that FloMo is going to dominate that. It's simply an extremely well constructed show.

 

 

 

[mellopwn1]

Dang, wish I was going. I think this is harder than usual to predict because 1) it's obviously more competitive at the top 2) the lack of videos means we don't know much about TW, Bowie, CTJ and other traditionally strong programs. I don't think we can count them out just yet.

 

As a side note, I think color study is a much better show – but I seem to be the outlier.

[LHSax]

The really tricky part about predicting this contest is the historical peaking of a lot bands this year. 

 

You have the traditional powers (bands that have been near the top the last 10 years)

Woodlands

Marcus 

Bowie

 

The new powers (bands that have established themselves the last few years)

CTJ

Hebron

Leander

 

And the new contenders (bands that have had great success early this year)

Reagan (yes, theve been established for a while, but they're finally a contender this year)

Flowermound

 

Combine all these and you have a formula for a ridiculously unpredictable competition. I once made a post (about 4-5 years ago) that asked if TX bands had become too predictable, with Marcus/LD Bell dominating every competition for 4-5 years. Well that era has obviously ended and the chance for a band to really dominate over multiple years (what I called a "dynasty") really seems limited at this point. And I couldn't be more excited about that! This is gonna be fun!

[Hard Core Band Fan]

I saw Round Rock's full show for the first time last night and was very impressed. This show has real potential both visually and musically. I don't know if they'll have it top-tier ready by next Friday and Saturday, but I feel good about their chances in Indy. For the first time this year, I have seen the same impressive elements that they had at the 2013 Grand Nationals.

[bandamonium]

Dang, wish I was going. I think this is harder than usual to predict because 1) it's obviously more competitive at the top 2) the lack of videos means we don't know much about TW, Bowie, CTJ and other traditionally strong programs. I don't think we can count them out just yet.

 

As a side note, I think color study is a much better show – but I seem to be the outlier.

Had the privilege of being at the homecoming game for Bowie. They performed after the game and the rain started coming down. Reminded me a lot of their Westlake marching festival performance from 2013. Their energy was amazing! By far the best I've seen from them in some time. They've cleaned up quite well and I do believe that this late-blooming show has some potential to do some serious damage in San Antonio if they bring that kind of intensity next weekend. Their General Effect has been very strong all season, taking the caption in both of their competitions and their visuals have buffed out nicely. That energy and intensity brought back their dark Bowie sound and musicality they've been missing. Really great program. Hard to believe they could be anywhere from 1st to 10th in San Antonio, but the competition has been very tight all season!

[scoobydoo]

I saw Round Rock's full show for the first time last night and was very impressed. This show has real potential both visually and musically. I don't know if they'll have it top-tier ready by next Friday and Saturday, but I feel good about their chances in Indy. For the first time this year, I have seen the same impressive elements that they had at the 2013 Grand Nationals.

I think they just finished learning their closer earlier this week. I saw their show last night too and I agree. And a shout out to the Hendrickson band.

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

As a side note, I think color study is a much better show – but I seem to be the outlier.

 

You're not the only one. I still think that Color Study is one of the most well-designed shows that I have ever seen.

Choral Works has its moments (the opener and the ballad come to mind) and Leander is certainly performing fantastically, but overall Color Study has a better flow in my opinion.