UIL 5A State Marching Contest 2025 (Nov. 10 & 11)

[Baritone Legend]

I know I'm pretty much a year early, but there's no problem with that! what're y 'all's predictions, thoughts, or opinions? Just want to get a head start!

 

[ruben_f]

lol it not even 2025!! 
I’m guessing cedar park is winning this again? 

[Baritone Legend]

5 minutes ago, ruben_f said:

lol it not even 2025!! 
I’m guessing cedar park is winning this again? 

Gotta keep TX bands going!

I think you're right, CP will probably take it, but I think Rouse will give them a run for their money once again. The tension and competitiveness between those two is crazy!

[utee94]

I was commenting to my wife this morning that I'm already looking forward to the 2025 show reveal, which won't be happening until May!

But for now I'll go out on a limb and predict that Cedar Park and Rouse and Leander will field excellent shows that should all compete for top honors.

I'm also really looking forward to seeing what Friendswood and Argyle do, and then there's my absolute favorite show that didn't make Finals this year, Lake Belton.  I'm really interested to see what they look like next year as well.

 

[WanderingTraveler]

On 11/18/2024 at 9:32 AM, Baritone Legend said:

I know I'm pretty much a year early, but there's no problem with that! what're y 'all's predictions, thoughts, or opinions? Just want to get a head start!

 

Hard to say without knowing any possible region (or area) changes/new schools/etc. But there are a few things to note.

Area A: I think JM Hanks and the Lubbock schools retain their state bids, but I think Coronado makes a push to state.
Area B: I don't expect Wakeland or Lonestars tenure in this Area to be challenged, but I know that that Lebanon Trail is going to come back with vengeance and make it hard for McKinney North and Argyle to keep their state spots. However, it's hard to see either one of those programs getting knocked out. Interested to see what MN does show-wise next year. Also can't knock Reedy out of this picture, that program is getting super strong. This area only having 4 spots (assuming nothing changes) is going to unfortunately leave someone out...Having all 4 of these groups in 2024 finals is telling.
Area C- I do think Highland Park will eventually make it back to earning a state spot, its just a question of how long it will take. Mt. Pleasant and Poteet retain their state bids IMO, and I think either Kaufman (I see an upwards trend here) or HP takes a spot.
Area D- I don't really see any changes here. Hopefully they retain 5 state spots, but Hendrickson will stay at the top, but Pieper I think can maybe bubble to finals. I really like what the brass is doing in this group, and with a good show I think this is the trend. LB, JCH, and SV I see also advancing to the SMBC, making this area the same
Area E: If they retain 6 spots, I could see some shakeup. Friendswood, College Station, A&M Cons., and Barbers Hill I think keep their spots. I think Kempner also remains, but I think this groups trajectory is up, so I could see them placing higher in the area. My sleeper pick is Porter, is could see this group getting in.
Area F: This is another area that I don't see enough evidence pre-season to jump to any conclusions. I think Aledo, BC, Midlothian, CH, and Richland still advance, but I can see some shake up in finals. Aledo remains untouched in my opinion, but I could see an argument that Midlothian and BC swap finals spots. In my 2024 5A state predictions (after watching all the bands perform) I had Midlothian in finals, but that didn't end up happening. Also, BC has a INCREDIBLE drumline which makes it hard to surpass them with the state judging rubric. 
Area G: This area has a pretty competitive self-contained finals. Roma remains the Area G champion I think, but I could see massive shakeup to get Gladys Porter, James Pace, and Robert Vela a trip to the SMBC.
Area H: Cedar Park, Rouse and Leander clear this competition. Its hard to bet against the reigning medalists, but they are truly...that good. Final two, Glenn and LH keep like a pretty sure-pick, but I know I had Wagner initially in my predictions.

Way-to-early-top-12:

1. Cedar Park

2. Rouse

3. Lone Star (I will stand by Lone Stars prelims run at area, if they can have a run like again, I see them medaling)

4. Leander

5. Wakeland

6. Argyle

7. Hendrickson

8. McKinney North

9. Friendswood

10. Pieper

11. Midlothian

12. Lake Belton

NOTE: All of this is subjective without any show announcements, director changes, etc...So anything can happen.

