2012 BOA San Antonio Predictions

[TXMarchingMadness87654]

Indeed, this is going to be an interesting year. I too believe that we are seeing the rise and fall of dynasties. Even then, though, this is the hardest time I've ever had trying to pick a winner for SA. And quite frankly, it's because there is none. Under certain circumstances, there are a lot of bands that could win SA, or at the very least rewrite some long held beliefs. Marcus and Bell have been in power for too long, but I don't know if we will see someone new decisively grab power this year or see a couple years of, well, anarchy. Results for the next couple of years could be all over the place until a new power takes control for good. I would expect anything to happen next Saturday.

 

"Results for the next couple of years could be all over the place until a new power takes control for good."

 

That sums it up nicely. Well put. The next few years could definitely be interesting. It's just near impossible to call, and, well, I kinda like that! It makes it exciting when it could be a newbie to the #1 spot.(or an oldie revived! ha) Really makes the upcoming contests nailbiters, doesn't it? Love it!

[sh32735]

The Round Rock video is really poor quality unfortunetly. The best videos I've seen of RR are all private.

 

[Drum major]

Indeed, this is going to be an interesting year. I too believe that we are seeing the rise and fall of dynasties. Even then, though, this is the hardest time I've ever had trying to pick a winner for SA. And quite frankly, it's because there is none. Under certain circumstances, there are a lot of bands that could win SA, or at the very least rewrite some long held beliefs. Marcus and Bell have been in power for too long, but I don't know if we will see someone new decisively grab power this year or see a couple years of, well, anarchy. Results for the next couple of years could be all over the place until a new power takes control for good. I would expect anything to happen next Saturday.

 

I agree, it seems that nothing is a lock anymore... The loudest screams of joy come from the kids of the underdog, the unexpected, the "where did they come from" scenerio. The anticipation and excitment of a chance to advance over a "band with the history of winning" is the undescrible. When your the underdog, there is no where to go but up and the climb is memoriable. Once you get there, it almost becomes the normal and the expectation, ... I'd rather make memories and climb......

[erasure101]

Just my thoughts/analysis on some bands we can expect to see in finals as well as the large bubble of great programs that will be in my opinion fighting for spots in finals. Firstly, my own personal picks for finals (NOT in any particular order, I won't guess on placements yet):

 

 

 

LD Bell- Shoot. LD Bell, the band that has reigned supreme in Texas and the nation in its decades long dynasty. Considering their massive success last year, I had these guys as my favorite to win this contest. However, I just don't know anymore. First off, I'm not so sure it was a good idea on their part to not go to any regionals, and then just go to St. Louis and San Antonio. I mean, do you really want your first contest of the year to be one of the most important? And then, the results of St. Louis. Second in class to Owasso? I know, Owasso is a quality program, but this is LD Bell we're talking about, former Grand National champions. This was an upset in every way. This band in many ways including guard, brass sound, design, and endurance does not seem to be doing as well as they were last year. Alot can happen between now and San Antonio, but I would not be surprised at all to see another program take this band's spot in the top 3.

LD Bell is many things, chief among them is consistent. Since when is placing second at a competition cause for impending doom? By your estimation, they should pack it up and call it quits.

 

Admittedly, their level of execution has not reached their level of difficulty. Rest assured that they will peak at the right times. In all actuality, finishing 2nd at the St. Louis Super Regional may be the best thing to happen to LD Bell. The journey is the destination.

[BOAfanatic]

 

 

Oh...my...God...dat face melting brass!

[ch1k3n123]

Oh...my...God...dat face melting brass!

 

the brass feature IS quite an effective moment

[Drummantx]

I could see Round Rock pretty far up there...

[DatQuadPlayer]

I see no one has mentioned the possibility of Legacy making it to Finals after a 16th place finish last year at their first Super Regional.. Is it because no one has seen their show?

[Anthony V]

I see no one has mentioned the possibility of Legacy making it to Finals after a 16th place finish last year at their first Super Regional.. Is it because no one has seen their show?

 

Legacy is a great band-- a REALLY great band--but San Antonio is just extremely stacked. Most people are just having problems rationalizing which "usuals" will make it into finals. If this were another competition I don't think anyone would hesitate, but it will be a bloodbath at BOA SA. There have been a lot of upsets this year, but you can't really predict a dark horse (otherwise they wouldn't be one) .

