2017 BOA San Antonio Super Regionals Predictions

[whitewing09]

I think I'll do this in Cohorts: 

 

1st and 2nd: 

 

Flower Mound:  They've mastered MP, VP, and MGE. I'm not quite willing to say they're to par with the Indy bands in visual GE. Though, unless VGE just hates the sh*t out of their visual package, I think it will be difficult for them to lose if they can replicate last year's quality.

 

Avon: They will probably win all the visual judge. They're obviously a very good band in all regards. I'm not convinced they would have beat FloMo in Music last year and I'm not sure they will this year.

 

3rd - 6th:

 

TWHS: They really bounced back last year from the previous two years. I think they've been experimenting on what exactly makes them tick and they're getting closer to finding it. With this year being a nats year I can't imagine them toning down.

 

Reagan: They were amazing in 2015, but their show in 2016 seemed like a throw back to 2014. It ended up being a good show (did well at UIL), but too safe to make the splash they are capable of (as proved by 2015). Hopefully, they start taking bigger risks wrt to the capabilities of their players rather than the risk of having a singer dominating the show.

 

CTJ: I see them being as high as three. I've been here for them since Bloom (Wow I'm old), so I may be biased. I think the issue last year was that their show was just too ambitious. I can't imagine any Texas group being able to clean it, given time constraints. I'm hoping this year they tone it down just a bit and produce the quality show that they put out in 2014. 

 

(If anything, Reagan and CTJ would be unstoppable if they met each other in the middle with respects to the cleanliness/difficulty trade off.)

 

Leander: They're hot and getting hotter. Their shows are unique, well-performed, and well-designed.

 

7th-10th

 

Hebron: Their show last year was a lot more UIL last year, but they've proven that they can be dangerous in the BOA scene.

 

Cedar Park: It's weird to have them so low because they edged out Leander last year, but this is a very high quality cohort of bands. They'll be on their best for UIL the following week. 

 

Vandegrift: Like the other Austin-LISD this band is growing fast. Their music is there; they just need a better visual book. Last year was a good step forward.

 

Marcus: They're a great band. Their shows may have gotten a little stale, so hopefully they start to mix it up. They play the long game, so I don't expect them to score as high here as at nationals. 

 

11th -14th 

 

Round Rock: I have full confidence that they'll do better at Nationals than BOA SA. They're also a band that plays the long game. Their show was very UIL last year, but I'm expecting to see the same level of design and performance as 2015.

 

Churchill: Last year seemed to be a revitalization for them. Their show design was great. They code work a little on execution, but I think they'll continue the impetus from last year.

 

Hendrickson: They've really been growing. They had a fun show that was in SA finals last year (and deserved to be in UIL finals imo). I think they'll keep up the momentum.

 

Keller: I absolutely loved their show last year and was surprised that they scored so low in performance metrics given their high UIL scores. I think they're a safe bet for finals. Yet another band that is growing.

 

 

Bubble:

 

Bowie: Last year, I think their main issue was show design. Their opener was great, but the show went flat as it went on.. I don't think they down and out for the count, but they have some mean competition.
 

Bell: They're a good band, but they just don't have that same magic to their shows. They've seemed to stay consistent in execution, but there are just too many bands growing and surpassing them.

 

Cedar Ridge: Unfortunately, they aren't what they used to be under Calima, but they'll stay in the bubble and have a chance to make finals if the stars align.

 

Prosper: This band is really growing and it may be their year! A trip to nationals is great inspiration for stepping up one's game.

 

 

 

[18Saxes]

1. Avon - clearly the staff has confidence that this will be an amazing year with as much traveling that they're doing this year. Last year they were very "young" and yet tied for 1st at nationals. This group may not get as much practice on Saturdays, but if this group works hard enough, that won't be a problem. Also their visual program is consistently amazing every year so that should work to their benefit against Texas who is more into the music aspect.

 

2. Flower Mound - to say I loved their show last year is an understatement. I LOVE this group and what they accomplished last year, but finding a show to follow last year's will be very hard. If they can, I see them more than able to pass Avon, on everything but visual. Which visual could be the reason they end 2nd.

