(Very Early) State Predictions

[jmatthews]

Ok, well, I am new to these prediciton forums and am just trying to learn is all.  So,,,,,,,,,,, can you help me understand?

 

Absolutely. One reason why I think The Woodlands will make finals but not Friendswood has to do with the judging at Area. As Rubisco has mentioned, the judges at Area F were all older, which may have resulted in some bias against The Woodlands. In addition, doing well at area does not necessarily correlate with doing well at state, for reasons I cannot explain.

 

Area F in general is definitely better than I expected, so it would not surprise me to see Friendswood, The Woodlands, and Spring in the finals on Tuesday. 

[knoxisawesome348]

Ok, well, I am new to these prediciton forums and am just trying to learn is all.  So,,,,,,,,,,, can you help me understand?

UIL judging tends to be pretty wacky and it's never guaranteed how any band will do. It's so wacky sometimes, that it's better to rely on certain bands' histories and trends than on previous contest results.

 

For example, at area B in 2012, the 5 state qualifying bands finished in this order:

1. Marcus

2. Hebron

3. Plano East

4. LD Bell (peaked very late in the season)

5. Richland

 

While at state the finishing order was (I think Richland was 13, but I forget):

1. Marcus

2. Hebron

3. LD Bell

---

19. Plano East

 

Plano East could have dropped for a variety of reasons, such as lack of experience at state, peaking early, maybe an unintentional judging bias, etc. It just seems though that it's the veteran bands that tend to make state finals consistently (The Woodlands, Marcus, Hebron, Bowie, etc.).

 

This is just one example, Friendswood has a great chance at making state finals, but you never really know in a class as competitive as 6A. I do guarantee however, that the judges will be all over the place in the scores they hand out for most bands. It just happens unfortunately.

[LKendrick]

Judges biased because they are older......so the only reason that a previous director of bands at Texas Tech Unniversity, a director of the dominant band from the El Paso region for 30 plus years (Who DID BOA type shows while he was there), director of another band that did BOA type shows, director of an esteemed Middle School band and teacher at various other esteemed school districts, and director of a very strong band is because they were biased because of their AGE? I'm sorry.......lol.  I know you some of us LOVE The Woodlands, but that's just insulting to Friendswood and plain wrong, maybe a little biased on your part? I'd like to think all 5 of those judges with very esteemed careers would just give The Woodlands a low number is just not right.  Friendswood's polished, and that does well in UIL.  And I bet if you looked at the Numerical Numbers that decided the ranks, they were probably even closer than the already close ranking 11, 13 score.  We'll see at state, or I guess they'll be biased too......no matter who they are, unless of course The Woodlands wins state and BOA San Antonio.  

 

Ok, well, I am new to these prediciton forums and am just trying to learn is all.  So,,,,,,,,,,, can you help me understand?

 

So my response to you is don't buy the bias BS.  There were two very good bands being judged by a panel of HIGH QUALITY judges.  Certain things they watched and focused on in each performance caused them to rank differently than the other, simple as that.  Visual judges could have found those few people that aren't as solid as the rest of the ensemble, or caught a different part of the ensemble not performing as strongly as the parts other judges were focusing on, or the music judges could have heard something the brass was doing while the other judges might have been focusing on the woodwinds and vice versa.  We take the type of panels we get in Texas for granted, I have NO room, neither do any of us, to criticize them until we've judged over 50 bands in a day, worked long hard careers to earn our place as a judge on a panel, and have gotten rid of our own biases.   So basically, two of the judges, for reasons they focused on during the performances at area finals, thought Friendswood was  a little bit cleaner at Area F Finals last night than The Woodlands.  Simple as that.  

[jmatthews]

Judges biased because they are older......so the only reason that a previous director of bands at Texas Tech Unniversity, a director of the dominant band from the El Paso region for 30 plus years (Who DID BOA type shows while he was there), director of another band that did BOA type shows, director of an esteemed Middle School band and teacher at various other esteemed school districts, and director of a very strong band is because they were biased.  I'm sorry.......lol.  I know you some of us LOVE The Woodlands, but that's just insulting to Friendswood and plain wrong, maybe a little biased on your part? I'd like to think all 5 of those judges with very esteemed careers would just give The Woodlands a low number is just not right.  Friendswood's polished, and that does well in UIL.  And I bet if you looked at the Numerical Numbers that decided the ranks, they were probably even closer than the already close ranking 11, 13 score.  We'll see at state, or I guess they'll be biased too......no matter who they are, unless of course The Woodlands wins state and BOA San Antonio.  

