2026 UIL 5A State Marching Contest (Nov 2&3)

[M3llos 0n t0p]

Predictions with most of the heavy hitters moving up to 6a?

[glyde]

I see a Area B domination maybe. Wakeland or Argyle taking first

1 hour ago, M3llos 0n t0p said:

Predictions with most of the heavy hitters moving up to 6a?

 

[aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa]

1 - 5a band 1

2 - 5a band 2 

3 - 5a band 3

4 - 5a band 4 

5 - 5a band 5

6 - 5a band 6

7 - 5a band 7

8 - 5a band 8

9 - 5a band 9

10 - 5a band 10

11 - 5a band 11

12 - 5a band 12

[Anthony V]

Wakeland might move up to 6A, depending on where the cutoff is drawn. That will probably be a determining factor for the top 3. Lebanon Trail, Argyle, and Lone Star are obvious candidates for the podium. Other than that, once cutoffs are determined, then we'll have a better picture of what finals could look like.

I think the usual suspects who aren't moving up to 6A are, as best as anyone can tell, possible finalists. If I had to wildly guess at possible top-halfers next year, it would be something from the pool of Lebanon Trail, Lonestar, Argyle, Burleson Centennial, Richland, Friendswood, Poteet, Hendrickson, Roma. 

The other task that would remain to be done is to determine how/whether realignment changes the number of state advancers for each area, and then pull the projected state advancers from each area. Next year's list of prelims lineup could look quite different from this year's. For instance, we may see a lot of area B or area F bands who didn't make it to state. But then some of them could, simply in virtue of that, be poised to jump into state finals. (So if you see someone making a projection based on this year's prelims lineup, chances are it's pretty slapdash.)

As I'm thinking about possible lineups, I do have to say... although many of the bands moving up to 6A are powerhouses, the ceiling may or may not be as high, but that guarantees almost nothing to possible finalists. The only bands that get anything like a free pass are the ones that wouldn't otherwise be battling for a medal. In that sense, I do not think the 5A finals pool will be that much less crowded. For every 5A moving up, there's a whole lot of bands to take their place, some of them possibly coming from non-advancing area finalists...

[Tailgate88]

That’s a pretty good analysis I would say. We’ll know a lot more once realignments are officially announced. 

[SpudMuffin]

What about current 6A state marching participants moving down to 5A??  How will that play into the mix?

From Area G - Homer Hanna's enrollment is around 1890.  Edinburg also is below the current cutoff number.  How will bands that currently make the 6A contest stack up at the 5A level?  It could be interesting.

[GasBabyOfficial]

Aledo getting 1st in 6a

[jetliner]

Whole new landscape here. Some quick napkin placing of the new list based on 2025:

1. Lebanon Trail
2. Argyle
3. Lone Star
4. Burleson Centennial
5. Celina
6. Panther Creek
7. Richland
8. McCallum
9. Poteet
10. Friendswood
11. McKinney North
12. Harlingen South
13. A&M Consolidated
14. Hendrickson
15. Roma
16. Anderson
17. Glenn
18. Midlothian
19. Colleyville Heritage
20. Grapevine
21. College Station
22. Lakeview Centennial
23. Liberty Hill
24. Hanks

[Tubalord11]

1 hour ago, jetliner said:

Whole new landscape here. Some quick napkin placing of the new list based on 2025:

1. Lebanon Trail
2. Argyle
3. Lone Star
4. Burleson Centennial
5. Celina
6. Panther Creek
7. Richland
8. McCallum
9. Poteet
10. Friendswood
11. McKinney North
12. Harlingen South
13. A&M Consolidated
14. Hendrickson
15. Roma
16. Anderson
17. Glenn
18. Midlothian
19. Colleyville Heritage
20. Grapevine
21. College Station
22. Lakeview Centennial
23. Liberty Hill
24. Hanks

I do think Panther Creek will take a little bit of time before making state, especially finals, unless they grow a good amount and take on 5A “easily” it’s probably still gonna be 4 out of Area B and idk if I see them topping 4 bands in that area, much less 10 to make finals, Yet, though I’d love for them to make it

[jetliner]

Yeah, I think I'm way high on both of the 4A move-ups. I am least experienced with DFW out of the major metros by a long shot.

