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Posted

Colleyville looks extremely lackluster this season. Not looking like a state contender, show is decent but execution is critically lacking compared to past years. Grapevine seems to continue their upward trajectory- will definitely be a band to look out for. Aledo, as always, seems to be 2 steps ahead of everyone else. 

Posted
5 hours ago, tonygunk said:

Top ten predictions after another week of comps!

1. Aledo (never gonna change)

2. Cen10 (can finally say their brass almost sounds worthy of area finals, percussion and visuals still get them 2nd imo)

3. Midlo (still a powerhouse with a fun show. Fantastic sounding soloists)

4. Birdville (beat richland at don hanna yesterday and took half the captions. Did not expect)

5. Richland (lackluster performance at don hanna but you would have to be an idiot to think they are missing state)

— state cutoff

6. grapevine (been a little quiet but their whole show has been on the field for a few weeks cleaning season is gonna be really good for them)

7. Colleyville heritage (been sounding a bit disappointing and placed kinda low at MMI)

8. saginaw (looks great right now and beat CT and fossil ridge at usbands, always been a saginaw fan)

9. brewer (brass sounds stellar especially on their feature)

10. Fossil Ridge (still a solid area finals band it seems)

Solid Lineup, but I think Birdville, Richland, and Grapevine could all be interchangeable. To hard to tell yet.

Posted
2 minutes ago, bandisfun124 said:

With all things considered, this is my top ten:

1. Aledo (their show isn't up to the usual standard, could be beaten)

2. midlo (supposedly still really good)

3. cen10 (brass actually half decent now, but percussion will continue to hard carry their music scores)

4. Richland (freaking goated)

5. grapevine (they've had their whole show on field for weeks, and while it's extremely boring, it will probably be clean)

6. Colleyville (can probably clean up their show after some recent bad performances)

7. Saginaw (looking incredible, beat Chisholm Trail and Fossil Ridge at USBands)

8. fossil ridge (not that bad, also not super impressive)

9. brewer (brass is good this year, can probably come back)

10. Chisolm Trail/Granbury (CT- kinda average, Granbury- looking really good rn)

 

One thing to note is that there is now a content score on the judge sheets, which could hurt some of the historically top bands that commonly march an easy show. It will be interesting to see. It seems like a lot of bands in this area are having a down year, and the ones just out of finals are having a really good year. This area should be very exciting to watch.

i agree!!!! i would place richland sososos much higher and richlands show is so good I watched them at DH and they were on point! . Sucks for birdville tho after what happened last year I cant see them making area or even area finals! overall good ranking

1st aledo
2nd richland
3rd midlo
4th brewer
5th cen10
6th saginaw
7th CH
8th grapevine
9th fossil ridge
10th granbury/cleburne. 

Posted
1 hour ago, ti-84 said:

i agree!!!! i would place richland sososos much higher and richlands show is so good I watched them at DH and they were on point! . Sucks for birdville tho after what happened last year I cant see them making area or even area finals! overall good ranking

1st aledo
2nd richland
3rd midlo
4th brewer
5th cen10
6th saginaw
7th CH
8th grapevine
9th fossil ridge
10th granbury/cleburne. 

Birdville beat Richland at Don Hanna, so I don't understand your logic for them not making area at all. It might have been the wonky judging at DH that put them ahead, but I don't think that Birdville won't be making area finals. Here would be my current rankings:

 

1. Aledo
2.Cen10
3. Midlo
4. Richland
5. Grapevine
6. Birdville
7. Azle
8. Colleyville Heritage
9. Saginaw
10. Brewer/Chisholm Trail/Fossil Ridge/Granbury

Posted
Just now, lunareclipse18 said:

I guess so, 4-7,8 is really interchangable right now because the results from both DH and Mckinney were super wack. We'll just have to see with this weekend's competitions.

honestly i can agree. grapevines been looking NICE too its hard for me putting them out of state but what happens happens. birdville marching festival will really clear stuff up i hope, even with the bisd peeps only being exhibition

Posted
27 minutes ago, tonygunk said:

Richland top 4 is wild bro accept reality. Pickrell is about to go on his judge firing arc 

nah richland will probably go on to make state finals honest better then bands like lone star and aledo. 

Posted
3 hours ago, RonaldReaganOfficial said:

I truly believe that birdville has a decent shot at making State this year. Even if Don Hanna was weird, they still won a lot of the captions. It's highly likely They're making finals, if not top five.

this is absolutely true  (Coming from someone who goes to an 5a area f school) I think we can expect big things coming from birdville, placing them out of area is nasty work especially with there performance at DH  

Posted

hmmm how r we feeling about 30/31 bands make area this year? means 6 state spots with 12 final spots (not including bville after what happened)

Posted
3 hours ago, ti-84 said:

hmmm how r we feeling about 30/31 bands make area this year? means 6 state spots with 12 final spots (not including bville after what happened)

possible, but I think it would mean 5 spots instead of 6

Posted

Regarding how many bands advance, I looked it up (because I always forget) and here's what I found.
Per UIL 1106 (k)-(2):

Quote

Should fifteen or more bands qualify for advancement in a single conference for the area contest, one band for each five bands that qualified for advancement to the contest shall be certified for advancement to the state contest.

