takigan

The only lock I see is Cedar Park. They're the only band that has been consistent enough in the past and this season to place that much confidence in. Vandegrift has been all over the place in rankings for the past 2 seasons....Regardless of their win over Cedar Park at Vista Ridge, there's no way they could be a lock at a high-stakes contest like this. Lake Travis has only recently begun to prove their mettle and they're going up against Connally and Hendrickson; both very consistent bands that have advanced to state in recent years.....one slip from Lake Travis could see them placing 5th or 6th and their recent successes being nothing more than a flashpoint. I also agree that CP, Vandy, Lake Travis and DS are the surest bets for predictions, but I don't see them as locks that make the contest a shutout before it's even begun.

If you look at BOA San Antonio as a 2-day festival and celebration of achievement and not some contest where some bands are being jipped out of their money and time for showing up on Saturday only to be denied a finals spot, then it's not as big of a deal. Most bands invest in this as a 2-day educational event that includes a mixture of performing, watching other bands perform, eating out and enjoying the venue/location and doing other activities (This is even more the case for Grand Nationals, which is technically a 4-day event). Many directors know they aren't going to make finals....and some leave early knowing this (some will budget the money to return just in case, and then use the money on something else if they don't make it) but the directors that choose to stay will plan things to do with their band on Saturday until the announcement, then will stay to watch all of finals (or have separate buses for the students that want to go home and the students that want to stay and watch) should they not make the cut. Your suggestion to prerelease some of the scores is only beneficial to the small number of schools who see this as nothing more than a contest, and also ruins the spirit of the competition for everyone else at the festival. "If you didn't plan on sticking around, you're probably not ready to be here" I think is the bottom line.

I think you're right. Here's a list of bands I have that have made 1s in Area D Region 12 New Braunfels - Canyon Clemens Smithson Valley Region 18 Connally Crockett Dripping Springs Hendrickson Hays LBJ Lehman McCallum Region 26 Cedar Park Cedar Ridge Hutto Lake Travis Marble Falls Rouse Vandegrift Vista Ridge The only Region from D who's results I don't have yet are Region 8, but they should be made public soon. The thing is... only 19 bands so far have made 1's and there are only 6 4A High Schools attending Region 8.....All 6 of them (Corsicana, Bryan-Rudder, Killeen, Waco, Waco-Midway and University) will have to make 1's in order for Area D to advance 5 bands and I just don't see that happening.

Area F 4A Results: 1. Dawson (Advanced) 2. Friendswood (Advanced) 3. Clear Falls 4. Huntsville 5. Willis 6. Galena Park 7. Vidor 8. Montgomery 9. Little Cypress - Mauriceville 10. Barbers Hill 11. Port Neches - Groves 12. Texas City Willis placed higher than I expected (but still happy they did, since I student taught there).....so switch Willis with Galena Park and you would've had my Top 5 predictions in perfect order.

Ha! I just now saw this. Yeah, I'm totally posting the reference for those who didn't get it:

Probably 5....It could be 4, but I'm going to go with 5 just because of how many bands have dropped down to 4A lately. 13 bands actually. 4 new bands (underlined) who weren't there in '09 replaced 4 bands who got to go last time that didn't make the cut this time (Lumberton, Crosby, Goose Creek Memorial and Angleton): Texas City Dawson Friendswood Clear Falls Huntsville Montgomery Willis Little Cypress Mauriceville Nederland Port Neches Groves Vidor Barber's Hill Galena Park This still means 2 spots. Friendswood and Dawson will both likely be in State Finals and gunning for Top 5....this sadly makes them pretty much shoe-ins and no one else will get to go

That number is determined by how many bands in each Area make a 1 at Region (1 advancing band per 5 bands that do....minimum of 2 if the number is less than 10). Since not all Regions have had their Region contest yet, we don't know the totals for all Areas.