 

I a side note, I should try and reiterate also that it's always about the kids. Sure predictions are fun, but we can't go so far into it that we forget we're playing with and talking about the hard work of young individuals. $0.02. Awards should be rewards. Not relief. I don't think BOA ever intends or intended for their circuit to be an 'eat-or-be-eaten" environment.

[wikimancz]

Who has the best drumline out of the top 10? That's all I'm really interested in at the moment.

[OCPantherSnare]

Who has the best drumline out of the top 10? That's all I'm really interested in at the moment.

 

Judging off of the results of drumline contests so far this year (Dripping Springs, Plano East), who's won percussion caption awards at competitions this year, as well as past results, I'd say that Cedar Park, Johnson, Marcus, Flower Mound, Round Rock, and Richland have the top drumlines/front ensembles. Not to say that there are no other bands that have a strong percussion section, but these are just the ones I'm familiar with.

Edited October 29, 2012 by OCPantherSnare

[Joel Wright]

Judging off of the results of drumline contests so far this year (Dripping Springs, Plano East), who's won percussion caption awards at competitions this year, as well as past results, I'd say that Cedar Park, Johnson, Marcus, Flower Mound, Round Rock, and Richland have the top drumlines/front ensembles. Not to say that there are no other bands that have a strong percussion section, but these are just the ones I'm familiar with.

 

 

Vandegrift and Cedar Ridge both have very strong percussion sections, as well as Lake Travis, although they aren't going to BOA SA.

[drummerjoe]

Vandegrift and Cedar Ridge both have very strong percussion sections, as well as Lake Travis, although they aren't going to BOA SA.

 

My roommate is the pit tech over at Vandegrift, and I'm only hearing good things about them. We'll see at BOA, though. Early performance time, let's hope it doesn't affect them as much as it did RR

[drummerjoe]

Judging off of the results of drumline contests so far this year (Dripping Springs, Plano East), who's won percussion caption awards at competitions this year, as well as past results, I'd say that Cedar Park, Johnson, Marcus, Flower Mound, Round Rock, and Richland have the top drumlines/front ensembles. Not to say that there are no other bands that have a strong percussion section, but these are just the ones I'm familiar with.

 

I had the pleasure of running the pit warm-up area at the 5A Area D contest, so I can give you a bit of input on 5A pits in Area D.

 

CT Johnson's pit is playing some of the most complex music I have ever seen a high school pit play, and they are doing it VERY well. Keep an eye on their rock solid drumline, but don't forget to take a nice look at the work their pit is doing.

 

Round Rock is, as always, doing great. I hesitate to comment about them though, my comments may be a bit biased. Round Rock is my alma mater.

 

CTJ was undoubtedly a step above the other pits, but also keep an eye out for some of the work done by Pflugerville, Reagan, Anderson, and Bowie's pits. They were playing some complex music and playing it well.

 

Pflugerville's pit had a very nice auxiliary section which was entertaining to watch, because they always perform more than just the music on the page. They are one of the most in-sync pits I've seen, and are really aware of everyone in their group. It's pretty cool to watch, I don't see anyone perform the music as much as I saw Pflugerville perform it on Saturday.

[medina5012]

Granted I've already put my predictions I honestly don't know who all will will be in finals. There are so many good groups that so many scenarios could happen. However, I think this is probably how it will end up going:

 

Locks (out of order):

 

Marcus, Hebron ,Flower Mound, L.D. Bell,Cedar Park,Round Rock,The Woodlands, CTJ, Vandergrift, Reagan

 

Next four (randomly):

 

Plano East, Spring, Westlake, Cedar Ridge

 

Dark horses:

 

Churchill

SFA, Keller, Haltom, Berkner, College Park,Friendswood,Hendrickson

 

I think the top 3 will be CTJ, The Woodlands, and Marcus. However, I wouldn't be surprised if a school came up and knocked Marcus down a spot or two, which could be Round Rock, L.D. Bell, Flower Mound, Hebron, or Cedar Park. The last 7 is completely up for grabs though I would not be surprised at all if Vandergrift or Reagan placed top 8, they're definitely locks for finals, the rest is too ambiguous to tell. PESH had a great show last week at Area B as well as Westlake. However, schools like Spring, Cedar Ridge, and College Park have made finals trips before in recent history. So in all this contest may show some very interesting bands in finals this year.

