Rubisco

Oh, and for the record, the three I haven't seen are Claudia Taylor Johnson, James Bowie, and The Woodlands. So, if or when you stumble across something from those groups, you know whom to share it with!

I don't think Owasso is a lock for finals. I also don't think FloMo's win at Arlington ensures their win here. (They won by a tenth of a point, after all.) Looking through the list, I've noticed 12 bands that I'd be very surprised to see out of finals. Those groups are: Cedar Park, Claudia Taylor Johnson, Flower Mound, Hebron, James Bowie, Leander, Marcus, Ronald Reagan, Round Rock, The Woodlands, Vandegrift, and Wakeland. So, there go twelve spots. That's a lot of spots! Mind you, I've only seen 9 of those shows, and not in their entirety, so I'm basing this mostly on those groups' very strong early results. As for the remaining two spots, I predict that they'll come down to Cedar Ridge, Coppell, Hendrickson, Keller, and Owasso. That's really the best I can do at this point as far as predicting the finalists. Actually, I'm willing to bet that that's just about the best anybody can do at this point, since I doubt anybody on these forums has seen all of those shows. As for the placements, I can think of a few trends. Most of the SA champions in the past (two-thirds of them) have won an earlier regional. Notable exceptions include Westfield in 2003, Ronald Reagan in 2004, Marcus in 2010, and LD Bell in 2011. So, this favors Flower Mound, Leander (Round Rock?), and Ronald Reagan for the SA championship this year. I also tend to think that the groups going to Nationals will shape up quite a bit towards the end of their seasons, since they often bite off more on those seasons than the other bands do. That hasn't always been the case, but it makes me want to predict, for instance, Keller for a finals spot. Along a similar vein, perennial late-bloomer The Woodlands has never placed out of the top 3 at SA on a Nationals year. But honestly, this is all pretty meaningless. If there were ever a year for trends to be broken, it would be this one.

I'm hesitant to judge anything based on any of these results, especially when I haven't seen all of the top groups. I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is that each competition so far has been A.) An early one, and B.) Judged by one panel of judges, whose opinions likely won't be the same as those of the panels we'll see later in the season. Everything is way, way too close this year for me to think that Band A will definitely be ahead of Band B at San Antonio, at least among that top group, which is HUGE this year. I can't even break them up into groups like I could last year, some of which ended up being wrong anyway.

Yeah, Wakeland got a generous (and in my view, accurate) visual GE score in prelims that helped with that.

Putting these results together with the (probably unreliable) TOC results, it would seem as though the top groups from Arlington and Conroe are ahead of the top groups from Austin at the moment, but I have my doubts it will still be that way at SA. There really is no clear front-runner for the SA championship at this point. Everything has been shaken up. Edit: Correction, the TMC results.

Ah, looking at the recaps, both of the performance captions in finals were won on the strength of the individual performances. That would explain my confusion. That and not actually having seen the shows in weeks

The performance captions are pretty much the reverse of what I would have expected based on what I've seen and heard, but it is what it is. I'm sure it was close. Anyway, congrats to FloMo on their first regional win! Does this mean that FM, Hebron, and Marcus are well ahead of the groups from Austin? And not ahead of the groups from Conroe? I think I'm going to pass on SA predictions for the first time ever this year.

Ahhh... so it's a dance team AND a color guard. That explains so, so much to me! I watched a video of Reagan's finals performance from Conroe earlier today. It was very close up, so I could see the "guard" performing, and I was thinking, "Gosh, their movement is really advanced and well-done for a color guard in their scholastic class!" Well, now I know why!

And of course the issue with that is that it's not a BOA contest. It's such a mess. Then again, given how SA judging has been the past two years, I'm not sure any amount of information would help out with predictions.

I got 9 out of 10 finalists right for this regional without ever having seen the shows, so I'm not sure the finalists were really that tough to predict. (Plus, the one I wasn't sure about was the one that didn't make finals.) I am, however, a little bit surprised to see Flower Mound on top. I would not have guessed that based on the video I saw. Then again, it has been a couple weeks. Plus, it was a video! The thing I find most interesting is that Austin's top scorer, Round Rock, didn't crack the top 3 here. Seeing where they end up tonight could help a little bit with predictions for SA, although these are early regionals and so not always very reliable. And we still don't really have much of a way to compare these groups to the top groups at Conroe.