 

3. The Woodlands - last year ended very well for them at SA. With the right program and talent, they could definitely turn some heads.

 

4. Hebron - yes, the program last year wasn't the best Hebron has done, but they were able to jump from 6th to 2nd between 2012 and 2013. I love Hebron's musicality and it could get them far.

 

5. Vandy - this year's show sounds to have amazing potential. I would not be surprised to see them move up on the placement ladder.

 

6. Leander - as much as I loved the past few year's programs, this years doesn't do it for me. I'm excited to see where they end up, and they could be as high as 2nd or 3rd, but these are just my predictions

 

7. Marcus - last year was a good show from them, just not executed as well as others higher than them. it's hard to put them this low, but we'll see what happens through the season.

 

8. CTJ - I hope they place higher, but last year's 9th at nationals doesn't give me super positive thoughts about them getting higher.

 

9. Cedar Park - still rather low even after 5th at nationals last year. Could easily move up with the right conditions.

 

10. Reagan - the singing doesn't do it for me. Neither did the show last year. Not for me.

 

11 - 14 I don't really follow the rest of the bands that closely, so I'm not gonna try to place them. However Churchill should easily be in finals.

What do you mean by Avon last year being "very young"? You realize that in 2008, 2009, and 2010, they won Grand Nationals?

 

On another note, I can see Avon sweeping all captions at this regional, I do feel many are underestimating how amazing that group is.

[BOA_DCI]

He meant that the age demographic for Avon was mostly younger kids probably around 14-16 was the majority of the band.

[whitewing09]

What do you mean by Avon last year being "very young"? You realize that in 2008, 2009, and 2010, they won Grand Nationals?

 

On another note, I can see Avon sweeping all captions at this regional, I do feel many are underestimating how amazing that group is.

 

 

They could definitely win the competition. If they sweep all captions I'd almost be as shocked as I was when they lost nationals last year. They're very talented musically, but so are the Dallas LISD schools. BOA SA will be Hebron's terminal competition for the season, so you know they'll rise up for the occasion. FloMo and Marcus *may* save their best for nats. Who knows maybe even one of the Austin LISD schools will pick up the music caption.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Such as Leander

[jmartin1056]

What do you mean by Avon last year being "very young"? You realize that in 2008, 2009, and 2010, they won Grand Nationals?

 

On another note, I can see Avon sweeping all captions at this regional, I do feel many are underestimating how amazing that group is.

I know Avon is an amazing program, I've been following them since 05, but I meant age wise they were young. As the members age, they improve, so they SHOULD be even better than last year

[zururoua]

I really hope Avon doesn't sweep captions. They're really good but my Texas pride is too strong

[snares]

It's gonna be real hard for Avon to take Music down here. With Hebron and Flomo and occaisionally some of those southern Austin/Houston bands, that's a pretty hard thing for them to do. No doubt they can do it but I see them more as a Visual/GE powerhouse. They proved they can win it but with how darn good some of the cats are down here, it'll be hard. A lot of it has to do with the shows, obviously if Avon has a dud of a show that'll make taking captions easier for everyone else, as I honestly don't think that BOA judges the best band but rather the best show combined with best band. I don't know who will be the band to jump up and join the top this year as it seems to change every year. I'm feeling CTJ, maybe Reagan will jump again. But who knows. I don't think Hebron or Marcus will make a big run for BOA as they both have pride in the types of shows they do (marching concert band essentially). But like I said, I haven't seen any shows or heard anything about anyone, so only time will tell.

[BandG33k73]

It may not be as hard as you think. You can't underestimate a Harloff hornline, and they won music at grand nationals last year as well.

[MadisonBandMan1]

It may not be as hard as you think. You can't underestimate a Harloff hornline, and they won music at grand nationals last year as well.

But flomo didn't go last year.

[BandG33k73]

I just don't think we can underestimate it. It's BOA, and there are politics, but Avon has been the most consistently dominant band in the country over the past few years. I'm a Texas guy and want one of our bands to win but I think it's a very real possibility they could win music and win the competition.

[MadisonBandMan1]

You are right about that but something amazing always happens in Texas. Just a few years ago flomo didn't even make finals at SA. Look at where they are now, and Leander popped into 3rd out of nowhere last year.

