abtwitch

I will start doing my rundown for San Antonio, but a little differently. I have 65 bands out of the 84, but will post one block a day with the final Saturday block being posted next Friday. The programs I have selected are top 50 or extra class A/AA medal contenders that could place out. Here's block one to kick things off! Friday, Panel 1: 8:15am Forney (Forney ISD, Forney) AA Coming off two class championships in BOA, Forney is my favorite to take the class AA title and perform in exhibition in finals. 8:30am United (United ISD, Laredo) AAAA Their 10th place finish in finals (9th before penalties) was surprising to say the least, but I think they will have cleaned up quite a bit and will have a fair shot at top 50 here. 9:00am East View (Georgetown ISD, Georgetown) AA(A) This is one of the groups on the edge of AA and AAA, if they remain AA they have a shot at taking a class medal. 9:30am Katy (Katy ISD, Katy) AAAA Coming off of their first state appearance last fall, I expect Katy to place well here. BOA Houston placements are hard to go off of to get a feel for how they’re doing this year because of the massive bubble, but they seem to be strong again this year. 10:00am Obra D. Tompkins (Katy ISD, Katy) AAAA Earlier in the season, I mentioned how I wanted Tompkins to break out. They did fantastically at BOA Houston only one spot out of finals and ahead of Seven Lakes and later tying 7L at the Katy ISD Marching Festival in prelims before dropping below them in the finals. 10:15am New Braunfels (New Braunfels ISD, New Braunfels) AAAA For the Austin rundown, I said they’d either be stronger or the same as last year, and they definitely were stronger from my point of view and score-wise. They have a beautiful space show this year and are performing the heck out of it.

I knew I was forgetting someone! I’d personally put both CS and GP over Willis still

Here are my predictions for who it think will qualify for state (in alphabetical order, S.A. = state alternate) Area A (4): Bel Air Eastlake El Dorado J.M. Hanks Eastwood (S.A.) Area B (4): Lebanon Trail Lovejoy Wakeland Wylie East The Colony (S.A.) Area C (5): Forney Highland Park Midlothian Poteet Royse City Red Oak (S.A.) Area D (3): Dripping Springs McCallum Weiss Pflugerville (S.A.) Area E (2): Foster Friendswood Shadow Creek (S.A.) Area F (4): Aledo Birdville Burleson Centennial Colleyville Heritage Southwest (S.A.) Area G (5): Gregory Portland Lopez Pioneer Rio Grande City Sharyland Victoria West (S.A.) Area H (4): Cedar Park McCollum Rouse Tom Glenn Wagner (S.A.) Area I (3): College Station Porter Tomball Galena Park (S.A.) Edit: I forgot Galena Park existed

I'd really be on the lookout for Licking Valley, they're going to Grand Nationals and have a great shot at finals.

There are 4 state finalist-caliber programs at this contest and only 3 state spots. I could see Weiss, Dripping Springs, McCallum and Pflugerville all making finals, but if I had to leave one out it would be Pflugerville.

Don’t sleep on College Station, they’ve had an incredible past 2 seasons

Impossible, if every remaining band gets a 1, we'd still only be at 6 qualifiers from D and E

With the results coming in so far from Region 9, Area I is now capped at 3 bands advancing. This makes it all but impossible for 5A state to have more than 35 qualifiers.

Weiss was AA because of not having seniors, so I'm assuming that the senior class will push them over to AAA. They could still be AA, however.

Updated the sheet to reflect the drops and time changes https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rCO4c8ZW-xmg9LLQZimAKhYCkPGE6TTtEnsVp-Hg-5s/edit?usp=sharing

After this weekend, I will give my rundown the bands. So much to unpack for this insanely stacked regional and I'm gonna need a lot of time for this one.

You are correct, looks like I miscounted

I'm very excited for this contest, I plan on driving up from Austin the morning of, even with the Westwood vs. Leander game the night before. I'm also bringing my college friend from San Diego to enlighten him on the beast that is Texas band. Before this, the biggest bands he's even heard of were Arcadia, so this will be mind-blowing for him to say the least.

Biggest surprise from region for me was Plainview receiving a 2 after a strong showing at BOA Midland. This marks their first 2 after 81 years of sweepstakes. This also knocks out a state spot keeping Area A from 25. Another surprise was just last night when I attended the tail-end of region 6 east. Wylie proved that they are a program on the rise while Cooper received a 2 (which did not surprise me based on their performance, but was disappointing). I see Wylie making finals at Area and maybe even being state-alternate.

