2017 BOA San Antonio Super Regionals Predictions

[MadisonBandMan1]

Oh wow. Thank you for that. I just realized how involved our district is when it comes to music.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Four years ago*

[herbaflerb]

1. Avon H.S., IN
2. Flower Mound H.S., TX
3. The Woodlands H.S., TX
4. Leander H.S., TX
5. Hebron H.S., TX
6. Vandegrift H.S., TX

7. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

8. Cedar Park H.S., TX
9. Marcus H.S., TX
10. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX
11. James Bowie H.S., TX 

12. Winston Churchill H.S., TX

13. Round Rock H.S., TX
14. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

 

This year's going to be good. I'm excited to see what these bands have to bring to the table at San Antonio.

[vacon3`]

1. Avon H.S., IN

2. Flower Mound H.S., TX

3. The Woodlands H.S., TX

4. Leander H.S., TX

5. Hebron H.S., TX

6. Vandegrift H.S., TX

7. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

8. Cedar Park H.S., TX

9. Marcus H.S., TX

10. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

11. James Bowie H.S., TX 

12. Winston Churchill H.S., TX

13. Round Rock H.S., TX

14. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

 

This year's going to be good. I'm excited to see what these bands have to bring to the table at San Antonio.

Almost all of these bands, with the exception of Bowie, Churchill, and Vandegrift have been in Grand Nats finals in recent years. Very tough competition. 

[herbaflerb]

Almost all of these bands, with the exception of Bowie, Churchill, and Vandegrift have been in Grand Nats finals in recent years. Very tough competition. 

 

For sure. "Grand Nationals South" is always exciting but with Avon coming down brings BOA politics and very tough competition. Looking forward to it!

[LeanderMomma]

1. Avon H.S., IN

2. Flower Mound H.S., TX

3. The Woodlands H.S., TX

4. Leander H.S., TX

5. Hebron H.S., TX

6. Vandegrift H.S., TX

7. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

8. Cedar Park H.S., TX

9. Marcus H.S., TX

10. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

11. James Bowie H.S., TX 

12. Winston Churchill H.S., TX

13. Round Rock H.S., TX

14. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

 

This year's going to be good. I'm excited to see what these bands have to bring to the table at San Antonio.

 

As impressed as I was with Avon at Grand Nats, I just have to admit that I am really pulling for a Texas band to beat them in San Antonio.  If anyone can do it, a Texas band can!  I absolutely LOVE that Avon is coming down for this great super regional, and I predict that they will do an amazing job as always, but I want the gold medal so to speak, to stay in Texas.  

[MadisonBandMan1]

As impressed as I was with Avon at Grand Nats, I just have to admit that I am really pulling for a Texas band to beat them in San Antonio. If anyone can do it, a Texas band can! I absolutely LOVE that Avon is coming down for this great super regional, and I predict that they will do an amazing job as always, but I want the gold medal so to speak, to stay in Texas.

I completely agree with you. If anyone can do it, it will definitely be flomo. I have really high confidence in them with hoe unusually fast they rose up to god's. I do believe they will have the visual package this year too.

[TWHSParent]

Absolutely a Texas band can win - Hebron beat both Avon and Broken Arrow in GN semi-finals in 2015, and that was a major and well deserved accomplishment (I saw all 3 shows in-person and completely agreed with those placements). There are multiple programs in Texas that are talented and capable enough to win this contest. Avon is as well of course - they are outstanding.

[zururoua]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Leander, Vandegrift, The Woodlands, and CTJ could all beat Flomo and/or Avon. I highly doubt that will happen, especially not all of them, but I'm VERY impressed with the quality I've seen from all of these groups. Even with Harvey, I think TWHS is capable of having another very strong season and it may even drive them to be better than ever before. I'd guess Vandy, CTJ, and Leander are all dissatisfied with their results from last year (Leander and CTJ getting 6th and 9th at nationals, and Vandegrift getting bumped to 7th at SA) and will be relentless this season towards improving. I think Ronald Reagan may also be like this, but I haven't seen anything from them yet so I can't say for sure that they're in the mix JUST yet.