[Tubalord11]

2 hours ago, jetliner said:

Yeah, I think I'm way high on both of the 4A move-ups. I am least experienced with DFW out of the major metros by a long shot.

I could maybe see Celina doing it, they’ll probably make finals but not state for a couple years as well imo 

[Gpk1968]

I don’t think Celina will knock it out of the park first year, but I do think they are a solid contender for area finals and could potentially be a bubble band.  
 

I don’t think Panther will come out as strong. IMO - their shows have not been 5A shows. Who knows though?

[RoRogg]

7 hours ago, jetliner said:

Whole new landscape here. Some quick napkin placing of the new list based on 2025:

1. Lebanon Trail
2. Argyle
3. Lone Star
4. Burleson Centennial
5. Celina
6. Panther Creek
7. Richland
8. McCallum
9. Poteet
10. Friendswood
11. McKinney North
12. Harlingen South
13. A&M Consolidated
14. Hendrickson
15. Roma
16. Anderson
17. Glenn
18. Midlothian
19. Colleyville Heritage
20. Grapevine
21. College Station
22. Lakeview Centennial
23. Liberty Hill
24. Hanks

I'd personally put Argyle in 1st and McCallum in the top 6th, but everything else I pretty much agree with

[anotherbandmom]

I'll be cheering for Argyle! They really won me over this year. I didnt catch Burleson Centennial but those costumes were just wow! Making a mental note to see if I can find a recording. 

Edited December 17, 2025 by anotherbandmom
Typo

[caravansolo181]

I'm super, duper excited for this!! all top 5 from 2024 moved up to 6a, so i can't wait to see what awaits us next year. i will go out on a limb and say that top 1 is either lone star or lebanon trail. lone star's low placement at state this year will prolly have them coming back for revenge, so i'm excited to see their show reveal and their parent preview performance next year!! i'm wondering if lebanon trail will do a more calm, mellow show again like this year, and to be honest i wouldn't be suprised if they did. (because it sounded great!!) either way, i see top 3 being all from area b. go rangers!! 

 

(obviously, take all of this with a grain of salt)

[Tubalord11]

19 hours ago, caravansolo181 said:

I'm super, duper excited for this!! all top 5 from 2024 moved up to 6a, so i can't wait to see what awaits us next year. i will go out on a limb and say that top 1 is either lone star or lebanon trail. lone star's low placement at state this year will prolly have them coming back for revenge, so i'm excited to see their show reveal and their parent preview performance next year!! i'm wondering if lebanon trail will do a more calm, mellow show again like this year, and to be honest i wouldn't be suprised if they did. (because it sounded great!!) either way, i see top 3 being all from area b. go rangers!! 

 

(obviously, take all of this with a grain of salt)

Yeah I’m really excited for a pretty new era of 5A and 6A 

[bandisfun2000]

I really do hope Argyle wins the state marching contest this year (which I do have high hopes!) they’ll be tied once again with Cedar Park with the most wins at the SMBC!!

[LakeviewCentennialMello]

On 12/16/2025 at 10:16 PM, RoRogg said:

I'd personally put Argyle in 1st and McCallum in the top 6th, but everything else I pretty much agree with

not to be bias but I think Lakeview Centennial could go to state finals and Poteet top 5

[lambow93]

i'm going to go with

1. Lebanon Trail or Lone Star, LT peaked this year after missing state last year and they are definitely on the rise plus LS is probably going to want revenge after placing 8th in finals. If not a Frisco school, then Argyle

2. Argyle. The show design for this year was questionable but they have a chance for top 3 next year. If not Argyle then LS 2nd and Argyle for 3rd

3. Burleson Centennial: consistent finalist band for the past two years and since most of the finalist bands are moving to 6A they have a BIG chance of making top 5

4. Richland/McCallum: these two were 2 points away from each other in finals, I consider this a tossup

5. Poteet: tied with McCallum and unfortunately lost the tie but they are definitely finals material

i'm starting to run out of commentary lol so i'll just list the rest

6. Friendswood

7. Lake Belton/Barbers Hill

8. Hendrickson

9. A&M Consolidated

10. Harlingen South

11. Roma

12. Midlothian

i'm relatively new to the state marching contest so if these are inaccurate, i deeply apologize 😭