Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I guess I'll give some VERY early predictions, why not?

 

I think Marcus is going to take home their fifth straight UIL championship this year. They may not be as dominant in the BOA circuit as they used to be, but they are just too good in the areas UIL judges generally look at. Visually and musically from an execution/ precision standpoint, they are a just a monster.

 

Hebron is the one band that I think MAY have a shot at taking Marcus down, but like I said, I think Marcus is still just too good. However, I do think Hebron this year will be the toughest competition Marcus has had since they started winning in 2006. Regardless of what order they finish in, I do think Hebron and Marcus will be in their own league at the top 2 positions, similar to what happened at the 2012 State finals.

 

Bronze is always a bloodbath, and I think this year will be no different. I think it will be another tough fight between Bowie, Coppell, and Bell. Bowie is REALLY going to want it after losing that tie breaker in 2012, so I'm sure they'll be on fire. Heck, maybe we'll see a surprise such as Reagan, who placed third in prelims in 2012 if I remember correctly. I can't wait to see who wins this one!

 

I'm also curious to see if Duncanville will return to form this year. I haven't seen them perform yet, but I'll for sure be keeping my eyes o them!

 

As usual, the actual results of this competition will probably be surprising and unpredictable and I'll probably be wrong on quite a few of these predictions, but we'll see what happens! I can't wait! I may make changes to my predictions as the season goes on as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I'll give some VERY early predictions, why not?

 

I think Marcus is going to take home their fifth straight UIL championship this year. They may not be as dominant in the BOA circuit as they used to be, but they are just too good in the areas UIL judges generally look at. Visually and musically from an execution/ precision standpoint, they are a just a monster.

 

Hebron is the one band that I think MAY have a shot at taking Marcus down, but like I said, I think Marcus is still just too good. However, I do think Hebron this year will be the toughest competition Marcus has had since they started winning in 2006. Regardless of what order they finish in, I do think Hebron and Marcus will be in their own league at the top 2 positions, similar to what happened at the 2012 State finals.

 

Bronze is always a bloodbath, and I think this year will be no different. I think it will be another tough fight between Bowie, Coppell, and Bell. Bowie is REALLY going to want it after losing that tie breaker in 2012, so I'm sure they'll be on fire. Heck, maybe we'll see a surprise such as Reagan, who placed third in prelims in 2012 if I remember correctly. I can't wait to see who wins this one!

 

I'm also curious to see if Duncanville will return to form this year. I haven't seen them perform yet, but I'll for sure be keeping my eyes o them!

 

As usual, the actual results of this competition will probably be surprising and unpredictable and I'll probably be wrong on quite a few of these predictions, but we'll see what happens! I can't wait! I may make changes to my predictions as the season goes on as well.

 

Great stuff, although I'm going to go in a slightly different direction. I think this is the year that Hebron takes home the gold. Their technical brilliance in music and visual reminds me very much of Reagan from around 10 years ago. 

 

That being said, I think this year is even more up for grabs than usual. It's going to be fun. I also really like Friendswood and Dawson's chances of making their first 6A (or 5A) state contest. I would put them in the top 15-20 range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on a couple videos that I've seen, I wouldn't forget about Woodlands. I realize that they never seem to finish as high at UIL as they do at BOA but they sound strong. We'll know more after their BOA this weekend. Any other thoughts about why TW seems to place higher at BOA vs UIL??

 

There are some bands that I have no clue why they don't do as well in UIL vs BOA or vice versa. Sometimes it's show design, but I don't think that's the case for The Woodlands. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great stuff, although I'm going to go in a slightly different direction. I think this is the year that Hebron takes home the gold. Their technical brilliance in music and visual reminds me very much of Reagan from around 10 years ago. 

 

That being said, I think this year is even more up for grabs than usual. It's going to be fun. I also really like Friendswood and Dawson's chances of making their first 6A (or 5A) state contest. I would put them in the top 15-20 range. 

Hmmm... You do make a good point, and I do agree with quite a bit of what you said. If Hebron nails all the articulation and technical runs in their show (especially in their INSANE closing movement), which they likely will, they will be a very serious contender for the gold. I still think Marcus' visual strength may be an obstacle for Hebron when it comes to UIL, but you never know how things will turn out. Like I said, I definitely think Hebron this year will be the toughest competition Marcus has ever faced since they started dominating the state marching contest. It certainly would be awesome to see a new state champion! 

 

And yes! The lineup of bands at state this year may look quite different with some new contenders, which makes me pretty excited. I agree, it should be VERY fun to watch!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm interested in seeing how the NEISD bands do at State! I'm betting that CTJ will move up from its 10th place from 2012 (after placing 8th in Prelims) and it seems like Reagan is starting to regain its momentum from the past couple of years. 