[Baritone Legend]

1 hour ago, WanderingTraveler said:

Hard to say without knowing any possible region (or area) changes/new schools/etc. But there are a few things to note.

Area A: I think JM Hanks and the Lubbock schools retain their state bids, but I think Coronado makes a push to state.
Area B: I don't expect Wakeland or Lonestars tenure in this Area to be challenged, but I know that that Lebanon Trail is going to come back with vengeance and make it hard for McKinney North and Argyle to keep their state spots. However, it's hard to see either one of those programs getting knocked out. Interested to see what MN does show-wise next year. Also can't knock Reedy out of this picture, that program is getting super strong. This area only having 4 spots (assuming nothing changes) is going to unfortunately leave someone out...Having all 4 of these groups in 2024 finals is telling.
Area C- I do think Highland Park will eventually make it back to earning a state spot, its just a question of how long it will take. Mt. Pleasant and Poteet retain their state bids IMO, and I think either Kaufman (I see an upwards trend here) or HP takes a spot.
Area D- I don't really see any changes here. Hopefully they retain 5 state spots, but Hendrickson will stay at the top, but Pieper I think can maybe bubble to finals. I really like what the brass is doing in this group, and with a good show I think this is the trend. LB, JCH, and SV I see also advancing to the SMBC, making this area the same
Area E: If they retain 6 spots, I could see some shakeup. Friendswood, College Station, A&M Cons., and Barbers Hill I think keep their spots. I think Kempner also remains, but I think this groups trajectory is up, so I could see them placing higher in the area. My sleeper pick is Porter, is could see this group getting in.
Area F: This is another area that I don't see enough evidence pre-season to jump to any conclusions. I think Aledo, BC, Midlothian, CH, and Richland still advance, but I can see some shake up in finals. Aledo remains untouched in my opinion, but I could see an argument that Midlothian and BC swap finals spots. In my 2024 5A state predictions (after watching all the bands perform) I had Midlothian in finals, but that didn't end up happening. Also, BC has a INCREDIBLE drumline which makes it hard to surpass them with the state judging rubric. 
Area G: This area has a pretty competitive self-contained finals. Roma remains the Area G champion I think, but I could see massive shakeup to get Gladys Porter, James Pace, and Robert Vela a trip to the SMBC.
Area H: Cedar Park, Rouse and Leander clear this competition. Its hard to bet against the reigning medalists, but they are truly...that good. Final two, Glenn and LH keep like a pretty sure-pick, but I know I had Wagner initially in my predictions.

Way-to-early-top-12:

1. Cedar Park

2. Rouse

3. Lone Star (I will stand by Lone Stars prelims run at area, if they can have a run like again, I see them medaling)

4. Leander

5. Wakeland

6. Argyle

7. Hendrickson

8. McKinney North

9. Friendswood

10. Pieper

11. Midlothian

12. Lake Belton

NOTE: All of this is subjective without any show announcements, director changes, etc...So anything can happen.

earliest predictions of the year? I wanna see if you're right!

[Baritone Legend]

1 hour ago, WanderingTraveler said:

Hard to say without knowing any possible region (or area) changes/new schools/etc. But there are a few things to note.

