meursault

Totally forgot about that one... they just started after the hit where they're near the cube, right?

Fun fact about people still wondering about the timing rules: in 2014, CTJ had a 9ish minute long show with their "Fly to Paradise" preshow. For prelims, they had to skip that section completely, and instead started with their Symphonic Metamorphosis variation thing. In finals, since it's not timed, they were able to field the Fly to Paradise section which added a significant chunk onto the show.

Agree with most of it, but a small counterpoint. It's interesting that you mention Bell as a school that is putting out UIL / "safe" programs, as 10 years ago, they were the band to watch out for at nats. Their 2006 and 2007 shows are known as some of the best designed, most influential high school shows - period - in a lot of circles. Obviously, the waters have changed a bit for them, and I do agree their last few shows have been a bit more traditional / safe, but it's just interesting to look at their history. Coppell on the other hand has been known for the past 20 years to more or less be doing the same thing, thanks to Scott Mason. However, since his passing a few years ago, Wakeland's former director has taken his place, and their show design is rapidly modernizing and changing. It's only been a couple years (2 or 3, not sure), and it remains to be seen if they'll survive the transition and come back to their relative dominance, but I'm not sure you can classify them as putting out UIL-focused, safe programs. Personally, on my list, I have Coppell not advancing in lieu of Waxahachie and Prosper. Both have proven track records of excellence from last year with shows that performed fairly well at BOA and very well at UIL events. I think people are still remembering old Coppell, the purely UIL-focused powerhouse, and don't realize that Coppell is modernizing, and the shows don't fit nearly as neatly into the UIL rubric anymore.

I mean, Leander, Vandy, and Vista Ridge seemed pretty ok in 2016 when they jumped up in classes.

just found this thread and i think it's funny that you can tell Lippman worked at the cadets because of the constant "..." CLASSIC hopkins technique

I think they'll definitely turn some heads at Area. I'll be shocked if they don't advance.

pretty sure it's 5 max at this point, i believe someone got a 2 earlier.

haha we posted the same thing at the exact same time

Keep in mind we could very much have 12 finalists again!

Eh, it's your opinion but look at it a little more analytically - it also seems you're a bit confused on what we mean by depth - someone above me answered it quite well. I can definitely see a case for Area D having a similar depth, but still, you can more or less look at the list and say who's going to make it to state. Same for Area C: the list is pretty static. But there, you can look at the list and not only see who's going to state but also who's going to state finals. With Area B, you have bands like Bell and Duncanville, who have made state and state finals almost every other year for the past decade +. You have bands like Coppell, who have made state and state finals literally every time for the past decade +. You have bands like Keller who are starting to be known as one of the top bands in the nation (and is really the only lock this year, imo). Then, you have bands like Haltom, who are obviously going to be strong despite missing state last time. You have Waxa and Prosper, who just moved up to 6A and have been doing extremely well in 5A and at BOA. And of course, Timber Creek and Keller Central who have had strong showings in BOA the last few years. Right there, I count 9 bands who anyone could easily make a strong argument for making state, with the top few having a strong argument for making state finals. But in this area, they'll be battling for a spot at AREA finals. That's what depth is.

Let's be honest tho - had hebron gone in the last 6, they would have won, no contest. that's gotta be one of the best marching shows in all captions in the past few years. i mean really, go back and watch it - those kids were achieving things no other band came close to attempting.

Some thoughts: Coppell and Keller Central will have a nice battle going. I'm thinking that Keller and FloMo will be very close together, score-wise It'll be nice to see how Duncanville stacks up against Coppell, Keller, and Keller Central what with Area B approaching. Mansfield will turn some heads.

Oh yikes I totally forgot about them! So sorry. They’re definitely in the top 5. Editing my post now.

the issue is that the music ens judge: A: wasn’t in line with any other scoring, by a long shot (which is not problematic, cause visual and GE are obviously different) B: was completely different from the rest of the music scores. This is the issue. Music individual, GE, and ensemble can of course differ, but when you look at the spreads, and the music ensemble scores are VASTLY different from the most part from the other MUSIC scores, there’s something going on. Judges are fallible. It’s a bit foolish to think otherwise.

I think the word you’re looking for is “bullsh**” , pardon my language.

After today, I’m thinking it’ll be something like (in somewhat of an order) 1-3: Keller Bell Prosper 4-8: Timber Creek Waxa (do people call them Waxa? Is it cool if I do that?) coppell Haltom Dville

I’m a bit surprised coppell didn’t advance, but i don’t know who I would trade them out with. Ugh. Such a tough contest!

