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Area C Predictions?


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This one will be difficult.  Will there be four or five bands advancing?  I'm thinking that just four will advance from Area to state.  After Marcus, FloMo, and Hebron I think the fourth will be either Allen, or Berkner 

Here are ALL the bands in Area C:
Rowlett
Lufkin
Lakeview
Lewisville
Guyer
Hebron
McKinney
Flower Mound
Garland
Marcus
John Horn
Byron Nelson
Berkner
Mesquite
North Garland
Allen
Rockwall Heath
Sachse
South Garland
Lake Highlands
Longview
Richardson
North Mesquite
JJ Pearce
Wylie
Rockwall
McKinney Boyd
Robert E. Lee
John Tyler

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Most likely you won't see the military bands from Lufkin or Longview go to Area if history is any indicator.

While they may not attend, that won't affect the number of bands that advance to State this time. The advancement rules were changed from 1 for every 5 that compete at Area to 1 for every 5 that qualify for Area.
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Okay, let's see for every 5 bands that advance/qualify to/for area regardless if they compete in area at all, 1 band can advance to state. With that let's see how many 6A bands are in Area C: Regions 2,3,4,21,25. Region 2: 6 bands, Region 3: 14 bands, Region 4: 0 Bands (JUSSST WHYYYYYYY), Region 21: 4 bands, Region 25: 6 bands. So that means the total amount of 6A bands in Area C is....*drumrolls* 30 bands total. That means if ALL 6A Bands advance/qualify to/for area regardless if they compete in area or not, that means we could see up to 6 bands advancing to state. Which means 4 - 6 bands CAN advance to state.

 

Now let's get the list of the 6A Bands (from the previous post that FloMoParent [Also, I had to a few schools that were missing] made):

I am going to strike through the bands that I know won't make Area Finals. It does not mean I am hating or discouraging anyone from anything it is just my own opinions that should be respected as opinions and not taken as facts or the truth.

This is under the assumptions that ALL 30 of these 6A Bands QUALIFY for area.

Also, I cannot find any previous Area results so I would be unable to get a general idea. Plus, it is extremely difficult to make a decent assumption because UIL doesn't keep records on UIL Area Results publically but they do for State. They kind of have a result for Area contests, but it doesn't work, only shows 14-15, and only shows the list of band competing at area. 

Please note that the previous 4 bands that consistently advance to state from the former Area C were, Berkner, Duncanville, Coppell, and Rowlett. Please note that Duncanville and Coppell are no longer in Area C.

 

List Key:

Bold: Most likely Top 6 advancing to state

Underline: Most likely to make Area finals but unlikely advance to state

Italics: Just because we're in Texas, if the stars align then they could make state or area finals. 

Strikethrough: Most likely will not make Area finals

 

Rowlett one of the original top 4 finalists from the former Area C
Lufkin Never heard of them, Sorry D:
Lakeview Centennial Possible but unlikely
Lewisville Possible but unlikely. 
Guyer Never heard of them either, Sorry D:
Hebron Known UIL State Finalist
McKinney Known State Qualifier in class 5a before recently moving up to class 6A, does not rule out a chance they could advance or be an alternate. Per what, mmbandfan told me.
Flower Mound Known UIL State Finalist
Garland
Marcus UIL State Champion
John Horn heard of their stadium but not the band advancing to finals.
Byron Nelson
Berkner Original Top 4 bands in the Former Area C and Known UIL State Finalist

Naaman Forest
Mesquite
North Garland

Allen Allen is not a competitive band due to their sheer size that makes it impracticable. Does not mean it is impossible, because I know that one year they made 1st in state unanimously. Also, allen is the only one in this that as all of the List Keys used for it because it's unique situation.
Rockwall Heath I have not witnessed them making Area Finals but does not rule out a chance that they could...
Sachse This one been underlined instead of striked due to a special circumstance, Sachse was the 5th place band consistently in the former Area C which means they have a possible chance.
South Garland
Lake Highlands Consistently made Area Finals in the former Area C but not sure if that can translate to the new Area C
Longview
Richardson Consistently made Area Finals in the former Area C but not sure if that can translate to the new Area C, Former State Finalists
North Mesquite Was the state Alternate in 2014 for Area C, does not rule out the random chance that they could advance to state. Per what, mmbandfan told me.
JJ Pearce Consistently made Area Finals in the former Area C but not sure if that can translate to the new Area C, Also, previously advanced to state finals consistently under Class 4A but they does not really apply well since they moved up a conference.
Wylie Unlikely, to make Area Finals but does not mean we can rule out any possible chances
Rockwall
McKinney Boyd
Robert E. Lee
John Tyler

 

So out of this mess, your Area Finalist bands would be in no specific order..

