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2016 BOA San Antonio Predictions


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I'm really keeping my eye on Johnson.  They've started about right, but out of all the shows I've seen this year, Texas or not, it has the most potential for growth by far in my eyes.  I'm not really making a prediction as far as their placement goes but I do think that show is going to place as high as they can clean it and add to it.  They can do a ton in both of those regards, it's really designed to peak in November.  

 

I could say similar things about Leander, still a lot to add and they can do a ton musically, and they tend to really blossom late in the season as well.  

 

I also think The Woodlands has a ton of potential with some scrubbing and additions.  

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Just gonna organize into bubbles for now:

 

1st:

Flower Mound

 

2-4:

Leander

Ronald Reagan

Vandegrift

 

5-7:

Claudia Taylor Johnson

Hebron

Marcus

 

8-11:

Cedar Park

L.D. Bell

Round Rock

The Woodlands

 

12-16:

Hendrickson

Keller

Keller Central

Vista Ridge

Winston Churchill

 

Music: Lewisville ISD

Visual: Flower Mound, Ronald Reagan

GE: Flower Mound

 

Wow, some very good bands will not be making finals. Wouldn't be surprised if 10th place broke 90, geez.

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Okay so super early probably very inaccurate and slightly biased predictions but hey I thought it'd be fun to put scores and everything

 

1st Flower mound 95.20 music, GE

2nd Leander 94.15

3rd Ronald Reagan 93.85 visual

4th Claudia Taylor Johnson 93.65

5th Cedar park 92.9

6th Hebron 92.85 (the curse continues)

7th vandegrift 92.75

8th Marcus 92.35

9th woodlands 91.25

10th Round Rock 91.00

11th LD Bell 90.85

12th vista ridge 89.15

13th Hendrickson 88.35

14th Keller 88.000

 

So I think one of the big head scratchers in my predictions is vandegrift's placement. Personally I could see them as high as 3rd, but I think with places 2nd through 5th all trying to peak as late as possible with grand nationals around the corner their scores will increase drastically over these last 3 weeks.

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It is notable that Cedar Park narrowly beat Vandegrift in both prelims and finals at the Texas Marching Classic this past weekend (although Vandegrift still won the music and visual captions in finals).

 

With regards to Vandegrift's possible placement at BOA San Antonio, one indicator will be whether Vandegrift can match Leander's presumably high performance level again when the Area H contest rolls around at the end of this month.

 

As for BOA San Antonio, I'll holding off on any full predictions until after the area contests are done.

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Just my 2 cents. This super regional truly is "The other Grand Nationals"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flower Mound H.S., TX                         Potential Champions                                                 

Ronald Reagan H.S., TX                                             

Leander H.S., TX                                                                                                                                                        

Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

-

Hebron H.S., TX                                        Top 5 Upsets

Vandegrift H.S., TX                                                     

-
Marcus H.S., TX                                       Finalist locks

The Woodlands H.S., TX                                                                                                                                                                     

Cedar Park H.S., TX

Round Rock H.S., TX

---------------

L.D. Bell H.S., TX  "Upper" bubble

Keller H.S., TX                                           

Winston Churchill H.S., TX

Wakeland H.S., TX

---------------

Vista Ridge H.S., TX  "Middle" bubble  

The Woodlands College Park H.S., TX

Hendrickson H.S., TX                                                   

Westlake H.S., TX

-----------------

Aledo H.S., TX                             "Lower" bubble-Alphebetical

Anderson H.S., TX

Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

Colleyville Heritage H.S., TX

Dripping Springs H.S., TX

Friendswood H.S., TX

Judson H.S., TX

Keller Central H.S., TX

Lake Travis H.S., TX

Maui H.S., HI

Pearland H.S., TX

Pflugerville H.S., TX

Richland H.S., TX

Robert E. Lee H.S., TX

Rouse H.S., TX

Sandra Day O'Connor H.S., TX

Westwood H.S., TX

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 

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I can't disagree with either of those last two predictions.  I think Area competitions will definitely be the strong indicator for BOA SA since that will be the first time everyone's shows are completed.  I can't say it enough that Texas will be well represented at GN this year with all of these programs.  BOA SA and UIL 6A State may be the most high level competitions in the country overall this year.  I can't remember when so many programs were all performing at such a high level....and also so early...making for some well honed performances late in the  year.

 

Has anyone figured out why Austin Bowie isn't at BOA SA this year?  Is it just due to budgets and so many contests that week?

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I can't disagree with either of those last two predictions.  I think Area competitions will definitely be the strong indicator for BOA SA since that will be the first time everyone's shows are completed.  I can't say it enough that Texas will be well represented at GN this year with all of these programs.  BOA SA and UIL 6A State may be the most high level competitions in the country overall this year.  I can't remember when so many programs were all performing at such a high level....and also so early...making for some well honed performances late in the  year.

 

Has anyone figured out why Austin Bowie isn't at BOA SA this year?  Is it just due to budgets and so many contests that week?

