TrenBS

My predictions post BOA SA: 1. Flower Mound 2. Marcus 3. Vandegrift 4. Hebron (H+V are within a point of each other and interchangeable) 5. Vista Ridge 6. The Woodlands 7. Ronald Reagan 8. Coppell 9. Cedar Ridge 10. Bridgeland 11. Pearland 12. Round Rock 13. Waxahachie 14. Cypress Woods Honestly, in my opinion I think Hebron is going to drop a few placements here, in regards to the show it is the weakest content theyve had in a while (not about the players, although they seem to get beat in woodwind and brass scores by others here), and in the previous year Marcus and Vandegrift (who in my opinion were overall weaker in 2023 compared to this year) beat them, Flower Mound might be a reach given this is a different contest, but their show and the design is simply incredible, and while content/design isn't exactly weighted as heavily as BOA, I believe they will get the win here. Also the Keller and CTJ fall off needs to be studied, they can possibly get into state here, but I really doubt CTJ is in the close bubble since they fell over 2 points behind Round Rock in BOA, much less the SMBC where Wax and CyWoods generally get rewarded more.

It was a leak and wasnt supposed to be public, pretty unfortunate overall but yeah

From what I understand about block scheduling, all that really means is that some days get 2 hours for their band period every 2-3 days as opposed to 1 hour each day, so if band periods are put on the 3 days, thats an extra hour of inside practice without violating any UIL guidelines Could be wrong but thats what I understand from it lol

Middle schools also have to ring in their own budgeting as they are their own separate entities compared to the high schools. They cannot have their earnings be reporting to a completely different non-profit who has their own financial responsibilities or that would raise concerns to what the true budget that is raised from the high school, or at worst can be perceived as a form of money laundering, which sounds ridiculous but this has actually happened to schools before and has led to staff being fired. And Im not saying they reach these numbers through just the district or that they arent actively fundraising to reach these numbers, but the fact stands that they have more money running through the program which better sets them up for success, and again thats NOT saying its the sole reason for their success cause many other schools burn money and still place relatively low to what they SHOULD get according to the money argument. LISD (on both ends) arguably have the best staff top to bottom in their districts, which are the most important factors to a bands success, since teachers dictate the pace a school can learn or progress as a whole, and in my opinion, its impossible to see success with a terrible teacher since student can only move as fast as theyre allowed for marching band. Again clarifying what is being discussed, regardless of where the money is exactly from, LISD has probably some of the largest amounts of funding going through them which allow them to make higher quality shows on average to the rest of the state, which again ISNT saying thats the sole purpose of their success, but is definitely contributing to their dominance in any circuit they compete in, since at some point raw skill isnt enough to place with the likes of Vandegrift, Woodlands, Avon, etc. And yes, bands need more funding from the districts as a whole

This is half true in my opinion, because while the district itself isnt exactly as wealthy as others, each of the 3 major band focused schools in this district report budgets that approach 1 million a year (Marcus on the lowest end), or exceed 1-1.1 million dollars a year (Flower Mound and Hebron), meanwhile schools like Boyd (placement is definitely accurate) only get 1/5 of that a year at best, averaging 150k-200k a year, and that could be on the higher end for this area easily since McKinney is a generally financially wealthy city (you can see all of this publicly since bands are non-profits) Now I dont think budget absolutely correlates to success, or that the Lewisville schools are just handed money, but it definitely plays a solid factor in the quality of facilities, competitive opportunities, instruments, and overall music opportunities to these schools, which definitely correlates on a couple levels to their dominance, but again, they still need to work their butts of to utilize whats given to them, which they absolutely do, I just disagree with the initial statement and COULD come off as rude to actually financially poor districts

Hebron had to deal with a lot of mist but they performed great, and it cleared up already by Boyd, prelims should go without issues now

Totally not advertising, but if yall get a group you should come to Hideaway Pizza off of 380, goated pizza and staff although a bit more pricey if not splitting the ticket, very very good food though

While my predictions are wildy different compared to yours (Wax, Forney, Rockwall/Sachse/Dville) I respect the commitment and the John Horn appreciation, I saw them at area 2018 in their prime, so I hope they can make it back to area finals/state eventually haha

I wouldnt mind some artificial slots (wont happen, of course) in the hyper competitive areas since last year we had 43. Area J, B, and D in particular are leaving out really strong groups with very little wiggle for bands that would realistically place in the 18-25 range, area D is notoriously the most competitive area, usually leaving Cedar (FREAKIN) Ridge, Moe and Gene Johnson, and Bowie, who are all state finalist contending groups MAYBE besides Bowie, but they are still in the 10s nowadays imo. If I were to add 4 (38-42) slots that keep it competitive I would do this: area A: 2 area B: 4-5 area C 4 area D 4-6 area E 5 area F 4 area G 2 area H 4 area I 4 area J 4-5

