TrenBS

As a student of neither, eh Lone Star beat Wakeland at state in woodwinds and brass which makes up 2/5 of the area sheets now, if Lone Star could pull ahead even in one visual caption they can very realistically caption Wakeland out of a win. I don't think this would be the most likely scenario since Wakeland seems to be a level ahead of Lone Star visually, but saying they're VASTLY stronger in regards to UIL is hyperbolizing the gap between the two in regards to UIL. BOA Id be inclined to agree with you If Lonestar has a killer show and they have the better run between them and Wakeland they can very realistically win area, state Id need to see it to believe it, but its really just visually and in percussion where they lag in particular. They have the winds to beat Wakeland, they just need to reach that next level in visuals and close the percussion gap

Hopefully the travels arent rough haha

Actually question, with Flower Mound doing Nationals AND BOA San Antonio, are they going to state this year or will they opt out? Because that seems like a lot of travel time and money in a short proximity, and logistically would probably be overwhelming. Im going in with expectations that they are going to state but if anyone has any information/confirmation that would be appreciated!

If this is the case which I totally could see that, area is probably going to be realigned pretty heavily I imagine, I dont see the overall benefit of representing multiple districts by having 1 dominate areas, although I dont know how they would address this with J and H unless they changed the amount of area bands needed to add state slots (from 5 to 1, to 4 to 1 or something) Some of the areas are becoming extremely district dominated, so I doubt UIL does nothing about it since theyve actually been pretty open to making changes as of late

From what Ive been seeing about North, I doubt they drop below 11th since they're really pushing to maintain state finalist level, I don't see them dropping below finals, but their ceiling is incredibly vague right now. I think their absolute ceiling is 7th, but 10th is where they will settle if everything stays the same as last year which will NOT be the case for any season haha

Im down for this: 6A. Flower Mound 5A. Cedar Park 4A. Celina 3A. Redwater 2A. Ganado 1A. Irion County

Dropping prediction now to see how I do in the pre-season guessing, this year will likely be a little more consistent with Bedford since a lot of repeat contenders will be here along with Marcus being a predictable 1st: 1. Marcus 2. Coppell 3. Wakeland 4. Prosper 5. SLC 6. Wylie 7. Braswell 8. Lone Star 9. McKinney High 10. McKinney North 11. Rockwall 12. Lebanon Trail/Forney/Rock Hill

Oh the members will transform alright, and their marching power level will increase 50 fold...

(North*)

WW/Brass/Perc Visual Ind/Ens

Lone Star could beat Wakeland with these new captions, they had beaten Wakeland in woodwinds and brass and visual ensemble, losing only in percussion and visual individual, along with the broader music ensemble and content captions, I think Wakeland is still more likely to win since its earlier, but could still change Otherwise not sure, McKinney North is going to be really strong next year with their director changes, to be honest, I think TMEA wont see much massive improvements but for marching they have a significantly more talented staff for DCI in particular, and hopefully it shows on these sheets this fall, Argyle probably is more in the 2nd/3rd range rather than 3rd/4th

Prediction: 1. Flower Mound (Vis Ind/Ens)* 2. Hebron (WW)* 3. Marcus (Br/Perc)* 4. Prosper/McKinney (Perc McKinney WW/Br Prosper) 5. McKinney/Prosper (Vis Ind Prosper) 6. Braswell (Vis Ens) 7. Wylie East 8. McKinney Boyd 9. Wylie 10. Rock Hill iykyk

To update on North, their associate director, Connor Vaughn is taking over as the head director, which in my opinion might make them even MORE of a powerhouse since he was a teacher in DCI (marched at Crown as a trumpet in 14 and 15, taught at Crossmen, Mandarans, and The Cadets their last year), and Mr.Williams was much more on the concert band side of things from what Ive been told over the years, so I dont think North will dip and will continue to further improve, their floor is very likely going to be 5th at area, but we shall see