[T.Stechnij]

Finally I think I can make a fair assertion in general of what could happen this weekend.

 

I think that first will go to The Woodlands, they are so good this year.

 

Naturally, second should be Marcus- stronger than last year, could surge for first.

 

Area D kind of showed me that Claudia Taylor Johnson might not be as strong as we think. I think that Hebron could come out for third if they cleaned the music well enough. CTJ just hasn't grown at the level I anticipated earlier this season. Next year though- I bet they will win it.

 

Berkner- woah. Wow. Amazing. I think they can beat Bell this weekend and I think that them and Reagan have the best chances for the next spots. Berkner just has a great sound and the show has so much built in GE. It is very clean too. I bet they will be the biggest schoolers of the year. Reagan also will be a bit shocking- they almost beat CTJ at Area D! Cool stuff and they sound really good.

 

7th goes to LD Bell? Then again- they may just completely blow my mind- I wouldn't be surprised. Not a fan of the design effectwise and visualwise.

 

I am going to call 8-11 the block of schools from Region 26. Cedar Park and Vandegrift have been quiet lately, eh? I think that Round Rock is going to push and probably end up eight or nine. Cedar Park will likely top Vandegrift and hopefully Cedar Ridge will fit in here too. High GE will hopefully go to Cedar Ridge out of this pack but music could go to either Cedar Park or Vandegrift. I think a couple of these school could pull themselves up into the top 7-- pushing Bell down?

 

Flower Mound- fricking adorable. C-U-T-E. 12th seems low, but it is a hard year. Could end up beating a lot of the Region 26 if it gets cleaned.

 

These 13th and 14th spots are CRAZY tough to get into. I say the strongest contenders are Richland, Anderson, Westlake and Spring.

• Westlake sounds great and their show has some MAJOR GE moments. That piccolo trumpet. Wooooowie. Scored a 20 at Area D to CTJs 19. The only reason they didn't beat CTJ was one music judge scored them low low low, like 8th place low.
  
• Anderson is fun and I would almost be shocked if they aren't in there. Some great guard stuff and GE. Simple drill... But is dirty though? They destroyed Richland at St. Louis but I still view them as almost equal after their Area results. I bet they will both push this week and fight for it.
  
• I don't even know about Spring... I hadn't heard much good but they were so close to The Woodlands, ummm what? I bet they will shock some people.
  

I also wouldn't be surprised to see either Hendrickson, Legacy,Friendswood, Keller, Plano East or College Park in finals.

Hey, Leander, Haltom, Churhill and Pflugerville are all strong too-- weirder things have happened. Ha, weirder things have happened this year!

So, alas, my predictions!

1. The Woodlands
   
2. Marcus
   
3. Hebron
   
4. Claudia Taylor Johnson
   
5. L.V. Berkner
   
6. Ronald Reagan
   
7. LD Bell
   
8. Cedar Ridge
   
9. Round Rock
   
10. Cedar Park
    
11. Vandegrift
    
12. Flower Mound
    
13. Westlake
    
14. Anderson
    
15. Spring
    
16. Richland
    
17. Friendswood
    
18. Plano East
    
19. Hendrickson
    
20. Legacy
    

Those last two spots. Wow... I think there is honestly 20 bands fighting for those 14 spots. 11 fighting for top 5 even? This may go down in the books as the hardest San Antonio ever.

Edited October 31, 2012 by T.Stechnij

[Anteok]

Finally I think I can make a fair assertion in general of what could happen this weekend.

 

I think that first will go to The Woodlands, they are so good this year.

 

Naturally, second should be Marcus- stronger than last year, could surge for first.

 

Area D kind of showed me that Claudia Taylor Johnson might not be as strong as we think. I think that Hebron could come out for third if they cleaned the music well enough. CTJ just hasn't grown at the level I anticipated earlier this season. Next year though- I bet they will win it.

 

Berkner- woah. Wow. Amazing. I think they can beat Bell this weekend and I think that them and Reagan have the best chances for the next spots. Berkner just has a great sound and the show has so much built in GE. It is very clean too. I bet they will be the biggest schoolers of the year. Reagan also will be a bit shocking- they almost beat CTJ at Area D! Cool stuff and they sound really good.