UIL Area C Possible Finalists

Rowlett 

Hebron

Flower Mound

Marcus

Berkner

These five are most definitely going to make area finals and the Top 6 advancing to state, now the 6th position is a tough one... it could be either... 

Lakeview Centennial

Lewisville

Allen

Sachse

Lake Highlands

Richardson

JJ Pearce

North Mesquite

Mckinney

There is State Alternate but very rarely does the State Alternate actually does take the place of any other State Qualifiers. So I do not need to need to make a list for that.

 

These are the schools that are known to make Area Finals but not enough to advance to state, except in circumstances where they advanced to state or state finals in a difference conference (which is not going to be taken into account because it doesn't have that much substance in this matter) However, I might have missed out other schools that have made Area Finals consistently in past 3 - 4 Area B/C/D (if there any from that area here) competitions.

 

Also, BANDS OF AMERICA COMPETITIONS DO NOT HAVE ANY MATERIAL IN THIS DECISION. Sorry but, It is mainly because UIL and BOA contests are wayyyy different heck we'll even throw in ISSMA (Indiana) here too. UIL, BOA, and ISSMA operate completely different from one of there as you can tell from their difference, Now they do have some similar points but it is not appropriate to include those in here. If you were to put them on a triangle, or any other polygons each one would be in its own corner. xD Simply said, UIL emphasizes on Complex or Unique Music and Tough Marching techniques while BOA appeals more to Visuals and General Effects and does not place that much emphasize on Complex Music and Unique marching techniques. I do not know much about ISSMA since I never been to or ever seen a ISSMA contest so I cannot say more than I already know on that subject. I'm not here to bash on UIL or BOA (or ISSMA) I am just stating that it is completely inappropriate to compare UIL State Finalists to any BOA Regionals, Super Regionals, or Grand Nationals finalists because those achievements are not reciprocal whatsoever.

 

Aaaaand that is just my interesting speculation on what could happen, but even with that said, it is still Texas... Anything can happen... AND I MEAN ANYTHING....I REPEAT........... "ANYTHING"

Edited: October 18, 2016 to fix some errors and change some stuff.

Edit: October 24, 2016, apparently there were only 29 bands because Naaman Forest is in 5a conference. yeah... I'm too lazy to edit this mess right now. I will fix this later.

Edited by azn
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So out of this mess, your Area Finalist bands would be in no specific order..

UIL Area C Possible Finalists

Rowlett 

Hebron

Flower Mound

Marcus

Berkner

These five are most definitely going to make area finals and the Top 6 advancing to state, now the 6th position is a tough one... it could be either... 

Lakeview Centennial

Lewisville

Allen

Sachse

Lake Highlands

Richardson

JJ Pearce

These are the schools that are known to make Area Finals but not enough to advance to state, except in circumstances where they advanced to state or state finals in a difference conference (which is not going to be taken into account because it doesn't have that much substance in this matter) However, I might have missed out other schools that have made Area Finals consistently in past 3 - 4 Area B/C/D (if there any from that area here) competitions.

 

 

I disagree with North Mesquite being crossed out - they look great this year (3rd at Wylie Invitational) and were state alternate in 2014 from Area C. Also, McKinney is a state qualifier in 5A last year who just moved up. They were 4th at Wylie. 

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I disagree with North Mesquite being crossed out - they look great this year (3rd at Wylie Invitational) and were state alternate in 2014 from Area C. Also, McKinney is a state qualifier in 5A last year who just moved up. They were 4th at Wylie. 

Oops, sorry I must had missed that part xD Mckinney I would put under the same category as JJ pearce because Pearce was a state qualifer and finalist in 4a in like 2011 who moved up to 5A in 2012 but didn't make state 5A so I would put an Italic and Underline for North Mesquite and Mckinney meaning it is possible but unlikely given the presence of the other powerhouses. Also, with the italics that doesn't rule out a random chance of it happening though. xD

 

I took my list from the Area C page pdf.

Nice, I was looking directly at the TMEA Region maps. and I noticed that naaman forest was missing so I quickly added it in xD

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I took my list from the Area C page pdf.

I discovered that there is only 29 6A bands according to the Area C Page pdf, completely contrary to the TMEA Region Alignment Map! Apparently Naaman Forest is a 5A band but on the Alignment Map it is a 6A band. The confusion is real but that means unfortunately that only 5 bands can advance unless this crap is sorted out.

