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LHSax

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Everything posted by LHSax

  1. I think Cedar Ridge definitely just set a solid bubble bar. I think it will be extremely difficult for the other bubble bands to bump that out, but Westwood will get the first chance...let's see.
  2. Glad we could wail on Avon enough to get you to come out from the shadows. But really, welcome to TXBands. One has to ask based on your micro drill writing prowess, are you involved in the Avon program at all? As others have said, it's an amazing show, but it's amazing-ness in all other facets makes the awkwardness of the narration even more apparent. I'm fine with it the first time, especially as it distorts in the opener. I can even live with the introduction to the modern examples. It's the "...most iconic music EVERRRR" line that borders cringe-y to me.
  3. Alright, time for my final thoughts. I’m just gonna skip right past the locks, because they’ve been discussed to death and I think all these lists generally agree on 10-11 bands (The Big 8 from LISD N/S and NEISD, The W, and Keller). I even think most of us agree on the general order of these within 1 or 2 spots, except for the order of the GN bands in the 3-7 range (I’ll put my money on Vandy at 3) and who wins (I earlier stated Reagan would run away with it, but Flowermound is giving me second thoughts…I still pick Reagan though). For the sake of this post, I’ll put LD Bell as my 11th lock, but they aren’t as locked as the other 10 to me. That leaves 3 spots in my mind as bubble spots that I’d like to focus on, and the Austin bands have done a great job at making these spots darn hard to predict. To be clear, I believe the last 3 spots will come from Austin, maybe partially due to bias, but mostly because of what some of these bands have done outside of Austin. Generally, I think the last 3 spots will go to some combination of the bands who finished 5-10 at the Austin regional, plus Westlake as a wildcard…Let’s jump in (in order of how they finished in Austin)- Cedar Park came roaring out the gates, as some here predicted even before they showed up to BOA Austin and took 5th. This is probably my favorite Cedar Park show of the last 3-4 years, and I definitely went into this year worried that last year would be the beginning of a slump for CP. Whether they make finals here or not, they have definitely proven that they’re still the Cedar Park that has been the definition of consistency for over a decade. The video from the rehearsal where the lights went out is awesome (Iove the crowd reaction) and it’s got me hyped for their upcoming week. I do think their performance draw is a little rough, having to perform pretty closely after the top 3 LISD bands, but I think they can overcome that. Cedar Ridge has been quiet since Austin, but they’re probably the closest I have to a lock out of this group. I believe they’ve finished in the top 15 in their last 4 or 5 appearances here, so it’s really hard to imagine them out, especially with a show that I’m expecting to have bloomed from what was already a crowd favorite in Austin. I would be more surprised to see them out than in. Lake Travis has trended towards the backside of the bubble, but I don’t count them out just yet. This show is a massive improvement from what they’ve put out in the past, and while the 12th place at St. Louis was a bit disappointing (relative to booming expectations), it’s key to note they were half a point away from finishing top have in prelims, which would’ve secured them a likely top 7 finish. Again, regardless of where they end up (I see them on the outside looking in), I like their direction for the future, and hope to see more next year. Bowie did a fantastic job at muddying up the bubble in Waco. If Bowie has finished 2nd/3rd in Waco, as most predicted here, then I think most would consider Bowie on the outside looking in. And that would be fair, considering Bowie’s relatively slow start to the season. I agree with most that this show is blossoming at the right time, and slowly working up everyone’s list, but it’s hard for me to consider them a lock when they were pretty clearly topped by these other Austin area bands that we’re considering bubble bands in 2 separate competitions. But how can Bowie be a bubble band when they just handily topped a band most consider to be a lock?? Is Keller less of a lock than we think? Is Bowie just drastically improved from early season? This is where the bubble gets less clear. Rouse is another Austin area band having a fantastic breakout year. Their 4th place at TMC was eye-opening, but it’s hard to know how much to take from a non-BOA contest. I generally tend to think Rouse is still a year away, but I would not be at all surprised to see them sneak in. Westwood is another band who really muddies the bubble. I, like many, love this show, but I don’t exactly know how to treat it’s results this year. They finished 10th in Austin, which was a super feat for this band in the first place, but their 3rd place in Houston is what really sparked the