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Posted
  On 7/15/2025 at 5:21 AM, FormerWildcat said:

My Way Too Early Predictions (Not to be taken as a perfect model in any sense of the word):

1. Lone Star [97.5% Finals, 95% State, 60% Win]

2. Wakeland [97.5% Finals, 90% State, 20% Win]

3. Argyle [90% Finals, 65% State, 10% Win]

4. McKinney North [85% Finals, 60% State, 5% Win]

Remaining Field: 5% Win

5. Lebanon Trail [75% Finals, 30% State]

6. Reedy [75% Finals, 25% State]

7. Walnut Grove [60% Finals, 10% State]

8. Heritage [60% Finals, 10% State]

9. Liberty [55% Finals, 5% State]

10. Memorial [50% Finals, 5% State]

11. Emerson [45% Finals, 2.5% State]

12. Melissa [40% Finals, 2.5% State]

13. The Colony [40% Finals, 2.5% State]

Remaining Field: 2.5% State

14. Independence [25% Finals]

15. Frisco [25% Finals]

16. Anna [20% Finals]

17. Centennial [20% Finals]

18. Ryan [10% Finals]

19. Denton [10% Finals]

20. Sherman [5% Finals]

21. Denison [5% Finals]

That statement seems highly inflammatory. The overwhelming support he has received in response to his apparent resignation definitely seems to contradict you. When most of the surrounding districts produce well-below average or flat-out nonexistent band programs, simply making area finals is an impressive feat. Although the Duncanville program is not at its absolute peak, it is still consistently competitive with bands that have far greater resources, & Mr. Teal deserves credit for at least maintaining a standard of excellence during his tenure. I will say I put Memorial a bit low just because I was not that impressed with their finals performance last year & the tragedy that happened at the track meet a few months ago could put a damper on the school in general.

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What about lovejoy 😞😂

Posted
  On 7/15/2025 at 5:21 AM, FormerWildcat said:

My Way Too Early Predictions (Not to be taken as a perfect model in any sense of the word):

1. Lone Star [97.5% Finals, 95% State, 60% Win]

2. Wakeland [97.5% Finals, 90% State, 20% Win]

3. Argyle [90% Finals, 65% State, 10% Win]

4. McKinney North [85% Finals, 60% State, 5% Win]

Remaining Field: 5% Win

5. Lebanon Trail [75% Finals, 30% State]

6. Reedy [70% Finals, 25% State]

7. Walnut Grove [60% Finals, 10% State]

8. Heritage [60% Finals, 10% State]

9. Liberty [55% Finals, 5% State]

10. Memorial [45% Finals, 2.5% State]

11. Emerson [45% Finals, 2.5% State]

12. Melissa [35% Finals, 2.5% State]

13. The Colony [35% Finals, 2.5% State]

14. Lovejoy [30% Finals, 2.5% State]

Remaining Field: 2.5% State

14. Independence [25% Finals]

15. Frisco [25% Finals]

16. Anna [20% Finals]

17. Centennial [20% Finals]

18. Ryan [10% Finals]

19. Denton [10% Finals]

20. Sherman [5% Finals]

21. Denison [5% Finals]

That statement seems highly inflammatory. The overwhelming support he has received in response to his apparent resignation definitely seems to contradict you. When most of the surrounding districts produce well-below average or flat-out nonexistent band programs, simply making area finals is an impressive feat. Although the Duncanville program is not at its absolute peak, it is still consistently competitive with bands that have far greater resources, & Mr. Teal deserves credit for at least maintaining a standard of excellence during his tenure. I will say I put Memorial a bit low just because I was not that impressed with their finals performance last year & the tragedy that happened at the track meet a few months ago could put a damper on the school in general.

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I feel like Wakeland should have a way higher chance of winning than 20% considering their winning streak for this area

Posted

I personally don’t believe wakeland will slip from first. It feels like this theory comes up every year for this area that they will eventually lose to lone star. While lone star is definitely on an upward trajectory, let’s not forget that wakeland is has almost always been a couple places higher at state.

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted

1. Wakeland/Lonestar (Wakeland Most Likely) MAYBE could tie with Lone Star in Area but won't be beaten in 5A State
2. Lonestar/Argyle (Lonestar Most Likely)
3. Argyle/Lonestar (Argyle Most Likely
4. Mckinney North/Lebanon Trail (MN Most Likely)
5. Lebanon Trail/MN (LT Most Likely)

6-10th Heritage/Reedy/Liberty/Memorial (Not in Order)


I chose this list personally because even though in Area some bands place higher, in State Finals it goes WAY differently, Even though a band may place higher than a Band in State, that doesn't mean they will place higher in Area, Argyle being right behind Lone Star in State is crazy, they are making Jumps.