15 or more will likely qualify for area F. That kicks into gear the rule that every 5 area qualifiers create a state advancer spot. 30 qualifiers divided by 5 (the rule) is 6 state spots.

As ti-84 mentions, 30-34 area qualifiers would also make 12 finals spots (per UIL 1106 [h]-[4], same link as above).

 

Edit:

CharterBusLover already mentioned that for 30 bands 

Quote

Polytech would need to get a 1 at region💔

 

Posted
7 hours ago, Anthony V said:

Regarding possible state advancers and area finalists...

-Aledo and Burleson Centennial are definitely our locks. I say that not necessarily because I'm predicting that they will place above the other bands, but because these programs are just so darn consistent. I understand the sentiment that BC's ensemble sound can feel underwhelming compared to other groups, but they are a well-rounded program and their program's pedagogical style seems to be to achieve that technical balance as fast as possible without simply peaking. 

-I think it's reasonable to not consider Colleyville Heritage a state advancer without more data, but there's also four weeks until area. Also, they have a respectable staff. If they were dealt a bad hand this year, they might just need time to navigate through it (assuming the possibility).

For most of the other possible state advancers, I think we don't have enough information.

-Following Burleson Centennial, Midlothian is probably the closest thing to a lock right now. Their performance at Mansfield POC (27 Sep), putting them narrowly (0.07) below Walnut Grove, is a positive indicator for them. Last week they did not compete because they contest-hosted. We will get more data on them this coming weekend from their appearance at BOA Midland.

-Next, Richland is definitely a wild card. Their USBands Saginaw (27 Sep) finish above Lake Belton (13th at 2024 UIL state prelims to Richland's 15th) in finals suggested a top 5 finish here. The Don Hanna (4 Oct) results overall were unexpected, and Richland's low placement in prelims and finals (6th/8th) was one of the more surprising pieces. Add to that the fact that we have no more contest data from them until area prelims results are announced. This weekend they are co-hosting BISD (exhibition only), and then they fall off the radar until 1 Nov. They could end up in the bottom half of area finals, or they could slam it into gear for a comeback and take 2nd place over BC (cf. Area F 2023). I just don't know, and honestly it could be mostly up to their choices  in the next few weeks rather than inertial factors as to what will transpire.

-Birdville is also to some degree a wild card because of the Don Hanna results. There, they finished 5th in both prelims and finals (both over Richland) and snagged a few captions music/ensemble captions. Their finals finish (9th) the week before at Wylie Marching Invitational was, by comparison, more of a beige flag. In prelims they fared better (7th), and they were almost tied with JJ Pearce (6th), which is more consistent with the results we see the following week from Don Hanna. As with Richland, they are co-hosting the BISD contest next week (exhibition only). But unlike Richland, we get more data from Birdville before area as they attend the Duncanville contest (18 Oct).

-Grapevine is another possible, as some people have mentioned. They placed 15th in prelims at McKinney (4 Oct) -- and that's all we have so far. That will change over the next couple of weeks at they compete at BISD and BOA Waco. 

Next, some of the possible finalists.

-If there is to be any unexpected surprise from the bottom half, I would bet on it being Saginaw. They already made a surprise finals showing as USBands (7th in finals above Fossil Ridge [and Cleburne]).

-Speaking of, Fossil Ridge (and maybe Cleburne) is also a possible finalist, depending on how they recover from their low placements early season.

-And Azle has become a consistent finalist for this area in the past few years. I would expect to see Azle over Fossil Ridge, and as of now over Colleyville Heritage.

-But I would retain CH as a possible finalist for now. We will see results from them at BISD this weekend, as well as at STL super regional the next weekend. If they are still towards the bottom of prelims at BISD, then I would lean against the possibility. I don't predict that they will make finals at either of these contests, but if they do, then I fully expect to see them at area F finals, and if hypothetically they made finals at STL, I think we are back to talking about them as a possible state advancer. Otherwise, I don't know how I could reasonably improve their probabilities.

-Finally, some weaker data: Brewer swept the Godley Wildcat contest (27 Sep), and Chisholm Trail came only a couple points under Boswell at BOA DFW (Oct 4).

Rough groupings in rough order:

Locks. Aledo and Burleson Centennial

Plausible State Advancers. Midlothian, Richland, Birdville, Grapevine

(Some) Plausible Finalists. Azle, Saginaw, Brewer, Chisholm Trail, Cleburne, Fossil Ridge, Colleyville Heritage

There are almost certainly arguments to be made for other possible finalists. I confess to not doing research on all of them. I am lazy.

Your information about Birdville at Wylie is incorrect. They were 9th in prelims (behind Lovejoy, 8th, and Plano Sr., 6th) and moved up to 7th, coming in just behind J.J. Pearce (7th in prelims, 6th in finals). 

Posted
1 hour ago, bandisfun124 said:

Your information about Birdville at Wylie is incorrect. They were 9th in prelims (behind Lovejoy, 8th, and Plano Sr., 6th) and moved up to 7th, coming in just behind J.J. Pearce (7th in prelims, 6th in finals). 

Good catch. Looks like I mixed up prelims and finals. When I get a chance, I'll go back and fix that.

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