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Posted

 Finals Predictions in alphabetical order (With top five bolded)

 

Anahuac

🥉Atlanta

Commerce

Liberty-Eylau

Mineola

Orangefield

Queen City

Quitman

🥇Redwater

🥈Winnsboro

 

Quick Thoughts: Definitely want to put Winnsboro first with the success they had this season, but think Redwater will win. Some of this area is visible in terms of competition results, and some is not, so Commerce could be anywhere from like 4th-8th IMO. Not super sure of bubble bands, maybe Chisum? Prairiland? Grand Saline? Top 5 have had some head to head competition all season, with Queen City and Quitman on the outside of the top 5, looking out.

 

Posted
14 minutes ago, WanderingTraveler said:

 Finals Predictions in alphabetical order (With top five bolded)

 

Anahuac

🥉Atlanta

Commerce

Liberty-Eylau

Mineola

Orangefield

Queen City

Quitman

🥇Redwater

🥈Winnsboro

 

Quick Thoughts: Definitely want to put Winnsboro first with the success they had this season, but think Redwater will win. Some of this area is visible in terms of competition results, and some is not, so Commerce could be anywhere from like 4th-8th IMO. Not super sure of bubble bands, maybe Chisum? Prairiland? Grand Saline? Top 5 have had some head to head competition all season, with Queen City and Quitman on the outside of the top 5, looking out.

 

That's the wildest thing I've seen in a long time leaving Mineola out of the top 3. We shall see tomorrow.

Posted
22 minutes ago, SwarmFan1 said:

That's the wildest thing I've seen in a long time leaving Mineola out of the top 3. We shall see tomorrow.

Mineola could sweep this competition and I wouldn't bat an eye...They are the reigning state champion, so they deserve that respect, but this is also competing against the reigning silver and bronze medalist, and a very strong year for Winnsboro. Excited to see how this shakes out tomorrow.

Posted
55 minutes ago, WanderingTraveler said:

Mineola could sweep this competition and I wouldn't bat an eye...They are the reigning state champion, so they deserve that respect, but this is also competing against the reigning silver and bronze medalist, and a very strong year for Winnsboro. Excited to see how this shakes out tomorrow.

Until I see Mineola get beat at Area it's hard to go against them, I can't remember but hasn't Mineola won Area like 6-7 years in a row?  Yes, I think Winnsboro has a good program but I don't think they have really been tested in competition. Yes, they beat Redwater at Finals in Mineola but that's really the only big victory they have this season and a good majority of people I know still don't know how Winnsboro was able to do that based on what they have seen. 

Of course anything can take place tomorrow, I know last year it was as close as it can get with Mineola winning by 1 or 2 pts I think and 3 points separated the Top 3. 

I think it's gonna be a battle between Mineola and Redwater with Atlanta maybe sticking their head in there and then Winnsboro/Queen City/Commerce battling for those last 2 spots. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, TexasStrangers said:

Until I see Mineola get beat at Area it's hard to go against them, I can't remember but hasn't Mineola won Area like 6-7 years in a row?  Yes, I think Winnsboro has a good program but I don't think they have really been tested in competition. Yes, they beat Redwater at Finals in Mineola but that's really the only big victory they have this season and a good majority of people I know still don't know how Winnsboro was able to do that based on what they have seen. 

Of course anything can take place tomorrow, I know last year it was as close as it can get with Mineola winning by 1 or 2 pts I think and 3 points separated the Top 3. 

I think it's gonna be a battle between Mineola and Redwater with Atlanta maybe sticking their head in there and then Winnsboro/Queen City/Commerce battling for those last 2 spots. 

Very true, and they have won state 4 of the 5 past years. I agree with your assessment of the top 5, but again, hard to say till day of. This area is extremely competitive which is why they typically have a great degree of success when they get to 3A state. I just think its close ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, WanderingTraveler said:

Very true, and they have won state 4 of the 5 past years. I agree with your assessment of the top 5, but again, hard to say till day of. This area is extremely competitive which is why they typically have a great degree of success when they get to 3A state. I just think its close ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

As for me I am going based on what I have seen in person. I have seen many of the shows more than once. I would agree that AREA C regardless if it's 3A or 4A is very competitive. Where else are you going to say the Top 3 from last year came from the same Area. 

I just hate that there is going to be at least 1 school that made it to State last year that will not get to go this year. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, TexasStrangers said:

As for me I am going based on what I have seen in person. I have seen many of the shows more than once. I would agree that AREA C regardless if it's 3A or 4A is very competitive. Where else are you going to say the Top 3 from last year came from the same Area. 

I just hate that there is going to be at least 1 school that made it to State last year that will not get to go this year. 

I mean fair point, and I have only seen each of these bands once this year, so I will take your word for it...but again, I mentioned I wouldn't be surprised with the order of the top 4 being any-which-way. 

