UIL 5A State Marching Contest 2023

[clarinetistkai05]

Just now, tennertrumbow said:

lone star added a ton of new stuff to the show and is a different band since missing finals at Bedford. will be interesting to see how they fall in the mix of aledo, forney, and BC

all I can say for Forney is that we took not making finals and the show is a lot harder in a way (I got a free leg day and my skin broke out on design day)

[Coolhornplayer]

Some spicy stuff about to happen here in a week

[clarinetistkai05]

so we have Colleyville Heritage and McCallum not returning to State, which leaves some room for some schools to wiggle in. What are y’all’s predictions now? 

[Tubalord11]

Okay everyone, after a crazy night of Area, I'm going to make my Finals predictions for this comp! These are based off one, area results/rankings; 2, how bands have done all season long at their respective comps and; 3, how bands tend to do/peak or not peak at state. Obviously, this comp is almost impossible to predict, but here's my best shot, gonna do placements and also a tier list below. We also have a LOT of first timers/been a minute since they've been at state, so that also makes things even harder. I'm assuming its's 12 to finals, but if it's more or less, please lmk so I can edit my predictions, forgot how they determine how many state finalist there are. Here we go: 

 

1st. Rouse HS 

2nd. Cedar Park HS

3rd. Wakeland HS

4th. Leander HS 

5th. Aledo HS

6th. Hendrickson HS

7th. Friendswood HS

8th. Burleson Centennial HS

9th. Lonestar HS

10th. Forney HS

11th. Mckinney North HS

12th. Roma HS 

---

First out: 

Richland HS 

 

So, IMO, the top 4 is going to be that, could be in any order. I feel like Aledo, Henny, F-wood are pretty much locks for finals, assuming they have really good performances, though placements could vary. 8th-12th is more of my personal opinion of how things will fold out, I'd be very surprised if BC, LS, and Forney didn't make finals, and the last two are more based on how successful their seasons have been. Roma for some reason always seems to get the short end of the stick at State, but hoping they get into finals this year, but nothings guaranteed. Would also be pretty surprised if MN didn't make finals. Here's my tier list: 

 

Top 4: Cedar Park, Leander, Rouse Wakeland 

Lock for finals: Aledo, Henny, Friendswood 

Very high chance of finals: Lonestar, Burleson Centennial, Forney

Fighting for last 2 spots: Mckinney North, Roma, Richland, Lebanon Trial, Foster

Could MAYBE slip into finals: Birdville, Lake Belton, Pieper 

 

 

 

I'm hoping for some surprises and some new finalist, best of luck to everyone competing, can't wait to see how things shake out! 

[some guy]

does anyone know when the schedule comes out?

[DeadMascot]

50 minutes ago, Tubalord11 said:

Okay everyone, after a crazy night of Area, I'm going to make my Finals predictions for this comp! These are based off one, area results/rankings; 2, how bands have done all season long at their respective comps and; 3, how bands tend to do/peak or not peak at state. Obviously, this comp is almost impossible to predict, but here's my best shot, gonna do placements and also a tier list below. We also have a LOT of first timers/been a minute since they've been at state, so that also makes things even harder. I'm assuming its's 12 to finals, but if it's more or less, please lmk so I can edit my predictions, forgot how they determine how many state finalist there are. Here we go: 

 

1st. Rouse HS 

2nd. Cedar Park HS

3rd. Wakeland HS

4th. Leander HS 

5th. Aledo HS

6th. Hendrickson HS

7th. Friendswood HS

8th. Burleson Centennial HS

9th. Lonestar HS

10th. Forney HS

11th. Mckinney North HS

12th. Roma HS 

---

First out: 

Richland HS 

 

