2016 BOA San Antonio

[chrisdinh]

I don't think I have struggled more to make a list of finalists for my predictions, not to mention rank them- "BOA San Antonio is the 2nd Grand Nationals" is such an understatement

[Shadow Weaver]

Ok so the contest is only three days away so I'm gonna try my best at final predictions. Next to teach band will be the highest and lowest placement I could believably see them in.

 

1.Flowermound (highest 1st, lowest 3rd)

2.Leander (highest 1st, lowest 3rd)

3.Reagan (highest 1st, lowest 3rd)

4.CTJ (highest 4th, lowest 6th)

5.Vandegrift(highest 4th, lowest 7th)

6.Cedar Park(highest 4th, lowest 8th)

7.Hebron(highest 5th, lowest 8th)

8.Marcus(highest 6th, lowest 8th)

9.Woodlands(highest 7th, lowest 10th)

10.Round Rock(highest 8th, lowest 11th)

11.LD Bell( highest 9th, lowest 12th)

12.Hendrickson(highest 10th, lowest 13th)

13.Vista Ridge(highest 12, lowest 14th)

14.Keller(highest 12th, lowest 14th)

 

Music: could see going to flower mound, Reagan, vandegrift, or even leander with a knockout run like 14.

 

Visual: flower mound and Reagan are both very clean so either could take it, however both ctj and Leander have incredible amounts of choreography and difficult drill so they may take this caption much like ctj in 14.

 

GE: flower mound, leander, or Reagan. All three have fantastically designed shows in my opinion and a great performance could give any one of them the GE caption.

 

Whew that was ROUGH, so many great bands. I do not envy the judges here one bit.

 

After having seen the Area D competition, I believe that, barring major cleaning and refinement (and maybe more than 8 hours of practice), C.T. Johnson will not be fifth place at BOA San Antonio, nor will Hendrickson be so low. CTJ's show is so fun and creative, but it seems to have fallen behind in terms of execution. They were a solid 5th at Area D.

[NTXBandFan]

Let's not forget that some of these bands are on a different trajectory for this year, and targeting Grand Nats for their final peak.  Hebron kept chasing FloMo last year, only to finish in 3rd at Indy.  In 2014 FloMo finished in 13th at BOA SA & 9th at State, only to peak at GRand Nats & finish 6th.

[natertater21000]

Personally I think ctjs 5th place finish was due in large part to them being dirtier than normal (targeting grand nats) and it being a uil contest where the smallest amount of dirt can kill you regardless of difficulty.

[Shadow Weaver]

Personally I think ctjs 5th place finish was due in large part to them being dirtier than normal (targeting grand nats) and it being a uil contest where the smallest amount of dirt can kill you regardless of difficulty.

Dirt can kill, but I wouldn't say regardless of difficulty. Churchill and New Braunfels were two good examples at Area D Finals. Churchill had a difficult program that was short on execution whereas New Braunfels had a slightly less difficult program executed very well and ended up tying with Churchill for 7th in Finals. After the tie-breaker, Churchill came out on top.

 

However, if you start to compare CTJ and RR directly, their difficulty levels are comparable, but Reagan was executing at a higher level, hence their final placements. I'm not saying that CTJ can't or won't catch up, but given that both RR and CTJ were scoring very similarly at earlier competitions, it would seem that CTJ will need have a focused week.

[zururoua]

People said this about CTJ last year but they ended up peaking at SA with super clean visual and placing higher than many people expected. Of course this is a Gnats year for them so they probably don't want to be peaking a week early, but I think that one week can make a massive difference. Depending on their run (and other bands' runs), I think CTJ place anywhere and the same goes for many of the other finalists. Every factor is a wild card this year.

[whitewing09]

HornRank predictions:

 

Predictions

1. Flower Mound H.S., TX

2. Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

3. Vandegrift H.S., TX

4. Cedar Park H.S., TX

5. Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

6. Hebron H.S., TX

7. Leander H.S., TX

8. Marcus H.S., TX

9. LD Bell H.S., TX

10. Round Rock H.S., TX

11. The Woodlands H.S., TX

12. Keller H.S., TX

13. Hendrickson H.S., TX

14. Vista Ridge H.S., TX

Does anyone know how hornrank works? If it's anything quantitative using current and past year's data, I'd guess that Leander's low predicted placement would be from them missing SA last year (e.g. Having no data on a contest and imputing at the mean--a common practice-- would lower their ranking). I'm assuming they use past data given how highly predicted CP is even though they got fourth at Austin this year.

