LHSax

Always believed this to be an exaggerated point. Does UIL emphasize cleanliness? Yes. Is it the only factor? Definitely not. A crazy difficult show can mask a few cleanliness errors by simply by being an impressive show. (IE whitewing's example above)
 
I've never been a big believer that judges are checking off boxes in a rubric of difficulty and cleanliness. The fact is, that no matter what the competition is, judges will score a show based on how much they like it...and that's based on a number of factors that they personally find important, based on how they were taught and how they teach. Are there bands that excel a bit more under UIL rubrics? yes...But generally the finals bands at BOA and UIL overlap because a good show is a good show.

The not so bold prediction would be - the winner will come from LISD. I'd say that's a pretty safe bet.

What about CTJ getting 3rd in 2014? I remember that show being particularly difficult, but not particularly clean.

Most are at least doing a closer tag.  

I don't think anyone's discounting Cedar Park. I love their musical selections this year, and especially love the opening. However, I think most are in agreement that Leander is on a whole other level this year. I don't know if I'm exaggerating, but I really think they're pushing the envelope this year, similar to what Bluecoats have done the last few years. Just coincidence that they're both blue?

Can you wish for Hebron to win Grand Nationals while you're at it please?

This part still wow's me in Vista's show. It gets a little overlooked because they make it looks so easy somehow...but they're not only playing in 7/8 and 9/8 sometimes...they're marching 4/4 (5/4?) at times, while playing 9/8 music...Still have no idea how they pull that off so well. 

While it creates some issues, I'm gonna play devils advocate here and agree with PA...this was obviously a move to allow for those 1A schools to get a chance to perform in front of a substantial crowd, and I honestly think it's a pretty admirable move if this is the case. Logistics wise, yeah, its causes some weird obstacles, but as PA mentioned, this will likely give these schools a chance to play for a crowd 10 times larger than what they've seen before. UIL will get some upset parents over this move...but I say kudos for understanding that the whole point of UIL is to give schools of all sizes a platform to create memorable/once in a lifetime experiences, and I think this does that. 

While it creates some issues, I'm gonna play devils advocate here and agree with PA...this was obviously a move to allow for those 1A schools to get a chance to perform in front of a substantial crowd, and I honestly think it's a pretty admirable move if this is the case. Logistics wise, yeah, its causes some weird obstacles, but as PA mentioned, this will likely give these schools a chance to play for a crowd 10 times larger than what they've seen before. UIL will get some upset parents over this move...but I say kudos for understanding that the whole point of UIL is to give schools of all sizes a platform to create memorable/once in a lifetime experiences, and I think this does that. 

While I don't read much into these...It does bring up a good point that no one has repeated since Bell in 08-09, which is awesome...we've also had 4 different champions in the last 4 years. I predict a 5th different one this year

Well, I remember when all classes had state contest every year in Austin. Each class would have their prelims at a separate stadium, so you'd have to choose which one you wanted to watch. I typically watched the 5A's at Burger Center in South Austin. The finals for all classes were held at UT Stadium. There were around 5 bands per class in the finals and it was nice to be able to watch the best of all the classes perform. If I remember right, 1990 was the last year that all classes went every year and Bowie had just been established in 1988. This was before many of the current top bands were even opened, like Hebron (1999), The Woodlands (1996), Reagan (1999), CTJ (2008), Cedar Park (1998), Vandegrift (2009), Vista Ridge (2003), Cedar Ridge (2010), Flower Mound (1999), and Hendrickson (2003) to name a few.
 
This too was a very long day, but you got to see all classes perform in the finals, which I do miss.

Hi PA
 
I don't think anything has gotten totally vitriolic yet.  I think the biggest deal with this is the date.  If this weren't a week day, it wouldn't be as big of a deal.  Make this a Friday or Saturday and I think the problem is (mostly) solved.  Kids don't have to miss but one day of school.  Far fewer parents have to make work arrangements and more people could attend. 

This part still wow's me in Vista's show. It gets a little overlooked because they make it looks so easy somehow...but they're not only playing in 7/8 and 9/8 sometimes...they're marching 4/4 (5/4?) at times, while playing 9/8 music...Still have no idea how they pull that off so well. 

While it creates some issues, I'm gonna play devils advocate here and agree with PA...this was obviously a move to allow for those 1A schools to get a chance to perform in front of a substantial crowd, and I honestly think it's a pretty admirable move if this is the case. Logistics wise, yeah, its causes some weird obstacles, but as PA mentioned, this will likely give these schools a chance to play for a crowd 10 times larger than what they've seen before. UIL will get some upset parents over this move...but I say kudos for understanding that the whole point of UIL is to give schools of all sizes a platform to create memorable/once in a lifetime experiences, and I think this does that. 

I think one of the major faults in your argument is that not a single judge agrees with you, in the entire day. I understand being upset by highly inconsistent judges (kind of), but there's not much to be upset by in this specific competition because the judging was impressively consistent.  So unless they were ALL "looking at butterflies," it seems your opinion is the outlier.
 