[MadisonBandMan1]

I mean I know they are a consists finals band, Leander, but that was surprising.

[LeanderMomma]

I don't think Avon will fare so well here. I'd say sixth or seventh.

Ohhh I highly doubt that. Top 3 for sure.

[BOA_DCI]

Avon has consistently beaten Texas bands in music at Grand Nationals (besides LD Bell 2007, The Woodlands 2013, and Hebron 2015) I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them from winning the music caption.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Ohhh I highly doubt that. Top 3 for sure.

Yeah I have come to realize that, although I still don't think they are going Tobin here. GN. . . Maybe.

[MadisonBandMan1]

To win* sometime I hate smartphones:(

[BandG33k73]

 

Yeah I have come to realize that, although I still don't think they are going Tobin here. GN. . . Maybe.

honestly, right now I think they will because they've been more consistent than any other group in the country over the last 10 years.

[zururoua]

Consistency is good, but it doesn't mean that a group having an unusually good year can't sneak their way into a medal, caption, or win.

 

If Avon pulls an entertaining show (last year's was not and it cost them to Carmel who had a much more interesting show) they will definitely be likely to win, but against every strong Texas group they're going to have to be musically very strong, and that means woodwinds too. A Harloff hornline can win brass in DCI, but in BOA you have to have good woodwinds too.

 

Speaking of consistency, I'm wondering if CTJ will keep up their top 5 streak this year (it'd be the 6th or 7th time iirc). I could definitely see a lot of groups overtaking them if they're having a weaker year.

 

Obviously nothing big has happened yet, but I'm not the biggest fan of Leander's show this year based on what we've seen so far, I prefer Vandegrift at the moment and could see them winning Austin again.

 

I'd be very surprised if Avon and Flomo aren't in top 3, and I can see a LOT of groups taking that other spot depending on what happens this year.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Yeah I think vandy has something up their sleeves. I have a feeling they are going to sneak up on us this year with an amazing show, judging from the preview.

[jmartin1056]

Avon has really good woodwinds too. Just a great overall program. Also compared to nationals, SA can have some... Varying results (Cedar Park in 9th in SA to 5th at nats beating #3 at SA Leander) so who's to say that the winner at SA will be the same at Nationals? I think it'll all come down to who has the better run come Nationals. But it also seems that Texas bands who win SA and decide to go the year or 2 after they win never do as well as it seems they would've at the top of their game...

[18Saxes]

1. Avon

 

2. Flower Mound

 

3. The Woodlands

4. Hebron

5. Marcus

6. Vandegrift

7. Leander

 

8. Cedar Park

9. CTJ

10. Ronald Reagan

11. Round Rock

12. Churchill

13. Hendrickson

14. Keller

Music: Flower Mound

Visual: Avon

General Effect: Avon

 

I just have a lot of confidence in Avon.

[whitewing09]

Avon has consistently beaten Texas bands in music at Grand Nationals (besides LD Bell 2007, The Woodlands 2013, and Hebron 2015) I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them from winning the music caption.

 

Don't forget Marcus 2009 (along with a tie in music 2013).

 

It's not to say that Avon isn't a musical band. They most definitely are, but they've also seldom gone up against the best Texas band of the year, let alone a whole field of Texas' best. Will they do exceedingly well? Probably. Will they sweep.. doubtful, but maybe.

[MadisonBandMan1]

1. Avon

 

2. Flower Mound

 

3. The Woodlands

 

4. Hebron

 

5. Marcus

 

6. Vandegrift

 

7. Leander

 

8. Cedar Park

 

9. CTJ

 

10. Ronald Reagan

 

11. Round Rock

 

12. Churchill

 

13. Hendrickson

 

14. Keller

 

 

Music: Flower Mound

 

Visual: Avon

 

General Effect: Avon

 

I just have a lot of confidence in Avon.

I like that list, but I would put Bowie in front of Keller.

[18Saxes]

I like that list, but I would put Bowie in front of Keller.

Thinking about it more now, yes I agree with that. Bowie did really well last year for the situation they were going through. Hoping that push to excel stays with the band again this year and that they grow.