bancl

It's Area Week! Here are my revised predictions: 1 - 2 Coppell & Keller No changes here. Coppell followed up HEB with a strong showing at the DFW regional. Personally I think that their show isn't quite as strong as their presentation last year, but it's hard to follow up that amazing show! They have exceptional soloists, and the flow of their program works really well. They are incredible performers and will end up as one of the final 12 at UIL State again this year without question! Keller showed up to Duncanville and gave a Wakeland group having one of the best seasons in the state all it could handle, with an overall tie in prelims and a tie in music in finals. There were a lot of doubters after their early season issues, but Keller is doing what Keller does: cleaning, making changes, peaking late, and flat out playing as well as anyone in the state. Their visual program has made huge strides since early season as well. Both of these programs are like two heavyweight fighters who in their own ways took a bit to find their footing in the opening rounds and are now hitting their stride. Expect they will both come out swinging. 2-5 Waxahachie, Timber Creek, LD Bell Waxahachie once again has a great playing group that moves really well with fantastic soloists. Their product may be slightly below the demand level of the first two, but you almost don't care because they are amazingly clean and perform with a sense of professionalism and elegance that they have become known for. They are an easy lock to advance to state. Timber Creek had their whole show on the field in mid-September, and has done nothing but clean since then. Again, the demand in their show (especially visually) is not at the top level, but the excellence and musicianship they show should put them solidly in the advancing group. LD Bell has a really well designed show that they are performing well, which helped them finish ahead of some groups they haven't been ahead of in a while. They don't have the level of demand or musical depth that the top two have, but by no means is their product weak. In fact, they perform at a level that may be stronger than their depth due to great design, great teaching, and great efforts of the members. Look for them to make it back to state! 6-? Southlake Carroll, Haltom, Lake Ridge, Duncanville, Keller Central, Lake Highlands This last spot could go to ANYONE! SCL is a returning 6A finalist, but isn't having the year they did last year. They haven't competed in a couple of weeks, so we'll see if they have been able to clean enough to get credit on UIL sheets. Haltom plays exceptionally well, and has a show that is one of their better designs in recent years. Lake Ridge had a nice showing at DMI this past weekend and with the right run can work their way up. Duncanville has a much better show design than the past few years, and could find itself right in the mix. Lake Highlands is on the rise, and made finals at area last year. Keller Central has a cool show and was a finalist at the N Texas BOA Regional. They are always a finalist in Area B, and should be again.

Wakeland and Keller actually tied for first in prelims. Wakeland won on a judges preference tiebreaker.

It's been interesting reading all of the Keller thoughts on this thread. Some things to note: they had one judge who dumped them in both prelims and finals this past weekend at the DFW regional. They got a 14.00 in Individual Visual in prelims, and the same judge put them last in Visual GE in finals. Clearly someone who just didn't like what they were presenting that day. They got a 16.8 in individual visual in finals, probably a more accurate placement. With all of their issues they were still 4th in music, and 5th in Visual GE without their real tarps and props. If the prelims judge had simply been the average of the other judges, they finish 5th in prelims, and only .1 behind Coppell. It's been noted here that Keller traditionally is one of the groups that peaks right at the end of the season. It should also be noted that they have never had their entire show on the field this early in the year. This is a group that usually only has two or so weeks to clean that now has four. I think you can make similar arguments for Leander and Rouse. Both schools have had their challenges, but the Rouse staff is one of the best in the business, and will no doubt have them ready to go come BOA SA. And while there have been staff changes at Leander, those kids and that program KNOW how to perform when it counts. I'm going out on a limb here, but I'll say that Keller doesn't just make finals, but is in the top 5 for their panel. Rouse makes finals as well, and if Leander can get well and keep pushing they continue their finals streak as well.

It's still early, but here is a shot at this one. 1 - 2 Coppell & Keller These two are interchangeable for 1st and 2nd. No surprises here. I do think that the gap between them and everyone else is wider than it ever has been. These two are locks to advance, and quite frankly locks to make State Finals. 2-5 Southlake Carroll, Waxahachie, Timber Creek The three other advancers from the last go-around are only getting better. Waxahachie has a new design team, and still sounds amazing as always. Timber Creek had a good showing at HEB, and despite not having the difficulty level of Coppell or Keller moves and plays well. Carroll is headed to GN this year, and as the other returning state finalist is an advancer until they prove they aren't. 6-7 Haltom/LD Bell Haltom sounds much improved over last year! They have a challenging show that if they can grow into it will be competitive. LD Bell once again has a great design and wonderful percussion. It will depend on if their winds can match the excellence of the groups above them.

