principalagent

It’s probably the most even and fair way to do it. In an Area with say 36 bands that only advances 19 to Area, should bands 4 through 7 have to pay for the other 17 bands’ problems? The geography of the state doesn’t lend itself super well to having areas of all equal size and/or caliber which makes it difficult to just have each area send a set amount. This is the most well rounded option. It sucks for the first band out sometimes, but this best guarantees that a good amount of bands from each part of the state make it to the big show. Remember, the kind of harsh reality is that state marching contest is about 1) crowning a champion and 2) showcasing the best of the state, from *throughout* the state. It, unfortunately, is not about grabbing the 30-40 best bands and having them duke it out. I can only think of one time in the last ten years that a 5A/6A champion or medalist were the last to advance from their area. Frankly, that almost proves that you don’t have to take every great band to advance cause 1, further allowing you to prioritize cause 2. Area B is experiencing the implications of that strain right now.

The acoustics of AT&T are dramatically different than the Alamodome.

It does not. Areas have independent determinations of how many bands they send to state based on the number of bands that qualify for the Area competition.

The slight bright side is that there’s a decent chance that a 4th place band could slide in on judge’s preference. Specifically, two 3rd place votes in music and a 3rd place vote in marching will move a band onto state anyway. But let’s hope that doesn’t have to be a formulation we need to hope for.

Rouse is great and probably will be performing in Exhibition, but I don't think they're going to hop over Timber Creek, Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge and Round Rock just yet.

If it helps, I heard the same.

I’m not surprised. One band is on the rise, the other is figuring things out and also didn’t get to perform in ideal circumstances (props, etc).

My apologies! 7 and 7, as normal. Which... is interesting considering the almost inevitable inconsistencies between panels.

First 5 from each panel, then next 4 overall.

I think Panel 2 has a deeper bench overall by about 5 or so bands. All it would take is a scoring irregularity that favors Panel 1 to have a band you couldn't imagine missing finals, in fact missing finals.

Yikes Panel 2. Panel 1 has a pretty locked up top 4 and an open space that I assume goes to Cedar Park, LD Bell or Timber Creek, with somewhat outside shots of Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge and Round Rock. Panel 2 has Vandegrift, Bowie, Marcus, TWHS, Claudia Taylor Johnson, Flower Mound, Vista Ridge, and Prosper. I'm gonna assume the majority of the Next 4 comes from Panel 2.

The problem is every band is insane at that level. Some unfortunately will be left out. Not saying it’s Hendrickson, but some band(s) around that level is gonna sit Saturday night out.

Fully agreed! I love it when bands form identities.

C, D, and H are notably better in the top 3ish. B has more depth throughout the top 15ish than probably every other area and it's not particularly close on that front. B leaves out more objectively good bands than any other area at the end of the day.

No semi-finals, but 14 go to finals.

This is new for the Super Regionals and GN this year, but each band competes within panels which switch off between blocks. The top five from each panel advance, along with the next four highest scoring bands regardless of panel.

Ha! Thankfully neither BOA nor UIL are secretive and I do not have to figure 40 or so placeholder names like I do for Indiana bands!

I would actually say this is advantageous. They aren't going to be factored into the calculus on who gets put on what day to make it "even". They, independently, will be a driver on how competitive a day would be, along with other bands having great years like Bell, Timber Creek, Oak Ridge, etc, that aren't deciding the division of panels. If they get put in a hard block, I'm convinced they will make it in through the Next 4. Even then, they might still place in the top 5. If they get put in an easier block, then I'm sure they'll in fact take a Top 5 slot to advance. I wouldn't say this for every bubble band. (I don't even consider Vista Ridge a bubble band this year, for what it's worth.) However, for Vista Ridge, you just gotta trust the process here. They're too good to be left out.

Your edit is spot on, and there are a couple of reasons why (it isn't quite a contradiction). One, the Top 30 poll consists of a formula. Somewhere in the area of 10-20 contributors are invited to submit polls. Those polls are then averaged and weighted against the polls of recent weeks. Then, they're further hedged against actual contest results. So numerous factors contribute to these polls, and they aren't always thoughtful about growth potential or strength of competition or recency of major competitions. Therefore, the Top 30 is an estimate of where a semi-mechanical formula believes bands across the nation are in a relatively point in time fashion. I'm a ranking contributor and I straight up don't change my results based on hearsay or even based on videos. I almost strictly wait for (major) competitions. Others polled, using different criteria and rationale, change their polls quite wildly and rapidly based on videos and local competitions. I don't think either way is wrong, and it largely balances out. Two, the articles and predictions are written independently of the Top 30. A ranking contributor who has a more intimate knowledge of the bands from their own marching and observing (and sometimes staffing) history does a write-up by themselves. These are more likely to incorporate their own opinions, but also hedge their personal predictions with what is most likely. Additionally, Jeremiah gets final say on rankings and can switch predictions at his discretion. These predictions, being the control of one person, can think much more actively about growth trajectories, show developments, etc. For example, the poll doesn't always account for the fact that The Woodlands comes out of the gate slowly and peaks late and LD Bell starts off strong but doesn't grow so much toward the season's end. The predictions one makes in the article thinks a lot more intentionally about this. To look at this in action, you can look at the rankings versus predictions for Austin, Bedford, San Antonio or St. Louis last year, etc to see how this works out.

I can tell you for a fact the HornRank Top 30 and the contest predictions that they'll publish in a couple weeks will be dramatically different from each other. And realistically, what actually will happen will diverge from both!

Also could challenge the top 5 of that panel! Oversight on my part.

Should be this week! Then we can have so much fun analyzing the strength of the blocks.

I found it interesting that there was a 15 minute break in finals. If it were not for that break, Lake Travis would have been scored.

I'm personally rooting for them to come in 13th or 14th. I want some new faces and their show is FANTASTIC.

When was Flower Mound 32nd?