Area D is the only one that’s somewhat comparable. But with Prosper and Waxahachie moving to 6A, the depth from 1-10 is absurd. Other than the first few spots being locked up, it’s anyone’s game for 4-7 or 8. also I 100% predict prosper to knock out whoever’s at the bottom. There is a very good chance a consistent state FINALIST will not advance this year.

this area is stupidly good lmao no other area comes CLOSE to the depth area B has

Is waxahachie 6a now?

anyone who's been watching the full event have a prediction for finals? thanks!

I’ve seen a pretty good chunk of them perform (everything I could find off youtube / everything I could catch on stream). This is many bands’ first contest of the year, or at least their first high profile contest of the year.

predictions from someone who hasn't been following the season currently as much as years past along w/ some analysis. I was a marcher myself and love and respect all bands and marching members, and I mean no hate <3: 1-3 (No order): Hebron Flower Mound Keller I feel like this right here is pretty obvious. Keller had a great showing at HEB, and Hebron and Flower Mound (although I haven't seen their shows) are not likely to fall out of the top 3, given their extreme success the past few years. 4-9 (No Order): Cedar Park Prosper Waxahachie Wakeland Timber Creek Union This is where it starts to get a little extremely tricky. Don't know if I really have to justify Cedar Park being in this range. Easily a mid-finals lock, although their placement and being 3 points behind James Bowie is a bit troublesome. Didn't catch their performance - did they have a rough run or is their show just in its early stages of development? Either way - be on the lookout for them. Prosper also had a great showing at HEB. They were a semi-finalist at GNats - which, given the depth of every competition last year, isn't something to ignore anymore. I could see them dropping quite a lot if they don't add more in, as those penalties will really add up, but I don't see them out of finals. Waxahachie has been such a sleeper the past few years - BOA Regional Finals, doing great at other competitions... I honestly can't imagine them out of this range. Wakeland as well - they lost a little momentum in 2016, but came back with a solid show and a solid BOA DFW placement last year. Timber Creek. Another sleeper! Don't know why they keep getting discounted. They beat Coppell by a very solid margin at BOA Midland, which is the best head-to-head we have between any of the bands on the list (as far as I can tell) due to it being BOA. They did great last year, and I will be shocked if they don't make it in this range at finals - admittedly, I think they'll tend more toward the bottom. Also, their early performance time could screw them. It happens every. year. Union I'm admittedly the most unfamiliar with. Generally, BOA competitions aren't too favorable for people outside their home turf, so to speak. And travelling is hard on kids! And, from what I gather, their show this year is a bit weaker than years past. Obviously they're a big name in Oklahoma and Grand Nats, and it pains to put them low for me, but again: I know very little about them. Also again: i'm dumb and predictions are all but meaningless anyways (prove me wrong). 10: LD Bell Keller Central Coppell This is probably the hardest tier to look at right now - the bottom bubble. Three solid programs that all have multiple finalist experience, but just aren't at the level as the others as far as I can tell. LD Bell has been up and down the past few years. We all know what happened 2014. Then they seemed to rebound with a beautiful show 2015. Then... it's been kinda stagnant. They usually do pretty well early season, but from what I've seen / heard about this show, it could go either way. I don't see them breaking into the higher tiers at this point, but I'm just a dummy with a computer. Keller Central has been a solid contender at BOA regionals for the past few years. I'm personally not a fan of their shows, but you can't deny that they have grabbed modern show design and really, really run with it. BOA really likes that - and it helps that they perform the crap out of their shows. Same thing as Bell - they could break into a higher spot, but I personally don't see it happening. Coppell. They're one of the few bands where the director posts almost every performance they have. I fully expected them to up Timber Creek at Midland, I'm not gonna lie. I loved their 2016 show and was shocked when it scored so low at BOA. I loved their 2017 show even more and was equally shocked when it scored so low. I'm not in love with this show. It's much, much cleaner than years past so early, but the design concept for me is NOT pushing through. They always add a ton in later on, but it's gonna hurt them if they don't find their momentum early this year. I could see them squeaking by in the last two spots at finals, but honestly, this regional is, as always, insanely, absurdly, stacked. The depth in Texas is like no else. Good luck to any and all performers reading this! Go kill it on Saturday and have a blast.

Making haltom look really classy on an internet forum, nice way to represent your band i guess...

HOLY COW mellos!!! sounding good timber creek.