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Area D Predictions?


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New predictions without CTJ and Reagan in finals:

 

1) Round Rock *

2) Bowie *

3) Hendrickson *

4) Churchill *

5) New Braunfels * (Cutoff for 25-29 bands at Area)

6) Cedar Ridge * (Cutoff for 30-32 bands at Area)

7) Westwood

8) Anderson

9) Pflugerville

10) Madison

---------------

11) Canyon

12) Hays

 

I think the top three are locks, and it's going to be a heck of a fight for the fourth and fifth spots between Churchill, New Braunfels, Cedar Ridge, Westwood, and Anderson.

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The current line-up of bands for area D is 23-29 bands as region 18 has not gone yet:

1.AKINS HS

2.ANDERSON HS

3.BELTON HS

4.CANYON HS

5.CLAUDIA TAYLOR JOHNSON HS’’’’’(Not performing in finals)

6.CEDAR RIDGE HS

7.COPPERAS COVE HS

8.DEL VALLE HS

9.ELLISON HS

10.HARKER HEIGHTS HS

11.HAYS HS

12.HENDRICKSON HS

13.JAMES BOWIE HS

14.JAMES MADISON HS

15.KILLEEN HS

16.LEHMAN HS

17.MACARTHUR HS

18.MCNEIL HS

19.MIDWAY HS

20.NEW BRAUNFELS HS

21.PFLUGERVILLE HS

22.ROUND ROCK HS

23.RONALD REAGAN HS’’’’’(might not perform in finals)

24.ROBERT E. LEE HS

25.ROOSEVELT HS

26.STONY POINT HS

27.SMITHSON VALLEY HS

28.WESTWOOD HS

29.WINSTON CHURCHILL HS

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I've seen Round Rock in person and it's very strong. I thought they would challenge for third at BOA Austin. It's a cleaner effort than both 2012 and 2014 and I would be more than a little shocked if they didn't advance this year. The music book is still toned down from 2011-2014 Round Rock but it's very well done and much more clear.

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Here are my predictions for finalists:

Locks (No order):

Bowie (Looking good this year! Although with all the band directors leaving, they could not get first like in 2014. Also, every year there is one crazy judge that gives them 13th place or something but could it drag them down beneath the cutoff?)

Reagan (A strong contender for taking the gold at state finals, grand nationals, let along area finals.)

CTJ (Always great, and this year is not an exception.)

Cedar Ridge (Didn't do so great at State prelims last year, and also got 10th at BOA Austin. But with their grand national finals past and area judges always loving what Cedar Ridge put's on, I have them as a lock)

 

Upper Bubble (In somewhat of an order):

Round Rock (Really should be a lock, but Area judges seem to hate them)

Hendrickson (Went from 1st in prelims in 2014 to tying for 9th in finals. Really got ripped off)

Churchill (Didn't make finals in 2014, but has made some vast improvements since then)

Anderson (Pretty good this year, Anderson is often a wild card, while almost making state in 2014 but not even making finals in 2012)

Westwood (Music is top notch and, musically, could be ranked top 5. Visuals/drill is lacking through [at least at BOA Austin])

 

Fighting for the last spot (In somewhat of an order):

Pflugerville (I love Pflugerville this year! Beat Churchill in 2014 to take the last spot in finals, and could do it again (But beating out another band)

Lehman (Such pretty music. Lehman got 2's at UIL Region last year, but have drastically improved)

Hays (Always has been a dark horse for finals, could this be the year?)

Canyon/New Braunfels (Could be an underdog for finals)

 

Haven't really heard of New Braunfels's year, but I don't think they have ever made Area D finals, let alone beat any of my lock/bubble bands. Could be wrong, though. 

 

Edited to take out Lake Travis since they are not in Area D

With CTJ not attending finals, I am bumping Round Rock into the locks, and moving Pflugerville up to the Upper Bubble. 

 

Now my top choice for fighting for last spot is Lehman (really impressed with them this year), and am moving McNeil to the fighting for last spot at the low end. 

