whitewing09

Don't Forget: #9 at SA was #5 at G'nat finals. With a non-zero probability, it can happen. Probably? nah.

I think I'll do this in Cohorts: 1st and 2nd: Flower Mound: They've mastered MP, VP, and MGE. I'm not quite willing to say they're to par with the Indy bands in visual GE. Though, unless VGE just hates the sh*t out of their visual package, I think it will be difficult for them to lose if they can replicate last year's quality. Avon: They will probably win all the visual judge. They're obviously a very good band in all regards. I'm not convinced they would have beat FloMo in Music last year and I'm not sure they will this year. 3rd - 6th: TWHS: They really bounced back last year from the previous two years. I think they've been experimenting on what exactly makes them tick and they're getting closer to finding it. With this year being a nats year I can't imagine them toning down. Reagan: They were amazing in 2015, but their show in 2016 seemed like a throw back to 2014. It ended up being a good show (did well at UIL), but too safe to make the splash they are capable of (as proved by 2015). Hopefully, they start taking bigger risks wrt to the capabilities of their players rather than the risk of having a singer dominating the show. CTJ: I see them being as high as three. I've been here for them since Bloom (Wow I'm old), so I may be biased. I think the issue last year was that their show was just too ambitious. I can't imagine any Texas group being able to clean it, given time constraints. I'm hoping this year they tone it down just a bit and produce the quality show that they put out in 2014. (If anything, Reagan and CTJ would be unstoppable if they met each other in the middle with respects to the cleanliness/difficulty trade off.) Leander: They're hot and getting hotter. Their shows are unique, well-performed, and well-designed. 7th-10th Hebron: Their show last year was a lot more UIL last year, but they've proven that they can be dangerous in the BOA scene. Cedar Park: It's weird to have them so low because they edged out Leander last year, but this is a very high quality cohort of bands. They'll be on their best for UIL the following week. Vandegrift: Like the other Austin-LISD this band is growing fast. Their music is there; they just need a better visual book. Last year was a good step forward. Marcus: They're a great band. Their shows may have gotten a little stale, so hopefully they start to mix it up. They play the long game, so I don't expect them to score as high here as at nationals. 11th -14th Round Rock: I have full confidence that they'll do better at Nationals than BOA SA. They're also a band that plays the long game. Their show was very UIL last year, but I'm expecting to see the same level of design and performance as 2015. Churchill: Last year seemed to be a revitalization for them. Their show design was great. They code work a little on execution, but I think they'll continue the impetus from last year. Hendrickson: They've really been growing. They had a fun show that was in SA finals last year (and deserved to be in UIL finals imo). I think they'll keep up the momentum. Keller: I absolutely loved their show last year and was surprised that they scored so low in performance metrics given their high UIL scores. I think they're a safe bet for finals. Yet another band that is growing. Bubble: Bowie: Last year, I think their main issue was show design. Their opener was great, but the show went flat as it went on.. I don't think they down and out for the count, but they have some mean competition. Bell: They're a good band, but they just don't have that same magic to their shows. They've seemed to stay consistent in execution, but there are just too many bands growing and surpassing them. Cedar Ridge: Unfortunately, they aren't what they used to be under Calima, but they'll stay in the bubble and have a chance to make finals if the stars align. Prosper: This band is really growing and it may be their year! A trip to nationals is great inspiration for stepping up one's game.

Not quite understanding how Bowie would be at the bottom of finals (unless they just really fall off the trail this year). Last year, they were neck-to-neck with Bell at DFW and edged out Cy-Fair at state, even with those awful music scores. I thought Bowie's show just fell flat with respect to design. The opener was awesome, the ballad was ok, and the closer was forgettable. Hopefully they figure something out this year. Overall, I think Bowie would flatly beat Cy-Fair in design, especially visually, and probably in execution. Churchill is probably better matched w.r.t design, but I think Bowie will beat them because of execution.

What's the point of it being a one-day super regional... if it's the same size or smaller at the same caliber or less than other regular regionals?

How will this venue be in terms of acoustics?

I think this will be interesting for Avon. If memory serves correctly, they general do A LOT of power cleaning between super regionals and g'nats. I'm also interested in seeing if FloMo steps it up to an even more insane show. They seemed so polished at Arlington last year that their books looked deceptively easy.

