2016 6A State Predictions

[principalagent]

Probably worth noting here that UIL's handbook has been updated to state that should there be 36 or more bands at SMBC, then 12 bands will advance to finals.

 

Finals will also now be a full retreat.

[LHSax]

Probably worth noting here that UIL's handbook has been updated to state that should there be 36 or more bands at SMBC, then 12 bands will advance to finals.

 

Finals will also now be a full retreat.

 

Both good changes. Thanks for the update!

[Hard Core Band Fan]

I'm going to go out on a l limb and say that Round Rock will make it to state this year. At least to the prelims. They've missed out the last 2 times and I think they may make it this year. A band that can make the Grand National finals twice should be able to make it to the state prelims. I know they are more of a BOA-style band, but I think they still have the potential and they are definitely a late-season band. It probably helps that Westlake is in Area H now as well.

 

I also think that Hendrickson has a shot as well to at least get to state prelims. Last time in the 2014 Area D prelims they were 1st, only to miss the state cut ending up in 8th in the finals - just below Round Rock in 7th. 6th place was the cut-off. I think Hendrickson will have a breakout year soon. They just play too well to not have more success.

 

Anyone know of any other bands right at the cut-off point that may surprise us this year?

[vacon3`]

After hearing Brazoswood at a football game tonight i was incredibly impressed by the mature and clean sound they have this early in the season. They were 9th in the honor band competition, and 2013 honor band, so I think they will at least make it to state and possibly be in the top half of the group- not sure if they have the marching chops for finals.

[jmatthews]

After hearing Brazoswood at a football game tonight i was incredibly impressed by the mature and clean sound they have this early in the season. They were 9th in the honor band competition, and 2013 honor band, so I think they will at least make it to state and possibly be in the top half of the group- not sure if they have the marching chops for finals.

 

Brazoswood and Friendswood have come close to 6A (former 5A) finals on several occasions but seem to fall just short almost every time. I'm hoping we will get to see multiple Houston-area bands in state finals, but it is a very stacked competition. 

[Firetail]

With the area realignment, hopefully more bands from the Houston area will be able to qualify for state. There are some great programs that definitely deserve to be recognized.

[LKendrick]

Vandegrift and Westlake made a big statement yesterday.

 

Westlake was a huge surprise. They sounded pretty amazing.

[Jelonfish]

This year I have seen Haltom show several time and truly believe that I can see them in top 5 for sure. Years past they haven't done so well but I think they have a chance. Props are beautiful and music is spectacular. There show is title festival and I am beyond excited to see what they have to offer at state this year

[snares]

I was blown away by Vandegrift. Blown away. If they can keep up their momentum, we might have a very interesting BOA trip in November

[RenMacnary]

In response to: "Anyone know of any other bands right at the cut-off point that may surprise us this year?"

 

In Area D, the new Round Rock/Pflugerville/North San Antonio/Austin area done in the last re-alignment have region 26, 8, 12 and 18.  If past results are indicative of future results, looks like the new Area D (got rid of Leander, Hays/Westlake, Lake Travis and Dripping Springs) is going to send only 5 this year to State finals.  

 

Region 8 had 4 6A schools receive 1's in Region.  Region 12 had 10, Region 18 had 7 and Region 26 had 8.  Total 27, for every 5 we send 1.  So 5 finalists out of the Area D finals.  

 

So, Bowie, CTJ, Reagan(SA), Round Rock, Hendrickson, Pflugerville, Cedar Ridge, Westwood, McNeil, Belton, Churchill and others. 

 

BOA Austin had Hendrickson, Churchill, Cedar Ridge, CTJ, and Round Rock in the finals.  Next in the prelims were Westwood at 12, John Paul Stevens at 13, Pflugerville at 16, Stony Point at 17. Obviously not all the 6A schools in the Area competed. 

 

That being said, only 5 bands 'sgoing to hurt.

 

That's my reading of the rules and realignment.  Am I right?  I've been wrong in the past!

[mamaband]

Will Vandy be the one to finally dethrone Marcus? Their BOA Austin win shows a seamless transition into 6A. Has anyone actually seen Marcus or Hebron this year?

