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(Very Early) State Predictions


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So I know it's still way too soon to make more accurate predictions but just seeing what everyone's opinions are.

My prediction: Someone finally takes the crown from Marcus as a first time State Champion and it'll be someone who didn't participate in GN's.

No hate on Marcus, they're obviously a great band, but just a prediction.

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the top 3 at state will be Hebron, Marcus and The Woodlands, in some order.

 

I'll go ahead and call Hebron champions, but they won't beat The Woodlands at BOA.

 

I'm not quite sure if TW has.... ever... medaled at UIL, but if any year it should happen, I'd say it'd be this one. As Rubisco has commented, they are unbelievably visually strong for so early. Maybe that, combined with their signature, electrifying brass blend, will help them finally make that medal push.

 

I think Marcus will be back in their normal form. Last year was definitely an "off" year for them, but you can't just completely eliminate them from the running. They ARE the 4-time state champion, after all. And they won the individual performance captions at nationals, as many before have commented... Good design or not, they still rep that Marcus standard.

 

All that matters to me though is how insane the competition is now. Long gone are the days of LD Bell and Marcus just swapping places each year. This is a MUCH more exciting time for band in Texas, if you ask me. 

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I agree about Hebron. They are amazing. The Woodlands won GNs so it will be interesting to see their show. I'm sure a state title could be theirs for the taking. I have also heard Bowie is amazing this year. They have always been in the running and on a steady climb to the top. Last year they beat LD Bell and Marcus at BOA San Antonio. This might be their year. It's just fun that we have so many great programs in Texas!

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I'm always surprised at how The Woodlands places at UIL. At BOA SA in 2012 they were significantly ahead in the performance captions than every other band except Marcus, and they tied for visual. Yet when they got to state they came in 10th in preliminaries and 6th in finals. I understand it's a different style of judging, BUT I would figure the music ensemble performance and visual ensemble performance scores at BOA would have been reflective of UIL judging. Guess not.

 

With this being said I think they have a good chance at medaling, but if history is any indicator they may place unexpectedly low (meaning not medaling but still in finals). I think Hebron and Marcus will be top two but I think Coppell will be a super strong contender and could see them medaling. They won music performance in prelims in Denton and SA and I think they won the individual music caption in both rounds of both competitions. They tend to do super well in UIL in general.

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Austin just had their annual Band Jamboree last night where all of the Austin bands perform their shows. All I can say is that Bowie gave me chills. I was there to see Anderson's show but I'm glad we stayed to see Bowie. I had heard their show was IT. I felt like I was watching a DCI group, but with more finesse. Incredible. I am familiar with Bell, Marcus, and Hebron. This is a level beyond those great programs.

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I have seen a number of the early shows and I am sure that there will be many changes between now and the week of BOA SA/UIL in the dome. UIL 5A in 2012 was the final year for the UIL leadership and I have heard that based on what we say in the UIL 4A last year that the judging may have begun to tilt the UIL closer to a BOA/DCI type judging. with that said, we may see some similar placement with the SA BOA and UIL - 

all in all - too early to call but I think that you will see TW, Marcus, Bell, Hebron, CTJ and Bowie in a tight mix at the top (not in that order) - throw in Round Rock and maybe Reagan with a few surprises and you likely have your finalist for both BOA and UIL in the dome 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think the difference in placement for The Woodlands between UIL and BOA can almost entirely be explained by the fact that BOA judges typically have far more experience in DCI than UIL judges do. UIL judges tend to place more emphasis on sounding like a concert band than DCI judges ever have. This is why Marcus has dominated year after year. They're essentially a concert band on the field. This is excellent, though it often tranlates to general audiences finding them boring. TW certainly goes for more of the loud, in-your-face style DCI sound. The result of this is a sound that, while excellent in its own way, isn't quite as well-blended or balanced as a group like Marcus (or Hebron for that matter). The thing that baffles me the most about UIL judging is probably the visual judging, honestly. I think BOA gets it right far more often than UIL does. This may be because BOA's visual judges tend to be visual designers and whatnot, while UIL often recruits judges whose main emphasis is music pedagogy.

 

This year, I would expect Hebron and Marcus to be in the top 3 like they were last time. They approach music in a way that UIL really appreciates. Coppell, Bowie, and The Woodlands would be my next picks, though CTJ sounds better and better each year and could be a threat. After watching some videos, I feel like TW could break into the top 3. Right now, they're performing their show at a level that goes beyond any other group I've seen from Texas. In my assessment, it's really beat-you-over-the-head obvious. Now, whether it

remains this way as the season progresses is an entirely different story.