From my understanding he's referring to 2003 when Westfield's band withdrew from UIL specifically so they wouldn't have to follow the 8 hour rule, as opposed to CTJ just choosing not to attend UIL events, while still abiding by the UIL 8-hour rule.

Besides the inclusion of MPI in BOA, what are the major differences in how the two system evaluate music? One example that comes to mind is Keller. They did consistently well at UIL state, but in BOA they got destroyed in SA finals (although, they did do really well for prelims). Also, I'm actually very biased, but the quality difference in music performance between Hebron and the other top bands seemed greater than the razor thin they had. Am I missing something?

Currently obsessed with this. Off the top of my head, couple of bands who've done it are Cedar Park and Churchill in 2008 and Castle 2016. Who else has done it?

It's such a mixed bag. I see G'nats 2015 with Hebron going first and I'm all about top-half/bottom-half. Then I see G'nats 2016 with CTJ going first and decry the policy.

I think my two favorite shows live were Bell and TWHS 2006. I remember being floored by Hide and Seek's design. It was eclectic (for the time, I think?), but so fun to watch. They really played that show. Their ballad is probably one of my all time favorites and that closer.. As for Bell, watching the Remaining live... changed my life. This was back before you could easily find youtube videos or audio and way before the introduction of live streams of the regional contest, so Bell was hyped quite a bit, but their show was still a surprise. I remember the Alamodome being dead silent at the end of their show. It was a really surreal moment.

Does anyone have a high quality video of Keller 2016 or CTJ? Youtube just isn't doing it for me.

I was wondering if people feel that "the other Nats" prioritizes different factors from Nats. Specifically, on average, does SA weight difficulty more than cleanliness? Obviously both are very important, but either can bleed their way into GE, for example. It was really interesting to see CP destroy at Gnats. Their show was probably one of my top three favorite this year, but it was a completely surprise to see them in the top five. I'd attribute that to their flawless execution. I believe a lot of people thought their show design would hold them back, but it actually worked out really well for that. On the other hand, I'd argue that CTJ had one of the hardest books that scored relatively well at SA, but didn't really score well at Nats. For example, they almost got last in MPE and trailed Reagan in MGE by a full point.

Could you imagine a gnats with flower mound, Marcus, and Hebron? Highly unlikely event, but it's stuff that band nerd dreams are made of.

I totally agree. I went in person and got that "oh sh*t, they aren't playing around" all three times.

Know that the Texas pride is strong! Every Texan cheers for every Texas band with such enthusiasm! I sat in a block of CP/Leander/Bowie people and it was lit when the Texas bands came out. Some CP parents even brought Texas flags

It makes sense that they'd implement a policy where if the majority of judges in music (the emphasis of UIL) and one marching judge agree that a band is the best, the band should get first. It kind of makes sense mathematically. It is really hard to lose if you get three first places: for one band to get second with three judges giving them one's it would have to look like (pay mind that this is the worst has to be 4 or greater because judges preference would reward a tie if it were a 3) : 2 2 1 1 2 = 8 1 1 4 2 1 = 9 That four very much sticks out as an outlier, which is uniquely a big deal when the majority of judges gave one band the championship. In the case of N Lamar and Argyle that 7 sticks out like a sore thumb and doesn't agree with the other scores. 1 North Lamar H S, Paris 1 3 1 1 7 13 2 Argyle HS, Argyle 3 1 2 2 3 11 A more interest scenario would be if N Lamar would have gotten 1 7 1 1 7. Though I think UIL is banking on the assumption that if two musics and one marching judge agree on a champion, a fourth judge would rank them similarly and only the last judge would be an outlier.

Can't wait to see CTJ's final product live. Y'all got this!

do we need to submit predictions today or tomorrow for 6A?

Is this Canton's first time missing from finals in the past.. 15 years?

Did you watch any of the livecasts of BOA SA in previous years? Excellent sound quality the past...seven years? I can't example remember when the first BOA SA livecast happened. I'm wondering if Mr. Video used to do it before and if they just lost a contract with Music For All this year. So would you say you highly recommend the livecast for the SMBCs?

It's amazing how Reagan and CP are likely to place the same ordinals at Nats as they did this weekend.

How much practice will our bands be able squeeze into the next <week given all the travel, etc?

I think another interesting aspect is the ensemble/individual splits they had: MPI:18.20 MPE:16.20 VPI: 18.90 VPE:16.50