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What are the odds that all of the advancing bands from Area D make finals at state? I know that sounds like a strech, but if you look at all of the state hopefuls from there they all have proved themselves worthy this year.

 

Wouldn't surprise me at all, but I'm afraid I don't really follow non-5A schools in Texas as much as I'd like.

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What are the odds that all of the advancing bands from Area D make finals at state? I know that sounds like a strech, but if you look at all of the state hopefuls from there they all have proved themselves worthy this year.

 

I would say that those odds are pretty are actually quite high. All biases aside, I would be surprised to NOT see all the Area D advancers in state finals. If you look at the past few 4A states...in '07, all 4 bands from Area D made finals. In '09, a relatively down year for Area D, 3 out of 4 bands made finals. Dripping Springs, the defending state champ, might be the fourth best band in this area. Hays, the 10th place band at state last time around, is probably the 7th-8th place band in this area.

 

I'm more curious to see if Area D sweeps the medals (a possibility).

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What are the odds that all of the advancing bands from Area D make finals at state? I know that sounds like a strech, but if you look at all of the state hopefuls from there they all have proved themselves worthy this year.

 

In 2007, all 4 bands from Area D made State Finals:

Connally 2nd

Hendrickson 5th

Vista Ridge 7th

Dripping Springs 8th

 

In 2009, 3 of the 4 made State Finals:

Dripping Springs 1st

Hendrickson 5th

Hays 10th

LBJ 12th

 

With the results of the contests thus far, Area D is going to be killer. Vandegrift was the alternate from Area D in 2009, and I believe that was the first year the school was open, marching few kids and those kids being freshman or sophomores.

 

I cannot wait to see how this contest goes. Usually the 4 who qualify are the 4 who should, but they aren't necessarily in the right order. I'm curious to see how all the schools in finals rank this year.

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Area B will once again be a blood bath.

 

8 bands in that area have all competed in state before:

 

Newman Smith

Southwest

Wakeland

Birdville

Centennial

The Colony

Sherman

Aledo

 

You have the consistent alternates:

Joshua

Timberview

 

The former top performing 5A bands that are now 4A:

Creekview

Summit

 

And the bands that are consistent top 15 placers:

Liberty

Frisco

McKinney

McKinney North

Heritage

 

The way scores have turned out so far, I think your top 4 are going to be:

Centennial

The Colony

Aledo

Newman Smith

 

I can also see Area B sending 5, POSSIBLY 6 to state (in 09, they only needed 2 more bands at area to send 5, and there are at least 3 new schools in Area B). If there's 5 bands, I'd throw the extra spot to Either Summit or Creekview. 6th would go to one of those two.

 

Either way, there are FANTASTIC bands in area B that unfortunately won't even make finals. =[

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3rd school will probably be Clear Falls (in my opinion) should a third school make it

 

Clear Falls is a pretty safe bet for the potential 3rd State slot in F. Despite the fact that they got a 2 at UIL last year, they're having a great year this year. They did very well at Friendswood, placing behind Dawson and Dripping Springs in their division and missing finals by only 1 place. Clear Falls will likely make a 1 this year, which would make F's ability to reach 15 bands more possible (15 bands made it in 2007 but only 13 in '09). Magnolia West is a newer school that has been improving each year, and could possibly get a 1 as well after getting a 1-2-2 last go round.

 

I say Clear Falls is a safe bet. However I'm also willing to put Huntsville in the mix (not to mention Galena Park, since they made the cut last go-round). Here's my math: Dobie beat Clear SPRINGS at SHSU by a couple of places last year (if you look at the scores it's not by much though). Clear Springs placed 12th at Friendswood this year right behind the aforementioned Clear Falls (11th). At Galena Park this year, Huntsville placed right behind Dobie (again only a small margin separated them). I'm not saying this proves Huntsville can beat Clear Falls, I'm just saying it puts them in the same league of ability to where CF isn't necessarily a shoe-in. Galena Park's judge scores at their festival were also right behind Huntsville's.

 

It's easy to be biased about Huntsville though, since I currently work with them, but I'm seeing things happen here. Huntsville is military style though (like several of the 4A Area F bands are) so if the judges are biased at all against military (and they're out there....saying judges aren't biased towards military is a hard sell), you can pretty much count Clear Falls in for that 3rd spot.

 

Btw, all these "Clear" schools are confusing (Clear Creek, Clear Falls, Clear Brook, Clear Lake, Clear Springs)...They're all in the same district too. It reminds me of the Cypress-Fairbanks district (Cy Fair, Cy Creek, Cy Springs, Cy Falls, Cy Lakes, Cy Ridge, Cy Ranch, Cy Woods).

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Area C should send at least two, if its two then id say Poteet and Waxahachie will advance

 

If they send three then ill add forney in, personally i would love it if Area C sent all three of these bands, seeing as they all made finals last state year

 

Seeing Areas like Area C where maybe only 2-3 bands will advance, and then looking at areas like B and D makes me kind of frustrated.

 

Honestly, there are so many excellent bands in both of those areas that are going to get the short end of the stick simply because they are in a block of bands that are extremely consistent with each other. I think UIL would be wise to divide both Area B and D apart and make either 2 new Areas, or combine the excess with another area so that some of the bands in Area's B and D will actually be able to compete at the state level.