[jmj]

In response to: "Anyone know of any other bands right at the cut-off point that may surprise us this year?"

 

In Area D, the new Round Rock/Pflugerville/North San Antonio/Austin area done in the last re-alignment have region 26, 8, 12 and 18.  If past results are indicative of future results, looks like the new Area D (got rid of Leander, Hays/Westlake, Lake Travis and Dripping Springs) is going to send only 5 this year to State finals.  

 

Region 8 had 4 6A schools receive 1's in Region.  Region 12 had 10, Region 18 had 7 and Region 26 had 8.  Total 27, for every 5 we send 1.  So 5 finalists out of the Area D finals.  

 

So, Bowie, CTJ, Reagan(SA), Round Rock, Hendrickson, Pflugerville, Cedar Ridge, Westwood, McNeil, Belton, Churchill and others. 

 

BOA Austin had Hendrickson, Churchill, Cedar Ridge, CTJ, and Round Rock in the finals.  Next in the prelims were Westwood at 12, John Paul Stevens at 13, Pflugerville at 16, Stony Point at 17. Obviously not all the 6A schools in the Area competed. 

 

That being said, only 5 bands 'sgoing to hurt.

 

That's my reading of the rules and realignment.  Am I right?  I've been wrong in the past!

By my calculation, Area D has a potential 32 bands, so it MIGHT be possible to get 6 advancing. Hays ISD actually is still in Region 18 so that helps.

 

Region 8 (7 schools) - Belton, Copperas Cove, Killeen, Shoemaker, Ellison, Harker Heights, Midway

 

Region 12 (11 schools) - Madison, Churchill, Reagan, Lee, Roosevelt, Johnson, MacArthur, NB Canyon, Smithson Valley, New Braunfels, San Marcos

 

Region 18 (6 schools) - Bowie, Akins, Anderson, Del Valle, Hays, Lehman

 

Region 18 (8 schools) - Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, Westwood, McNeil, Stony Point, Hendrickson, Pflugerville, Manor

 

Last year, 26 of these 32 received a 1 at Region, so we'll need some improvement to get to 30, but it's not impossible. I really think that this is the toughest area as whoever advances (whether 5 or 6) has a great shot to make the state finals. So glad they moved Eanes and Leander ISDs to Area H. Otherwise this already stacked area would be beyond intense.

[snares]

 

Will Vandy be the one to finally dethrone Marcus? Their BOA Austin win shows a seamless transition into 6A. Has anyone actually seen Marcus or Hebron this year?

I've seen Marcus at their first football game and Hebrons stand still parent performance, and obviously we can't make judgements off of either of those. I do think Vandegrift will do well at state this year, but we can't mix BOA judging with UIL judging. There's no GE in UIL, and scores are higher for how hard the show is. So for Hebron and Marcus, who both pack insanely technical shows it's kinda hard to keep up with them. Don't get me wrong, anything can happen, but no one plays that hard of a book like they do. Also watch out for Flowermound this year. Just throwing them out into the pit of burning flames.

[LKendrick]

The strongest things about Vandegrift are why I think they're a state champion underdog.  INCREDIBLY proficient and clean marching and their playing is just unreal for this early.  At a minimum they'll at least hang with the big dogs.

 

It is REALLY hard to pick 10 - 12 bands for finals, the 10 - 12 I have in an early prediction could honestly make an argument for medaling.  Gonna be a tough one.  I feel like the medalists/top 2 have been VERY cut and dry for a few years.  Not so much this year......

[LHSax]

The not so bold prediction would be - the winner will come from LISD. I'd say that's a pretty safe bet.

[natertater21000]

Except difficulty isn't factored in in UIL half as much as it is in boa. All that matters is that it is clean and balanced not difficult or exciting (Claudia Taylor getting 10th in 2012 as an example) not to say Marcus Hebron and vandys shows aren't difficult they are. But more notes does not get you bonus points at uil.

[whitewing09]

Except difficulty isn't factored in in UIL half as much as it is in boa. All that matters is that it is clean and balanced not difficult or exciting (Claudia Taylor getting 10th in 2012 as an example) not to say Marcus Hebron and vandys shows aren't difficult they are. But more notes does not get you bonus points at uil.

