
1998-2018
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Everything posted by 1998-2018
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2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
I have no interest in debating semantics with you, nor will I be sidetracked by a non sequitur. Especially when others have also tried to help with information and perspective and you responded to them with the same logical fallacy. You are still missing (or ignoring) the point. I hope that you enjoy the competition and your concerns don't spoil it for you. Please don't be this guy. http://www.poorlydrawnlines.com/comic/mad/ It's two days of wonderful performances regardless of who makes Finals. Good luck to your band program. Enjoy the journey, not just the destination. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Exactly! Any other questions or concerns? The message remains the same. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Incorrect. This statement reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of judging. Seeding a competition is a time-honored tradition and history shows us past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. While it might be tempting to say this could become self reinforcing, all you have to do is watch the historic videos (and understand the judge's perspective) to see they generally get it right. It works. Any historic bias ends when the music starts. Your last sentence appears to reveal your own bias, or perhaps frustration, and completely fails Dawkins Razor. Unless you provide support, it can be dismissed without rebuttal even though there is amply evidence to the contrary. See above: Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. Of course the judges know the history of the bands involved and they have some idea of what to expect. That's not bias, it's necessary competence. Nobody gets "rooked". If the new band is clearly better, it will be reflected in the scores. Keep in mind, "clearly better" and "just as good" are different standards to a judge and there is a long-standing tradition across subjective competitions that the challenger must make a statement. If this is what you mean by "bias" I will still disagree with you and strongly recommend you get used to it. Nobody backs into Finals. You did say they were biased, prejudicial, and unfair. Some level of backlash shouldn't surprise you. Nobody will get screwed. Somebody will definitely be very disappointed. But that happens every year, regardless of how many judging panels there are or how the schedule is determined. The solution is to avoid being a bubble band. Continue to do the hard work to get better and make an undeniable statement. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
They are clearly capable of very clean runs but part of the genius of their show designs the last couple years is how it can hide massive amounts of dirt when they have a rough run. For all the talk about the advantage of learning the complete show early and cleaning all season I think their 2017 BOA SA performances, while impressive, was probably the dirtiest runs I have ever seen win gold. The send off performance for their parents was significantly cleaner. All that speed and chaotic drill combined with great music and big sound can be mesmerizing to their advantage. However as judges become more accustomed to the style, the subterfuge will likely be less effective. I love the band so think of this as a "left-handed complement" more than a criticism and potentially an early warning of how judge's reactions may evolve. -
Pop!
1998-2018 replied to whitewing09's topic in Everything Music: Marching, Concert, Auditions and more
The Marilyn Monroe flag is also Andy Worhol's art. While the flying machine itself is an act of engineering Leonardo da Vinci's engineering drawings of the machine definitely rise to the level of art. During this section there is also drill that represents the transition style between these two periods and it is very reminiscent of L.D. Bell during their powerhouse years. Everybody recognizes Vincent van Gogh's Starry Night but sometimes the more off-beat visual arts references get lost when mixed with the marching or music arts. I like how Flower Mound has maintained an identity while also pushing boundaries. On a sidenote, Keller is also getting questions about their theme this year. For anyone wondering it's the art of Dutch graphic artist M.C. Escher incorporated into costumes, flags, props, and drill. His work is intriguing and some of his quotes are hilarious. -
And you didn't even mention some bands that did make Area B Finals last time. If there's a "tougher more competitive Area" out there, Area B has a half dozen bands (or more) that are ready to transfer.