I feel like this is the case for Coppell and Keller in particular. Coppell clearly has more show to put on the field, which will help their GE scores. I feel that their musical and visual difficulty is higher than Marcus, but not as clean right now. If they can get it clean, I can see them overtaking Marcus by season's end. Keller had the most demand of anyone at HEB on Saturday, and thus the most dirt. They had way more show on the field than they usually do this time of year, and it sounds like they will be performing the entire thing at the regional. They were 3rd in overall effect without any guard uniforms, tarps, or actual flags. They have a lot of work to do to get their show clean, but they are notorious for being a program that can do just that and peak right at the end of the season. Same as with Coppell, IF they can get all of the fast drill and hard music clean they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Schedule as of 9/7/22 Byron Nelson High School - 8:30 Royse City High School - 8:45 Timber Creek High School - 9:00 Legacy High School - 9:15 Plano East High School - 9:30 BREAK - 9:45 Chisholm Trail High School - 10:00 Fossil Ridge High School - 10:15 The Colony High School - 10:30 Allen High School - 10:45 Irving High School - 11:00 BREAK - 11:15 Richardson High School - 11:30 Berkner High School - 11:45 James Martin High School - 12:00 Midlothian Heritage High School - 12:15 BREAK - 12:30 Keller Central High School - 1:30 Lake Ridge High School - 1:45 JJ Pearce High School - 2:00 Lake Highlands High School - 2:15 Ponca City (OK) High School - 2:30 BREAK - 2:45 Canyon High School - 3:00 Permian High School - 3:15 Waxahachie High School - 3:30 Keller High School - 3:45

There are rumblings that there could be a staff change at Keller as a result of the head director opening at Timber Creek. It will be interesting to see if that affects their plans at all.

That's Keller Central, not Keller High.

Do you think the west Texas bands really want to have to mess with Keller again? And now add Timber Creek to that mix? In 2014 they were able to successfully get the old Area A split into zones just to avoid that.

UIL judging is a joke.

Area-Eve Predictions: 1) Keller 2) Coppell 3) Waxahachie 4) LD Bell 5) Carrol First Two Out: Timber Creek & Duncanville

I just heard that prelims was Keller’s first full run of their show in full uniform! Can’t wait to see what it looks like at Area after a week to clean.

It was announced at the beginning of finals that Keller and Waxahachie actually tied for music in prelims. Looking at the recap Keller was ahead in 3 of the 4 captions, so this seems to have been a tabulation error. If a tiebreaker had been applied, it seems Keller should have won music.

This right here. Saying that it's preordained does a disservice to the hard work that students in every program put in day after day. It's true that the top 4-6 bands in the metroplex hasn't changed much in the last 8 years or so, but that's because those same 4-6 bands have also gotten BETTER. FloMo, Hebron, Marcus, Keller, Coppell etc. today are WAY better than FloMo, Hebron, Marcus, Keller, Coppell, etc. from 10 years ago. To catch them, a program has to make a huge leap. Waxahachie and Prosper are great examples. Both were smaller 5A bands not too long ago, and with hard work and great community support they made the big leap and have been SMC Finalists and GN Finalists respectively. It can be done!

I completely forgot about Haltom. You are right, they will ABSOLUTELY be in the conversation!

