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2022-23 Area C Predictions?


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1 hour ago, snares said:

Just took a look at results (I need to go look at area H next, I didn't even check results because I assumed Vandy would win but holy cow Vista Ridge!), and man does my heart hurt for Prosper. The tough thing about UIL competitions is that (unless retreat procedure has changed in the last year) because they don't announce actual scores you never really know how close or far you were from qualifying. But then to have to go look at those scores right after results are announced must be so frustrating to see that you were right there and just barely missed it. 

I am also absolutely shocked at the gaps between Marcus, FloMo, and Hebron. Shocked not meaning I disagree (I wasn't there and am still yet to see Hebron), but shocked a just how far ahead the judges seemed to think Hebron was. I could literally never imagine having to judge 3 absolutely incredible bands like that, but those gaps in the numbers in the subcaptions is something that I just don't think I've seen in the last decade or so from this area. 

 

Hebron's performance was really good in both Prelims and Finals! They are going after the State Title again if they have the same performances as they did for Area. I can't wait to post the videos at the end of the season so people can get a chance to see their performances!

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Looking at the scores I noticed that in prelims one music judge awarded Hebron perfect scores in woodwinds, brass and percussion sub-captions. Then, in finals one visual judge gave them a perfect score in content, and one music judge gave them a perfect score in content. As if this group couldn’t get any more impressive 

Edited by Dallas Hobbs
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On 10/29/2022 at 7:27 PM, Dallas Hobbs said:

Alright here are my live predictions. This of course will be updated regularly. Then I’ll compare how accurate I was after the awards ceremony. Asterisks mean I’m not certain:

•Hebron

•Flower Mound

•Marcus

•Sachse

• Wylie

•Rock Hill

- - - - -State Qualifiers 

•Prosper

•Rockwall 

•Lewisville 

•Wylie East

•McKinney Boyd

•Braswell

 

  1. Hebron
  2. Flower Mound
  3. Marcus
  4. Sachse  (-5)
  5. Wylie  (+1)
  6. Rock Hill  (-2)
  7. Prosper 
  8. Rockwall  (-3)
  9. Lewisville  (-1)
  10. Wylie East (+5)
  11. McKinney Boyd (+5)
  12. Braswell

By the way, here are the results of my analyses. I was 5/12 in putting each finalist band in the right placement, and was 4/6 in picking the right state qualifiers. I included checks and x’s to indicate which ones I got right and which ones I got wrong, as well as how far off I was. 

Edited by Dallas Hobbs
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On 9/10/2022 at 1:40 PM, ClarinetKing said:

This area is a complete blood bath at this point and needs to be realigned. There are way too many state level bands in this area that aren’t getting well deserved state spots. Prosper, Sachse, Wylie, Wylie East, and Rockwall are all easily state competitors but they just aren’t all going to get a spot. Again with the bloodbath. I also hear that Prosper’s Rock hill is a very exciting up and coming program that could also be a potential state competitor after placing in finals in every competition they attended last season. McKinney also dove in head first at the WMI last year placing above many 5A state finalists and Area C state contenders but were robbed of even making finals last year at area. Prosper got moved down to 7th last year at area but let’s not forget that they were a BOA grand national finalist as recently as 2018. So honestly with how unpredictable the judging was last year there is really no way to tell.  

Yes please realign! 

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20 hours ago, BandMomTX2 said:

Yes please realign! 

I think realignment in the Dallas area (at least for 6A) won't create a big difference. The two most difficult and stacked areas in Texas are in DFW. There are 72 schools in 6A within the metroplex. If there was a third area added, we could maximize the number of schools going to state.

 

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5 minutes ago, peshbandkid said:

I think realignment in the Dallas area (at least for 6A) won't create a big difference. The two most difficult and stacked areas in Texas are in DFW. There are 72 schools in 6A within the metroplex. If there was a third area added, we could maximize the number of schools going to state.

Area D is every bit as stacked as either B or C.

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1 hour ago, Samuel Culper said:

Area D is every bit as stacked as either B or C.

If all the LISD 5A schools moved up to 6A, I’d agree. Maybe in regards to degree of difficulty with only 5 spots and a smaller pool of area entrants, but as of now, there’s a lot of depth to go around in both areas B and C, constantly growing year by year as well! Maybe some Frisco schools join the fray with some of their schools becoming a 6A in the near future, they’ll have to stop opening new schools at some point haha

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12 minutes ago, Vidal28 said:

If all the LISD 5A schools moved up to 6A, I’d agree. Maybe in regards to degree of difficulty with only 5 spots and a smaller pool of area entrants, but as of now, there’s a lot of depth to go around in both areas B and C, constantly growing year by year as well! Maybe some Frisco schools join the fray with some of their schools becoming a 6A in the near future, they’ll have to stop opening new schools at some point haha

LISD is Area H, not D.  Putting all of the Austin area into one Area would be brutal.