Not true.....it's a lot like listening to tempo consistencies, precision of attacks and precision of chords in wind music....all you really need is an ear for that kind of thing and a basic understanding of percussion fundamentals and rudiments and such (which you'll learn if you've ever taught a percussion class or taken one as a music major in college). Percussion specialists are going to be best at it, but a good musician who's not a drummer that has spent a lot of time working with full ensembles will eventually learn how to discern good percussion playing from bad. I'm not a drummer, but I can certainly tell the difference between an early season DCI drumline and a Finals Week drumline. I've also judged All-Region percussion before and my evaluations were consistent with the judges with percussion background. Any well known head band director (non-percussion) at X school could be a judge at X Percussion festival and his score sheet wouldn't look too different from a well known DCI Percussion judge......When organizational staff for marching band festivals pick percussion judges, they pick "drum guys" because they want the weight of their name and notoriety as a "drum guy" to mean something to the participants when they make their judgement calls...but really they'd do just fine with any [read "good"] band director who isn't a percussionist.

Clear Falls is a pretty safe bet for the potential 3rd State slot in F. Despite the fact that they got a 2 at UIL last year, they're having a great year this year. They did very well at Friendswood, placing behind Dawson and Dripping Springs in their division and missing finals by only 1 place. Clear Falls will likely make a 1 this year, which would make F's ability to reach 15 bands more possible (15 bands made it in 2007 but only 13 in '09). Magnolia West is a newer school that has been improving each year, and could possibly get a 1 as well after getting a 1-2-2 last go round. I say Clear Falls is a safe bet. However I'm also willing to put Huntsville in the mix (not to mention Galena Park, since they made the cut last go-round). Here's my math: Dobie beat Clear SPRINGS at SHSU by a couple of places last year (if you look at the scores it's not by much though). Clear Springs placed 12th at Friendswood this year right behind the aforementioned Clear Falls (11th). At Galena Park this year, Huntsville placed right behind Dobie (again only a small margin separated them). I'm not saying this proves Huntsville can beat Clear Falls, I'm just saying it puts them in the same league of ability to where CF isn't necessarily a shoe-in. Galena Park's judge scores at their festival were also right behind Huntsville's. It's easy to be biased about Huntsville though, since I currently work with them, but I'm seeing things happen here. Huntsville is military style though (like several of the 4A Area F bands are) so if the judges are biased at all against military (and they're out there....saying judges aren't biased towards military is a hard sell), you can pretty much count Clear Falls in for that 3rd spot. Btw, all these "Clear" schools are confusing (Clear Creek, Clear Falls, Clear Brook, Clear Lake, Clear Springs)...They're all in the same district too. It reminds me of the Cypress-Fairbanks district (Cy Fair, Cy Creek, Cy Springs, Cy Falls, Cy Lakes, Cy Ridge, Cy Ranch, Cy Woods).

You never know what to expect from Vandegrift.....they keep jumping back and forth from "one of the pack" to "dynasty and legend".

Locks: Bell - Industry Standard Marcus - Precise as a razor. Caption-Sweeped Prelims and Finals in one of the most competitive early-season Regionals of all-time, and is pretty much unstoppable this season, much like they were in 2007. Shame they aren't going to Nationals; they'd actually have a shot at finally dethroning Avon. The Woodlands - Back on their game Cedar Park - Energetic and powerful as always SFA - Incredible field presence James Bowie - insane musical energy, and something to prove... Bubble: Hebron - issues with their show could keep them out, but they could still bounce back Spring - All quiet on the southern front.....a storm a brewin perhaps? Flower Mound - Having an awesome year! Churchill - consistent finalist Reagan - Always a late season blossomer.....the old Reagan seems to be coming back. Johnson - Will most likely make finals, but not necessarily a lock Westlake - Were in a bit of a slump but they seem to be making a comeback Anderson - A new face from CenTex who's proven themselves in recent years.... Keller - consistent finalist Legacy - Having an awesome year! Leander - Can surprise you Martin - A regular finalist at Arlington...and they've made the cut before here. Aledo - Pulls out the stops in the late season Richland - Been quiet in recent years.....but always has been a consistent finalist. Round Rock - Better every year.....unstoppable drumline Vandegrift - The loose cannon.....never know what to expect College Park - Also better every year....another rising star Coppell - Maybe finals this year? They're always up there.... Brazoswood - They have good years and bad years.....this year is seeming like a good one, much like last year.... If I were to pick the 8 other finalists I'd guess Johnson, Reagan, Spring, Richland, Flower Mound, Legacy, Keller and Brazoswood.

I love Reagan's version so much. The part where they break out into the Trapeze lick from La Nouba is probably the most musically epic thing in all of marching band (to me).