 

7th goes to LD Bell? Then again- they may just completely blow my mind- I wouldn't be surprised. Not a fan of the design effectwise and visualwise.

 

I am going to call 8-11 the block of schools from Region 26. Cedar Park and Vandegrift have been quiet lately, eh? I think that Round Rock is going to push and probably end up eight or nine. Cedar Park will likely top Vandegrift and hopefully Cedar Ridge will fit in here too. High GE will hopefully go to Cedar Ridge out of this pack but music could go to either Cedar Park or Vandegrift. I think a couple of these school could pull themselves up into the top 7-- pushing Bell down?

 

Flower Mound- fricking adorable. C-U-T-E. 12th seems low, but it is a hard year. Could end up beating a lot of the Region 26 if it gets cleaned.

 

These 13th and 14th spots are CRAZY tough to get into. I say the strongest contenders are Richland, Anderson, Westlake and Spring.

• Westlake sounds great and their show has some MAJOR GE moments. That piccolo trumpet. Wooooowie. Scored a 20 at Area D to CTJs 19. The only reason they didn't beat CTJ was one music judge scored them low low low, like 8th place low.
  
• Anderson is fun and I would almost be shocked if they aren't in there. Some great guard stuff and GE. Simple drill... But is dirty though? They destroyed Richland at St. Louis but I still view them as almost equal after their Area results. I bet they will both push this week and fight for it.
  
• I don't even know about Spring... I hadn't heard much good but they were so close to The Woodlands, ummm what? I bet they will shock some people.
  

I also wouldn't be surprised to see either Hendrickson, Legacy,Friendswood, Keller, Plano East or College Park in finals.

Hey, Leander, Haltom, Churhill and Pflugerville are all strong too-- weirder things have happened. Ha, weirder things have happened this year!

So, alas, my predictions!

1. The Woodlands
   
2. Marcus
   
3. Hebron
   
4. Claudia Taylor Johnson
   
5. L.V. Berkner
   
6. Ronald Reagan
   
7. LD Bell
   
8. Cedar Ridge
   
9. Round Rock
   
10. Cedar Park
    
11. Vandegrift
    
12. Flower Mound
    
13. Westlake
    
14. Anderson
    
15. Spring
    
16. Richland
    
17. Friendswood
    
18. Plano East
    
19. Hendrickson
    
20. Legacy
    

Those last two spots. Wow... I think there is honestly 20 bands fighting for those 14 spots. 11 fighting for top 5 even? This may go down in the books as the hardest San Antonio ever.

 

I would place Spring, Flower Mound, Plano East, and Cedar Park all higher than you have them listed. Spring came within a couple of points of taking the Woodlands at area F prelims, and is a pretty consistent finalist at SA. I can imagine them missing finals, but not easily. I'd bet on them in front of Vandegrift. Plano East had a phenomenal showing in Area B, taking 3rd ahead of Bell, (though the "ahead of Bell" part probably won't translate to BOA.) and Flower Mound has one of the most BOA-friendly shows I've ever seen. I don't know if I'd bet quite so highly on Cedar Ridge, though they're very good and I could be wrong. I can't place RR, because they seem to be a wild card; judges seem to either love them or hate them, sometimes both within the same contest.

[Anteok]

I think the top 3 will be CTJ, The Woodlands, and Marcus. However, I wouldn't be surprised if a school came up and knocked Marcus down a spot or two, which could be Round Rock, L.D. Bell, Flower Mound, Hebron, or Cedar Park. The last 7 is completely up for grabs though I would not be surprised at all if Vandergrift or Reagan placed top 8, they're definitely locks for finals, the rest is too ambiguous to tell. PESH had a great show last week at Area B as well as Westlake. However, schools like Spring, Cedar Ridge, and College Park have made finals trips before in recent history. So in all this contest may show some very interesting bands in finals this year.