So, IMO, the top 4 is going to be that, could be in any order. I feel like Aledo, Henny, F-wood are pretty much locks for finals, assuming they have really good performances, though placements could vary. 8th-12th is more of my personal opinion of how things will fold out, I'd be very surprised if BC, LS, and Forney didn't make finals, and the last two are more based on how successful their seasons have been. Roma for some reason always seems to get the short end of the stick at State, but hoping they get into finals this year, but nothings guaranteed. Would also be pretty surprised if MN didn't make finals. Here's my tier list: 

 

Top 4: Cedar Park, Leander, Rouse Wakeland 

Lock for finals: Aledo, Henny, Friendswood 

Very high chance of finals: Lonestar, Burleson Centennial, Forney

Fighting for last 2 spots: Mckinney North, Roma, Richland, Lebanon Trial, Foster

Could MAYBE slip into finals: Birdville, Lake Belton, Pieper 

 

 

 

I'm hoping for some surprises and some new finalist, best of luck to everyone competing, can't wait to see how things shake out! 

I could definitely see Sharyland or Pioneer from Area G in this conversation, they did exceptionally well at this week’s competition

[Tubalord11]

17 minutes ago, DeadMascot said:

I could definitely see Sharyland or Pioneer from Area G in this conversation, they did exceptionally well at this week’s competition

Yeah, I'd say they are more in the possible finalist, but just looking at how they have done in the past, I don't seem them making finals here. I'd say more in the top of the bottom half, because while they have improved a lot, so have the bands that are consistent state finalist. 

[Tubalord11]

14 minutes ago, tennertrumbow said:

 

5A State Prelims Schedule

https://www.uiltexas.org/files/music/5A_Prelims.pdf

How in the world did all of Area H end up in the same block with 3 of them going back-to-back-to-back??? Wakeland is in a really great spot do place high at in Prelims, If Mckinney North has a really strong performance that will be really good for them seeing they are in the same block as our current 5A medalist 

[geievekeekd]

Where do you think north mesquite will place?

[clarinetistkai05]

1 hour ago, Tubalord11 said:

Okay everyone, after a crazy night of Area, I'm going to make my Finals predictions for this comp! These are based off one, area results/rankings; 2, how bands have done all season long at their respective comps and; 3, how bands tend to do/peak or not peak at state. Obviously, this comp is almost impossible to predict, but here's my best shot, gonna do placements and also a tier list below. We also have a LOT of first timers/been a minute since they've been at state, so that also makes things even harder. I'm assuming its's 12 to finals, but if it's more or less, please lmk so I can edit my predictions, forgot how they determine how many state finalist there are. Here we go: 

 

1st. Rouse HS 

2nd. Cedar Park HS

3rd. Wakeland HS

4th. Leander HS 

5th. Aledo HS

6th. Hendrickson HS

7th. Friendswood HS

8th. Burleson Centennial HS

9th. Lonestar HS

10th. Forney HS

11th. Mckinney North HS

12th. Roma HS 

---

First out: 

Richland HS 

 

So, IMO, the top 4 is going to be that, could be in any order. I feel like Aledo, Henny, F-wood are pretty much locks for finals, assuming they have really good performances, though placements could vary. 8th-12th is more of my personal opinion of how things will fold out, I'd be very surprised if BC, LS, and Forney didn't make finals, and the last two are more based on how successful their seasons have been. Roma for some reason always seems to get the short end of the stick at State, but hoping they get into finals this year, but nothings guaranteed. Would also be pretty surprised if MN didn't make finals. Here's my tier list: 

 

Top 4: Cedar Park, Leander, Rouse Wakeland 

Lock for finals: Aledo, Henny, Friendswood 

Very high chance of finals: Lonestar, Burleson Centennial, Forney

Fighting for last 2 spots: Mckinney North, Roma, Richland, Lebanon Trial, Foster

Could MAYBE slip into finals: Birdville, Lake Belton, Pieper 

 

 

 

I'm hoping for some surprises and some new finalist, best of luck to everyone competing, can't wait to see how things shake out! 

I actually do see this (ouch for Forney), but I can see this happening.