[takigan]

The 14 Bands attending BOA San Antonio that have made GN Finals in the last 5 years along with their most recent placements:
 

Avon - 2016 (2nd)

Cedar Park - 2016 (5th)

Claudia Taylor Johnson - 2016 (9th)

Flower Mound - 2014 (6th)

Hebron - 2015 (3rd)

Bowie - 2012 (6th)

Keller - 2015 (11th)

LD Bell - 2013 (10th)

Leander - 2016 (6th)

Marcus - 2013 (5th)

Ronald Reagan - 2016 (7th)

Round Rock - 2015 (7th)

The Woodlands - 2015 (6th)

Cedar Ridge - 2013 (11th)

Not surprisingly these 14 bands are also my own preseason "guess list" of finalists, except swap Cedar Ridge for Vandegrift.  I believe this is the first time the San Antonio lineup has contained 14 bands that have achieved GN Finalist placements in the preceding 5 seasons.

Biggest observation:  Texas has become exceptionally good at developing GN Finalists, but has lost its edge compared to past years in winning GN medals.  Avon on the other hand has medaled every single year for the past decade+ (In 2005 they got 4th)....based on that observation none of these bands should feasibly be able to touch Avon, except maaaaybe FloMo.  I will say if FloMo continues their upward trend of outdoing their previous year yet again as they have each year since Biskup came aboard, I can't see Avon prevailing against such a band of unprophesied capability.

I also have a hunch that Midwest bands are more effective than Texas ones in week 1 of November rather than week 2 (nationals).  The Midwestern bands have more summer hours racked up at the start of the early season (since many start rehearsing in June or July and don't start school until after Labor Day) and the later you go the colder the weather gets and the less effective rehearsals become up north, while Texas keeps their momentum going and the summer advantage of the northern bands is made less effective the further into Fall we go.  There's not enough evidence yet to develop much of a theory out of that though.

[Nny14]

 

 

 

 

 

Biggest observation: Texas has become exceptionally good at developing GN Finalists, but has lost its edge compared to past years in winning GN medals. Avon on the other hand has medaled every single year for the past decade+ (In 2005 they got 4th)....based on that observation none of these bands should feasibly be able to touch Avon, except maaaaybe FloMo. I will say if FloMo continues their upward trend of outdoing their previous year yet again as they have each year since Biskup came aboard, I can't see Avon prevailing against such a band of unprophesied capability.

That's not really a fair comparison as Texas rarely sends our strongest group to Nationals while Avon and Carmel are always there. I'm fairly confident LD Bell (2011), Marcus and The Woodlands (2012), Hebron (2013), CTJ (2014), and Flower Mound (2015 & 2016) would have been medalists had they gone to nationals.

[takigan]

That's not really a fair comparison as Texas rarely sends our strongest group to Nationals while Avon and Carmel are always there. I'm fairly confident LD Bell (2011), Marcus and The Woodlands (2012), Hebron (2013), CTJ (2014), and Flower Mound (2015 & 2016) would have been medalists had they gone to nationals.

 

First off, I believe the "always there" thing is a part of their success for the same reason it was for LD Bell in the 2000's.  I don't think bands like Carmel or Avon would even exist at their current ability level in the state of Indiana without BOA at their front door.   Though looking back at old scores it seems you may be right about the "Texas's best" thing. And now I'm doubling up on my research to atone for myself, lol.

 

From 2002-2010, Texas was sending oodles of San Antonio medalists to Nats where they in turn would medal there as well (Ronald Reagan '03/'05, Bell '05/'06/'07/'08/'09/'10, Westfield '03...plus TWHS who never managed to medal then but came extremely close a few times), but from 2011-now for whatever reason that hasn't been the case with the exception of The Woodlands' Eagle in 2013 and Hebron's bronze in 2015.

 

Marcus would certainly have medaled in 2012...they might've even won.  The Woodlands?...probably not.  It's easy to assume they would've because they won the next year in 2013, but with Carmel and BA right there at the cusp in scoring, TWHS could just as easily have ended up 4th that year. Especially after going from 2nd @ SA to 4th @ GN in 2011 with the exact same bands ahead of them (BA,Avon,Carmel).....--all bands that they'd never once managed to beat from '06-'11, placing 4th or lower behind them every single time.