[principalagent]

Hornrank uses a poll of a few band enthusiasts, the season's results thus far, and probably some added discretion, to create its rankings from my understanding.

[JeremiahW]

Does anyone know how hornrank works? If it's anything quantitative using current and past year's data, I'd guess that Leander's low predicted placement would be from them missing SA last year (e.g. Having no data on a contest and imputing at the mean--a common practice-- would lower their ranking). I'm assuming they use past data given how highly predicted CP is even though they got fourth at Austin this year.

 

Leander didn't compete at San Antonio last year, so that wouldn't factor into the calculations at all.

 

You point out that at Austin, Leander beat Cedar Park. Vandegrift beat both of these groups, so these three should be ranked 1. Vandegrift, 2. Leander, 3. Cedar Park

 

But then two weeks later at TMC, Cedar Park beat Vandegrift in both prelims and finals. So now how do you rank them? 1. Cedar Park, 2. Vandegrift, 3. Leander? Or since leander had previously beaten Cedar Park, does that mean Leander is also better than Vandegrift?

 

Well, maybe, but this past weekend at UL, Vandegrift beat Leander. Yes, it's UIL, but now how should the three be ranked?

 

Now expand this across all Texas band and you'll see how impossible it is to make accurate predictions.

 

Currently, Leander is ranked ahead of Cedar Park in our national rankings, which have more of a basis in facts and data and is updated weekly throughout the fall. Our predictions are less based on facts and data, and more of a conjecture that are made once, the week of the event.

[txkyle]

Thanks for the clarification JeremiahW...BUT this still is hard to follow or understand.

I could argue that Leander should be ahead of Vandegrift but the facts you state are true.  Though Leander tied Vandy at UIL and Vandy won the tie break -.even though Leander's show is much more of a BOA show than a UIL (which Vandy's is)

 

But hey, I like it in the fact that it gets us all talking.  It's just a prediction haha...and that's the fun of it all!

 

It's just hard to believe that Hornrank has Leander ranked ahead of the prediction which is odd.  Seems like they would follow each other.  Kind of like in football, if the number 3 team is playing the number 7 team, it's almost unheard of that the number 7 team would be favored to win.

 

At end of day - March the show and let's all have some fun and enjoy these incredible programs.  I'll be cheering for Leander (obviously) haha.

[LHSax]

When you really dig into it, every single time the LISD trio of Leander/CP/Vandy have gone head to head this year, they've edged each other by fractions every time (inlcuding a virtual tie at Area finals) which is made even more interesting because their shows are SO different. The other fun fact is that I'm pretty sure the only band that has beaten any of these bands so far was CTJ at BOA austin, and they only managed to barely prevent a medal sweep. This is made even more impressive by the amazing depth of bands in the CenTex area. I think these groups can and will go toe to toe with the other LISD this year, and it'll be fun as always to see what the heck comes out at the other end!

[txkyle]

Well said LHSax....how much more fun can it get than to know that ANY of these bands can beat the other at any time YET have such different shows?  Sure it will come down to some subjectivity at the end of the day and I would HATE to have to judge them head to head.  I simply couldn't do it...they are all just too good.

 

This is good ol' fashioned rivalry stuff in a music format!

[whitewing09]

Leander didn't compete at San Antonio last year, so that wouldn't factor into the calculations at all.

 

You point out that at Austin, Leander beat Cedar Park. Vandegrift beat both of these groups, so these three should be ranked 1. Vandegrift, 2. Leander, 3. Cedar Park

 

But then two weeks later at TMC, Cedar Park beat Vandegrift in both prelims and finals. So now how do you rank them? 1. Cedar Park, 2. Vandegrift, 3. Leander? Or since leander had previously beaten Cedar Park, does that mean Leander is also better than Vandegrift?

 

Well, maybe, but this past weekend at UL, Vandegrift beat Leander. Yes, it's UIL, but now how should the three be ranked?

 

Now expand this across all Texas band and you'll see how impossible it is to make accurate predictions.

 

Currently, Leander is ranked ahead of Cedar Park in our national rankings, which have more of a basis in facts and data and is updated weekly throughout the fall. Our predictions are less based on facts and data, and more of a conjecture that are made once, the week of the event.

 

Thanks for the clarification! 

[snares]

I'm not nearly as far into the loop as I usually am, so I'm not gonna pick a top 14. Natertater's looked pretty good so I'm just going to reorder his.