As far as the area strength, yeah this is a common thing that I feel like needs to be addressed at some level. Area J for 6A (Hebron, Flower Mound, Marcus) and Area H for 5A (Cedar Park, Rouse, Leander) are just two examples of super top heavy areas that consistently place at the top of their respective state competitions. Obviously the point of area is to send the best from the area to state, but I feel like the current "1 band per 5 first-divisions" is somewhat stale and could be adjusted.

Posted

My prediction for tomorrow.  

1. Mineola 

2. Redwater

3. Winnsboro

4. Atlanta

5. Commerce

 

However, I believe the "top half" draw order could significantly alter this.   A previous poster said Mineola hasn't been beat in area in quite awhile.    Redwater took prelims two years ago I believe and Atlanta took prelims last year.   Mineola has prevailed on finals.   The gap has narrowed, but there is still a gap. 
 

Safe travels to everyone. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Kmt1 said:

 

My prediction for tomorrow.  

1. Mineola 

2. Redwater

3. Winnsboro

4. Atlanta

5. Commerce

 

However, I believe the "top half" draw order could significantly alter this.   A previous poster said Mineola hasn't been beat in area in quite awhile.    Redwater took prelims two years ago I believe and Atlanta took prelims last year.   Mineola has prevailed on finals.   The gap has narrowed, but there is still a gap. 
 

Safe travels to everyone. 

Yes, was referring to Finals. Yes, Mineola has been beat at Prelims. I don't take a lot of stock in Prelims because everyone has been beaten before even Celina last year. Yes, you get some good feedback and then adjust for Finals where typically bands bring their best. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, WanderingTraveler said:

I mean fair point, and I have only seen each of these bands once this year, so I will take your word for it...but again, I mentioned I wouldn't be surprised with the order of the top 4 being any-which-way. 

As far as the area strength, yeah this is a common thing that I feel like needs to be addressed at some level. Area J for 6A (Hebron, Flower Mound, Marcus) and Area H for 5A (Cedar Park, Rouse, Leander) are just two examples of super top heavy areas that consistently place at the top of their respective state competitions. Obviously the point of area is to send the best from the area to state, but I feel like the current "1 band per 5 first-divisions" is somewhat stale and could be adjusted.

I really don't know how you could fix how some Areas are just insanely stronger than others. Yes, you can redraw the lines every two years but that doesn't change a lot of things for the great band programs. 

I know there was talk about creating the new rule where if your AREA medaled that the following season you would get to send an additional school from your AREA to State. Which if that was the case for this past season then at 3A Area C instead of sending 5 schools to state you would have been able to send 8 which you could make somewhat of an argument that there could be 8 schools deserving to go to State.  I think though this argument got tabled for future discussions or rejected.

I'm sure probably somewhere down the road there will be a change or two that will happen to all competitions. 

Posted
1 minute ago, TexasStrangers said:

I really don't know how you could fix how some Areas are just insanely stronger than others. Yes, you can redraw the lines every two years but that doesn't change a lot of things for the great band programs. 

I know there was talk about creating the new rule where if your AREA medaled that the following season you would get to send an additional school from your AREA to State. Which if that was the case for this past season then at 3A Area C instead of sending 5 schools to state you would have been able to send 8 which you could make somewhat of an argument that there could be 8 schools deserving to go to State.  I think though this argument got tabled for future discussions or rejected.

I'm sure probably somewhere down the road there will be a change or two that will happen to all competitions. 

Yeah this unfortunately didn't do through, I thought it was a good idea.

Posted
1 hour ago, WanderingTraveler said:

Very true, and they have won state 4 of the 5 past years. I agree with your assessment of the top 5, but again, hard to say till day of. This area is extremely competitive which is why they typically have a great degree of success when they get to 3A state. I just think its close ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

Mineola is not going to get beat by anyone in 3A this year. I don’t think all but the top 3 or 4 4As from this area could beat them. I’ve seen these bands. Fine programs for sure, but Mineola does band different. It’s not going to be close.

Posted

Well. Gonna be a fun day seeing who makes it out of this area. Can’t lie looking for redwater to make some redemption in the loss to winnsboro at Mineola. Really think draw of finals hurt us there. Hope all have a good run and judges score with fairness and accuracy. I’ve always said it is subjective and it still is but there are some rubrics that they apply to scoring. Anyway. Hope all have a safe travels to the event and let’s get ready to watch some of the best 3A bands in the state of Texas. 

Posted

Would love to see prelim score sheet for this as I enjoy this hamburger from DQ.

Contest has an eerie feeling like last year with Redwater and Atlanta going after Mineola. Curious to see if Mineola can pull it off again. However, i got a feeling we might see a new Champ tonight. Anything can happen in finals! 

Posted

Final Results 

10th Orangefield 

9th Anahuac

8th Grand Saline 

7th Quitman 

6th Winnsboro 

5th Queen City -Advances to State 

4th Commerce - Advances to State 

3rd Atlanta - Advances to State 

2nd Redwater - Advances to State 

1st Mineola - Advances to Stat

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