Also, "falls" are rarely if ever a reason for judges to deduct from a show. Falls are freak things that happen to everyone, and aren't necessarily a reflection of the quality of a show. Its also very hard to make the UIL vs BOA case against dripping springs, as they have historically leaned much more of a UIL friendly show designs, and are consistently a fine example of cleanliness vs "showiness"
 
McCallum had one of the best placements at this competition they've ever had and should be quite proud of it, but unfortunately ran into 5 of the best bands in the state in this competition. I hope they can build on this momentum and continue to improve in the upcoming years. 

The really tricky part about predicting this contest is the historical peaking of a lot bands this year. 
 
You have the traditional powers (bands that have been near the top the last 10 years)
Woodlands
Marcus 
Bowie
 
The new powers (bands that have established themselves the last few years)
CTJ
Hebron
Leander
 
And the new contenders (bands that have had great success early this year)
Reagan (yes, theve been established for a while, but they're finally a contender this year)
Flowermound
 
Combine all these and you have a formula for a ridiculously unpredictable competition. I once made a post (about 4-5 years ago) that asked if TX bands had become too predictable, with Marcus/LD Bell dominating every competition for 4-5 years. Well that era has obviously ended and the chance for a band to really dominate over multiple years (what I called a "dynasty") really seems limited at this point. And I couldn't be more excited about that! This is gonna be fun!

To be clear, I think there's a a pretty defined top 5 and if I were a betting man (side note - could you imagine and illegal underground marching band gambling ring?) I would easily put money on the 5 that have been mentioned. 9 out of 10 times I think these bands would advance in this contest. But that 10th time becomes more likely with a rainy prelims only day.

This would be great news for Area D! Bad news for the rest of the state 
 
People consistently ask why there's so much focus on Area D bands on the site. Well it's partially because most of the users here are from Centex. But here's the other reason -
 
Fun numbers from the past 4 rounds of UIL 5A State (previously 4A)
 
15/16 Area D bands advancing to State have made state finals (potential for 5 for 5 this year?)
7/12 medals have gone to Area D
Last 3 gold medalists have come from area D, with three different bands winning those. Will there be a 4th this year?

Weather doesn't look great for most of Texas this weekend...which is a real bummer because these are competitions that desperately need prelims/finals to get the right bands through to state. Not optimistic we'll see too many finals with the current forecast. 

Predictions were so much easier 10 years ago when I could say - 1. Marcus, 2. LD Bell....everybody else. But this is WAY more fun. 

Okay, let's take a step back and breathe.
 
Back in the day when I was in band, I remember it being very easy to get attached and emotional, especially because just about everyone holds a very high sense of pride in their program and don't want it to be undervalued and under ranked. My alma mater would always be underestimated on here or the BOA forums when I was still in high school and it didn't feel great to read, but at the end of the day, you just perform your show, and nobody but the judges and most importantly you and your bandmates can really say at the end of the day how awesome you were. Especially in such a highly competitive band district like LISD where the non-band school rivalries can be a bit vicious, this kind of close comparison isn't always fun or can feel not so great.
 
Ultimately, watching people say "wow X really stepped it up" or "Y band put on a great show" or whatever when nobody expected it feels really great compared to just being expected to win or medal or make finals or what have you. Remember, at the end of the day, most of us on these band forums are band nerds that didn't learn how to stop caring so much after we graduated (guilty as charged). So just remember what my band director would tell me: It's just band!

While I'll stay true to my prediction of a lot of flipping to happen among the LISD bands this year, I think it's gonna be really tough to dethrone Vandy in terms of UIL State. I also believe that Area D finals this year might just be a stronger field than state finals. With Friendswood and Dawson moving up, there aren't many threats to Area D IMO. Yes, Wakeland, Lake Ridge and others may make me eat my words, but I honestly think the 5th-7th place bands in Area D (which will likely not advance to state unfortunately) will be more competition for the top 4 bands then those same places at state.
 
Long story short - Area D finals will be just as, if not more exciting than SMBC.
 
Edit: removed a video from LAST years Vandy show (fail)

The marching pads are finally active again and the horrible tan lines have begun! Marching season is back and it's time to get some fun discussion rolling on these boards. So here's what I'm proposing - post one (or more) storyline(s) you're excited to follow this season, and add a bold prediction. 
 
For example-
 
Storyline - As always I'm excited to follow what might be the final epic chapter (for now) of the Leander ISD blood bath. After this year these bands will likely divide into different classes, and the opening of a new school will once again take a little toll on these schools. But this year, these bands will be fully stocked and loaded, and I think will be better than ever! The Vandy/CP/Leander/Vista showdown will have many chapters this year, meeting at least 3 times (BOA Austin, Texas Marching Classic, Area) before the final rounds in San Antonio. Will there even be enough room for all these bands to advance to state? I sure hope so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a different band end up on top at each meeting. 
 
Prediction - Leander ISD will get it's 3rd straight 5A (4A) title (maybe not so bold), but it won't be from a band that got the district the last two. 

Wow...that last block 

Wow...that last block