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2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
In the list I posted yesterday it included two bands most likely to be 2018 heartbreakers and looking at your list I think we agree on the two most likely to be heartbroken (versus 2017). All four are in Panel 1 which has me leaning toward an even split at this point. I'd like to see Area B before committing to a 3/1 split from Panel 2 but it's certainly possible. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Thank you! You shed some additional light on principleagent's explanation and clarified the distinction for me. It sounds like the Top 30 is intended to be traditional reporting with good old fashioned journalistic integrity. Facts (what happened), a bit of analysis to account for bands that haven't gone head-to-head, which might require a hint of opinion. Then the Event Predictions become more like an Op-ed piece from an informed fan. Lots of analysis, loaded with opinion, maybe even a hint of speculation, on a foundation of past results that a fan might find debatable. That difference easily resolves any perception of contradiction. Awesome! -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Finals could easily have more movement then we have seen in recent years. The Top 5/P1, Top 5/P2, Next 4 overall format could potentially put bands into 11th and 12th that might otherwise have been in the Top half (6th & 7th) with a single judging panel. It probably won't be quite that volatile but just in case strap in tightly, this could be an emotional rollercoaster. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
The current Top 30 list came out before Waco. It's not the reason for the drop. Keep in mind 8th at BOA Austin doesn't translate to 8th in the country. If they are considering even four other competitions the four 8th place bands would start out grouped around 24th place (8×4=24) and then adjustments would be made from there. Keller placed 3nd at BOA DFW right behind Hebron who was ranked 2nd in the country at the time but in the next Top 30 Keller was ranked 13th (again, 3×4=12). The math is just a simple estimate used for illustration, it's the broader principle that is important to understand. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
That's something I looked at too while researching the list I posted. We all come together at this competition making it the largest and best of the best in Texas so it has more in common with a fine smoked brisket than grilled ground sausage. Change comes slowly because excellence generally takes time. It always seems to take longer than we expect for new bands to break into this elite group. P.S. Don't start sending hate my way. It's just a metaphor and I love grilled sausage too. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
I was aware of almost all of that. The one part that was new is that the individual author of the prediction article was also allowed to make individual predictions for that contest. While that local familiarity seems like it could be beneficial in the early Regionals I feel like there should be enough data to make it unnecessary by the time we get to Super Regionals and Grand Nationals and group aggregate predictions are usually more accurate if the group/sample is large enough. I'd prefer to see the Top 30 and contest predictions in sync that late in the season. But I'm just one opinion and I often see the Top 30 or predictions a bit differently than HornRank anyway. It doesn't keep me from being a fan. Thanks for being so thorough when you answered my question. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
He said he was waiting to see the schedule before making predictions. That's the issue I was addressing. Everything you said, while possible, is irrelevant to that specific issue. While it is possible that one panel may give higher scores relative to the other panel, therefore biasing the selection of the last four Finalist, there is no way to know in advance if this will happen or which panel may inadvertently create the bias so waiting for the schedule also remains largely irrelevant to the issue of making predictions. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
BOA has already said they are taking the last three years into account. That means the schedule is unlikely to make a meaningful difference to any band that has a reasonable likelihood of making Finals. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
This is true even across different BOA contests. Scores are relative, not a precise measurement against a traceable standard. And they tend to increase over the course of the season. -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Different from the current list? Yes. Dramatically different? Not by my definition of the word. E.g., the order is more likely to change than many of the bands on the list. And of course the contest results will differ from the prediction, that's expected. So are you saying there will be more than three band in BOA SA Finals that were not there last year and more than two bands that have never been in BOA SA Finals? Edit: Wait a minute, are you also saying their predictions won't simply lift the Texas bands from the latest Top 30 and Next Ten? Why on Earth would they contradict themselves like that? -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
I don't like making public predictions but I don't mind when others do and I definitely enjoy analyzing data, so here goes. Looking at the Texas bands in the HornRank Top 30 and The Next Ten would lead me to believe those looking for big changes with many new faces are likely to be disappointed. The following list has the 09 OCT 18 HornRank band placements before the slash and the 2017 BOA SA Finals band placements after the slash. 09 OCT 18 / 2017 BOA SA 01. Claudia Taylor Johnson / Claudia Taylor Johnson 02. Ronald Reagan / Hebron 03. Flower Mound / Vandergrift 04. Leander / Avon 05. Hebron / Ronald Reagan 06. Vandergrift / Flower Mound 07. The Woodlands / Marcus 08. Vista Ridge / Cedar Park 09. Keller / Keller 10. James Bowie / Hendrickson 11. Cedar Park / The Woodlands 12. Marcus / Cedar Ridge 13. Cedar Ridge / James Bowie 14. Hendrickson / Leander 15. L.D. Bell / L.D. Bell 16. Timber Creek / Vista Ridge 17. Prosper / Pearland 18. Round Rock / Round Rock 19. Winston Churchill/ Westwood Avon won't be in San Antonio this year which makes room for Vista Ridge. Other than that it's the same bands as last year battling for placement in Finals. L.D. Bell is in the same place, one spot out, and they've improved so they may displace someone. The only truly new band in a strong position for an upset is Timber Creek. (Vista Ridge and L.D. Bell are previous SA Finalists) HornRank also noted after BOA DFW that many felt Timber Creek may have overtaken L.D. Bell if Finals weren't rained out so TC is a serious contender too. Prosper is generating a lot of buzz as well this year and has high hopes based on their improvement. They were a bit farther back in the mix at BOA DFW but have an outside shot at being the other new band. That leaves Round Rock and Winston Churchill next and they're both previous Finalist at this competition. It will be interesting to see how the HornRank list developes over the coming weeks leading up to their predictions and the contest but for the most part it's really looking like the usual suspects again. As always, anything can still happen once the music starts! -
2018 BOA San Antonio?
1998-2018 replied to MadisonBandMan1's topic in Past Contests, Events, and Festivals Archive
Who has only 150 horns? /s -
The acoustics there are awful, it would cost $25+ to park and another $25+ for a hotdog with a drink. Plus the interest charges on the payment plan for the high dollar General Admission One Day Season Ticket Plan Jerry would dream up. No thank you.