tastiestbiscuit123

Same to Freeman, getting 4th in their second year! On that note, there will for sure be a new State Finalist this year. Gatesville, who got 8th at State last year, did not advance to State this year. They were one point away.

I know Finalists will be announced in a bit, please keep me updated, cause I'm not in the Denton area.

That's an interesting take, and I never really considered that. I do know that the Vista Ridge Invitational was the first time Gatesville had put its final movement on the field, so there could be some credence to that statement. I'm sure we'll see on Saturday (or if the contest gets postponed).

Springtown's been doing well this year, from their drumline contests to Melissa. I'm confident in saying that if they don't make State, they'll be pretty darn close. Just depends on how competitive the rest of the Area is.

Not just with Fredericksburg, but I'm also thinking Legacy Ranch is going to be a Finals contender. I always forget how truly bloody the State contest gets lol

Marble Falls got 21st at State last year and a 2 at Region this year. Anything is possible in marching band 👀

I do have to agree with this, but Gatesville did take the music caption over Legacy Ranch at the Vista Ridge Invitational. Also, at Springtown last year, Alvarado got 7th and Gatesville got 8th, and this year they both bumped up a spot. Gatesville's competitions this year didn't really see them be able to compare themselves to other bands in the Area, so it's tough for me to rank them, just like with Richland and Stephenville.

I think people are putting too much hype into Eagle Mountain, personally (including me early on), just because there's this precedent that in a school's second year (and sometimes even first), they tend to do really well (take Panther Creek, Lake Belton, West Plains, and even Legacy Ranch from what I've seen, possibly including Freeman too, etc.). However, just because it's a precedent doesn't mean it's going to happen. Unlike Panther Creek, Legacy Ranch, Lake Belton, and the others, Eagle Mountain didn't make Area Finals their first year (while every other band did), and additionally was not beating State Qualifiers and State Finalists at Invitationals and Previews this year; they weren't even beating Area Finalists (take Don Hanna, where I heard they got 3rd in Class 4A to Krum and Kennedale, only one of which was an Area Finalist last year, the other placing 14th). I'm not saying they won't make Finals (once again, I could see any of those 16 bands making it), I'm just saying I don't think they're gonna jump from 24th last year to 4th this year, but rather that they're going to be approaching Finals, and near the bottom of it if they make it. I mentioned this about a week ago, but I think we need to give Eagle Mountain another year or two before they qualify for State. They just need to see the rigor of what Area Finals is like to be able to prepare for it.

Overall, I'm confident in the top 5 or so places. The other 7 are just me taking results from this year and trying my best to compare bands when they haven't competed against each other yet (like Stephenville and Richland). I'm also going off the fact that the bands all stay the same with respect to one another, when in actuality, it's been a week and a half since the last contest, and each band improves at a different pace than the others.

They started strong at the Wildcat Preview by beating every 4A besides Alvarado, but then at Springtown, they only made it to Finals because there were 10 bands bigger than 3A (every judge in Prelims gave them 10th Place). Because of how Springtown did at other contests, if they had competed, they would've made Finals, knocking Castleberry out. To me, Castleberry is repeating its history, but differently; last year was a different year for Castleberry. For the first time since the UIL began publicly announcing Prelims and Finals results, Castleberry experienced a decline between the two rounds, when making Finals. In 2004, 2006, and 2012, they stayed in the same place between the two rounds. In 2008, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2023, they went up. In 2024, they went down for the first time. Additionally, Castleberry has been characterized by its hills and valleys for two and a half decades: They made State in 2000, even making State Finals. They did not make State in 2002 (not aware if they even made Area Finals). They made State in 2004. They made Area Finals in 2006, placing 6th. They made Area Finals in 2008, going from 9th to 7th. They did not advance to Area Finals in 2010, placing 12th (only 10 advanced to Finals). They made State in 2012. They made Area Finals in 2014, going from 9th to 7th. They made State in 2016. They made State in 2018. They skipped the 2020 season. They made Area Finals in 2021, going from 12th to 9th. They did not advance to Area Finals in 2022, placing 15th. They made State in 2023. They made Area Finals in 2024, going from 8th to 10th. What happens is that Castleberry makes State, dips until they don't make Area Finals (or get really close to missing it), then pops back up to State, and repeat. Notice how they dipped slowly from 2006 to 2010, then jumped? The same thing happened in 2014, then they saw an extended State run before dipping slowly out of Finals again, and jumping back up. That valley seems to be where they're headed this year. However, I put them in the 'Just out of Finals' because to me, those 16 bands are all deserving of a Finals run, and I will be thrilled when whatever combination of them makes it.

I'm going to go ahead and give my predictions for this contest. As a disclaimer, I am entirely aware that many people on this forum are members of the respective bands they discuss (I was like that too back in high school, I see y'all). Please, just, respect my opinion. The thing is, this is for fun, and none of us are experts in anything we're talking about, and we're very commonly wrong about many things. I've made predictions that have been both pretty close and ones that have been far off. Trust me, I know that like at least 50% or more of this is going to be wrong. And quite honestly? Prove me wrong on Saturday. I'm just saying this because some people can get defensive when their band is missing from the list, or not in the position they hope. I can elaborate on why I think this if anyone would like me to: 1. Panther Creek 2. China Spring 3. Krum 4. Gatesville 5. Alvarado *6. Springtown* 7. Robinson 8. Stephenville 9. Richland 10. Aubrey 11. Godley 12. Kennedale Just out of Finals - Brock, Castleberry, Eagle Mountain, Venus * State cutoff

Definitely agree with this lol. I was on the SS hype last year just cause I loved their show. Really wish they medaled.

Something I just realized that no one actually talked about... Did anyone see that Panther Creek beat Celina at the McKinney Marching Invitational? It wasn't small either; it was by 12 points across five judges, more than a 2-point average each. The Celina 4-peat may not happen...

Legacy Ranch is a lock for me. They're entering their second year as a school, and beat Gatesville—a State Finalist—at the Vista Ridge Invitational. Gatesville took music, but Legacy Ranch had visual and general effect. Freeman is also a Katy ISD school and entering its second year (in its first year it made Area Finals), so they'll do well too. Given what you're saying about Stafford, that kind of solidifies my State predictions. Again, there could be a change or two, but I'm thinking those fives are locks.

My only thing is that I either want Andrews to make State or get like 8th/9th in Finals. Being State Alternate 4 years in a row would not be good, especially when an extra band is advancing this year.