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Posted
3 hours ago, TheJokerOfficial said:

I can definitely see that, seems like those are my hot take placements across the board. I don’t go to any of the schools that would be really considered for area finals, so maybe it’s just a guess. Apologies if I’m way off, this is just how I see things.

Nothing to apologize for, it is a prediction based off opinion after all! This is probably one of the most volatile areas for 5A, so there’s really no way to predict what will happen at any given moment

Posted
16 hours ago, Anthony V said:

It's my intention to be at both prelims and finals to make some commentary like I did for BOA Waco. Without the live blog, communication essentially comes down to Joe Q. Public. As I said elsewhere, I'm a neanderthal by comparison to the education of many people on here, so I'm glad that people found the commentary tolerably read-worthy (or at least fodder for your amusement). We'll be using a different division of labor so show design/content will get better represented and you won't have to listen to me gripe about music ensemble all day. Okay, enough of that.

I think right now there are actually about as many unknowns as there were when the season started. Although one or two things that were ambiguous pre-season have clarified by now, still several things that seemed stable pre-season have become ambiguous. Some thoughts:

-The band I feel surer about predicting than pre-season is Midlothian. As someone said, they've demonstrated that they're not a "one-hit wonder." No, they rather seem to be a many-hit wonder.

-The band I feel least sure about placing is definitely Colleyville Heritage. I can't even say whether I would or would not put them in finals (and the ever-increasing number of possible finalists doesn't help). A spot in finals at STL would have reduced a lot of ambiguity. I really think, though, that once finalists are announced, as well as state advancers, then then I'll be able to tell you whether I think CH is a finalist and/or state advancer.

-In terms of the data we have, BC (and maybe Grapevine) is the most consistent band in this area this season. So, I don't think it's necessarily a hot take when @Tubalord11 suggests Centennial can take it this year. However, they've been stationary against a volatile and changing field; if the field as a whole is shifting up, BC will come across as flat -- not flat as in missing state, but 3rd-4th place flat. But if the field as a whole has not shifted up, then I think the chances of them taking 1st greatly improve, and we could see that 1st place prediction materialize.

-Richland's early season scores are all over the place, and they're the only competitions we really have data from until area. I lack the competent authority to divulge their shadow placement for BISD, but that plus some other factors leads me to infer that they are universally positional at this contest. 

-Birdville's scores have also puzzled me. Their early season scores could be interpreted as giving them a vector landing them in the top 5. But the DMI rankings make me hesitate. DMI is a contest which should recognize the strengths of their program quite well, and so I was wondering how high they would rank -- especially given their music competitivity at Don Hanna. But neither of those factors seemed to prevent them from getting a bit buried at DMI. Even with their draw order carried over from prelims, I would have expected them to be around fifth or higher. It's too bad DMI was a one-march contest, since that would have helped clarify the impact of the draw order. 

-Grapevine is actually pretty consistent this season. Being over Duncanville at BISD and then being over Boswell (in addition to being 2A champion) at Waco are good signs for them. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder whether they will end up being a state advancer. 

-I think BOA Waco showed Aledo to be vincible. So, while they are the historical favorite for 1st, it's not something to be gainsaid. I feel less confident about predicting their placement than pre-season. 

I suppose my guesses as of now for state advancers are, not necessarily in order, Aledo, Grapevine, Richland, BC, and Midlothian. But Birdville could very well end up in the mix, or possibly even CH, but probably not both. 

After that, who will make finals? I have no clue. It's a pretty crowded bubble. 

I look forward to your observations, I enjoy hearing breakdowns of bands. 

Posted
On 10/19/2025 at 2:48 PM, 5abands said:

For me, now I just don't see how Midlothian misses out on a state spot, they managed to beat Aledo in the music caption at Waco. I feel like BC can really challenge Aledo for the first place spot, and Aledo definitely won't be sweeping 1s by every judge this year. My locks for state are Aledo, Midlothian, and BC as of right now.

IDK, it might have been the video I watched, but I found Midlothian's performance boring.  It didn't hold my attention very well.  I don't think BC will challenge Aledo for 1st.  I like their show, but Aledo's gonna Aledo.  I don't like it, but it is what it is.  Having a 9th grade campus that doesn't could toward their UIL numbers but can be used for their UIL activities is kind of shady.  It means their 6A organizations in 5A areas which is not ok IMO. But, they do put on a good show and will most likely take 1st barring some unforeseen circumstances.  

Posted
On 10/20/2025 at 10:59 AM, bandisfun124 said:

Here's my ranking at this point in time:

1. Aledo (we all know it)

2. Richland (show is very very clean and the brass balance is incredible)

3. Cen10 (brass is cleaner than normal, but show still not as challenging as richland)

4. Midlo (very cool music writing, but balance was a tiny bit interesting the few times I have heard them)

5. Grapevine (super clean show, really challenging brass and woodwind parts)

6. Azle (always good but not necessarily a UIL show. Always more successful at BOAs)

7. Chisolm Trail (super impressive show)

8. Saginaw (also very impressive)

9. Granbury (Granbury is returning to 2019 levels of skill and awesomeness, they're on the rise for sure)

10. Brewer (very impressive brass feature, maybe even better than the 2022 show)
 

I am curious what happened to Colleyville Heritage after the great year that they had last year. But anyway, the new UIL content score will take up a fourth of the band's overall score. This will grade them on the difficulty of their show, which could have an effect on the placements of usual state contenders and everyone else. This year is a really good year for all of the schools in this area, and I can't wait to see what happens.

