Rubisco

I don't think Hebron (or any TX band) would have won, even if they had performed last. I do agree that their music performance gap probably would have been wider, if the judges were given a direct comparison, because BA definitely didn't sound almost as good as Hebron. But again, I don't think it would have made up for the visual package, where I think Avon and BA were clearly superior -- more so than Hebron was superior to them in music. Starting around William Mason, it struck me that the visual was probably going to "do them in" in finals, if placing 3rd in the country can really be called that. I also started thinking about Texas groups in general and their "packages" (heh). Something that Midwesterners really like to talk up is how far behind Texas is in design-related elements (and in color guard, which should be obvious). I don't think this is anywhere near as true as it used to be, but I can acknowledge that it's still probably true that only a couple of Texas groups have put out shows in recent years that were good enough to take home the country's most prestigious marching band trophy. In other words, I think there's room to grow, even at the top.

The semifinals score is amazing, and Hebron was awesome. That said, comparing semis to the other rounds, there are several outliers. I find the scoring that round to be very strange, particularly Harrison's top 6 finish with a score of 94 (!). The judges were very, very generous. I find finals to be the more accurate representation. All the music judges had Hebron in first, but visual performance and GE (and probably their performance time to some extent) cost them the Eagle. Still, you gotta wonder how things would have been different with a more direct comparison.

Hebron wins out! And 4 TX bands in finals, two of them first-timers. Yay! Hebron's semis win seems like a win for exceptional musicality, which is refreshing.

Great times for The Woodlands and Keller, if both groups make finals, but a horrible time for Hebron and a not-so-great time for Round Rock. Usually, I don't think it would be that much of an issue, but the groups are too close in quality this year for me not to be a little worried about it. Especially with Broken Arrow performing last.

Ehhh... I don't think TW is as clean here as they were in 2011. 2006 and 2007, maybe. It is true that since Joni Perez took over the program, the level of cleanliness has jumped. Part of that is tackling shows that are a little bit more manageable under the 8-hour rule, which wouldn't include their 2007 production, Sequenza. I agree that BA is a mixed bag musically, but with a show design like they have, you don't have to be great to win a weaker National contest. You just need to be very good, which they are. Still, they'll probably end up winning the music caption over Hebron, which will drive me crazy. I should just complain ahead of time. Hahaha.

I'm not convinced any of the TX bands would have topped Broken Arrow this year. The show is just so well-made. The performance on the other hand... Well, let's just say that I can think of a number of groups that I think sound better than BA. Both Hebron and The Woodlands sound better to my ears, which isn't entirely surprising, I guess. They should both be in the top 5 based on what I've seen.

Congrats to all the TX groups for making semis! I've got my fingers crossed for tomorrow! I think my hope is that at least 1 TX band cracks the top 3 and 4 of them make finals. Doesn't seem unreasonable based on the prelims performances I watched. This is your moment, guys. Enjoy it!

Another thing to note is that both Marian Catholic and William Mason could push a couple of the TX groups (probably The Woodlands and Round Rock) out of the top half of finals. Marian Catholic was awfully close to Carmel at the Indianapolis regional, and they have a history of cleaning like crazy the weeks leading up to Nationals. 2009 was probably the last year that happened. I saw them at the Indy regional and thought, "Meh." Then I saw them in finals at Nationals, and it was like a COMPLETELY different band. I was stunned. They placed 3rd that year at Nats, and it was one of the most competitive years ever. All 4 of the top TX groups went to Nats that year (LD Bell, Marcus, The Woodlands, and James Bowie.) Also, even though Carmel didn't come anywhere close to Avon at Indy this year, and even though I think their show is far, far weaker than anything I've seen from them in years, I feel pretty strongly that they'll end up doing better than most would predict. They have a tendency to do that for whatever reason. Also, I agree with Brandon when he says that we could probably send Flower Mound up this year, and it wouldn't really make any difference in how the Texas groups would place. I still think it would be a fight for 3rd. I do hope I'm wrong, though!