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Area C should send at least two, if its two then id say Poteet and Waxahachie will advance

 

 

I would bet 3 advance from C but that all depends on the Dallas, Tyler, and Northeast Texas regions. If Area C only sends 2 I feel sorry for the kids who get left out... I won't go as far on the forum to guess the schools but it will be a tight race for the 2 or 3 places.

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I would bet 3 advance from C but that all depends on the Dallas, Tyler, and Northeast Texas regions. If Area C only sends 2 I feel sorry for the kids who get left out... I won't go as far on the forum to guess the schools but it will be a tight race for the 2 or 3 places.

 

Based on contests so far, I'd say that it's going to be a tight race for the 1, 2, and 3 spots. I haven't heard anything about Heath, but I wouldn't count them out, either.

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Based on contests so far, I'd say that it's going to be a tight race for the 1, 2, and 3 spots. I haven't heard anything about Heath, but I wouldn't count them out, either.

 

 

Last time I saw Heath they needed to clean their music and drill, which I'm sure they have and will be ready for area saturday. They had the same issues last state cycle and in finals went from 6th to 4th. We perform early for region and have to take the students back so I'll miss the 4A region but will be there for 3A/5A.

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Based on contests so far, I'd say that it's going to be a tight race for the 1, 2, and 3 spots. I haven't heard anything about Heath, but I wouldn't count them out, either.

 

This is a bit off topic but I remember the days when area C was dominated by Poteet, Wylie, Sherman, Hebron and Sachse.... A lot has changed. =/

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This is a bit off topic but I remember the days when area C was dominated by Poteet, Wylie, Sherman, Hebron and Sachse.... A lot has changed. =/

 

2003 was the last time they were all in the same area and class I believe... Go back more and it was Poteet and Coppell, and before that Poteet and Allen but thats real old. And yes once upon a time Allen use to be in class 4A

Edited by TxRaider13
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Area A 4A I see going down like this :

 

1 - 4) Boswell, Frenship, Azle, Del Valle

5 - 10) Liberty, Canyon, Randall, Springtown, Ryan, Plainview

11 - 14) Riverside, Timber Creek, Brewer, Rider

 

The rest I don't know, I'm pretty sure those top 4 are a slide in for state, but who knows, a few of those 5 to 10 ones could slip in.

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Area A 4A I see going down like this :

 

1 - 4) Boswell, Frenship, Azle, Del Valle

5 - 10) Liberty, Canyon, Randall, Springtown, Ryan, Plainview

11 - 14) Riverside, Timber Creek, Brewer, Rider

 

The rest I don't know, I'm pretty sure those top 4 are a slide in for state, but who knows, a few of those 5 to 10 ones could slip in.

 

I know which 4 I want to advance from Area A, but I need two bands according to your ranks to jump up..And hey you never know, anything can happen

Edited by TxRaider13
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I know which 4 I want to advance from Area A, but I need two bands according to your ranks to jump up..And hey you never know, anything can happen

 

I know those top 4 aren't a lock necessarily, but if someone was wanting to break in, they'd have to be pretty good. I know which 4 I'd like to advance as well, but you gotta be realistic unfortunately.

 

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Clear Falls is a pretty safe bet for the potential 3rd State slot in F. Despite the fact that they got a 2 at UIL last year, they're having a great year this year. They did very well at Friendswood, placing behind Dawson and Dripping Springs in their division and missing finals by only 1 place. Clear Falls will likely make a 1 this year, which would make F's ability to reach 15 bands more possible (15 bands made it in 2007 but only 13 in '09). Magnolia West is a newer school that has been improving each year, and could possibly get a 1 as well after getting a 1-2-2 last go round.

 

I say Clear Falls is a safe bet. However I'm also willing to put Huntsville in the mix (not to mention Galena Park, since they made the cut last go-round). Here's my math: Dobie beat Clear SPRINGS at SHSU by a couple of places last year (if you look at the scores it's not by much though). Clear Springs placed 12th at Friendswood this year right behind the aforementioned Clear Falls (11th). At Galena Park this year, Huntsville placed right behind Dobie (again only a small margin separated them). I'm not saying this proves Huntsville can beat Clear Falls, I'm just saying it puts them in the same league of ability to where CF isn't necessarily a shoe-in. Galena Park's judge scores at their festival were also right behind Huntsville's.

 

It's easy to be biased about Huntsville though, since I currently work with them, but I'm seeing things happen here. Huntsville is military style though (like several of the 4A Area F bands are) so if the judges are biased at all against military (and they're out there....saying judges aren't biased towards military is a hard sell), you can pretty much count Clear Falls in for that 3rd spot.

 

Btw, all these "Clear" schools are confusing (Clear Creek, Clear Falls, Clear Brook, Clear Lake, Clear Springs)...They're all in the same district too. It reminds me of the Cypress-Fairbanks district (Cy Fair, Cy Creek, Cy Springs, Cy Falls, Cy Lakes, Cy Ridge, Cy Ranch, Cy Woods).

 

From what I have heard (from band directors), there will very likely only be two spots at state from Area F and no finals competition.

Edited by Thomas
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Its official, Area F will only have 12 bands competing and only 2 to State. Good Luck everyone who is attending!

 

 

I would like to see a finals with all 12 bands, or even the top 7.. Let them March

 

Looks like Area C is going to just get enough bands to allow for 3 to advance to state.....I know there is another region to hold their contest next week that feeds this area but I don't think they will send enough to allow for 4 to advance

Edited by TxRaider13
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