Westwood hype train. It’s hard for me to determine how much stock to put in this result though. I do know that this result, along with Bowie’s Waco result, are the basis for why I believe the Austin bands will dominate the bubble. I generally think the results of the year have proven that the Austin regional is the toughest non-super regional in terms of the top to bottom quality of finals. But without a head to head comparison, it’s hard to know if Westwood has jumped the bands above since Austin. I certainly think they have a show to do it, but I have trouble determining which of these groups they can jump ahead of. We’ll see. Westlake is impossible to count out in my opinion. They have constantly found ways to sneak into finals on the biggest stages, and I think their 4th at Houston is just a sneak peak at what they’re capable of doing in terms of peaking at the right time (they rarely compete at early competitions in the past for this reason). They were a surprise finalist last year, and I’ve learned to not be surprised by their finals appearances anymore. If you forced me to choose between these groups, as of today, I'd go Bowie/Cedar Ridge/Cedar Park, but that may just be me relying to much on the history of these programs. But to me the "been there, done that" factor can have a major role. However, I'd be ecstatic to see the newcomers of the group break in. Yes, I know there are other dark horse bubble bands that aren’t part of this Austin bubble (Coppell, JBA and Vista Murrieta come to mind for me as having the most intrigue), but I very strongly lean to the bubble bands coming from the list above. And YES, I know it’s hard to compare results across competitions, and YES I know bands peak at different times, and YES I know “anything could happen,” but trends this year lead me to believe that there will be 6 Austin area bands in finals this year. Excited as always to watch if all unfold.
  4. And the winner for most notes goes to.... That musical book is something else. By no means something that you’ll find yourself humming afterwards, but fascinating to hear it on the field. And they’re MOVING for a lot of it!
  5. TIL - the eagle is named Kevin. And agreed. Will be tough to convince him to come down here when Avon is playing like that.
  6. I really tried to watch Carmel with an open mind this time around and really objectively see what they do right that makes them so though to beat.Their guard is phenomenal, the visual package does a good job of taking advantage of their size (although it’s just a bit too all over the place for my taste), and there are some great musical moments if you’re patient enough to get to them. That was definitely a iffy run for them musically (the tear actually lasted for quite a while), though I anticipate that won’t happen again in a couple weeks. That said, I think the gap to Avon tonight will be pretty substantial, and I think there’s plenty of space in that gap to fit at least 1 and maybe 2 Texas bands in there. This of course assumes the Texas 6 can’t top Avon of course, which I’m still skeptical about.
  7. Pppppllllleeeeeease just take out like....2 or 3 of the “8 notes” narrations and I’m completely on board this Avon train!
  8. That was admittedly the first time I’ve ever watched Lawrence Township and my goodness that show is pure entertainment!! Doesn’t get much more fun than that.
  9. Appreciate the response. The WGI promotion (and relegation?) system has always been a mystery to me. Would be interesting if the marching band circuit worked that way.
  10. This got me curious as to how often that exhibition has been not "needed"...IE, how often has an A or AA band made it into SA finals. If my research is correct, for this super regional - just once, Aledo in 2010. Vandy got close a couple times (even as a Class A band!) during their meteoric rise to where they are now, but didn't break through until they were Class AAA. Air Academy got VERY close in 2011 (I remember really wanting them to sneak into finals). Marion Catholic is obviously the best known "small class" band nationally, but even they have struggled to keep up with the big groups as of late.
  11. Let's take this to the next level... Sight Reading Marching Band
  12. I agree with most of this list. the 3-8 spots certainly have the most intrigue to me. I do think Hebron/Vandy have the best shots at taking 3/4 in some order, but 5-8 is a bit of a tossup to me, which is unfortunate, since one of those bands will fall under the top half/bottom half line in finals. It's extra hard to pin down since 5 of the 6 in that that 3-8 range are our GN attendees. While i would never hope for VR to be the odd one out, seeing our 5 top dogs back to back to back would make for a riveting finals, and an awesome preview for Indianapolis.
  13. Haha, fine, maybe a little bit of hyperbole, but the things they are doing are incredible (and doing well), and a lot more risky than the show as a whole. I'm not a guard guy by any means, but i can't take my eyes off of them. I'm behind on my guard knowledge...who is considered the upper echelon of guards in Texas?