 

What about CTJ getting 3rd in 2014? I remember that show being particularly difficult, but not particularly clean.

[LHSax]

Except difficulty isn't factored in in UIL half as much as it is in boa. All that matters is that it is clean and balanced not difficult or exciting (Claudia Taylor getting 10th in 2012 as an example) not to say Marcus Hebron and vandys shows aren't difficult they are. But more notes does not get you bonus points at uil.

 

Always believed this to be an exaggerated point. Does UIL emphasize cleanliness? Yes. Is it the only factor? Definitely not. A crazy difficult show can mask a few cleanliness errors by simply by being an impressive show. (IE whitewing's example above)

 

I've never been a big believer that judges are checking off boxes in a rubric of difficulty and cleanliness. The fact is, that no matter what the competition is, judges will score a show based on how much they like it...and that's based on a number of factors that they personally find important, based on how they were taught and how they teach. Are there bands that excel a bit more under UIL rubrics? yes...But generally the finals bands at BOA and UIL overlap because a good show is a good show.

[natertater21000]

I definitely agree that great bands excell at both I'm just saying that just because hebron and Marcus exhibit lots of musical difficulty doesn't mean vandegrift has a lesser chance at winning state

[LHSax]

Agreed. If anything I'd say Vandy's BOA win is even MORE impressive (and scary for other groups) because I actually think they do emulate the Marcus model of cleanliness more so than the "BOA-side" of things.

[washedupalum2017]

I don't know. The transition from classes has never been easy for any bands... maybe in a few years, they will be able to get up in the top couple places. This year? I'm not so sure. The Hebron/Marcus/FloMo/CTJ bubble will be very hard to pop, especially by newcomers.

[natertater21000]

I don't really see any of the lisd bands as "new comers" though. They may have not been to 6a uil but both leander and vandegrift have beaten bands in the top bubble at other contests in the past few years.

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

Will Vandy be the one to finally dethrone Marcus? Their BOA Austin win shows a seamless transition into 6A.

From what I've seen from watching multiple recent videos of Vandegrift, their BOA Austin finals performance is currently a rarity in terms of quality. Their other recent performances (i.e. BOA Austin prelims, LISD Festival of Bands) have been very, very good for this early in the season, but are still a slight, but notable step down in quality compared to their BOA Austin Finals performance. So it is still too early to determine if Vandegrift will be at the level of Marcus come November 8. They will have to keep pushing forward at an equal or perhaps even greater pace of improvement compared to what they have done since August of this year. Are they capable of dethroning Marcus? It is possible to some degree. Leander went from 15th in prelims at BOA San Antonio in 2013 to 3rd at BOA San Antonio finals in 2014. And what's even better is that Vandegrift is working from a higher position than Leander was in 2013 (last year: 10th at BOA San Antonio finals, tied for 1st but lost the tie at the 5A State finals). To say the least, 6A State is going to be interesting!

[washedupalum2017]

I don't really see any of the lisd bands as "new comers" though. They may have not been to 6a uil but both leander and vandegrift have beaten bands in the top bubble at other contests in the past few years.

Right, that's what I was getting at; they haven't seen anyone at UIL. They may be doing very well in the BOA scene but BOA and UIL are judged extremely differently.

[principalagent]

The not so bold prediction would be - the winner will come from LISD. I'd say that's a pretty safe bet.

 

This is such a clever comment and I'm upset that nobody caught it / directed attention to it.

 

I agree with the above poster who noted that Vandegrift was performing on an extraordinary level at BOA Austin finals. Having been there all day, I completely agree. If they have a performance like that, anything can happen (and a shakier performance by Leander in finals certainly helped too). I think both them and Leander will make a huge splash - I would be a little surprised to see either place out of the top 8, at this point. I've noticed a general shift, especially recently, in UIL judging priorities to more of an achievement model of scoring rather than pure execution, which others have alluded to. I believe this helped CTJ a lot in 2014 and I can only see that helping them, as well as Leander, score well this November.