I'm thinking Round Rock could surge at Nationals again. I was really impressed by what I saw from them in prelims at SA. (I didn't watch finals.) I feel like they took to heart some of the criticisms that people have made about their show this year -- namely the one about how it was lacking their signature power. I got a lot more out of it than I was expecting, and they could even improve on that within the next two weeks. I still think the show is visually exquisite and one of the stronger shows of the year in that regard. I know that Marie C popped them a 19.0 in ensemble visual in prelims, which certainly helped with that 4th place finish. It's nice to see some of my earlier predictions about their visual program come to fruition, even if the finals judges at SA didn't agree as much. I think Hebron should just keep on doing what they're doing. After SA, they have to be the Texas hope at Nationals this year, even though that probably means that they will place 3rd at best, with Avon and Broken Arrow battling it out for first. Still, I'll be shocked (SHOCKED!) if Hebron doesn't walk away with that music caption. At the moment, they sound so much better than any of the other groups going to Nationals this year, and I don't think anyone will catch up. Notes and notes galore, and played magnificently. By the way, Hebron is another group that I think let their hair down a little bit at San Antonio. The energy of the rest of the show seemed to come closer to the energy of the ballad, which is something I've wanted from them all season. The Woodlands' show seems like it will ultimately be too divisive to place in the top 3 at Nationals. Maybe that's the price of being different. In prelims at SA, all 3 GE judges gave them Box 5 scores, as did the ensemble music judge, but in finals, their music scores dropped across the board. Not a single Box 5 score. Their visual scores in finals, on the other hand, were the highest of the Nats group, including a whopping 18.8 in visual GE, similar to the 18.5 they received in prelims. I'm not really sure what to make of this, besides the fact that they're stronger visually than they are musically. One thing to keep in mind is that The Woodlands will definitely sound better relative to the groups at Nationals than they did at San Antonio. Texas bands just sound so much better. My feeling watching Keller in prelims was that the show was very, very close to being National finalist caliber, but maybe not quite there. They were the one group that got away in my SA finals predictions. I had Westlake in finals over them. Still, I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong. They placed 12th in prelims. The fact that they were able to make the cut at SA means they've got a good shot at making the cut at Nats, though don't tell Blue Springs that. I'm not sure I caught Keller Central in prelims. Maybe part of the show. They're doing Harrison's Dream, right? With the compass? I think it's super ambitious of them to tackle Harrison's Dream. I think Marian Catholic's 2002 show casts a very long shadow over just about every group that has tried the piece since then. Anyway, since I missed KC in prelims, I definitely look forward to seeing what they bring to Nats as I watch the GN webcast! Best of luck to all!

Very sad to see Anderson and Dripping Springs drop out. Both are very fine programs.

There are so many things that BOA can trim or do away with between prelims and finals to accommodate all the groups and still finish the contest around the same time. There really isn't any excuse.

Why 6:45? Is there a good excuse for why BOA can't just tack more times onto the end of the day?

Wait, I'm a little bit confused. Are they redrawing all of Saturday's prelims, or just creating a few new spots and drawing for those? I don't see how redrawing all of Saturday could work, especially for those bands whose schedules are based tightly around their original performance times.

If The Woodlands is going to play hopscotch (and they might not), they'll probably do it by Saturday night. Why do I think that? Mainly because of their history. In 2006, they were 5th place at Arlington, away from 1st place LD Bell by 5 points. By SA, they added 17 points to their score and placed 2nd, jumping over Marcus and poor Bowie, whom they beat by a whopping 7+ points in prelims at SA. In 2007, TW's show was such a mess early season that they withdrew from the Pearland regional. They still ended up a comfortable 3rd at San Antonio and 4th at Nationals. In 2009, they placed 3rd in their class and 4th overall in prelims at Pearland, losing out to groups like Brazoswood. They were beaten by SFA by over 3 points in prelims and a little over a point in finals. They ended up beating SFA by over 6 points at San Antonio and placed 3rd overall. In 2010, TW was 5th in finals at The Woodlands Regional (ha), down by 5 points to Cedar Park, who placed 2nd. At San Antonio, they placed 4th, beating everyone who beat them at The Woodlands Regional besides SFA, who did not attend San Antonio. They beat Cedar Park by over a point. In 2011, TW was 4th in prelims and 3rd in finals at Conroe. They were down by almost 4 points to Marcus. At San Antonio, they placed 2nd, beating Marcus by almost 2 points and SFA, who beat them in prelims at Conroe and was close to them in finals, by over 8 points. In 2012 and 2013, TW won their early season regionals and placed 2nd and 1st at SA, respectively. 2014 is really the first year in recent memory that they didn't beat a group that beat them early season, although if they had attended San Antonio in 2008, I seriously doubt they would have topped LD Bell, who was the only group that beat them at Houston. Also, I think people might be surprised by what Bowie and Marcus bring to SA in a couple days. They are both incredibly consistent groups. Bowie, for example, has placed in the top 3 at SA the past four times they've gone, and I think their show this year is better than most of their recent shows.