1.Flowermound (highest 1st, lowest 2rd)
2.Reagan (highest 1st, lowest 3rd)
3.Leander (Highest 2nd, lowest 5th)
4.Vandegrift (highest 2nd, lowest 5th)
5.Hebron (Highest 4th, Lowest 7th)
6.Cedar Park(highest 4th, lowest 8th)
7.CTJ (Highest 6th, Lowest 9th)
8.Marcus(highest 7th, Lowest 9th)
9.Round Rock (Highest 7th, Lowest 11th)
10.Woodlands (highest 8th, Lowest 12th)
11.LD Bell( highest 10th, lowest 12th)
12.Keller (highest 9th, Lowest 13th)
13.Hendrickson(highest 12th, lowest 14th)
14.Vista Ridge (highest 12th, lowest 14th)

 

Completely guessed on most of them...

Music: Vandegrift, Hebron, or Flomo

Visual: Flomo or Reagan

GE: Vandy, Reagan, Leander, or Flomo

[livonian]

People said this about CTJ last year but they ended up peaking at SA with super clean visual and placing higher than many people expected. Of course this is a Gnats year for them so they probably don't want to be peaking a week early, but I think that one week can make a massive difference. Depending on their run (and other bands' runs), I think CTJ place anywhere and the same goes for many of the other finalists. Every factor is a wild card this year.

I've seen CTJ perform live three times this year (Austin & Area D) and twice on FloMo (Conroe). Their Area performance seemed so low energy compared to the others, and it seemed like they had removed some elements that had been there before. At the time I chalked it up to the fact they had opted out of finals. But they don't seem like the type to slack off in a performance, so now I'm wondering what was going on. They'll definitely have to turn it up for SA.

[LKendrick]

Well, the other BOA Grand Nationals is about to kick off in about 9 hours!  Took off work to watch as much as I can the next two days.  Best of luck to everyone, and I'm sure as is so every year, it will be the best high school contest I've ever watched in any shape or form regardless of wins, gets in finals, etc.  Best of luck to everyone attending, have fun if you're spectating, and feel free to discuss and share your thoughts!  I always enjoy reading what everyone has to say.  I'll do my write up in finals for each band like I did last year again, really enjoyed doing that. 

 

This officially kicks off the finale of the 2016 marching season, which once again went by way too fast. 

[bandperson1997]

Best of luck to everyone today! I'm sure everyone will do great.

[zururoua]

Let the bloodbath commence, I suppose. Can't wait to see how it all turns out and to see all the great bands.

[northtexasbandfan]

While I am rooting for Flower Mound, the very best to all competing bands, volunteers and parents. May it be an unforgettable experience for all. And may there be no prop malfunctions, electronics issues....or rain (might not get that last wish). 

[Fmbandfan]

My niece is in the Jack Hays band performing today and my twins are in the Flower Mound band performing tomorrow. My wish is that they both end up in finals and get to be in full retreat together. That would be a proud mom/aunt moment! Good luck to all of the bands. What a great weekend to be involved in these kids activities.

[LKendrick]

My niece is in the Jack Hays band performing today and my twins are in the Flower Mound band performing tomorrow. My wish is that they both end up in finals and get to be in full retreat together. That would be a proud mom/aunt moment! Good luck to all of the bands. What a great weekend to be involved in these kids activities.

 

Best of luck to all of them!  They're members of some great programs. 

 

[LKendrick]

Anderson was a ton of fun! 

[Nny14]

Cedar Ridge has improved, but I'm not so certain of their show. Really enjoyed Westlake, they sounded great. Glad to see them back in the running for finals.

[Imagine]

I'm going to be the dissenter on Reagan.

 

I sat through many bands this season performing at a high level with great sound and clean marching and I kept thinking, surely these shows can beat Reagan.  Then Reagan comes on and their music blows me away. The music itself is fresh and the kids are performing it at such a high level. Having been involved in band for a very long time, I am quite picky about singing in a marching show and how it's presented.  If I find myself watching the singer and not the band, then I have a real problem with that. That hasn't happened for me with Reagan's show and I think they've struck a good balance.  I wouldn't describe it as " a musical."  I would describe what the Reagan team has put together as more of a soundtrack--a soundtrack I'd put in my playlist and listen to again and again like any well crafted piece of music.

 

That being said, I think there's something to the argument that if you have 2-3 bands who all perform at that same high level--great sound, clean show, great overall general effect--it may in the end just come down to the personal preferences of the judges. At the end of the day, that's the "X" factor that's hard to account for.  

[Mash]

Good luck to all the bands today!  I'm pulling for Vista Ridge but I want all of them to perform their best.