Now that it looks like only 5 bands advance, I'll take a swing at this one. First 4 Advancing to State (in alpha order) Bell - COVID or not, this is a really good band. Great music, well taught, and a culture that knows how to make it happen. They move well, their guard is wonderful, and they have a show that is enjoyable to watch. Bell will be near the top of the area. Coppell - They are moving better than they have, and simply have too many great musicians on the field. Their show is pretty woodwind heavy, but as long as it's clean they should have no problem advancing. They have an experienced staff, and a great community supporting them. Director changes are always tough, but the members at Coppell are pros. See you in San Antonio Coppell! Keller - They have been a finalist at every show they have attended since 2015. Local shows, regionals, super regionals, 6A State, Grand Nationals. Every one. If the improvement we saw from HEB to the DFW Regional is any indication, they are just now hitting their stride. Their show is incredibly hard, but their reputation for peaking at exactly the right time is well-earned. With a clean show and one of the top brass sections you will find anywhere, they should easily advance and could find themselves as the favorites to come out on top in Area B. Waxahachie - Don't let the results at BOA DFW fool you... these guys are good. Let's not forget they were a state FINALIST in 2018, and won* this area last time around. Their show is definitely more UIL-friendly, and with no shortage of great musicians they will likely find themselves headed to state yet again. Spot No. 5 contenders: Carroll: They have some great momentum coming off of their first BOA Finals appearance. They've got a cool show, and are clearly building a solid program. They've been ahead of perennial Area Runner-Up Timber Creek two weeks in a row. Likely the front-runner for spot No. 5 at this point. Timber Creek: For the last decade, Timber Creek has been the first band out in Area finals. Surely at some point their luck is going to change right? This is the best show that TC has done in a long time, led by their WGI finalist percussion section. They have nice feature moments for nearly every section, and the sax ensemble in the opening is fantastic! As menioned above, they've been just behind SLC the first two weeks out, so let's see what they can do leading up to Area. Duncanville: Want to talk about history? The first SMC was held in 1979, and Duncanville was there. The only years they have not been there were 1982 and last year due to COVID. Only Sundown HS has more appearances at the SMC. Their very recent history as well as early season results may lead you to believe that they may be on the outside looking in this year, but counting them out entirely is foolish. Keller Central: They are one of the smaller bands in Area B this year, but consistently have creative and unique shows and this one is no exception. If they can be really, really clean they have a good shot at upsetting some of the larger groups and grabbing that last spot. Lake Highlands: Do not underestimate this group. They won their opening show this year in Midlothian, and their new director is the same person that turned Highland Park into a 5A powerhouse. They have great players, and I expect that they will show up to play at Area. Yeah, that's 9 bands for 5 spots and only 10 bands make finals. I'm sure this will change in the days leading up to the contest. There may be other areas that are more "top-heavy", but this has to be the most competitive area in the state this year. There are plenty of others that didn't get listed here that are finalist contenders, and if you make finals at this show you've got a shot to advance with a great run.

It's interesting to see Keller being blown off as a non-competitor after one contest where they had no working electronics in finals, and only 3 out of 5 parts of their show on the field. Keller had one of the more complex designs on the field at HEB, but got beaten by groups that had most if not all of their show on the field and were cleaner. As close as the spreads were, if Keller's electronics work they are 3rd at worst at HEB. They have been a finalist at the SMC every year since 2014 (covid excluded) and at BOA SA every year since 2015. They are well known for playing the long game, and I think when Area B rolls around they will still be the ones to beat.

They are most certainly on the rise! It looks like they are getting a new director this year, and word on the street is that someone from a major 6A powerhouse just down the street from them is headed that way.

Wakeland HS also was invited! I hear there's one more BIG Texas school that got an invite but hasn't publicly announced yet.

Area B will once again be an absolute bloodbath. With 5-6 bands advancing, you have to pick from: Coppell Duncanville Haltom Keller Keller Central LD Bell Mansfield Martin Plano East Prosper Summit Timber Creek Waxahachie So... who wins this one?

Another big change is that UIL is now taking 14 bands to finals if there are more than 40 bands in prelims, which there will be. There are 8 bands that have been a finalist at both UIL State and the BOA Super Regional every time for the past 4 years and should be considered locks: FloMo Hebron Marcus Vandegrift Leander Reagan Keller The Woodlands Leander is now 5A, so take them off the list (and add them to the likely 5A state champion list!) CTJ didn't attend in 2016 due to Grand Nats, but is obviously a lock as well. Vista Ridge didn't advance in 2016, but as the defending champion is clearly a lock. That's 9 bands that barring a disaster will be performing the 2nd day. The only times that LD Bell hasn't been a finalist in recent memory were the two years that they didn't advance to state at all. That is unlikely to happen again, so count them in. That leaves 4 spots for a huge number of great bands. Coppell, Round Rock, and Cedar Ridge have either been in finals or just missing out the past several times, and Waxahachie has made the jump to 6A smoothly. The bubble outside of this is big. Lots of great bands!

Agree here. Keller has one of the most challenging shows of the fall, and has a reputation for peaking at the very end of the season. Counting them out here or at San Antonio would be foolish I think. Regardless, this will be a great show! So many good bands here... finals will be worth the price of admission.

I would also expect Keller to be much improved over Waco. Their last production was really, really dirty. Given their history as a group that peaks late, I would expect that they will be MUCH cleaner this week.

I'd say this is very likely, and in both situations it may not be close. There are great groups at both contests, but BA is on another level this year, and Keller's show is the best one they have put on the field. Here's hoping they aren't performing in the same time slot in finals so I can see them!

It's worth noting that while it was close in finals, that Keller had a 1.5 point lead over Marcus in prelims. Contest dynamics had something to do with that for sure, but Keller had a pretty incomplete visual package that is expected to be filled in this week.