Looking at Area results (with HornRank rankings)....

Area B

18-Coppell

Next 10-Waxahachie

Next 10-Timber Creek

Next 10-Keller

LD Bell

Duncanville

--------------

SL Carroll

Lake Ridge

Keller Central

Lake HIghlands

Martin

Berkner

 

Area C

1-Hebron

6-Flower Mound

12-Marcus

Wylie

Wylie East

Boyd

--------------

Prosper

Rock Hill

Sachse

Lewisville

Rockwall

Braswell

 

Area D

9-Ronald Reagan

10-CTJ

7-Cedar Ridge

17-Round Rock

Dripping Springs

----------------

Westwood

James Bowie

Weiss

McNeil

Churchill

 

I stand by my assertion that D is just as deep as B and C. 

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1 minute ago, Samuel Culper said:

LISD is Area H, not D.  Putting all of the Austin area into one Area would be brutal.

Looking at Area results (with HornRank rankings)....

Area B

18-Coppell

Next 10-Waxahachie

Next 10-Timber Creek

Next 10-Keller

LD Bell

Duncanville

--------------

SL Carroll

Lake Ridge

Keller Central

Lake HIghlands

Martin

Berkner

 

Area C

1-Hebron

6-Flower Mound

12-Marcus

Wylie

Wylie East

Boyd

--------------

Prosper

Rock Hill

Sachse

Lewisville

Rockwall

Braswell

 

Area D

9-Ronald Reagan

10-CTJ

7-Cedar Ridge

17-Round Rock

Dripping Springs

----------------

Westwood

James Bowie

Weiss

McNeil

Churchill

 

I stand by my assertion that D is just as deep as B and C. 

I was seeing things, and I apologize there, having SA and Austin clumped together and then omitting LISD entirely with them being in a different area is so weird to me, but anyways!!! I definitely wouldn’t base the depth on the areas on hornrank’s rankings. Not enough of a scope based on the limited number of bands ranked to begin with and it’s a national thing, plus there is quite a bit of fluctuation to go where some bands in both Areas B and C get more love in the next week imo, especially with Prosper and Carroll going to Grand Nats. I don’t have all the data on Area D on my end because I haven’t gone to the area contest to see all these bands in action to be fair to you. I’m sure I’ll find my way down in the area at some point!

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  • 11 months later...

 

On 10/20/2022 at 7:01 PM, peshbandkid said:

Tier Predictions

Winning Medals and going to state: Flower Mound, Hebron, Marcus

State Bubble: Wylie, Wylie East, Prosper, Rock Hill

Since only 6 go onto state, 1 of these schools gets left out. Unsuprisingly, I can't tell you which school will be.

(Probably) Safe In FinalsSachse

They've been undeniably strong so far this year and will likely make it in. 

Finals Bubble: McKinney Boyd, Rockwall, Plano East, Lewisville, Rockwall Heath, ?Rowlett?

Here's where the competiton lies. We haven't seen Boyd since WMI where they got 7th, but I am sure they have cleaned up since. Rockwall and Plano East were neck-and-neck at McKinney, and both likely still had much to add. Rowlett beat Heath at Royse City, but I think they both are just a slight step behind the others.

Lewisville is the most volatile of the bunch. They beat Plano East and Rockwall by a significant margin at McKinney while trailing only the Wylie schools, which makes me think they are closer to Sachse than the bubble. As mentioned, those groups were incomplete at McKinney, so there is some debate.

 

All I know for certain is that at least 3 state level bands will be left out because of the difficulty of this Area. Same goes for Area B

Boyd made second at WMI, Mckinney high got seventh

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  • 2 weeks later...

I totally agree about the deck being stacked against some great bands to get a bid to go to state. Something has to be done. The same bands take the top 3 state spots EVERY year in nearly all classifications. Not fair. Realignment should be done somehow. I have heard band students say " why should we work our butts off every year when we have no chance at all to ever go to state"! Some really talented bands never get that state experience. Very unfair and sad! I was a drum major in the '60's when the highest level was district and all bands had the opportunity to go and get a 1 that was added to a 1 at concert and sightreading and that gave that band the highest honor of a Sweepstakes. Then UIL decided bands should have the ultimate award of a statewide championship. Turns out to not be a great idea. There has to be someway to allow most band to have the state experience. Im 76 years old and hoping to see my granddaughter ,who is head drum major of her high school band, make it to state. But if bands know,  even before they go, that they have no chance of a medal, what's the point. I think the band experience is one if the best programs any student can be a part of. I have been involved with band programs since my junior high days over 60 years ago. My sisters, daughters and now grandchildren have been and are in bands and musical programs including college. I have been involved in every aspect of band from participant, to volunteer to now supporter of grandchildren. I truly love music and band. But in this day and age of band programs, subjectivity instead of objectivity has taken precedence, as has politics. Something has to change. Rant over. 

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