I'm surprised there isn't a thread for this yet, but at the same time not really. 24 bands advance from region (Wichita Falls and Abilene Cooper advance by default due to 2 from each region rule, 22 other 1s), 4 state spots this year. I fully expect El Paso to take all the state spots, with my top 4 being: Bel Air J.M. Hanks Eastlake El Dorado

If we look past Roma we see something very exciting, all but 3 bands (other than Roma) in the area made 1s at region. Bringing Roma back in, this makes the total number of bands qualifying for area 29, which means if Roma didn't get the penalty we would have 6 bands advancing from Area G. While no one is directly effected by Roma's absence since they would have been the 30th band to push the total to 6, we could see it effect the state competition. Based on my projections (and we'll know for sure by this evening), we're looking at 35 5A bands qualifying for state. This means that potentially this single penalty could not only prevent Roma from making finals, but also another entirely different program likely across the state because of the 36+ rule (12 make finals). This is very disappointing for the Roma, the fans, and whoever ends up on the outskirts of finals. It's time for some change in UIL leadership.

Finalist Contenders: Wakeland Weiss Dripping Springs McCallum Lebanon Trail Wylie East Lovejoy Poteet Forney Highland Park Friendswood Aledo Burleson Centennial Colleyville Heritage Roma Pioneer Rouse Cedar Park Lone Star Pflugerville Choosing only 10-12 from that list is tough, but here's my best shot: 1) Cedar Park (incredible finals performance trend) 2) Rouse (will be very close, will probably win prelims) 3) Wakeland (having an incredible season so far) bubble (yes, already) Aledo, Burleson Centennial, Colleyville Heritage, Forney, Dripping Springs, Friendswood, Highland Park, Lebanon Trail, Lone Star, McCallum, Pflugerville, Pioneer, Poteet, Roma, Weiss, Wylie East I'll do more in depth predictions after area.

Friendswood by probably the largest landslide at all Area competitions this season

I'd say The Colony over Lone Star and Lovejoy and maybe even Lebanon Trail.

It's looking like Foster will take the second state spot, but Waller, Paetow, Barbers Hill, or Shadow Creek might sneak in as well.

Foster with a 2 point lead on 6A Tomball Memorial bodes well for them in Area E. It's not a very dense field, but only 2 bands will more than likely move on to state and one of those thoughts will easily go to Friendswood.

The state contenders right now in alphabetical order (in my opinion) Aledo - made state finals in 2017, strong showing at BOA DFW Birdville - qualified for state in 2017, pretty good showing at BOA McAllen, won the Mustang Nightrider Burleson Centennial - very strong showing at Mansfield, on the rise group known for indoor, state alternates in 2017, just placed above Aledo at Birdville Chisholm Trail - strong start of the season at HEB, strong finals appearance at Birdville Colleyville Heritage - very strong showing at Mansfield, INCREDIBLE 4th place showing at Birdville, contender for area champion and state finals Granbury - significantly lower placement than BC and CH but still solid, BOA Midland finals Southwest - made state in 2017, slow start at HEB, but placed well at Broken Arrow Last year I called CH for state and things are looking good for them, my only lock at the moment. Aledo will probably make it too, but their results from Birdville are slightly concerning. BC was behind Aledo at BOA DFW by a significant margin, we'll get a better idea of where both stand this weekend at BOA Waco. Birdville and Southwest will be fighting it out for the last spot and it's super hard to choose only one. Right now I'm leaning towards Birdville because of their stronger showing against Oklahoma bands 2 weekends ago compared to Southwest. It just does not seem like Granbury's or Chisholm Trail's year to me, although they could definitely surprise us. 1) Colleyville Heritage 2) Aledo 3) Burleson Centennial 4) Birdville -------------------------- 5) Southwest 6) Granbury 7) Chisholm Trail -------------------------- 8) Boswell 9) Azle 10) Saginaw Also competing for the last 3 spots: Newman Smith, Legacy

Ditto on what principalagent said, I get it better than a lot of other programs (other than maybe Timber Creek, what is it state alternates for 10 years now?). Not to mention Westwood was also state alternate my senior year when Area D was two programs getting 1s off from taking 6 bands to state. I get it.

I think you need to get over what happened 2 years ago and focus on the now, trashing on another band is never a good look

Permian is making the trip from Odessa as well