I'm not going to bother with placement predictions this year. Everything early season was way too close, and comparing scores across contests is an extremely unreliable method of making predictions. The best I can go off of is what I've seen and my own thoughts about the shows. (And to be perfectly honest, nothing has really floored me yet -- the result of my fastidiousness.) Until last year's San Antonio, I could watch an entire finals and rank all the groups either exactly the same as they ended up, or very close to it. I have a feeling that this year will be the same as last year, when I watched the entire finals and had groups near the bottom that somehow placed in the middle-of-the-pack instead. It was all such a mess. Actually, it sort of started in 2013. A couple of days before the contest, I confidently declared, "The reason The Woodlands is going to win on Saturday night is because blah blah blah," and then prelims results rolled around, and I was in shock. I ended up being right about SA finals, but those prelims results were really the first taste of the instability that we got a heavy dose of in 2014 and will almost surely get again this year. In fact, my feeling at this point is that the most shocking thing that could happen on Saturday night is for a band to sweep the captions. That wasn't so shocking just a few years ago. If you want to see where I would group the groups (but not really rank them) before seeing them at SA, you can see all that on the BOA forums thread. It's all based on having seen good mid-season videos. I still haven't really seen mid-season Bowie, and definitely not mid-season FloMo or Marcus, so those groups could end up being the most pleasantly surprising! Anyway, best of luck to all. In the meantime, I'm off to search for a way to record the live-streams on Friday and Saturday. For posterity, you know!

For some of these bands, this upcoming week is the last big push before their competition season ends. It's the culmination of months of hard work. Blood, sweat, and tears, right? To all the kids out there, work hard this final week and have faith in yourselves. You will be rewarded. Remember, YOU'RE THE BEST. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em30XL9c5NQ

How do you edit on mobile? Hahaha. I meant to say Choral WORKS.

Another vote for Color Study! I could still see Leander taking SA this year. They're probably my top pick heading into the contest, which is sort of ironic, because earlier this season I expressed my doubts about whether Choral Studies was the show to beat. I don't know what CTJ looks or sounds like right now, but they were struggling a bit the last time I saw them (a week ago?). I don't want to jinx them or anything, because I know they're probably cleaning like crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised if both The Woodlands and Reagan top them at SA. In fact, I'd be a little surprised (and impressed) if CTJ does top them. I certainly think it's possible. I do have a fairly strong feeling that TW will surge at SA based on what I've seen, as they often do, and will probably medal or come close to it (4th or 5th). It sounds like they've added narration to clarify their show, which could be helpful (or annoying). Reagan should be up there as well.

I was thinking that maybe it was finals performance order, though I would also be surprised to see Richland not make the top 5. Then again, they did miss out on finals at Arlington. I don't know.

According to the contest webpage, the prelims rankings were: Dekaney H.S. Kempner H.S. Seven Lakes H.S. Klein Oak H.S. Richland H.S. Tompkins H.S. Lafayette H.S. Taylor H.S. Stephen F. Austin H.S. Clements H.S. Very, very interesting! Would not have expected SFA to place so low!

Yeah, it sucks performing early, but I don't think a group like Vandegrift has much to worry about. They just need to declare themselves as one of the top 14 bands, which I'm sure they'll do. The main point of prelims is determining who makes it to finals. Determining the class champions and ranking the top bands is secondary to that. For most groups, giving a good enough prelims performance to make it into finals should be their main goal. Besides, you could probably be ranked 10th in prelims at this contest and still have a shot at medaling in finals.

I didn't even realize this, but there's another video of The Woodlands on that person's YouTube account. It's part of their first movement from August, before they had their props, costumes, and flags. They're performing it WAY slower here than they are now, so it's sort of a baby steps performance, but it's worth a watch. Just imagine it faster and with more bells and whistles. Musically, I find this video way more heartening than the more recent one, though there's more parking and playing, and it's slowed down considerably.

Here's a more recent video of Avon. It looks like they're nearly, though not quite done with their show. On the whole, I'd say it's creepy and quirky, but also thoroughly entertaining. I'm not sure I like the voice-over. "Disaaaaster! Man-made Disaaaster!" It's a bit cheesy. Also, I'm wondering how cold it was during this performance. I still think the sound that they're producing is very thin, very brittle. They need to play with calmer, deeper air. Maybe relax their embouchures a bit, too. The sound just isn't very sonorous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvqUMB8CPsE

Re-reading my last post, I feel like I pretty much just quoted my comments on the Avon and Carmel videos: "I don't think they sound very good right now, but they always sound a lot better by Nationals." Heh. Although, in TW's defense, it is just 30 seconds and probably one of the toughest parts of their show. Still, in Texasland, if they don't shape up, 30 seconds of weak music could do them in. Their competitors sound (or will sound) AMAZING.

I wish the video were taken from higher up (and were longer). That's the part of their show that always stands out to me as the weakest part on the audio recordings. It always sounded rickety, like they were playing it on the move and struggling with it a bit, and now I have confirmation of that. I think that those 30 seconds are pretty close to a complete mess musically, though, oddly, not visually. Still, I'm not too worried about it. Sure, they're playing one of the toughest music books this year and doing it while flying, but they've got plenty of time to nail it down before Nationals. Anyway, I'm definitely happy to finally see a little bit of their drill! It looks marvelous, but then, it was done by Vanderkolff (of Blast and Bluecoats fame), so I wouldn't have expected anything less. I'm wondering what the props are for -- the ramp and the colorful globe things in the back. I'm not a big fan of props that just sit there.