Also, I want to throw something out about color on the marching band field. For years, I've complained about how show designers often seem to completely ignore the fact that they're putting on a show atop a green field. I complain that they seem to choose their color palettes all willy-nilly, without any sort of forethought about what looks good with green. Yet, I'm beginning to think the opposite is just as much of a problem -- using the same colors every year because they look good with the green field. It seems to me that pink and purple are very much in vogue right now, and they look great on the field, but it's getting a little stale. Surely there are other colors that would work. And yes, it was the picture of Marcus at Arlington that reminded me of it. I'm sure they're great, it's just something I've noticed with several groups.

I forgot to mention that I got around to seeing Round Rock. I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents before preliminary competition concludes (when we get to see just how much in the dark we're going to be for San Antonio). I pretty much agree 100% with Knox on the show. Visual and visual GE should be strong throughout the season. But, like Knox, I also think that the beginning of the show is a little bit too drawn out, and I miss the sheer power of the brass of their old shows. That said, I do appreciate the newfound transparency in their ensemble sound. I just wish they could achieve it without sacrificing their power.

I haven't seen enough shows to really make any sort of declaration of what I think is best, but I've definitely noticed a few things I really like. As I've already discussed a couple times, I really like Hebron's ballad. Fun, sultry, whatever you want to call it. As for Reagan, while I've been a bit more reserved with my praise for them overall, I do enjoy the music at the very beginning of their show, because it reminds me of when Reagan was dominant. I also like the visual moment created during the big hit in the ballad, when the guard girls come out in white dresses. That ocean of dresses really popped under the Friday night lights. And others... hmmm... I'm really liking the jazzy music in Leander's unfinished closer. It's just so quirky and different and exciting. I also love The Woodlands' ballad this year. It's very anxious and propulsive, and gloriously, gloriously symphonic. It reminds me of Lawrence Central's ballad in La Rosa, in so far as it also accelerates part-way through and gets your heart racing before it climaxes. I'll throw in Wakeland as well, even though there isn't just one moment that stands out. Rather, I think the entire show stands out. Lots of good things in their future. Outside of Texas, I'll throw in the very beginning of Avon's show. The desolate chords from There Will Be Blood and the woodwind choir create a really eerie, fascinating atmosphere. Is anybody here old enough to have played Final Fantasy VII? Avon's opening reminds me of it for whatever reason.

I also think Bell could have something of a resurgence. Nobody seems to know anything about their show.

I think Carmel's show is really fascinating, and I think we'll be seeing them place as high as always at Nationals. I think Avon is performing their show better right now, but Carmel definitely has the material to top them with a good enough performance. I'll echo my opinion about Avon's music performance and say that I don't think Carmel sounds very good right now (or whenever that video was taken), but I'm sure they'll sound a lot better by nationals. Reagan... I don't know. Don't get me wrong, I think it's an excellent show. In fact, it's probably their best since 2012, when they made national finals for the first time since 2005. But if I'm being honest, the show is a little bit underwhelming, especially considering the groups they beat at Conroe. The music performance in particular is a bit rough. I think the brass sound could be A LOT more blended. As principalagent stated, it's one of those shows where I can absolutely see why somebody would like it, particularly because it is quite sentimental, but it's just not really connecting with me, musically or visually. Well, except for that one moment in the ballad when all the girls in white dresses converge in the middle. That was pretty eye-popping.

Was that true of finals? I've gone to Conroe/Houston most years, and most groups typically have at least some sort of closer on the field. A notable exception is Marcus back in 2011. They stopped after their ballad and still dominated a really stacked contest. Kind of par for the course for a group like Marcus.