  14. Ugh...I don't want to like it, but it's hard not to. It checks all the boxes and doesn't have any real fatal flaws. No one from Texas will touch that visually (I don't think the drill is anything too special, but they do it really well and the guard is just unreal...do they ever drop anything???), and it's good enough musically to finish 2nd/3rd, while being very accessible and well rounded enough to take the GE caption. I also hate the narration (sounds like a less integrated version of Crown 2013), and it's obviously not the most innovative show (the modern references are cute, I'll admit), but this definitely reduces my hopes for Team Texas....But not to zero. But I'll definitely prefer this show taking the eagle over Carmel this year.
  15. And no one’s calling this a done deal for Reagan (“that’s why we play the game”), but I may take odds of Reagan over the field at this point. This show is just a complete package, with few weaknesses and with plenty of room to grow. As I often do, I agree with PA…This show has a FM 16 powerhouse vibe.
  16. Seems like we all kind of new this was coming, but it’s exciting to see this officially. IIRC, they thought pretty hard about attending this year, but 2020 makes a lot more sense for a lot of reasons (aside from it being a 6A State year). I don’t think LISD was ever going to be able to send 3 bands in a single year, and the Texas 6 that ended up committing for this year makes the GN field pretty crowded. Next year is the perfect year to introduce themselves to the country, with a newly established staff, an emerging new identity, and a guard that is finally coming into it’s own after restarting 4-5 years ago.
  17. Well...since I kind of initiated that conversation, I will say I didn't mean to be all doom and gloom about this. I really thought after watching CTJ/Leander/Vandy and hearing clips of Hebron, that we'd be throwing Indy the best we have to offer (which we haven't quite done the last 5 or so years). I still think our groups have a great shot at taking 1-2 medals and an outside shot at taking home the eagle... But man, what Reagan is putting on the field this year would have a great chance at dominating Grand Nationals. I believe that show is special. That said, as I've mentioned somewhere else. a repeat of 2007 (where a band that doesn't win SA, wins GN) is definitely in the cards, and I think as a whole, these groups will make up most of the top half, which is amazing.
  18. While the BOA's judging breakdown is a bit different, it probably doesn't make much of a difference here. No matter the weighting of each judge, Reagan took first with every single judge but 1 (in prelims), and by a pretty consistent margin as well. In fact, by my math, 26 judges have judged Reagan, and only 1 of them has put them below first place through two pretty stacked competitions. That's a scorching start, even by Reagan standards. I really believed it would be tight at the top, considering how clean Vandy has been this early, maybe trading some captions but the judges have spoken. Now mind you, Reagan's top competition at each of these has been against shows that "are supposed to peak later in the season" as grand nationals attendees. But I actually think Reagan's show has as a high or higher of a ceiling than Vandy/Leander/Woodlands, so I get the feeling we once again won't be sending our top SA finisher(s) to Indianapolis. This will be a steep hill for Reagan's competition to climb.
  19. Is it too much Texas bias to say the show doesn’t do much for me and that I think at least 3 Texas bands have a chance to top it? Then again Carmel never does much for me and they keep on wining....
  20. HA, i still remember the mini freak-out all us teenage kids had when Richland busted out the Halo theme...Pair that with Hebron's DDR show that was around that same time, and we were watching our childhood summarized in marching form.
  21. Houston bands didn't really do themselves many favors to build confidence with the TXBands fanbase to start the year, as even with their best chance at a non-Woodlands Houston band taking a BOA medal since TWCP in 2014 (someone can correct me if I'm wrong there), they still all finished behind the smaller than typical contingency of Austin/SA bands. The fact that the 10th place band from BOA Austin finished 3rd in Houston, doesn't help rally the confidence (and that's not to take anything away from Westwood btw, they're having a fantastic year). Houston has a lot of really good bands, I don't want anyone to feel like I'm bashing Houston. But as has been noted, the best of the Houston bands (besides the Woodlands) have trended to finish in the 18-30 range at SA, and based on early results, they don't seem to have a standout group this year to go all in on. Maybe a hero will emerge though? EDIT: As I typed that, TWHSParent posted a great counter-point, which is just as valid as my perspective!
  22. While the 2 panel system has its flaws, this seems like a pretty fair split. I think the panel 2 bubble is a bit tougher, but we’ll see. The back to back to back LISD bands (and then CP 2 bands later?!?!) seems a bit odd but will give us some of the better back to back comparisons of prelims. Puts the panel in a weird place for scores though. Honestly a pretty rough spot for CP, but I think they’ll be okay.
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