Anthony V

Timber Creek - Controlled opening statement. Nice cleaning marching here in the opener during the flute trio. Great job with that triple tonguing by the way. A little bit of side-to-side balance issues in the brass now that we're spread out from 15 to 15. Some foot timing issues while we have this half time/double time marching in brass and WW. Good job saxophone quartet. Now we're on to a clarinet + euphonium + alto saxophone trio. Some body work in the winds. Good job weapon line. Beautiful balance in the big ballad hit; great job centering in that sound with the resolved chord. Soprano sax solo and weapon line is getting after it with the drum line. Great energy to start off the opener. Trombone feature, WW feature, then fll band. We're mostly carrying through that energy. Final chord fully matches the energy. Good technique overall, maybe we'll see more energy tonight under the lights.

Assuming we don't get rained out, I'll be boots-on-the-ground here today, folks. I'll try and make the occasional update. Haven't made it to the stadium yet but hoping to do so by Aledo.

By chance do we have any boots on the ground there in STL, e.g., with MGG or CH? If not -- livestreamers, I'm counting on you for my precious updates 😂 Hoping for two TX finalists and maybe a medalist!

I all but thought you had made a mistake putting SFA in finals but Midlo in 3rd for 3A until I checked and realized SFA is now 4A! Who would you have as just out?

Congrats to Midlothian on their first BOA regional championship! Also a great performance from Trinity, putting them over Permian. I did not expect that! And congrats to Saginaw on making finals -- in what, if memory serves, might be their first BOA finals appearance!

80.000 — Midlothian H.S., TX 78.950 — Trinity H.S., TX 78.250 — Permian H.S., TX 76.750 — Westmoore H.S., OK 76.200 — Midland H.S., TX 74.625 — Clovis H.S., NM 73.850 — Frenship H.S., TX 73.650 — Granbury H.S., TX 72.950 — Nimitz H.S., TX 72.700 — Lubbock-Cooper H.S., TX 70.900 — Saginaw H.S., TX 69.400 — Odessa H.S., TX Outstanding Music Performance – Midlothian H.S., TX Outstanding Visual Performance – Westmoore H.S., OK Outstanding General Effect – Midlothian H.S., TX

I think it presents Birdville as more consistent, but I'm not sure it shifts how I view area F predictions. In fairness, that may say more about me than it does about Birdville; I let past experience and historical results have a bit more inertia in my predictions, partly because I am an untrained neanderthal by comparison to the undercover (ex-)designers, (ex-)directors, and/or (ex-)judges on here, and partly because I am only keeping up with performances in praesentia (which, this year, are not very many for me). An anecdote: I had the good pleasure of watching Birdville at BOA San Antonio prelims in 2023. At their best, their ensemble sound was strikingly good. In fact, I thought it was the best tone I had ever heard Birdville consistently produce. So I was perplexed when I found out that they placed 41st in music ensemble. I have had this experience on more than one occasion listening to BISD schools. So, when I notice it, I do not assume it will make adjudicators want to dole out points like it would make me want to.

Good catch. Looks like I mixed up prelims and finals. When I get a chance, I'll go back and fix that.