How far along were the groups at Conroe? I just listened to the most recent football game recording of TWHS (the game they had to go to instead of finals), and they stopped after their ballad, which is surprising to me, and also frustrating, because I'm still waiting to hear whether or not they're actually doing Pink Floyd music. I want to know whether I started a false rumor. Heh. Also, the quality of the recording was awful, so don't even bother with it. You could barely hear anything, although the battery in the ballad (which was pretty much all I could hear) did not sound very in sync.

Their music is great. The ballad in particular is wonderful, mainly because it's so different than what you're used to hearing. Most bands this year (and every year) will go for something sweetly sentimental during their slow movement, because, let's face it, it appeals to just about everyone, including the judges. (It certainly helps explain Lawrence Central's and Broken Arrow's first national wins over superior, if less sentimental offerings.) What I love about Hebron's ballad this year is that it goes against that trend. It's fun and sexy and unsentimental. It stands out in a really good way. That said, while I think Hebron's music is great this year, the visual needs to be more engaging. I also fear that they're going to have difficulty cleaning their show again, what with all those circles. It would be a shame if what happened to them last year at SA in the visual caption happens again this year at nationals.

Yeah, I saw that. What a shame. I find it hard to believe they were 24th in VGE. Makes me want videos even more!

I'm happy that Leander has seemed to try to ease the transition into the Glass symphony. I think it's working better than it was before. Musically and visually, some of the first parts of the show still lack a bit of clarity, but I won't really worry about that unless the issues are still there when I see it (or don't see it) at San Antonio. I think Leander would also benefit from building up to the climax of their ballad even more and hitting that climax HARD. Right now, it's a little underwhelming. That said, let me say this about the closer: I think musically it's the single most interesting thing I've heard this year. It's strange and jazzy and really quite wonderful. Visually, it's very colorful, though I don't think the colors will make them stand out as much as the music. If the rest of the drill matches the music, and if Leander is able to add a little bit more finesse and clarity to their performance, I don't see why they couldn't win the San Antonio Super Regional based on what I've seen so far.

Did anybody catch Westfield early in the morning? I was hoping for a little bit more of an immediate resurgence after Calima took over, but things do take time.

It's mostly a matter of focus. People tend to focus on what they feel most comfortable with. So, for instance, a percussion specialist might focus on rhythmic accuracy and notice more issues related to that. Frankly, there's also some ignorance involved. I can't tell you the number of times that a percussion specialist has complained to me about how useless a judge's music tapes were because the judge either A.) Mostly ignored the percussion or B.) Didn't have anything remotely insightful to say about it. It probably works both ways. It also helps explain why other contests (like DCI) go out of their way to really separate the different groups in their rubrics. Also, I want to emphasize that I have literally no idea what went on in the particular case I addressed. It was pure speculation.

Will this event be streamed? I sure hope so, because it's looking to be a doozy.

Also, I'm pretty sure the 2006 Reagan show wasn't It Chooses Me, which was their 2007 production. 2006 was Transitions. 2006 was also the last year that the golden triumvirate of Chambers, Nix, and Guidry were at Reagan. I still think that 2006 is their best performed show, although it wasn't their most effective. I think they earned the bronze at UIL state that year, or came close to it. I think there was some tie-breaker between them and Duncanville. Gosh, I've been doing this too long.

A few things to note about The Woodlands' somewhat lower than expected ensemble music score. I feel obligated to address it, because I was the one gushing about their music performance earlier: 1.) The recordings we're going off of are not the best quality, although they aren't bad either. It's possible that even though they sound technically great, the quality of the sound isn't quite up there yet. 2.) The last performance I heard from them (last week) was with a metronome. It's possible (actually, given all the tempo and time signature changes in The Woodlands' music book this year, likely) that the music doesn't click as well without it. 3.) When I listened to that Woodlands recording, I listened to it from the perspective of somebody who's very knowledgeable about wind playing, and a little less so about percussion. Chris Harris, who judged ensemble music performance in prelims, is a big percussion guy, and I have to say, I tend to disagree the most with percussion guys when it comes to music performance judging, probably because I have a different background than them. That's not to say they're wrong, it's just something I've noticed every year I've been involved in this activity. Oh, how I wish there were videos!