bchorn

As predicted, for the third year in a row, Timber Creek advanced to state last night and McNeil did not. I also predict that for the third year in a row, Timber Creek will not beat an Area D participant at state prelims. And frankly, I'd be surprised if any Area B participant outside of Coppell beats an Area D participant. I'll also add that given how tight the scores were for 6th-9th place that all four of those bands would do extremely well at state prelims and beat every non-Coppell Area B participant.

You mean...have all the Austin bands drive back to Austin...and then force everybody to cancel their Sunday plans...and then pay transportation costs again to go back to San Antonio? Nope...would never happen. Historically, prelim results become final results when finals can't happen.

Its official...using the latest HornRank rankings that just came out...Area 6A D is the most stacked Area competition in the state. Its insane that a nationally ranked band will not advance to its own state marching competition after this weekend. 15. Cedar Ridge, TX (6A D) 17. Ronald Reagan, TX (6A D) 23. James Bowie, TX (6A D) 26. McNeil, TX (6A D) 29. Round Rock, TX (6A D) 30. Dripping Springs, TX (6A D) 4. Hebron, TX (6A J) 7. Flower Mound, TX (6A J) 10. Marcus, TX (6A J) 22. Prosper, TX (6A J) 11. Cedar Park, TX (5A H) 14. Rouse, TX (5A H) 25. Leander, TX (5A H) 3. Vandegrift, TX (6A H) 16. Vista Ridge, TX (6A H) 24. Westlake, TX (6A H)

I think the only guarantee we can all agree on is that some really amazing bands that could easily place in the top 20 in state prelims are not going to advance to state prelims.

yeah, this area is no joke. Case in point. McNeil just finished 4th in last night's BOA St Louis Super Regional...which will probably be a better finish for them than at this year's Area D competition sadly. Also, Timber Creek (who McNeil beat at last night competition) will probably advance to state for the third year in a row this year...even though McNeil will probably not. And in neither of Timber Creek's two previous trips to state did Timber Creek beat any Area D competitors those years. This area is insane.

Correct. BOA uses the student population in grades 10-12 to determine classification. And I agree that school size doesn't necessarily indicate quality. Just look at Marian Catholic where I swear half of the school is in the band!

I didn't realize how few large schools attend this regional. Here's a count of 4A schools at last year's super regionals and grand nats. San Antonio 30 Grand Nationals 23 Indy 22 St Louis 7 Heck, several TX regionals have more than 7 4A bands in their finals.

Louis D Brandeis and Moe & Gene Johnson were first bands out and that doesn't surprise me. They were the best bands that didn't make finals IMO. I really felt bad for them...their shows would have easily fit in well into finals.

Yes...it was already tough before Dripping Springs and Moe & Gene Johnson moved up to 6A. Now it's just brutal. So many great bands who would do really well at state don't get to advance.

Ah, my bad. You are correct.

It's not good luck. It's traditional in most marching contests outside of UIL that the winner of the previous year's contest goes last.

Such a tough competition today. There was some REALLY good bands who didn't qualify for finals. I feel for them...but this competition is very stacked.

12 were taken in the 2022 finals. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y7k4iCxg9QS44j0XSKZLxM6qRejTPJb-/view

Ok..that's fair. My understanding of TMC is that they bring in BOA judges and have sheets that are comparable to BOA judging. Not exactly the same but similar. That's what I was basing my comments on.

Yes, McNeil finished sixth last year. But as I mentioned earlier in this thread, this year's TMC will be the most competitive lineup TMC has had since the pandemic. I think it would be great if McNeil finished in the top 6. I'm just skeptical it will happen against this year's competition.

McNeil finished third to Dripping Springs and Bowie at BOA San Marcos this year...so when I factor in Vandy, Rouse, Vista Ridge, and Reagan, it becomes difficult for me to see how McNeil can cross into that top 6 group.

I love McNeil's show but I would be shocked if they cracked the top 6.

I think it's going to be difficult for McNeil to crack the top 6...but that doesn't necessarily mean McNeil took a step back over last year. It'll be difficult because this year TMC will have IMO this most competitive lineup TMC has had since the pandemic. There's going to be some good bands this year who would have qualified for finals at prior contests who will not qualify for finals this year. So McNeil making finals THIS YEAR will be a big accomplishment...and I think they will do it.

Way to go McNeil for getting first place in 6A!!!

It was a narrow win last year and then McNeil beat Churchill at Area. So I would say the bands are even at this point until a head to head matchup happens.

Not sure this is what you're looking for but here's my stab at it. First off, I was at finals and I can say the scores and the score gaps I think were pretty spot on. Here's how I would classify the bands Tier 1 84.75 Dripping Spring Tier 2 83.2 Bowie Tier 3 81.9 McNeil 81.75 Moe & Gene Johnson 81.65 Louis D Brandies 80.9 Hendrickson 78.3 CTJ Tier 4 74.25 Peiper 74.0 Lockhart 73.65 William B Travis 72.85 Liberty Hill 71.55 A&M Consolidated I though CTJ's score was a little low. They seemed worthy of being in the top 6. I would also say it was a toss up between all the bands in tier 3...and different judges would give a different order.

I think they had a great show this year as well. The score placements for them have been very puzzling.

How on earth did McNeil beat Westlake, Leander, Moe & Gene Johnson, and Lake Travis (in prelims) at TMC? That finish for McNeil is looking more and more like an fluke/outlier.

Texas is on a whole another planet when it comes to marching bands right now. Remember that Westwood finished 3rd at the St Louis Super Regional and yet couldn't even finish in the top 14 at the this Super Regional...despite 5 of last year's finalists not returning. It's insane how good the bands are in Texas right now.

No...just do it all at once so we don't overload the server with refreshes hearing 14 finalists.