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That article was beautifully written. I dug it. I do have to wonder though (with absolutely no offense meant) if you took your predictions from previous state qualifiers. It's one thing to genuinely think bands A, B, and C are best and will make it, but it's another thing to assume bands A, B, and C will make it because they made it last time.

 

I agreed with most of your predictions except area B and area D. I'm a big believer in Connaly. I think I turned out to be right there. :)

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Well, the area A predictions were off. (by quite a bit I must say!)

 

UIL Class 4A Area A

 

At Ratliff Stadium, Odessa

 

Four state qualifiers, ranked in order: Azle, Saginaw, Boswell, Fossil Ridge

 

Alternates: Springtown, Mountain View

 

Other area finalists: Denton Ryan

 

Go SAGINAW!

 

 

Nothing wrong with being entirely wrong in an area. It's the nature of predictions and the nature of a rather volatile activity. There are too many variables. Congrats to your band! But I didn't see you throwing out predictions for all the areas either.

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That article was beautifully written. I dug it. I do have to wonder though (with absolutely no offense meant) if you took your predictions from previous state qualifiers. It's one thing to genuinely think bands A, B, and C are best and will make it, but it's another thing to assume bands A, B, and C will make it because they made it last time.

 

I agreed with most of your predictions except area B and area D. I'm a big believer in Connaly. I think I turned out to be right there. :)

 

 

When I have time to do my full state preview I'll touch on a couple of points. Connally is a great example. If you had told me a few weeks ago that Connally was advancing to state with the level of showmanship they were putting on the field (much less win prelims in the hotly contested Area D) I would have bet money against it. When they came out on the field on Saturday, they were significantly more impressive. They pulled the show together in a fashion similar to what bands like Westfield have done in off years. I definitely applaud the group.

 

By the way, touching on your question on my predictions, I saw as many bands as I could, but it would have been impossible to really make predictions on all bands based solely on the bands I'd seen. You were a believer in Connally, but how many times had you seen them this year? I would say that goes for other bands like Dripping Springs, Azle, Birdville, The Colony, Roma, and the likes. My point is, that when you can't see everyone, history can and does play a roll in the decision process. Just ask any pollster. A case in point I may add is you were a believer in Connally because of their history. I made my predictions based on what I had seen from them just a couple weeks before the competition at USSBA, which was night/day difference from what they actually presented when they performed this past Saturday.

 

It might also be noted that Connally didn't exactly sweep through the competition. Their strong finals performance sealed their placement at State, but the prelims contest was much tighter. The top 5 bands all had great performances (less the case in finals, when Connally and Hendrickson had distinctly strong runs) and there was no clear cut champion.

 

some recaps:

 

http://www.uilmusicregion18.com/pdfs/2007_..._4A_Prelims.pdf

 

http://www.uilmusicregion18.com/pdfs/2007_...D_4A_Finals.pdf

 

It's interesting to note that in prelims there was not a single band in the top 5 that drew more than one first place vote.

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What coulda happened...

 

Well if my band had decided to just go simply off of what it heard rather than watching drum majors, we may have fallen apart in the third movement, which may have hurt our chances at state. Joshua was quite a shocker of the day in my opinion. I had never heard of them before, and they popped out of nowhere and placed 1 alternate. wow!

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