Regarding possible state advancers and area finalists... -Aledo and Burleson Centennial are definitely our locks. I say that not necessarily because I'm predicting that they will place above the other bands, but because these programs are just so darn consistent. I understand the sentiment that BC's ensemble sound can feel underwhelming compared to other groups, but they are a well-rounded program and their program's pedagogical style seems to be to achieve that technical balance as fast as possible without simply peaking. -I think it's reasonable to not consider Colleyville Heritage a state advancer without more data, but there's also four weeks until area. Also, they have a respectable staff. If they were dealt a bad hand this year, they might just need time to navigate through it (assuming the possibility). For most of the other possible state advancers, I think we don't have enough information. -Following Burleson Centennial, Midlothian is probably the closest thing to a lock right now. Their performance at Mansfield POC (27 Sep), putting them narrowly (0.07) below Walnut Grove, is a positive indicator for them. Last week they did not compete because they contest-hosted. We will get more data on them this coming weekend from their appearance at BOA Midland. -Next, Richland is definitely a wild card. Their USBands Saginaw (27 Sep) finish above Lake Belton (13th at 2024 UIL state prelims to Richland's 15th) in finals suggested a top 5 finish here. The Don Hanna (4 Oct) results overall were unexpected, and Richland's low placement in prelims and finals (6th/8th) was one of the more surprising pieces. Add to that the fact that we have no more contest data from them until area prelims results are announced. This weekend they are co-hosting BISD (exhibition only), and then they fall off the radar until 1 Nov. They could end up in the bottom half of area finals, or they could slam it into gear for a comeback and take 2nd place over BC (cf. Area F 2023). I just don't know, and honestly it could be mostly up to their choices in the next few weeks rather than inertial factors as to what will transpire. -Birdville is also to some degree a wild card because of the Don Hanna results. There, they finished 5th in both prelims and finals (both over Richland) and snagged a few captions music/ensemble captions. Their finals finish the week before at Wylie Marching Invitational (7th), where they were almost tied with JJ Pearce (6th), was more consistent with the results we see the following week from Don Hanna compared to their flatter prelims results (9th). As with Richland, they are co-hosting the BISD contest next week (exhibition only). But unlike Richland, we get more data from Birdville before area as they attend the Duncanville contest (18 Oct). -Grapevine is another possible, as some people have mentioned. They placed 15th in prelims at McKinney (4 Oct) -- and that's all we have so far. That will change over the next couple of weeks at they compete at BISD and BOA Waco. Next, some of the possible finalists. -If there is to be any unexpected surprise from the bottom half, I would bet on it being Saginaw. They already made a surprise finals showing as USBands (7th in finals above Fossil Ridge [and Cleburne]). -Speaking of, Fossil Ridge (and maybe Cleburne) is also a possible finalist, depending on how they recover from their low placements early season. -And Azle has become a consistent finalist for this area in the past few years. I would expect to see Azle over Fossil Ridge, and as of now over Colleyville Heritage. -But I would retain CH as a possible finalist for now. We will see results from them at BISD this weekend, as well as at STL super regional the next weekend. If they are still towards the bottom of prelims at BISD, then I would lean against the possibility. I don't predict that they will make finals at either of these contests, but if they do, then I fully expect to see them at area F finals, and if hypothetically they made finals at STL, I think we are back to talking about them as a possible state advancer. Otherwise, I don't know how I could reasonably improve their probabilities. -Finally, some weaker data: Brewer swept the Godley Wildcat contest (27 Sep), and Chisholm Trail came only a couple points under Boswell at BOA DFW (Oct 4). Rough groupings in rough order: Locks. Aledo and Burleson Centennial Plausible State Advancers. Midlothian, Richland, Birdville, Grapevine (Some) Plausible Finalists. Azle, Saginaw, Brewer, Chisholm Trail, Cleburne, Fossil Ridge, Colleyville Heritage There are almost certainly arguments to be made for other possible finalists. I confess to not doing research on all of them. I am lazy.

Regarding how many bands advance, I looked it up (because I always forget) and here's what I found. Per UIL 1106 (k)-(2): 15 or more will likely qualify for area F. That kicks into gear the rule that every 5 area qualifiers create a state advancer spot. 30 qualifiers divided by 5 (the rule) is 6 state spots. As ti-84 mentions, 30-34 area qualifiers would also make 12 finals spots (per UIL 1106 [h]-[4], same link as above). Edit: CharterBusLover already mentioned that for 30 bands

"Don't make me come down there" -LKendrick, probably

I only have partial, second-hand finals results. Sorry! Someone else will have to fill things in. 1-North Mesquite 2-Lakeview Centennial 3-Boswell 4- 5-Birdville 6-Little Elm 7- 8-Richland 9- 10- (Missing: TC, Rowlett, North Mesquite, Northwest) Music- Birdville Visual- Lakeview Centennial Percussion- Boswell (I don't know if there was a GE or guard caption.)

They don't release recaps. From the looks of things, they don't even release scores -- just placements.

I'm not at the contest, but here's what I'm hearing from those with prelims results: 1-Boswell 2-Lakeview Centennial 3-Little Elm 4-North Mesquite 5-Birdville 6-Richland 7-Frisco Centennial 8-The Colony 9-Rowlett 10-Northwest Finals performances: 600(pm) - Richland 615 - Rowlett 630 - Frisco Centennial 645 - The Colony 700 - Northwest 715 - Break 730 - Lakeview Centennial 745 - Little Elm 800 - Birdville 815 - North Mesquite 830 - Boswell

Great question! I can't speak to their plans with any authority, but if I had to guess the strategy here, Don Hanna finals is a fallback in case they don't make BOA DFW finals. As to your comment about it hurting them, I suppose in theory the tiredness of having two "prelims" runs could set back whatever their finals performance is. But skilled directors (such as at Boswell) know how to navigate that kind of situation.