 

Hebron 2013...sure, I could've seen them pulling off 2nd or 3rd considering how well the Woodlands did. And with 6 TX bands in finals I'm sure someone else would've medaled, haha.

 

Johnson 2014....yeah, I could see this in the winner's circle as well.  That was a spectacular year for CTJ and probably one of my favorite shows by any band ever....but I don't think it would've placed higher than 3rd at Nats with Tarpon and BA both having similarly stellar years. I think those 3 bands would've been a solid 2 whole points ahead of the rest of the pack though.

 

Flower Mound 2015...With the right shakeup/performance time, probably. I can't see FloMo pulling off the same November surge Hebron did that year, not with their recent reputation of peaking early....2015 was BA's to win...though I think it would've been Avon that FloMo outed for 3rd, not Hebron.

 

Flower Mound 2016 - Oh most definitely.  That show would've changed marching band forever had it made it to Nats.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Like I said, 2016 was the year flomo became gods, so what's next with them? Doing the impossible? I swear if I saw them and didn't know better, I'd think they were a drum core...

 

Seriously though, they do seem to have the most money. I have been up there and it is literally nothing but mansions. The school is absolutely beautiful too.

[JTApex]

 

The school is absolutely beautiful too.

Interesting note. FloMo's and Hebron's main campuses are identical (not that school design makes any difference in Band quality).

[LeanderMomma]

Interesting note. FloMo's and Hebron's main campuses are identical (not that school design makes any difference in Band quality).

 

I also don't think that "money" makes as big of a difference as some might think.  I heard from a Flowermound student that they do tons of fundraising and that their props and uniforms are actually what he called "cheap!"  The school itself is in a wealthy area, as is Vandegrift and the Woodlands, but that does not guarantee anything.  Case in point, LEANDER!!!     While there are some wealthy neighborhoods in our area, there are also PLENTY of low income neighborhoods as well.  We are what you might call, a "well-rounded" school.    But the bottom line is, each school only gets a certain amount of money from the district and it does not matter if it is a wealthy area or not.  Money does not a fantastic band make.  Plenty of examples that show otherwise!  And I know for a fact that Leander does an INSANE amount of fundraising.  I'm not saying that a wealthy school district does not have it's perks, but I don't think it makes as huge a difference as one might think.  

[Nny14]

 

Like I said, 2016 was the year flomo became gods, so what's next with them? Doing the impossible?

In my opinion developing a visual program thats more challenging and varied while remaining the cleanliness we saw in 2016. They may have won the visual award in Texas but I don't think that would have been the case if theyd gone to Nats. I think that should be their goal if they wish to be on top of BA and Avon and take the eagle home, which I'm certain it is.

[Kiddo2.0]

1. Avon H.S., IN

2. Flower Mound H.S., TX

3. The Woodlands H.S., TX

4. Leander H.S., TX

5. Hebron H.S., TX

6. Vandegrift H.S., TX

7. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

8. Cedar Park H.S., TX

9. Marcus H.S., TX

10. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

11. James Bowie H.S., TX 

12. Winston Churchill H.S., TX

13. Round Rock H.S., TX

14. Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

 

This year's going to be good. I'm excited to see what these bands have to bring to the table at San Antonio.

I think Hendrickson H.S. has a good shot at those last 4-5 places with any of those bands, and based on what Hebron H.S. does with their music, I would have moved them above Leander H.S., but honestly this competition is too hard to predict accurately. I wish they had multiple prelims rounds like they do at grand nats, as this competition is arguably just as competitive if not more. If nothing else, that additional round would help prove consistency 

[AvonDad]

"I also have a hunch that Midwest bands are more effective than Texas ones in week 1 of November rather than week 2 (nationals).  The Midwestern bands have more summer hours racked up at the start of the early season (since many start rehearsing in June or July and don't start school until after Labor Day) and the later you go the colder the weather gets and the less effective rehearsals become up north, while Texas keeps their momentum going and the summer advantage of the northern bands is made less effective the further into Fall we go.  There's not enough evidence yet to develop much of a theory out of that though."