 

I would hesitate predict a spot higher than third for CTJ this year, though they're certainly not locked out. The Woodlands are really on fire this year and gunning for the top; they will be hard to unseat. Also, though early season results are not necessarily indicative of late season performance, especially in bad weather conditions, Marcus's caption sweep over CTJ at Denton would indicate a very strong year for the band gunning for a State Champion 4-peat. Bell may have been knocked out of that triumvirate, and with Bowie not competing at BOA SA, CTJ certainly has the best shot they've ever had for the gold. But I still think that those two powerhouses are going to push Johnson back to bronze. Hebron also has a pretty strong shot at jumping CTJ.

[Drummantx]

I have no idea what's going to happen after area weekend, therefore waffles.

[T.Stechnij]

I would place Spring, Flower Mound, Plano East, and Cedar Park all higher than you have them listed. Spring came within a couple of points of taking the Woodlands at area F prelims, and is a pretty consistent finalist at SA. I can imagine them missing finals, but not easily. I'd bet on them in front of Vandegrift. Plano East had a phenomenal showing in Area B, taking 3rd ahead of Bell, (though the "ahead of Bell" part probably won't translate to BOA.) and Flower Mound has one of the most BOA-friendly shows I've ever seen. I don't know if I'd bet quite so highly on Cedar Ridge, though they're very good and I could be wrong. I can't place RR, because they seem to be a wild card; judges seem to either love them or hate them, sometimes both within the same contest.

I can see where you are coming from in a lot of this--

 

Obviously my predictions are super not politically correct but do have reasons for this!

 

 

• Spring plays and marches well, but from what I have heard those tents will really hold them back. I have not seen anything from them and I just have troubles placing them! 13th last year? That makes it scary for me to put them in here when people are saying that they are possible weaker this year. Trust me though-- Area F threw me way off. It was SO close between them and The Woodlands- Woah. I can see them anywhere between 9th and 16th. Who knows really?
  
• Flower Mound show, man- so darn cute. Their GE score will be really high but I can't see their Music and Visual scores breaking top 7 or 8. Don't get me wrong-- they play great, but this year is stacked. I cannot see them missing finals- in consolation.
  
• Can someone get me a video of Plano East? I haven't seen it! I am giving them their rankings based solely off of their experience in BOA; always so close! I wish I could base it off of Area B but... what the heck. The results are too inconsistent for me to base any judgement off of. I didn't use them for PES, Bell or Flower Mound. They were just too odd.
  
• Like I said about that 8-11 section, who knows, in my opinion they are all very on par. I think that out of the four show either us, Cedar Ridge, or Round Rock has the most effect, Cedar Park probably marches the best and Vandegrift or Cedar Park probably sound the best. I could see these groups all being within two points of each other. I could also see them being like 8 points of each other; odd. Like you said about RR (don't know if you are talking about Reagan or Round Rock, both applicable) they could really be anywhere between 5 and 11.
  I just had to push my program up to the top of the pack in hopefulness. c:
  
• Ronald Reagan can REALLY play; I have said before- Denton must have been a shocker- Conroe's second was well deserved and they keep improving! I think the music is bland, personally and it isn't my favorite show but they perform it very well.
  

 

 

I am very very excited for this weekend. Very nervous too~

Edited October 31, 2012 by T.Stechnij

[Nosagi]

This is a tough time for those trying to predict results for both the Super Regional and UIL State. Mainly because we have to remember results from the area contests are almost inadmissible to THIS contest. Judging variances, show styles, performing in the cold, all these factors mean that EVERYTHING could change on saturday. Sorry for this little reminder, but this a forum for all, and not everyone are aware of these facts. The bands in top 3 on Saturday could be in switched places Tuesday, even with the same performances just because of different judges and a different system.

[mellopwn1]

This is a tough time for those trying to predict results for both the Super Regional and UIL State. Mainly because we have to remember results from the area contests are almost inadmissible to THIS contest. Judging variances, show styles, performing in the cold, all these factors mean that EVERYTHING could change on saturday. Sorry for this little reminder, but this a forum for all, and not everyone are aware of these facts. The bands in top 3 on Saturday could be in switched places Tuesday, even with the same performances just because of different judges and a different system.

 

This is a valid point. The Woodlands stands a good chance of winning on Saturday but more than likely will not place in the top 3 on Tuesday.

 

For San Antonio, I think Marcus and TW will be very close. Marcus essentially has music in the bag. They sound better than last while TW sounds about the same. Marcus will also probably be more visually polished than TW as well. I think it is going to come down to GE between the two.