[Tubalord11]

12 minutes ago, clarinetistkai05 said:

I actually do see this (ouch for Forney), but I can see this happening.

I could definitely see y’all placing higher! It’s just super competitive this year, and a lot of bands are having incredible season, but ultimately it will come down to the judges 

[Tubalord11]

4 minutes ago, saxbark said:

You have Richland at first out but they beat Burleson Centennial and only lost to Aledo by .3 points in their Area F comp?

I don't like to use Area as much as other things for predicting comps. The number of times I've seen a band have massive success at other comps but then do terrible at area or vice versa makes me hesitant to use Area as a good predictor for state. I mean take Centennial for example. I don't think anyone was expecting them to place 3rd and have that bad of visual scores after getting 2nd at a US bands comp, tying with Southlake Carroll in prelims, and winning the BISD comp. I think Richland has a great shot at making state finals, but I don't think Area is the best representation of bands it terms of well they will do at other comps. Just more of a gut feeling if you will 

[Dave609]

1 minute ago, Tubalord11 said:

I don't like to use Area as much as other things for predicting comps. The number of times I've seen a band have massive success at other comps but then do terrible at area or vice versa makes me hesitant to use Area as a good predictor for state. I mean take Centennial for example. I don't think anyone was expecting them to place 3rd and have that bad of visual scores after getting 2nd at a US bands comp, tying with Southlake Carroll in prelims, and winning the BISD comp. I think Richland has a great shot at making state finals, but I don't think Area is the best representation of bands it terms of well they will do at other comps. Just more of a gut feeling if you will 

We will have to wait and see! Richland has had one season to remember for sure! I personally would like to see them in Finals, but who knows what the outcome will be.

[clarinetistkai05]

37 minutes ago, Tubalord11 said:

I could definitely see y’all placing higher! It’s just super competitive this year, and a lot of bands are having incredible season, but ultimately it will come down to the judges 

I can see Forney swapping with Hendrickson, especially considering their luck at BOAs (I feel horrible for them), but I can see any of the other bands swapping too (besides Rouse, Rouse is my prediction to win).

[Tubalord11]

1 minute ago, saxbark said:

i see what your saying, but Richland got 1st at a us bands comp and 1st at a boa regional. it will be exciting to see how it all plays out. 

Yeah again in all honestly I do think they have a great shot at making finals, I just don't think people should underestimate certain bands because they didn't do well at area, but it will be exciting to see for sure how the cards fold, would love to see Richland in finals! 

[Tubalord11]

1 minute ago, clarinetistkai05 said:

I can see Forney swapping with Hendrickson, especially considering their luck at BOAs (I feel horrible for them), but I can see any of the other bands swapping too (besides Rouse, Rouse is my prediction to win).

for sure! It's hard to predict Henny with them going to all BOA comps this year minus area, which they won so that's something. I think Austin was just they weren't at finalist level, Prosper they 100% should have made finals IMO, some wonky judging for them there, but I think they will do just fine here, but I'm really excited to see how things shake out, lots of bands here have had very successful seasons, will probably the most competitive state for both 5A and 6A we have ever had! 

[Karma_Savior]

1. Rouse*
2. Cedar Park*
3. Wakeland*
4. Leander*
5. Forney*
6. Lone Star*
7. Burleson Centennial*
8. Hendrickson*
9. Aledo*
10. Friendswood*
11. Foster
12. Lake Belton

On the Bubble: Lebanon Trail, Richland, McKinney North 

*=State Finalist Locks 

[clarinetistkai05]

3 hours ago, Tubalord11 said:

for sure! It's hard to predict Henny with them going to all BOA comps this year minus area, which they won so that's something. I think Austin was just they weren't at finalist level, Prosper they 100% should have made finals IMO, some wonky judging for them there, but I think they will do just fine here, but I'm really excited to see how things shake out, lots of bands here have had very successful seasons, will probably the most competitive state for both 5A and 6A we have ever had! 