Posted
  On 8/3/2025 at 3:34 PM, DrummersEcho said:

1. Wakeland/Lonestar (Wakeland Most Likely) MAYBE could tie with Lone Star in Area but won't be beaten in 5A State
2. Lonestar/Argyle (Lonestar Most Likely)
3. Argyle/Lonestar (Argyle Most Likely
4. Mckinney North/Lebanon Trail (MN Most Likely)
5. Lebanon Trail/MN (LT Most Likely)

6-10th Heritage/Reedy/Liberty/Memorial (Not in Order)


I chose this list personally because even though in Area some bands place higher, in State Finals it goes WAY differently, Even though a band may place higher than a Band in State, that doesn't mean they will place higher in Area, Argyle being right behind Lone Star in State is crazy, they are making Jumps.

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image.thumb.png.d7aff3e64e650137e260215fc753acf7.png

Lone Star and Wakeland were pretty close at state last year, so I wouldn't rule out lone star beating them since there was only a 4 point difference.

Posted

I don’t know why the Lone Star program has so many insistent students here but the truth is simple: Wakeland is vastly stronger and infinitely more likely to place higher than them at most every contest.

Posted
  On 8/3/2025 at 3:34 PM, DrummersEcho said:

1. Wakeland/Lonestar (Wakeland Most Likely) MAYBE could tie with Lone Star in Area but won't be beaten in 5A State
2. Lonestar/Argyle (Lonestar Most Likely)
3. Argyle/Lonestar (Argyle Most Likely
4. Mckinney North/Lebanon Trail (MN Most Likely)
5. Lebanon Trail/MN (LT Most Likely)

6-10th Heritage/Reedy/Liberty/Memorial (Not in Order)


I chose this list personally because even though in Area some bands place higher, in State Finals it goes WAY differently, Even though a band may place higher than a Band in State, that doesn't mean they will place higher in Area, Argyle being right behind Lone Star in State is crazy, they are making Jumps.

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I do agree that I think wakeland is likely to get first again, but I’m curious about your placement of lone star and argyle. Though they were a place behind lone star at state, it was by a decently wide margin. However, argyle is a rapidly improving program so I don’t think it’s impossible for them to maybe pull of a feat like 2nd. We’ll see how things go once we see everyone’s shows are out on the field. I will say though, lone star’s music selection seems promising and I’m very excited to see how they preform their show.

Posted
  On 8/3/2025 at 7:43 PM, zxrzxz said:

I do agree that I think wakeland is likely to get first again, but I’m curious about your placement of lone star and argyle. Though they were a place behind lone star at state, it was by a decently wide margin. However, argyle is a rapidly improving program so I don’t think it’s impossible for them to maybe pull of a feat like 2nd. We’ll see how things go once we see everyone’s shows are out on the field. I will say though, lone star’s music selection seems promising and I’m very excited to see how they preform their show.

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This is one thing that I also agree with. Argyle is right now going through whiplash of changing divisions and they still performed incredibly well against the pressure of the "tenured" finalist in this Area. However, I think Lone Star is going to be hard to surpass, at least for this year (don't hold me to it). Lone Stars area prelims performance last year would've had me ranking them higher than Wakeland, but I didn't get that same feeling for the remainder of the competitive year.

Another thing to note is I do think that the storyline of LT vs MN could be an interesting one to see develop (not to discount Reedy or any others, this is purely speculation before seeing any shows). Since I do think that Argyle could very easily separate itself into the Area B frontrunners conversation, then it could be a wild dash for the 4th state advancement position.

Posted

Yeah, even though Wakeland lone star was 4 points away from Wakeland, Wakeland's 2024 show wasn't as musically demanding or strong as their 2023 show, their 2023 show was very good and if they really push harder at everything they could get a bronze medal or beat Lone Stars scores and maybe Tie for . Lone Star has Way stronger and harder music and I feel like Wakeland has more stronger and harder drill. Lone Star could beat them at state possibly, it just depends. Wakelands Show does look very promising, same with Lonestars. Man, these schools are at each others necks, these Two schools are the most interesting 5A's for me. Wont sleep on Argyle though, they might kick Lone Star in a few spots.

Posted

With all the recent improvements and leaks ive seen/heard I honestly think Walnut and Emerson are going to make massive improvements this year. I think both are going to be high prospects for the 5-7 spots, possibly one sneaking into 4th place as Argyle is looking less promising this season. That being said Wakeland and Lone Star are still guaranteed top 2 in my eyes, and with the way the judges like North they are a solid third.

With the new judging changes/director changes and other things, I don't think Liberty, Heritage, and Reedy can keep up the placements they got last year. A lot of their key members recently graduated as well, so who knows how they'll do following some surprising results in 2024

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