The head director at McKinney North is leaving to go to the new Moseley middle school in ProsperISD, which, despite him being a large contributing factor to McKinney Norths success over the past 3-4 years, I dont think they will take a massive hit since the staff as a whole is rock solid, and the associate director was the one leading the marching side of things, so frankly I doubt they will decline or even dip temporarily besides new head director shuffle shenanigans. Heres my prediction as well: 1. Wakeland 2. Lone Star 3. McKinney North/Argyle (Argyle lead) 4. Argyle/McKinney North (North drag) 5. Lebanon Trail 6. Walnut Grove 7. Reedy 8. Emerson 9. Liberty 10. Memorial

Here is my predictions going just based off of the trend from 2023-2024, non-objective list of course, and free to disagree etc. (gets tiring writing that out even though its important to keep in mind haha) 1. Lone Star 2. McKinney High 3. Argyle 4. Rock Hill 5. Lakeview 6. Walnut Grove 7. Little Elm 8. Celina 9. Memorial 10. Liberty

Most programs Ive seen (at least for north DFW) refuse to let kids onto the bus without their water jugs since its a part of their uniform checklist, any program that doesnt have this as a requirement to go to any game, show, competition, or heck especially rehearsals is really setting them up for failure If this isnt mandatory for EVERY school, Im frankly shocked there hasnt been more lawsuits or reports of heatstroke

Director changes have been handled very well at least on the short run, in recent years. Many bigger schools with director changes keep the same methods throughout the first year and ease into the new head director's methodology, for better or worse, so I expect these schools to either remain in their spots or some bump up a lot.

I know about Wylie East but is Schroeder leaving Wylie HS? I havent heard of anything like that happening unless you mean fine arts director or the new assistant directors

I see, would say a Scholastic A and a National A have a major point difference in regards to like obvious differences (like is an SA score of 70 even remotely comparable to a National A 70, or is National A way beyond the Scholastic A standards?) I know Independent and Open make it muddy but talking mainly from the next in line in regards to NTCA

As somebody relatively new to looking at Winter Guard but familiar with band and predictions, predicting something like WGI in the current format seems difficult, and would likely need a more robust system of prediction like its own website. I dont think its a bad idea, heck I think somebody with some coding experience could easily set up a website that splits the predictions by contest, THEN by classification just so you dont have to predict 30+ groups placements at a time, since generally most WG contests dont have a finals. But I think hosting it on TXBands or Hornranks website would need some heavy restructuring

Im overall pretty new to watching winter guard, is there anywhere that explains the divisions/score differences between them, and if these scores translate at all in the WGI equivalent?

Plus, McKinney MI isnt happening on the last September week, but now its usual schedule with Bedford, so that opens up a lot for the level of programs weve come to expect at WMI and Melissa

Yeah, and I don't see how adding an additional 3 slots that can be split between 3 of the 5-10 areas would be "throwing UIL/TMEA out of the window". If the rule were to be adding a slot for each state finalist in the area, making it 12-14 extra slots, yes it would be extremely excessive, but considering the winners since post-COVID have been the same 2 bands in notoriously difficult areas, bringing a little levity to those areas is not the worst idea since the whole concept of ignoring balance was already ignored with current area C, which is by far the weakest in regards to state rep between them, area B, and J (not a single finalist while the other 2 DFW areas had 2-3, could've been 3-4 if Prosper and Timber got 9-12 less points). But I guess having balanced area contests isnt good for the activity, why dont we combine area A with J then so we can continue cutting down on state slots? Because obviously Texas band is going downhill in regards to skill and more representation would be harmful to advancing this little activity

C. #1 was a long time coming honestly, the 5 judge system was dated even back in the mid-2000s, and with how robust BOA judging and even local contest judging has become, it has made area a very weird and almost random feeling competition at times (most of the time besides the state/area finals locked bands) I hope C. #3 and #4 pass, color guard in Texas is growing and given how much shows are being designed with color guard in mind nowadays, we should absolutely have them be a very noticeable factor in the overall placements, and caption awards are always welcome The new business is very interesting, I really like the concept of 5. if they make timing more lenient, and especially #3, given how consistent the past state winners have been (Hebron 24, Vandegrift 23, Vandegrift 22, Hebron 21), giving bands like Prosper, Wylie, and Brandeis better chances of making state without being monopolied out is a good change in my opinion

Ill go ahead and say the McKinney schools are all very very likely to attend, and I am very very excited to see what North and Boyd in particular are planning, I know nothing about McKinney High so Im hoping for the best for them