I'm not sure Chisholm is a lock for finals.  They finished 20 out of 21 at BOA mid-cities and 9th at Birdville.  Maybe just a bad showing though?  CH finished 2 places behind Chilsholm at Birdville.  To me, those numbers aren't showing a lock for finals.  I also found Midlothian's show to be boring.  Again, maybe a bad run?  I do like Aledo, Richland, Cen10, Azle, and maybe Granbury, but I don't think Brewer or Saginaw will make.  It's possible though.

Posted
3 minutes ago, wtxbd02 said:

I for one find Midlothian's show super fun.  Especially musically.  

Boring/your personal enjoyment doesn't equal anything competitively.  

I mean, the same could be said for your opinion on it being fun.  

Posted
2 hours ago, BandMom2026 said:

IDK, it might have been the video I watched, but I found Midlothian's performance boring.  It didn't hold my attention very well.  I don't think BC will challenge Aledo for 1st.  I like their show, but Aledo's gonna Aledo.  I don't like it, but it is what it is.  Having a 9th grade campus that doesn't could toward their UIL numbers but can be used for their UIL activities is kind of shady.  It means their 6A organizations in 5A areas which is not ok IMO. But, they do put on a good show and will most likely take 1st barring some unforeseen circumstances.  

9th grade campuses do count for enrollment. 

"2. Schools with four (4) high school grades (9-12), or three (3) high school grades 
(10-12) which can easily determine the ninth graders the school will receive, shall 
calculate enrollment as follows:
a. Enrollment = Grades 9 + 10 + 11 + 12
3. Schools with three (3) high school grades (10-12) which cannot easily determine 
the ninth graders the school will receive shall calculate enrollment as follows:
a. Enrollment = Grades (10 + 11 + 12) x 1.33"

Posted
7 hours ago, BandMom2026 said:

IDK, it might have been the video I watched, but I found Midlothian's performance boring.  It didn't hold my attention very well.  I don't think BC will challenge Aledo for 1st.  I like their show, but Aledo's gonna Aledo.  I don't like it, but it is what it is.  Having a 9th grade campus that doesn't could toward their UIL numbers but can be used for their UIL activities is kind of shady.  It means their 6A organizations in 5A areas which is not ok IMO. But, they do put on a good show and will most likely take 1st barring some unforeseen circumstances.  

Midlothian's show might be boring for some, but the fact is, they score high, and it won't be changing at this competition. Aledo is still the favorite to win, of course, but I just don't see them being as dominant as they were last year in the scoring system this year, and personally, I think Burleson Centennial has improved from last year. Wouldn't be totally shocked if there's a new crown for Area champion... We'll see.

Posted

I am also very curious about how Colleyville will do in this competition. They have had a rough year so far, and they are definitely desperate to do well here. Unfortunately, I just don't see how they pull through to the state spots (I'm not even sure if they make finals here) based on the results from their earlier competitions... and what I've learned from the years of band results is that earlier consistent competition results define the direction you are headed when area roles around. It would be very, very impressive if they managed to improve drastically at the last second. Hope to see them at finals.

Posted
4 minutes ago, 5abands said:

I am also very curious about how Colleyville will do in this competition. They have had a rough year so far, and they are definitely desperate to do well here. Unfortunately, I just don't see how they pull through to the state spots (I'm not even sure if they make finals here) based on the results from their earlier competitions... and what I've learned from the years of band results is that earlier consistent competition results define the direction you are headed when area roles around. It would be very, very impressive if they managed to improve drastically at the last second. Hope to see them at finals.

its not surprising to see that CH is struggling this year, from what I've heard they've been going through a lot of staff changes recently. maybe with some consistency they might be able to get back to their former glory.

Posted
11 hours ago, ohboyilove5aareaf said:

its not surprising to see that CH is struggling this year, from what I've heard they've been going through a lot of staff changes recently. maybe with some consistency they might be able to get back to their former glory.

they will be performing at area 

Posted

I think Midlo’s show is very promising for  area, and they are a strong contender for state. I agree with wtxbd02, even though personal enjoyment doesn’t mean anything competitively, I love their show! They’re definitely showing that they’re more than a one-hit-wonder.

Posted

This area legit has 15+ finals caliber bands

1-4 is pretty locked in to me, the order can flip flop depending on judge's preference.
- Aledo, BC, Midlothian, Richland

That 5th state spot will be interesting, but I'm leaning towards Birdville.

6-8 should probably be some combination of CH, Azle, Grapevine judging off of history, but it's a new year and I've heard CH doesn't have a strong show.

9-10 is a total tossup. 
- You've got CT, Saginaw, Joshua, Brewer, Granbury, AH, Cleburne, Fossil Ridge, probably others?

My actual prediction is:

1. Aledo
2. Richland
3. Midlothian
4. Burleson Centennial 
5. Birdville
6. Grapevine
7. Azle
8. Colleyville Heritage
9. Granbury
10. Joshua
 

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