I'm intrigued at how close KC and Forney were, especially in prelims. I had been wondering if KC would maintain momentum with their director change, and it looks like they are so far.

I think Boswell's strong showing at USBands Saginaw puts them in running for the gold with Richland and The Colony. If Legacy and maybe Little Elm make strong showings as well, the top 5 could be especially competitive at this competition.

Re: finals results. I'm a little puzzled to see Fossil Ridge so low. But I'm happily surprised to see a strong showing from Boswell. We also saw a Richland prelims-to-finals bump -- so congrats to them on another top-3 contest finish. And congrats to Burleson Centennial on another contest win! This bodes well for them, especially when auxiliary captions count at UIL. It's too bad Richardson had to cancel and V.R. Eaton had other obligations. A semi-educated guess is that Richardson, Garland, and V.R. Eaton would have filled out 5th-7th had they all been in finals. Re: prelims results. Follow link: https://usbands.org/events/files-events/1000/1128/SAGINAW-PRELIMS-RESULTS.pdf It looks like Krum withdrew, in addition to Richardson's cancelation! Looks like Lake Belton and Richland were "tied" for 3rd (tie broken in favor of Lake Belton), and V.R. Eaton was in 6th (behind Garland but ahead of Saginaw).

Finals schedule (reverse placement order): 6:00 pm Manor High School 6:15 pm Ann Richards School for Young Women Leaders 6:30 pm William J Brennan High School 6:45 pm Liberty Hill High School 7:00 pm Weiss High School 7:15 pm James Madison High School 7:30 pm BREAK 7:45 pm McCallum High School 8:00 pm Jack C. Hays High School 8:15 pm United High School 8:30 pm William Howard Taft High School 8:45 pm John Paul Stevens High School 9:00 pm Louis D. Brandeis High School

Finals schedule below, from USBands website. I think it's reverse placement order. (Well, here's what the info packet says: "The advancing 12 ensembles will be re-sorted by score. / The lowest scoring ensemble will perform first. / The highest scoring ensemble will perform last." I assume the middle 10 bands are not randomized but re-sorted by score in ascending order, which would be reverse placement order.) 6:00 pm Grand Saline High School 6:15 pm Chisholm Trail High School 6:30 pm Eagle Mountain High School 6:45 pm Frisco High School 7:00 pm Fossil Ridge High School 7:15 pm Cleburne High School 7:30 pm Ryan High School 7:45 pm INTERMISSION 8:00 pm Saginaw High School 8:15 pm Garland High School 8:30 pm Richland High School 8:45 pm Lake Belton High School 9:00 pm W.E. Boswell High School 9:15 pm Centennial High School https://usbands.org/events/details.php?ID=1128

It's certainly possible; it happened before with BOA Arlington 2010, and esp. 2011. But I'm not aware of any recent data that points in that direction.

With the official schedule released, the only major change seems to be -- as others have noticed -- the introduction of Boswell. I would add that Boswell has a good shot at top half here, and a slight chance at making it into the top three. In terms of prelims performance order, TC has an edge over Richland, so we might see Richland lower in prelims but then get a finals bump. Relatedly, Krum -- as the earliest performer of the bubble bands -- will need a memorable performance in prelims to get into finals. If I'm reading the schedule rightly, Krum's closest score "anchor" is in the next block, and it's Richland, so it will be interesting to see how the judges navigate that one.

Is there anyone going to this contest that could keep us updated on performances and/or results?

Thank you, Clarinot. Non-cache page loading is much better. Still a bit slow (I think?) but certainly tolerable.

I think TubaLord11's predictions from May are about right. We will have scarce data on most of these groups going into the competition and, in fact, this competition will be the first litmus test for most all of these bands. There are only a couple significant changes since May: (1) V.R. Eaton is not marching finals and (2) Lake Belton is now attending. In terms of rough groupings, not necessarily in order within those groupings: 1-4: Burleson Centennial, Richland, Lake Belton, Boswell. 5-7: Richardson, Fossil Ridge, Chisolm Trail 8-10+: Frisco, N. Crowley, Saginaw, Ryan (bubble?)