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I can also confirm that assuming they make area finals, Reagan will be performing.  NEISD is not strict about band attendance at football games. Last year when Johnson and Reagan competed at Conroe, I was told their football teams were competing against each other that same night. This was of interest to me, given that the Woodlands had to pull out of finals due to a football game. Turns out the bands at the feeder schools for both Reagan and Johnson combined to form a band for each team. I commend NEISD, the football teams, and the schools involved for supporting their band programs!

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And further proof that CTJ has no plans to pull out of finals:

 

UIL Area D Competition Meal

                        
Deadline, Wednesday, Oct. 26: The meal committee has put together a new meal order for the upcoming UIL Area D competition in Austin on Saturday, October 29.
 These meals are an optional purchase but we are encouraging everyone
to order because students won't have an opportunity to purchase food
until the finals competition later that evening (students will be
allowed to purchase items from the concession stand while they are
watching finals). If you don't want to order a meal, please send food or
snacks with your band member for the day and/or send money with them.
If you have any questions please contact Kim Freund at jjbandmeals@gmail.com. Please click on the link below to order.  Also, if you have a meal credit from last year's playoff games please contact Kim."

 

 

 

This is from the Johnson Band Booster page. Sorry guys! Wishful thinking. ;)

 

http://www.johnsonjaguarband.org/web/page.aspx?title=CTJ+Band+Parent+Association

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CTJ will not be attending Finals. The Meal plans were posted long before they had announced to drop out of state. Hopefully that cleared up some confusion on whether or not they were attending state. (I have a direct email saying so as well due to missing to much school and the dedication they had already made to Grand Nationals 2 years prior)

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http://johnsonband.instantencore.com/web/page.aspx?title=2016+Competitions

 

This is where I found that CTJ intended to only perform in preliminaries. Perhaps it's changed, but there's contradicting information from official sources, it seems.

wow, well color me surprised. I hadn't seen that link. Getting additional confirmation seals the deal, but it's definitely some of the most surprising news I've heard in many years.

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wow, well color me surprised. I hadn't seen that link. Getting additional confirmation seals the deal, but it's definitely some of the most surprising news I've heard in many years.

The most surprising thing in my mind is the fact that Ronald Reagan and CTJ are in the same district, both attending nationals, and seem to be taking completely different approaches to UIL. I just can not for the life of me understand why anyone would choose not to participate in the greatest state marching championship in the country. Let alone the reigning bronze medalist

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UIL just isn't everyone's top priority. Some find it too archaic or dislike the time constraints it requires. I would imagine more bands would actually stop going or occasionally opt out if it weren't for heavy amounts of school district and administration pressure to go every year. Perhaps Johnson wants to spend their time focusing purely on Grand Nationals - which makes sense (but does bring up the argument that 2015 or 2017 were just fine years to attend GN as well).

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The most surprising thing in my mind is the fact that Ronald Reagan and CTJ are in the same district, both attending nationals, and seem to be taking completely different approaches to UIL. I just can not for the life of me understand why anyone would choose not to participate in the greatest state marching championship in the country. Let alone the reigning bronze medalist

 

I can totally understand why they would prefer to skip the UIL State competition and focus on the last 2 BOA competitions. The BOA competitions are where they will get the most favorable scores and where they will have the most success as their style is most appreciated with BOA judging criteria. In my opinion, the BOA criteria is more appropriate for most bands today. I've been going to marching competitions for 50 years now and judging bands today with almost the same criteria just doesn't make sense to me. Yes, there have been some changes, but for the most part it's the same criteria with very little to accommodate what's being fielded today. And many of those elements that those changes address are mostly tolerated more than they are actually used as criteria for point potential. Also, the 1000-point grading system is just unmanageable as well.

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BOA has gotten quite the foothold in Texas.  The NEISD juggernauts seem to have all but sworn off regular invitationals completely and now only do UIL and BOA.  Churchill attended Austin, Plano & Conroe this year (making finals at each one), and will also be attending San Antonio (FOUR total regionals).  It reminds me of when Carmel (IN) used to go around attending pretty much every BOA contest within traveling distance (including BOA San Antonio).

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