 

 

So my response to you is don't buy the bias BS.  There were two very good bands being judged by a panel of HIGH QUALITY judges.  Certain things they watched and focused on in each performance caused them to rank differently than the other, simple as that.  Visual judges could have found those few people that aren't as solid as the rest of the ensemble, or caught a different part of the ensemble not performing as strongly as the parts other judges were focusing on, or the music judges could have heard something the brass was doing while the other judges might have been focusing on the woodwinds and vice versa.  We take the type of panels we get in Texas for granted, I have NO room, neither do any of us, to criticize them until we've judged over 50 bands in a day, worked long hard careers to earn our place as a judge on a panel, and have gotten rid of our own biases.   So basically, two of the judges, for reasons they focused on during the performances at area finals, thought Friendswood was  a little bit cleaner at Area F Finals last night than The Woodlands.  Simple as that.  

 

I apologize if I came off as critical of the judges. That wasn't my intent. They have an incredibly difficult job. In addition, marching band is judged subjectively. All of this leads to divergent results between different contests. This divergence is not the fault of the judges; it is the nature of marching band. 

 

Friendswood was very clean at Area, and they deserved to win. I certainly don't want to diminish the results of any band. My point is this: Area results simply don't correlate to state results, as knoxisawesome348 showed. Things change, things stay the same between Area and state. 

[LKendrick]

I never disagreed with that, that's a given.  What I absolutely do not agree with, buy into, or believe is saying that a judge is biased because they're older.  What, do you have to be fresh out of drum corps or on staff to understand or appreciate a little more BOA/GE oriented show?   HECK no.  UIL is how well a band marched and played, period, and a few of them thought Friendswood did, a few of them didn't.  Simple as that.  

 

I apologize if I came off as critical of the judges. That wasn't my intent. They have an incredibly difficult job. In addition, marching band is judged subjectively. All of this leads to divergent results between different contests. This divergence is not the fault of the judges; it is the nature of marching band. 

 

Friendswood was very clean at Area, and they deserved to win. I certainly don't want to diminish the results of any band. My point is this: Area results simply don't correlate to state results, as knoxisawesome348 showed. Things change, things stay the same between Area and state. 

[jmatthews]

I never disagreed with that, that's a given.  What I absolutely do not agree with, buy into, or believe is saying that a judge is biased because they're older.  What, do you have to be fresh out of drum corps or on staff to understand or appreciate a little more BOA/GE oriented show?   HECK no.  UIL is how well a band marched and played, period, and a few of them thought Friendswood did, a few of them didn't.  Simple as that.  

 

Ok. Honestly, I just gave that reason as an additional example to explain my point. If Rubisco cares to expound on this point, he may be able to answer your questions. When I wrote about the judging bias, I can honestly say that I did not intend for my words to mean that "older judges = huge bias." 

[LKendrick]

Ok. Honestly, I just gave that reason as an additional example to explain my point. If Rubisco cares to expound on this point, he may be able to answer your questions. When I wrote about the judging bias, I can honestly say that I did not intend for my words to mean that "older judges = huge bias." 

 

Was just going off of your earlier post:

 

 

One reason why I think The Woodlands will make finals but not Friendswood has to do with the judging at Area. As Rubisco has mentioned, the judges at Area F were all older, which may have resulted in some bias against The Woodlands.

[jmatthews]

Was just going off of your earlier post:

 

Let's move on from the biased judges idea. One reason why The Woodlands could pass up Friendswood is that TWHS has more potential for growth in the next 8-9 days. If multiple strong bands do this, Friendswood could find themselves out of the finals. I love Friendswood's shows nearly every year though. So don't chalk this up to bias towards The Woodlands. 

[LKendrick]

Let's move on from the biased judges idea. One reason why The Woodlands could pass up Friendswood is that TWHS has more potential for growth in the next 8-9 days. If multiple strong bands do this, Friendswood could find themselves out of the finals. I love Friendswood's shows nearly every year though. So don't chalk this up to bias towards The Woodlands. 

 

I completely, 100%, totally agree with you there, trust me, my comments were all on the subject of judging at Area F, not to state and beyond.  I've been around long enough to know when a band still has plenty of growing to do.  The Woodlands is always a late bloomer, and that's after they do pretty dang well the rest of the season as well.  I don't have a dog in the fight, don't worry.  

 

Best of luck to both bands.  Excited to see how The Woodlands show has progressed since Conroe, I don't have anything against them, my favorite marching season moment last year was them bringing home the Eagle.   

[Lynn]

Something that I was told by a director and it really helped me understand the UIL prelims and finals better:

 

It's not really the judge's job to rank every band there.  Is band 18 better than band 22?  Who knows - but the prelims judge needs to say these are the 10 that need to go to finals because these are the 10 best ( in whatever order)

 

For finals - it's not really the judge's job to say that number 4 is better than number 5 or whatever - it's really to just make sure the right top '6' or top '5' go to state.  That's why at the UIL finals announcement they don't announce who 'won' - they announce who is going to state in RANDOM ORDER.  