Hendrickson at Prosper sounded very harsh imo. I watched it on Box5, so maybe the audio was different live, but then again state is very very hard to predict. (also rip Jack C. Hays, I know some of y’all were predicting them to be finalists).

[JWork]

I would love McKinney North to make finals. I absolutely love their show and think they play it phenomenally.

[clarinetistkai05]

In honor of state being almost an entire week away! I’d figure it’s time for my last ever band predictions (maybe I’ll watch comps in between my college life, but who knows). this is considering:

a) results from every competition that I can find: no matter the judging format (good shows tend to do very well at both boa and UIL, example: Rouse, Wakeland, etc).

b) past attendance in state and how they’ve improved or fallen.

c) personal opinions, but I do genuinely love these bands!

without further ado, here are my finals predictions! any of these can be swapped, but here is what I believe will happen! I will also be indicating a key below this list as well as a finals bubble!

1. Rouse *

2. Cedar Park *

3. Wakeland *

4. Leander *

5. Forney *

6. Aledo *

7. Hendrickson *

8. Lone Star ~

9. Friendswood *

10. Burleson Centennial ~

11. Roma #

12. McKinney North #
 

Finals Bubble:

Lebanon Trail

Richland

Foster 

Lake Benton

 

Key:

* = State Finalist Lock

~ = On the fence, will elaborate on if asked

# = Can be swapped with any of the finalist bubble bands

 

 

 

[Tubalord11]

5 minutes ago, clarinetistkai05 said:

In honor of state being almost an entire week away! I’d figure it’s time for my last ever band predictions (maybe I’ll watch comps in between my college life, but who knows). this is considering:

a) results from every competition that I can find: no matter the judging format (good shows tend to do very well at both boa and UIL, example: Rouse, Wakeland, etc).

b) past attendance in state and how they’ve improved or fallen.

c) personal opinions, but I do genuinely love these bands!

without further ado, here are my finals predictions! any of these can be swapped, but here is what I believe will happen! I will also be indicating a key below this list as well as a finals bubble!

1. Rouse *

2. Cedar Park *

3. Wakeland *

4. Leander *

5. Forney *

6. Hendrickson *

7. Lone Star ~

8. Friendswood *

9. Hendrickson *

10. Burleson Centennial ~

11. Roma #

12. Richland #
 

Finals Bubble:

Lebanon Trail

Mckinney North

Foster 

Lake Benton

 

Key:

* = State Finalist Lock

~ = On the fence, will elaborate on if asked

# = Can be swapped with any of the finalist bubble bands

 

 

 

No Aledo? Would be super shocked if they weren't in, but anything can happen, and they do go on pretty early so that could hurt them, but should be in finals relatively comfortably, otherwise a super great list! Would love Forney top 5! 

[Tubalord11]

7 minutes ago, JWork said:

I would love McKinney North to make finals. I absolutely love their show and think they play it phenomenally.

I'd personally be very shocked if they aren't in finals 

[clarinetistkai05]

1 minute ago, Tubalord11 said:

No Aledo? Would be super shocked if they weren't in, but anything can happen, and they do go on pretty early so that could hurt them, but should be in finals relatively comfortably, otherwise a super great list! Would love Forney top 5! 

I FORGOT ALEDO 😭😭😭😭 I’D PUT THEM IN 6TH AND MOVE EVRRYONE DOWN

[Tubalord11]

29 minutes ago, clarinetistkai05 said:

I FORGOT ALEDO 😭😭😭😭 I’D PUT THEM IN 6TH AND MOVE EVRRYONE DOWN

Okay that's what I though lol, I've done that SO many times when predicting comps before!! 

[PenguinGuy]

Seeing how McKinney North did at BOA and Area this and last season, is it possible to see them higher on the list? Mainly comparing to Hendrickson from this year, and Aledo from last year at BOA Waco. They were within .3 points of aledo last year and beat Hendrickson by 2.5 point this year. With both seasons doing equally well at area.