Area A: I think JM Hanks and the Lubbock schools retain their state bids, but I think Coronado makes a push to state.
Area B: I don't expect Wakeland or Lonestars tenure in this Area to be challenged, but I know that that Lebanon Trail is going to come back with vengeance and make it hard for McKinney North and Argyle to keep their state spots. However, it's hard to see either one of those programs getting knocked out. Interested to see what MN does show-wise next year. Also can't knock Reedy out of this picture, that program is getting super strong. This area only having 4 spots (assuming nothing changes) is going to unfortunately leave someone out...Having all 4 of these groups in 2024 finals is telling.
Area C- I do think Highland Park will eventually make it back to earning a state spot, its just a question of how long it will take. Mt. Pleasant and Poteet retain their state bids IMO, and I think either Kaufman (I see an upwards trend here) or HP takes a spot.
Area D- I don't really see any changes here. Hopefully they retain 5 state spots, but Hendrickson will stay at the top, but Pieper I think can maybe bubble to finals. I really like what the brass is doing in this group, and with a good show I think this is the trend. LB, JCH, and SV I see also advancing to the SMBC, making this area the same
Area E: If they retain 6 spots, I could see some shakeup. Friendswood, College Station, A&M Cons., and Barbers Hill I think keep their spots. I think Kempner also remains, but I think this groups trajectory is up, so I could see them placing higher in the area. My sleeper pick is Porter, is could see this group getting in.
Area F: This is another area that I don't see enough evidence pre-season to jump to any conclusions. I think Aledo, BC, Midlothian, CH, and Richland still advance, but I can see some shake up in finals. Aledo remains untouched in my opinion, but I could see an argument that Midlothian and BC swap finals spots. In my 2024 5A state predictions (after watching all the bands perform) I had Midlothian in finals, but that didn't end up happening. Also, BC has a INCREDIBLE drumline which makes it hard to surpass them with the state judging rubric. 
Area G: This area has a pretty competitive self-contained finals. Roma remains the Area G champion I think, but I could see massive shakeup to get Gladys Porter, James Pace, and Robert Vela a trip to the SMBC.
Area H: Cedar Park, Rouse and Leander clear this competition. Its hard to bet against the reigning medalists, but they are truly...that good. Final two, Glenn and LH keep like a pretty sure-pick, but I know I had Wagner initially in my predictions.

Way-to-early-top-12:

1. Cedar Park

2. Rouse

3. Lone Star (I will stand by Lone Stars prelims run at area, if they can have a run like again, I see them medaling)

4. Leander

5. Wakeland

6. Argyle

7. Hendrickson

8. McKinney North

9. Friendswood

10. Pieper

11. Midlothian

12. Lake Belton

NOTE: All of this is subjective without any show announcements, director changes, etc...So anything can happen.

I bet Rouse though, after three years of silver, will push themselves as hard as they can to get gold, they've wanted it for so long, and have come so close! tension will be crazy! However, Anything can happen as you said. This is before any announcements!

[WanderingTraveler]

55 minutes ago, Baritone Legend said:

earliest predictions of the year? I wanna see if you're right!

All for fun  But would be funny if correct

 

36 minutes ago, Baritone Legend said:

I bet Rouse though, after three years of silver, will push themselves as hard as they can to get gold, they've wanted it for so long, and have come so close! tension will be crazy! However, Anything can happen as you said. This is before any announcements!

I would love Rouse to win. I thought they had it in 2023. But it just feels so cemented like Avon with grand nats...it's hard to bet against.

[Baritone Legend]

2 hours ago, WanderingTraveler said:

All for fun  But would be funny if correct

 

I would love Rouse to win. I thought they had it in 2023. But it just feels so cemented like Avon with grand nats...it's hard to bet against.

I agree with ya there!

[utee94]

23 hours ago, WanderingTraveler said:

I would love Rouse to win. I thought they had it in 2023. But it just feels so cemented like Avon with grand nats...it's hard to bet against.

Personally, I'd love to see Cedar Park win.

But the streak must inevitably end at some point.  I feel extremely blessed that each of my kids has had the chance to be a part of the Cedar Park band and that each was able to contribute their part to winning those state championships.  If 2024 was the last year, then they'll still have experienced something very special.  And certainly, there are valuable lessons to be learned from NOT winning, as well.  

Regardless I'm confident that all of the kids and all of the staff in all of the bands that compete, will give it their all, and put together some amazing shows for us to enjoy.  How lucky are we to live in a state that allows this kind of emphasis on the arts in general, and the marching arts specifically?

[WanderingTraveler]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Personally, I'd love to see Cedar Park win.

But the streak must inevitably end at some point.  I feel extremely blessed that each of my kids has had the chance to be a part of the Cedar Park band and that each was able to contribute their part to winning those state championships.  If 2024 was the last year, then they'll still have experienced something very special.  And certainly, there are valuable lessons to be learned from NOT winning, as well.  