 

So then when the bands GET to state - that's when the ranking is supposed to happen.  

[Rhapsodie]

Something that I was told by a director and it really helped me understand the UIL prelims and finals better:

 

It's not really the judge's job to rank every band there.  Is band 18 better than band 22?  Who knows - but the prelims judge needs to say these are the 10 that need to go to finals because these are the 10 best ( in whatever order)

 

For finals - it's not really the judge's job to say that number 4 is better than number 5 or whatever - it's really to just make sure the right top '6' or top '5' go to state.  That's why at the UIL finals announcement they don't announce who 'won' - they announce who is going to state in RANDOM ORDER.  

 

So then when the bands GET to state - that's when the ranking is supposed to happen.  

I see where you are coming from, but your reasoning does not make sense logically with how the judging system works. After each band performs, the judges provide a score for that band which is handed in and tabulated. They are not allowed to change the score, nor converse with other judges; and they really have no idea who advanced. It is not like they sit down for coffee and discuss the matter of who should go on and who should not after all bands have performed (though how cute would that be?!) They may not agree with who is the "right" top 4-7 to go to state, which often happens. However, it is the overall point system that determines this. So I disagree with you about state being "when the ranking is supposed to happen". From Area prelims to Area finals to State prelims to State finals, the bands are ranked in the same manner. The State Marching Band Contest appears more definitive because that's each band's last time to perform, the road stops there. They do not announce winners at the Area Contest because Area is simply a precursor to State, which you nicely explained. However, that does not mean there was not a 1st-whatever place. The judges are always ranking - it is the system that decides who advances/wins in the end.

 

I think you brought this up (maybe?) to explain why certain bands beat other bands at Area, but lose to them at State. What a gray area for discussion! I think the reason is more attributed to the fact that bands sound different in a huge space like the Alamodome, and the judges are sitting very high up, watching forms more clearly and from an entirely whole perspective. A chord heard outside might sound nice, but in such a resonant, enclosed space, might sound superbly glorious or might point out a band's more subtle flaws. Who knows! Things change and things stay the same, I suppose. Now factor in different judges, biases, perhaps different musical standards, etc... and you have yourself one smokin' hot mess. UIL State prelims are the epitome of the term HAM.   

[stoli]

Something that I was told by a director and it really helped me understand the UIL prelims and finals better:

 

It's not really the judge's job to rank every band there.  Is band 18 better than band 22?  Who knows - but the prelims judge needs to say these are the 10 that need to go to finals because these are the 10 best ( in whatever order)

 

For finals - it's not really the judge's job to say that number 4 is better than number 5 or whatever - it's really to just make sure the right top '6' or top '5' go to state.  That's why at the UIL finals announcement they don't announce who 'won' - they announce who is going to state in RANDOM ORDER.  

 

So then when the bands GET to state - that's when the ranking is supposed to happen.  

 

Interesting perspective.  But from the score sheets given at Area, I would say this explanation doesn't really fit.  There are placements given.  This might better fit the Region competition rather than Area or State.

[Jackson1]

Where did you find the score sheets? I can't find them. Thx

[Lynn]

I know everyone is given a score - I was just assuming this is how the judges are to rank the bands.  

If it was truly a 1st/ 2nd/ 3rd place kind of thing - I'd think that they'd at least announce them that way instead of in 'random order'.

 

This will be my first time going to watch a state competition, I've seen a lot more of the BOA judging and that makes a lot more sense to me.  
 

[ThatDrummerBoi]

well little cypress mauriceville is a preety good 4a and been to state like once 7 years ago. Can't wait to see how they do. "This performance was 2 weeks ago worst performance yet"

[ThatDrummerBoi]

well little cypress mauriceville is a preety good 4a and been to state like once 7 years ago. Can't wait to see how they do. "This performance was 2 weeks ago worst performance yet"

[Brassman82]

Has anybody seen Duncanville's show? How are they compared to other top bands in the state?

[Smuffin]

[

I was at Mesquite yesterday watching bands for Area C. And there were only two bands that really stuck out to me. One was Coppell, and the other...Duncanville. They tied for 1st place in Finals at yesterday's performance. I thought Duncanville's marching was far more difficult and clean. I also thought Duncanville's music was more difficult as well. I mean, I might not know what I'm talking about. But in my opinion, Duncanville is dangerous.

quote name="Brassman82" post="90190" timestamp="1414505801]Has anybody seen Duncanville's show? How are they compared to other top bands in the state?