Edited October 31, 2012 by mellopwn1

[Rubisco]

This is a valid point. The Woodlands stands a good chance of winning on Saturday but more than likely will not place in the top 3 on Tuesday.

 

For San Antonio, I think Marcus and TW will be very close. Marcus essentially has music in the bag. They sound better than last while TW sounds about the same. Marcus will also probably be more visually polished than TW as well. I think it is going to come down to GE between the two.

 

GE is usually the deciding factor in BOA, for obvious reasons. I'm not sure I think Marcus sounds better this year than last, although the music they're playing is more impressive if done well. Still, they'll probably win music, unless they get a couple of judges like they had in finals last year. (I believe Marcus was 3rd in ensemble music performance to Bell and TW.) On a side note, I think TW is actually the group that sounds better than last year. Last year there were parts that were very frantic and blotty sounding, a little rough around the edges. Exciting, but still. This year, since there seems to be less visual demand, they sound much calmer, and there's more clarity in their sound. This should help their chances at UIL as well.

 

Visual is more up in the air. There's a good chance Marcus will win visual as well, but it's not as likely as music. TW's show was VERY clean last year (19+'s in ensemble visual all 5 rounds of late season competition, 2nd place in ensemble visual to Avon in national finals). Considering the show seems less visually demanding this year, I think they could have reached that level of cleanliness again, although I haven't seen them recently. It could come down to the individual performance subcaption.

 

I'm excited to see where Berkner places. I'm not as confident about their show as others, and I don't see it placing in the top 5, but it could make finals. I really do like a lot of the things they're doing visually, although I'm not sure I'd have the LCD thingies on the whole show. It gets sort of distracting after a while.

[Sousapwn10]

I can see where you are coming from in a lot of this--

 

Obviously my predictions are super not politically correct but do have reasons for this!

 

 

• Spring plays and marches well, but from what I have heard those tents will really hold them back. I have not seen anything from them and I just have troubles placing them! 13th last year? That makes it scary for me to put them in here when people are saying that they are possible weaker this year. Trust me though-- Area F threw me way off. It was SO close between them and The Woodlands- Woah. I can see them anywhere between 9th and 16th. Who knows really?
  
• Flower Mound show, man- so darn cute. Their GE score will be really high but I can't see their Music and Visual scores breaking top 7 or 8. Don't get me wrong-- they play great, but this year is stacked. I cannot see them missing finals- in consolation.
  
• Can someone get me a video of Plano East? I haven't seen it! I am giving them their rankings based solely off of their experience in BOA; always so close! I wish I could base it off of Area B but... what the heck. The results are too inconsistent for me to base any judgement off of. I didn't use them for PES, Bell or Flower Mound. They were just too odd.
  
• Like I said about that 8-11 section, who knows, in my opinion they are all very on par. I think that out of the four show either us, Cedar Ridge, or Round Rock has the most effect, Cedar Park probably marches the best and Vandegrift or Cedar Park probably sound the best. I could see these groups all being within two points of each other. I could also see them being like 8 points of each other; odd. Like you said about RR (don't know if you are talking about Reagan or Round Rock, both applicable) they could really be anywhere between 5 and 11.
  I just had to push my program up to the top of the pack in hopefulness. c:
  
• Ronald Reagan can REALLY play; I have said before- Denton must have been a shocker- Conroe's second was well deserved and they keep improving! I think the music is bland, personally and it isn't my favorite show but they perform it very well.
  

 

 

I am very very excited for this weekend. Very nervous too~

 

Have you seen Berkner?? Their show is NOTHING like it was at Denton. I feel like people are discounting them, because they are making predictions based off of their performance at Denton. In my opinion, they have potential for a top five spot.

[cfband]

I have seen TWHS show 5 times this fall (Believe me, that is enough when you are competing against them). It is amazing.

 

Simple - Clean - Emotional.

 

I not much on Props just for props sake, but in Sept they had a 5th letter on the field that was not opened. NUMBER ONE question in the stands was - What does that letter say? It was killing my wife. That is how emotionally involved the audience gets.

 

They have removed the fifth letter, but still saw women wiping their eyes at area last Saturday.

Edited November 1, 2012 by cfband