Bowie didn't go to BOASA last time they had State and Nationals on the same year, so they probably don't want the kids missing so much classtime (All the competitions are in the time span of like, two weeks?). Also, having to replace all of their directors this summer probably made it extremely difficult to plan everything, so they just cut some stuff out.

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My main thing about FLower Mound, is that even though they did so well in Plano, can they keep the momentum?  Do they have a lot more to add?  How much do they have to clean?

I'm sure they have elements to still add.  But I don't know much much more above the competition they will be in San Antonio.  They'll still score a lot of points, but That 4 point gap between 1st & 2nd will be closed.

Keep in mind Hebron scored an 87+ in DFW a few years ago, only to finish in 2nd in San Antonio.

I think the high score served as a wakeup call to all the contenders to step up their game, and come with their A game.  I'll still put them as 1st, but not in pen.

 

1-5
Flower Mound
Leander 
Ronald Reagan 
CTJ
Marcus


6-11:
Hebron

Vandergrift
The Woodlands
L.D. Bell
Round Rock

Cedar Park


12-15:
Winston Churchill

Vista Ridge

Hendrickson
Keller


Music: Marcus
Visual: Flower Mound
GE: Flower Mound

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My main thing about FLower Mound, is that even though they did so well in Plano, can they keep the momentum?  Do they have a lot more to add?  How much do they have to clean?

I'm sure they have elements to still add.  But I don't know much much more above the competition they will be in San Antonio.  They'll still score a lot of points, but That 4 point gap between 1st & 2nd will be closed.

Keep in mind Hebron scored an 87+ in DFW a few years ago, only to finish in 2nd in San Antonio.

I think the high score served as a wakeup call to all the contenders to step up their game, and come with their A game.  I'll still put them as 1st, but not in pen.

 

I think the nominal score is a lot less relevant than the actual disparities in score. The year Hebron got an 87.30, Marcus got an 86.75, and Bell got 85.45. It seems that the scores were pretty inflated overall. In Flomo's case, they were just ahead of  the competition completely. I'd almost bet if they had performances like that at SA, they would have scored in the 90s. 

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Yeah, the FloMo Gap was real. That was crazy end of year level cleanliness for most groups that will be in Finals at BOA SA and fully deserved to score 90ish if it were to stand completely on its own or was against BOA SA level competition.

 

FloMo did have a completed show this year while most others didn't, but they had that last year too and were still able to stay comfortably on top. And they do have quite a bit to add, especially in the musicality department where they can add a whole lot more dynamic range and interpretive nuance beyond just musical/visual cleaning. I do agree that the gap will likely get closed quite a bit, but I'm not sure that anybody will be able to fully catch up and pass them before BOA SA.

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FloMo did have a completed show this year while most others didn't, but they had that last year too and were still able to stay comfortably on top..

I wouldn't say they were comfortable on top for finals at BOA Arlington, while they beat hebron by over a point in prelims, they won finals by .1, mainly because of their GE advantage.

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I wouldn't say they were comfortable on top for finals at BOA Arlington, while they beat hebron by over a point in prelims, they won finals by .1, mainly because of their GE advantage.

I meant that they were able to keep a comfortable enough lead to stay in the medals at BOA SA last year even though they already had a complete show at BOA Arlington. Although, comfortable is very relative.
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After seeing Leander's full show sans props I think it has a chance to catch flomo if it's cleaned incredibly well. That being said it's a tall order for Reagan,Leander and Ctj to get clean enough by San Antonio to catch flomo due to how clean they already are. But beyond the top of finals, I'm incredibly excited to see what happens in the bottom 5 spots or so. Based off Austin finals we may see vista break the top 10 or a number of bands who either haven't made it in a long time or have never made slip into finals. It's gonna be crazy.

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Just my 2 cents. This super regional truly is "The other Grand Nationals"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flower Mound H.S., TX Potential Champions

Ronald Reagan H.S., TX

Leander H.S., TX

Claudia Taylor Johnson H.S., TX

-

Hebron H.S., TX Top 5 Upsets

Vandegrift H.S., TX

-

Marcus H.S., TX Finalist locks

The Woodlands H.S., TX

Cedar Park H.S., TX

Round Rock H.S., TX

---------------

L.D. Bell H.S., TX "Upper" bubble

Keller H.S., TX

Winston Churchill H.S., TX

Wakeland H.S., TX

---------------

Vista Ridge H.S., TX "Middle" bubble

The Woodlands College Park H.S., TX

Hendrickson H.S., TX

Westlake H.S., TX

-----------------

Aledo H.S., TX "Lower" bubble-Alphebetical

Anderson H.S., TX

Cedar Ridge H.S., TX

Colleyville Heritage H.S., TX

Dripping Springs H.S., TX

Friendswood H.S., TX

Judson H.S., TX

Keller Central H.S., TX

Lake Travis H.S., TX

Maui H.S., HI

Pearland H.S., TX

Pflugerville H.S., TX

Richland H.S., TX

Robert E. Lee H.S., TX

Rouse H.S., TX

Sandra Day O'Connor H.S., TX

Westwood H.S., TX

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

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