As a McKinney person, it feels we see rain once or twice a year outside of December where it rains but never snows, the forecast says rain but Id bet money that itll be light sprinkles until later in the evening, in which prelims results will be used. Normally I would be against prelims results being used but realistically its not going to determine much difference outside of ties (less chances) or finalists, which again wont matter if finals is rained out. It would suck since no retreat or anything, but theres lightning on Monday and Sunday, so I would rather have the safety of the students over forcing finals to happen in the scenario it rains a lot

Honestly given where the shows at theres not a whole lot they need to clean in regards to their current level, its mostly just music stuff and some individual moments, but again I dont see them having the time to reach the 4-5 area in regards to cleanliness, but can easily end up being 6th, the same way they can easily be 8th

Saw them at BOA Prosper, I think Boyds getting predicted a little low given that they didn’t have the closer on the field, but I dont see them above 6th tbh Wylie and Prosper are the contenders for 4th tbh, I would like them to tie so they both advance but for now I think Prosper is cleaner than Wylie with more marching and playing demand, but it could go either way and it wouldnt be surprising Braswell I think is getting placed a little high because of BOA success, even in 2023 when they beat Mustang at Midland they beat none of the McKinney schools at area, and even placed 16th at area which even with the argument of UIL funkiness (which does exist), being that far off of finals is telling. But I think they've made major improvements this year and is contending for finals, but they definitely have some dirt that UIL is going to punish Otherwise, I think McKinney High will likely be 6th, and Boyd/WEast will fight for 7th, and Braswell/Rock Hill/Little Elm are my personal contenders for 9/10, but thats more of a shot in the dark

Here is my final list going into region/5A area, and Im fairly confident on the gaps that will dictate the bubbles: 1. Hebron 2. Marcus -- (mini gap)-- 3. Flower Mound ---(gap)--- 4. Prosper 5. Wylie --(mini gap) 6. McKinney High 7. McKinney Boyd 8. Wylie East ---(gap)--- 9. Braswell 10. Little Elm 11. Rock Hill 12. Plano East I think the gaps will hold up, with variation in the gaps being completely up to the judges, and I don't see much movement between gaps happening besides either Braswell moving up or McKinney High moving up. I don't really see Boyd placing below 8th here, even with their less-than-stellar Prosper score compared to 2023, they did not have their closer on the field which certainly docked them points in performance captions when (to my knowledge) every other band had a completed show, as well as the sheets being fundamentally different in regards to prioritizing pure cleanliness and clarity, as opposed to General Effect which is more of the full package of music and visual performance, but again we will have to see how the contest turns out. Placements besides Hebron 1st are just their to dictate gaps, not what I think will personally happen, and I think Hebron will win due to musical difficulty and achievement, if we were to put more judges on visuals, Id say Marcus wins this pretty-handedly.

Gonna preface that Im not saying this cause Im salty about Boyd or McKinney schools missing cause I can totally get why, definitely not salty about those misses since it was a tough bubble But definitely not 100% on a couple if the spots, personally disagree with Wylie top half and North missing for Braswell, but Im not the judges so not gonna call them stupid, show design seems to lead the results here this year with some of the major discrepancies in visual/music execution, but besides my own subjective opinion the finals group makes sense

Rockwall in fact made bottom 6, they do bottom half for the first half of performances and top half for the later performances, but its still very impressive that yall made it regardless

Last post of a list, but this is my drum major salute rankings haha

Erm… not even halfway through Commerces show but they definitely win (if they competed) Wylie was honestly very hard for me to follow visually, those uniforms muddy the form really bad even though they did well, and WWs were dropping on some of those features, but the brass was great, I think they definitely have a shot at finals but not sure if I see them breaking single digits personally, love the show though just disagree on some of the design choices mainly lol

Im not certain if they did, but I got heavy Civ vibes at times, Im waiting for a band to do a Civ show haha

Very well, in regards to BOA for MISD id say yall are probably the best, I love how strong yalls low brass has gotten

I was thoroughly surprised and impressed with North Mesquite, I was definitely low balling them going into today but they played fantastic, definitely going to be strong in area C

This is what Im thinking so far, the Southlake-Rock Hill area feels pretty interchangeable depending on how the judges want to decide performance and visual GE, but I think North could end up on top of these groups if their GE scores go up, I also missed Wylie East and Lone Star, so I suppose this list is a tad preferential over objective opinion, but I think finals will look something like the top 12 and however Wylie performs later

Watching Whitesboro, its crazy just how evolved bands become even like 5 years, in 2019 DTing was only for the big dogs, now its becoming a standard to have many of these bands double tongue at some capacity, very impressed with how much everythings progressed over the years

In a similar vain, the judges should totally have a 2-3 way tie for 4th so we get the representation we deserve from this area at state lol

Just gonna say me and my girlfriend loved the bubbles from Southlake Carroll, they should make finals just for that haha

Dont get me wrong, I loved the aesthetic a lot, but volume wasn’t particularly amazing and feet had a lot of errors, but even then thats holding them to a high standard, this competition is super difficult so were really looking at individuals and diagonals over just simply the forms, and if they went to most areas/state they would be a lock for finals/top half