Merged the predictions topic and general event topic together for simplicity.

Schedule: Kaufman H.S., TX - 9:00 Judson H.S., TX - 9:15 Brazoswood H.S., TX - 9:30 Pflugerville H.S., TX - 9:45 Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX - 10:00 BREAK Vandegrift H.S., TX - 10:30 McNeil H.S., TX - 10:45 Clear Brook H.S., TX - 11:00 Friendswood H.S., TX - 11:15 Alvin H.S., TX - 11:30 The Woodlands H.S., TX - 11:45 LUNCH Cypress Falls H.S., TX - 12:30 The Woodlands College Park H.S., TX - 12:45 Oak Ridge H.S., TX - 1:00 Ronald Reagan H.S., TX - 1:15 Cedar Ridge H.S., TX - 1:30 Marcus H.S., TX - 1:45 Westwood H.S., TX - 2:00 L.D. Bell H.S., TX - 2:15 BREAK Winston Churchill H.S., TX - 2:45 Calallen H.S., TX - 3:00 Lafayette H.S., LA - 3:15 Clear Lake H.S., TX - 3:30 William B. Travis H.S., TX - 3:45 John Marshall H.S., TX - 4:00 Cedar Park H.S., TX - 4:15 Stephen F. Austin H.S., TX - 4:30

? Marcus DID win Best Percussion at Birdville last year......and by a ridiculously huge margin at that. Cisco lost to every single school at the contest in percussion except Holliday HS. They did have the best percussion out of the 2A High Schools though (All 2 of them: Cisco & Holliday). http://www.birdville.k12.tx.us/finearts/Ma...-%20Prelims.pdf http://www.birdville.k12.tx.us/finearts/Ma...0-%20Finals.pdf

Eat 'em up Kats!

Boyd's been stepping it up in recent years. I think they'll do very well in this contest. My predictions for finals are the same....just a more or less different order.

Another Story Line while we're still on topic. Bowie is the first band other than LD Bell and Marcus to win this Regional since Ronald Reagan in 2005.

o_O Wait....so you're saying this year Hebron is transitioning to BOA style? Ok, NOW I'm interested.....I've always considered Hebron to be one of the posterchilds for BOA-esque design. When I think Hebron I think DDR-style dance moves, Props with eyes that move, crank that Solja' Boy and eerie dark show elements.

Can't argue with you there. I'll be honest with you though....not trying to be negative about it but with 3rd at Nats last year, and not going to Nats this year....this could be a sign that the program is losing its dynastic edge. Much like Reagan and Westfield before them, '07 could've been their peak and now they're slowly slipping away year after year. I really hope this isn't the case....but it worries me.

I just don't think it's necessary...especially when you think about all the poor kids who check this site regularly who aren't part of a "brand name" program, hoping someone says something nice about their band, but hold back in asking because they don't want to be annoying. Now I'm not just trying to be a grinch about it. I'll admit at the same time, having the topic brought up is sort of....you know?.... because then we'll get to hear some juicy gossip about it a bit early from someone in the HEB area who might've already seen the show. But it just seems a bit greedy, and unfair to the other members who show some restraint.

No need to fish for comments young Raider. After Arlington, people will be talking about Bell's show all over the internet all the way into December....it happens every year. Follow the example of your peers and predecessors and bask in the attention with a strain of humility and pride.

Oooookay Takigan, I think you need to lay off the....--whatever you're on. I totally just posted commentary on a nonexistant contest that mixes BOA Arlington and Houston. No idea how that happened, though it probably had something to do with organizing the names and finals bubbles in the same notepad file.

If I had a nickel for every time you've corrected my ever-increasingly crowded memory of contest placements, I'd......well I'd be in need of a trip to Coinstar

I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of these DFW area programs live for the first time. Berkner, Hebron.....even L.D. Bell. It's practically a travesty I have yet to see Bell live after admiring their shows since 2006 when I saw my first recording of them. Berkner, Bowie and Bell. I honestly think any of these programs could win this.....And then there's SFA, the quintessential defending champion ('07, '09 and '10). SFA's got their work cut out for them this year though. And who knows what Vandegrift's going to pull off this year after placing 2nd last year with ZERO 12th graders.