Sounds like you already know

[Happy4321]

This is what i was told a few years ago, and again this year by some directors concerning Area Judging. The prelim judges are there to get the best 10 bands in finals. There are so many bands playing prelims over a long, long day, that it is hard to get exact placements correct. Sometimes earlier bands might be a little lower scored because the judges have to have somewhere to go with points throughout the day, its just the nature of the beast.  Area FINALS are so much easier to judge right off the bat because there are fewer bands in a shorter period of time. They are given a placement in both prelims and finals because there is natural placements when you have scores, but finals of course is what matters. 

Lynn, on 27 Oct 2014 - 06:29, said:

 

Something that I was told by a director and it really helped me understand the UIL prelims and finals better:

 

It's not really the judge's job to rank every band there.  Is band 18 better than band 22?  Who knows - but the prelims judge needs to say these are the 10 that need to go to finals because these are the 10 best ( in whatever order)

 

For finals - it's not really the judge's job to say that number 4 is better than number 5 or whatever - it's really to just make sure the right top '6' or top '5' go to state.  That's why at the UIL finals announcement they don't announce who 'won' - they announce who is going to state in RANDOM ORDER.  

 

So then when the bands GET to state - that's when the ranking is supposed to happen.  

[Kruzer1]

What happened to Bell?

[itsstephenyo]

I'm pretty sure they announced who won at Area B.

 

It went from Alternate, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st

[Kruzer1]

You're right.  I saw Bell was alternate.  I was just surprised they didn't advance because I thought they were generally considered a sure thing (on par with Hebron or Marcus).  I didn't know if something went wrong or if they were just a victim of a tough area.

[drumlinerox]

I think these threads are interesting - kind of like talking about college football teams.  If one is a "storied" program - then they continue to be . . . just because.  Their could be some real good teams, but b/c their in a non-power conference - they just don't get the attention (case in point - UCF beating Baylor last year in the Fiesta bowl - or W. Virginia, TCU and Boise winning their big bowl games in the past against power conference teams).  

 

Same with bands - the names that are always thrown out are Marcus, Hebron, Bell, Woodlands, Bowie, etc.

 

But I'm curious why a band like Coppell is rarely, if ever mentioned?  With the exception of 1 year, they've made it to San Antonio and Finals every year since making the jump to 5A (now 6A) in 2000.  And those showings include a 3rd place finish, 2 5th's and a 7th in Finals. Actually finished 3rd in Prelims in 2010 but got bumped down to 5th in Finals - b/c they use different judges in Finals -vs- Prelims??

 

I think ANY band that consistently makes Finals in San Antonio has a shot - at least to medal.

[drumlinerox]

I think these threads are interesting - kind of like talking about college football teams.  If one is a "storied" program - then they continue to be . . . just because.  Their could be some real good teams, but b/c their in a non-power conference - they just don't get the attention (case in point - UCF beating Baylor last year in the Fiesta bowl - or W. Virginia, TCU and Boise winning their big bowl games in the past against power conference teams).  

 

Same with bands - the names that are always thrown out are Marcus, Hebron, Bell, Woodlands, Bowie, etc.

 

But I'm curious why a band like Coppell is rarely, if ever mentioned?  With the exception of 1 year, they've made it to San Antonio and Finals every year since making the jump to 5A (now 6A) in 2000.  And those showings include a 3rd place finish, 2 5th's and a 7th in Finals. Actually finished 3rd in Prelims in 2010 but got bumped down to 5th in Finals - b/c they use different judges in Finals -vs- Prelims??

 

I think ANY band that consistently makes Finals in San Antonio has a shot - at least to medal.

Re-Phrase - meant to state they've made it to UIL State Competition every year except one since becoming 5A (now 6A) in 2000.  And have made Finals in SA 4 years in a row . . . 

[jmatthews]

I think these threads are interesting - kind of like talking about college football teams.  If one is a "storied" program - then they continue to be . . . just because.  Their could be some real good teams, but b/c their in a non-power conference - they just don't get the attention (case in point - UCF beating Baylor last year in the Fiesta bowl - or W. Virginia, TCU and Boise winning their big bowl games in the past against power conference teams).  

 

Same with bands - the names that are always thrown out are Marcus, Hebron, Bell, Woodlands, Bowie, etc.

 

But I'm curious why a band like Coppell is rarely, if ever mentioned?  With the exception of 1 year, they've made it to San Antonio and Finals every year since making the jump to 5A (now 6A) in 2000.  And those showings include a 3rd place finish, 2 5th's and a 7th in Finals. Actually finished 3rd in Prelims in 2010 but got bumped down to 5th in Finals - b/c they use different judges in Finals -vs- Prelims??

 

I think ANY band that consistently makes Finals in San Antonio has a shot - at least to medal.

 

I agree with you, and I think more discussion is needed on the subject. I think more people should watch videos of other bands. It's easy to assume Marcus, Bell, Hebron, etc are good (and they are), but I agree that people should pay more attention to bands like Coppell.