 

If I'm correct, the differences between UIL and BOA judging are quite extensive. I know UIL doesn't have any sort of GE, and I'm pretty sure they take difficulty less into account and it's more just straight up how well you do what you do. Also, the implication of the simple rankings system means we have no real way of knowing how the top bands from different areas will stack up at state until they actually get there. (Just look at the differences between BOA SA in 2012 and 5A finals just two days later in the same venue)

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If I'm correct, the differences between UIL and BOA judging in terms if what they are told to evaluate are quite extensive. I know UIL doesn't have any sort of GE, and I'm pretty sure they take difficulty less into account and it's more just straight up how well you do what you do. Just look at bands like CTJ, who always contends at BOA but just made state finals for the first time (and finished 10th) in 2012, and Coppell, who is a consistent state finalist but just made BOA SA finals for I believe the first time (and finished 12th) last year. On top of that, the fact that the UIL scoring system is simply rankings means we have no real way of knowing how the top bands from different areas will stack up at state until they actually get there.

 

No particular order.

Marcus

Hebron

The Woodlands

Bowie

LD Bell

Bowie

Coppell

CTJ

Reagan

Round Rock

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If I'm correct, the differences between UIL and BOA judging in terms if what they are told to evaluate are quite extensive. I know UIL doesn't have any sort of GE, and I'm pretty sure they take difficulty less into account and it's more just straight up how well you do what you do. Just look at bands like CTJ, who always contends at BOA but just made state finals for the first time (and finished 10th) in 2012, and Coppell, who is a consistent state finalist but just made BOA SA finals for I believe the first time (and finished 12th) last year. On top of that, the fact that the UIL scoring system is simply rankings means we have no real way of knowing how the top bands from different areas will stack up at state until they actually get there.

 

No particular order.

Marcus

Hebron

The Woodlands

Bowie

LD Bell

Bowie

Coppell

CTJ

Reagan

Round Rock

Man, Bowie is so good they make it into finals twice ;)

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I have to say based on what I have seen Hebron and Marcus are ahead of the other bands, with CTJ and Bowie right behind them. But I'm expecting marcus or Hebron to take state

you can never Count out Marcus - as stated earlier - they are a concert band on the field. I think Reagan has a show built for UIL and could certainly be a factor this year. Hebron will be in the mix. CTJ and Bowie as well. this year could be a very interesting state finals

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Totally agree about Marcus at UIL Region 24 last night.  Lewisville, Hebron, Marcus, and FloMo played back to back.  The Marcus show has gotten much tighter and their visual presentation has moved them to the top of the class.  Hebron is still playing a much more demanding musical show but they appear to have put everything on the field where Marcus is still adding. 

 

FloMo seemed to be a little off their game Saturday night but I still believe they have a good chance of advancing to state.  If nothing else, they should do well at BOASA.  Lewisville gets my vote for most improved band program.  Really nice colorguard and visual performance and they're steadily bringing their music and drill to a higher level.

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I don't think hebron has everything yet, when I saw their video from their summer band performance they had another minute of music that isn't in right now. They only had about ten seconds left on the clock after their region performance, so they may just be waiting to put it on the field when they know they won't be disqualified for timing.

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I was at Mesquite yesterday watching bands for Area C. And there were only two bands that really stuck out to me. One was Coppell, and the other...Duncanville. They tied for 1st place in Finals at yesterday's performance. I thought Duncanville's marching was far more difficult and clean. I also thought Duncanville's music was more difficult as well. I mean, I might not know what I'm talking about. But in my opinion, Duncanville is dangerous.

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You're roght it is extremely hard to tell which of the bubble bands will make finals. But I believe spring a friends wood have very good chances of making finals

 

I think Friendswood does have an outside chance of making finals. As a prediction, I am going to say that Friendswood won't make it this year, but the directors and students at Friendswood should be applauded for how they have handled the transition to 6A. After being a 4A school for many, many years, Friendswood not only advanced to state, but won Area F outright. That is a monumental accomplishment.

 

The last few finals spots (around 8th-10th) are going to be nearly impossible to predict. It's going to be a battle to get into finals. 

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