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I discovered that there is only 29 6A bands according to the Area C Page pdf, completely contrary to the TMEA Region Alignment Map! Apparently Naaman Forest is a 5A band but on the Alignment Map it is a 6A band. The confusion is real but that means unfortunately that only 5 bands can advance unless this crap is sorted out.

The best place to get this kind of information from is UILForms.com

 

That's where all the Regions executives manage the official UIL Region Marching and Concert lineups and results.

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Marcus Flower Mound and Hebron were all insanely good. I think Marcus and Flower Mound are ahead Visually, but you need to hear how crazy those Hebron woodwinds are this year. Their entire show is basically sixteenth notes, and it isn't a slow tempo. I think Marcus is the furthest ahead just because of how incredibly clean they are, Hebron might have them beat musically by a little, but visually they (and flomo) are ahead of Hebron

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Region marching contest results:

 

Region 2 - 6 of 6 got ones

Region 3 - 12 of 13 (N. Garland got a 2)

Region 21 - 3 of 4 (John Tyler got a 2)

Region 25 - 5 of 6 (Rockwall Heath got a 2)

 

So by my count that makes 26 bands qualifying in 6A for Area C, meaning 5 bands will advance to state.

And for the record Namaan Forest did slip down to 5A as they are on the lineup for tomorrow's Region 3 5A marching contest. Not that it would have mattered.

 

Best of luck to all Saturday in Mesquite!

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Region marching contest results:

 

Region 2 - 6 of 6 got ones

Region 3 - 12 of 13 (N. Garland got a 2)

Region 21 - 3 of 4 (John Tyler got a 2)

Region 25 - 5 of 6 (Rockwall Heath got a 2)

 

So by my count that makes 26 bands qualifying in 6A for Area C, meaning 5 bands will advance to state.

And for the record Namaan Forest did slip down to 5A as they are on the lineup for tomorrow's Region 3 5A marching contest. Not that it would have mattered.

 

Best of luck to all Saturday in Mesquite!

Yep, it was really weird. I guess they should fix the website.

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Finalists:

 

Flower Mound

Marcus

Hebron

 

(Gap)

 

Next 7 (just guessing here...no offense if I have overlooked a more obvious choice)

Rowlett

Denton Guyer

Byron Nelson

Richardson Berkner

Allen

Sachse

Lake Highlands

 

5 bands moving on to State:

Flower Mound

Marcus

Hebron

 

(Gap)

 

Byron Nelson

Richardson Berkner

 

I think it will be intriguing who gets slots 4 and 5, and VERY, VERY INTRIGUING in which order the top 3 finish. 

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Finalists:

 

I think it will be intriguing who gets slots 4 and 5, and VERY, VERY INTRIGUING in which order the top 3 finish. 

I agree the top three order will be interesting. Flomo was far ahead in Plano, not only in the overall show but how clean they were. The Marcus show ended abruptly and seemed short so they have a lot to add. Also there are only a couple of other band that when you just listen to the music you shake your head and ask yourself "how do these high school kids sound so good?" Hebron is one of those other bands. They sounded great but didn't sound as confident as they usually do.

 

We shall see. I have no idea, as usual, what is going to happen. Regardless, it is going to be awesome to see.

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Finalists:

 

Flower Mound

Marcus

Hebron

 

(Gap)

 

Next 7 (just guessing here...no offense if I have overlooked a more obvious choice)

Rowlett

Denton Guyer

Byron Nelson

Richardson Berkner

Allen

Sachse

Lake Highlands

 

5 bands moving on to State:

Flower Mound

Marcus

Hebron

 

(Gap)

 

Byron Nelson

Richardson Berkner

 

I think it will be intriguing who gets slots 4 and 5, and VERY, VERY INTRIGUING in which order the top 3 finish. 

What's up with people putting Allen in finals? I don't think they can make it their show isn't the greatest this year.

Never heard of Bryon Nelson. Can someone get me video of their show?

No Mckinney or Mckinney Boyd?

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The Allen band program is awesome! If you want to march halftime in your football uniform you can. If you have a broken leg and can't walk they will find a spot for you. If you are in a wheelchair they will find someone to push you and make a spot. If you have an interest or love of music you are welcomed. I remember seeing them at a UIL competition a couple of years ago and learned they had a "competition" band. Still big but not halftime big. They had uniforms that were half black and half white. They did some pretty cool stuff on the field. I don't think they made finals but it was an awesome show!

 

Predictions are just guesses. I am not as familiar with the new area c as I was with the old area b but any band can do well on a given day. One of the McKinney schools came in second in Mesquite behind Hebron. Does that mean they will make finals? Who knows.

 

Tomorrow will be great regardless. Best of luck to all bands competing.

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