Regardless I'm confident that all of the kids and all of the staff in all of the bands that compete, will give it their all, and put together some amazing shows for us to enjoy.  How lucky are we to live in a state that allows this kind of emphasis on the arts in general, and the marching arts specifically?

😆 Trust me, I don't think Cedar park will end their reign anytime soon, but you're right. I assume the same patterns every year, aka Hebron for 6A, Cedar park for 5A (and 4A before the divisional dip and jump), Avon for GN, etc but things inevitability shift over time for whatever reason.

I competed in the SMBC against Cedar park when I was in school, and they were still winning then.... so  Legacy for sure.

[utee94]

13 minutes ago, WanderingTraveler said:

😆 Trust me, I don't think Cedar park will end their reign anytime soon, but you're right. I assume the same patterns every year, aka Hebron for 6A, Cedar park for 5A (and 4A before the divisional dip and jump), Avon for GN, etc but things inevitability shift over time for whatever reason.

I competed in the SMBC against Cedar park when I was in school, and they were still winning then.... so  Legacy for sure.

Ha!  Well, competing in the SMBC at all, is still something quite special.

When I was in marching band at an AISD 5A school many many years ago, I don't recall us ever even proceeding to Area.  We did win the Westlake invitational one year, which shocked the heck out of everyone, including us!

 

[cheeto2401]

On 11/18/2024 at 9:37 AM, ruben_f said:

lol it not even 2025!! 
I’m guessing cedar park is winning this again? 

if they do they would hold the record for most state marching band championships, which would be awesome

[OGFISD99]

State is going to be one of the best this year.... I'm still give CP a razor thin edge... I think Rouse is going to come for the top spot.... Wakeland ,Leander,  are going to be fighting it out ... And I really do think Lone Star is going to be in the mix for top 4....... but it's still early..... 

[TexasStrangers]

Unless there is any real big changes, I don't see a lot of movement compared to last years results. There is just a small handful of schools that for some reason have that magical formula that equal success and it's up to the other schools to try and close the gaps.

 

[OGFISD99]

I've  think about the new judging format.... this could change somethings for all bands.... or am I thinking too much into it.  

[WanderingTraveler]

On 7/10/2025 at 11:58 PM, OGFISD99 said:

I've  think about the new judging format.... this could change somethings for all bands.... or am I thinking too much into it.  

Depends, what are you alluding to specifically?! Just curious

[OGFISD99]

I think the guard is going to have some impact on scores..... 

[wtxbd02]

On 7/10/2025 at 11:58 PM, OGFISD99 said:

I've  think about the new judging format.... this could change somethings for all bands.... or am I thinking too much into it.  

State Marching Contest didn't have any judging format changes.  

[SharksAreCool]

12 hours ago, OGFISD99 said:

I think the guard is going to have some impact on scores..... 

I feel like all the 5A guards are all fantastic and I don’t think they would cause much change between bands since it’s so heavily weighted on music.

[Tubalord11]

I’m pretty sure that it was only area getting a judge format change. State should be keeping the same 7-judge format that’s been used post-Covid 

[WanderingTraveler]

21 minutes ago, Tubalord11 said:

I’m pretty sure that it was only area getting a judge format change. State should be keeping the same 7-judge format that’s been used post-Covid 

That is what I thought as well, thanks for clarifying.

[cheesecurd21]

On 8/27/2025 at 11:51 PM, archeryfan0267 said:

Bumping this thread up the list. Any new thoughts?

Lone Star and Argyle both had their game Friday night. Both shows are very interesting, but looking very promising still! Visually maybe not all the way there yet, but musically very promising.

[OGFISD99]

40 minutes ago, cheesecurd21 said:

Lone Star and Argyle both had their game Friday night. Both shows are very interesting, but looking very promising still! Visually maybe not all the way there yet, but musically very promising.

I know Lone Star isn't even done with their opener they are still  working on the drill changing things everyday... 

[OGFISD99]

With all the videos out there of shows I see the top 5 being close this year.... Cedar Park,   Rouse, Wakeland, Leander, Lone Star....