 

Takigan - I found your hunch interesting on the Midwestern bands and had not thought of it that way before.  Our kiddos started back to school the last week of July and have been in class for the past 7 weeks already and do have regular after school practices.  One of the most memorable practice full runs we got to see was a couple of years ago after 3 hrs of practice on the field in 26 degree weather.  Some of the kids looked like Sta-Puff Marshmallow Men and others in t-shirts and shorts, for who know why.  I think the only thing in tune was the creaking of the bleachers when walking up them.  The energy poured off the field as they played, it sounded awful, we were freezing in our seats, but it was a great rehearsal.  That's all we know here and now I'm getting jealous of warm weather in Nov.    

[zururoua]

Rehearsing in Texas when it's 105° and 70+% humidity would be pretty awful I imagine. I wonder what Texas groups would sound like early on if they had the nicer weather that Midwest bands get...

 

Cold is obviously bad too, but in Texas the 8 hour rule restricts most of the time that bands could theoretically get during the nicer fall weather.

[takigan]

 

Takigan - I found your hunch interesting on the Midwestern bands and had not thought of it that way before. Our kiddos started back to school the last week of July and have been in class for the past 7 weeks already and do have regular after school practices. One of the most memorable practice full runs we got to see was a couple of years ago after 3 hrs of practice on the field in 26 degree weather. Some of the kids looked like Sta-Puff Marshmallow Men and others in t-shirts and shorts, for who know why. I think the only thing in tune was the creaking of the bleachers when walking up them. The energy poured off the field as they played, it sounded awful, we were freezing in our seats, but it was a great rehearsal. That's all we know here and now I'm getting jealous of warm weather in Nov.

Just looked at y'all's school calendar. Very different than I expected, though it does resemble the way I think school districts should fashion their calendars (with shorter summers and more scattered vacations)....Is this a recent change? I've known for awhile Avon started school earlier than most Midwest bands but had no idea it was in late July.

 

And comparing it to y'all's Charms band calendar, I also realized Avon does one more unique thing.....Y'all don't do the brutal 3-a-day 40-50 hour/week preseason grind that most other bands do.....rather instead you do several 3 hour rehearsals throughout May (4-6 hours/week) into the last day of school, then more rehearsals thru June and July (roughly 10-12 hours/week) with a 2 week break at the beginning of July. Then once the school year starts the schedule actually gets more intense (about 10-15 hours per week of rehearsal depending on the week). Kind of an interesting approach if you ask me. Makes me think of a slow cooker left on for 6 months straight from May-Nationals.

[LeanderMomma]

Kind of an interesting approach if you ask me. Makes me think of a slow cooker left on for 6 months straight from May-Nationals.

That's a great analogy. "Slow cooker." We all know how amazing food tastes when it's been in the crockpot all day! Now we know Avon's secret.

[LeanderMomma]

One of the most memorable practice full runs we got to see was a couple of years ago after 3 hrs of practice on the field in 26 degree weather.

:-O say what??!!

[zururoua]

I can't wait to see how this goes down, I'll be even more excited after the smaller Texas regionals, after we know what's really going on.

[TWHSParent]

I can remember marching practices and outdoor contests 30 years ago when I was in marching band in the midwest - just as AvonDad describes. October/November is the antithesis of the Texas heat - shivering on the field, struggling to stay in tune, and for we small bands, shivering in big group huddles in the open-back, metal stands with the windchill somewhere in the teens or lower while the contest finishes and awards are handed out. Memories.... I'm also guessing that's why I now see some contests hand out small band awards earlier, just so they don't have to stick around to the end in that type of weather.

[herbaflerb]

I think Hendrickson H.S. has a good shot at those last 4-5 places with any of those bands, and based on what Hebron H.S. does with their music, I would have moved them above Leander H.S., but honestly this competition is too hard to predict accurately. I wish they had multiple prelims rounds like they do at grand nats, as this competition is arguably just as competitive if not more. If nothing else, that additional round would help prove consistency 

 

I agree. I've seen most of the 2016 shows from these schools and they're all so good.