 

Also, I think Flower Mound is a strong contender to make state finals for its very first time. They already showed that they're making the Grand Nationals push and they beat a Texas powerhouse at BOA Denton. Although I realize the difference between the UIL and BOA circuits, I still think it's a strong indicator for how FloMo will do this season in both circuits. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I'm biased, but this could be the first time Round Rock makes state finals in decades, after landing just outside of finals in 2010 and not advancing from area in 2012. If they make it into finals this year, I couldn't even guess where they would land.

 

I agree with you. I think the RRISD bands are capable of making state. It'd be interesting to see how well Round Rock and Cedar Ridge do in UIL this year, especially they did so well in BOA last year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hebron probably wins, and Marcus medals. The other medalist should be Bowie, Coppell, or The Woodlands. I have yet to see Bell, but placing outside of the top 3 at a regular BOA regional for the first time since 2005 (almost 10 years!) doesn't make me want to predict them as a medalist at UIL State. Then again, they should have been around 8th place last time at State and somehow ended up placing 3rd. There's always the possibility that Denton wasn't a good reflection of the program this year, and that Bell will vastly improve between now and then. I'd list CTJ as the wild card. I haven't seen their show, but they improve each year. They also have a very fine concert program and just medalled at the State Honor Band Competition. Sounding like a concert band on the field is a huge advantage at UIL State, though CTJ, like The Woodlands, tends to emulate DCI more than a symphony hall. I think Lippman is gearing his group for consistent BOA success and eventually the Grand National Championship, though success in both UIL and BOA obviously isn't out of the question. In fact, expect just about all the UIL finalists to be picked from the BOA San Antonio Super Regional finalists.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone seems to have a different opinion about LDB. We saw their finals performance and left thinking that they had big potential, especially from a visual and GE standpoint.  Their music was a bit muddy and not up to their usual snuff but they've got lots of time to pull it together.  It seems strange to say this, but I would label them a dark horse to finish high at both BOA and UIL in San Antonio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There always seem to be a bunch of bands that seem to have very odd placements at UIL making it almost impossible to predict. In 2012, Keller came in 11th over bands like Duncanville and Rowlett, just barely missing out on finals. I don't think anyone really expected that.

 

Here is a short list of bands that could slip into finals (among others):

-Duncanville (3rd in 2010 and 14th in 2012?)

-Rowlett

-Keller

-Keller Central

-Plano East (If they make it out of area B )

-Spring

 

And as far as Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, and Flower Mound go, not one of them is a lock for finals unfortunately. I would probably give Cedar Ridge the edge to making it of the three and then maybe Flower Mound. For Round Rock it'll all depend on whether they sound like they did last year at Grand Nats or not. BOA SA Round Rock was much less clean and had a lot of edge to their sound, while GN Round Rock was much more well blended.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There always seem to be a bunch of bands that seem to have very odd placements at UIL making it almost impossible to predict. In 2012, Keller came in 11th over bands like Duncanville and Rowlett, just barely missing out on finals. I don't think anyone really expected that.

 

Here is a short list of bands that could slip into finals (among others):

-Duncanville (3rd in 2010 and 14th in 2012?)

-Rowlett

-Keller

-Keller Central

-Plano East (If they make it out of area B )

-Spring

 

And as far as Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, and Flower Mound go, not one of them is a lock for finals unfortunately. I would probably give Cedar Ridge the edge to making it of the three and then maybe Flower Mound. For Round Rock it'll all depend on whether they sound like they did last year at Grand Nats or not. BOA SA Round Rock was much less clean and had a lot of edge to their sound, while GN Round Rock was much more well blended.

 

I like what you said about Round Rock. One problem they've had in past years (especially last year) is picking very hard drill and music with challenging portions. I have heard that this year they have really scaled back the difficulty in the drill and put more focus into the music. Both their marching technique and their ensemble sound needs a lot of work. But I believe they are ahead of the curve with how much of their show they have learned at this point versus past years (they usually didnt have their full show on the field until 1-2 weeks before BOA SA.) Although they certainly still need work, RR tends to peak late, and their show this year is much more oriented to UIL State than it ever has in recent years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It may be tough to predict much past the very top until we know who is getting out of Areas B & D. Unfortunately, Area B only has 25 total 6A bands in the whole area. Assuming that at least one of them will get a 2 at Region, you're looking at likely only 4 bands moving on to state out of B. And, we must hope that at least 20 of those 25 get a division 1 at Region to preserve that. I think Marcus and Hebron are the likely locks in Area B, so that means the other 2 will probably come from some combination of: LD Bell, Plano East, Flower Mound, Richland, Haltom, Mansfield, or Martin. Good grief! That contest will be brutal.

 

Area D is also incredibly tough, but with about 40 total bands in Area D, there is definitely more margin. Last time, Area D was able to send 6. I would expect that again with an outside shot for perhaps even 7 to go. I think Bowie, CTJ, and Ronald Reagan are the locks there. So, the other advancements will likely be from some combination of: Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, Hendrickson, Westlake, Pflugerville, Westwood, or Anderson.

 

I intend to keep a very close eye on the region contests results to see how the numbers shake out and will make some posts to keep track of it all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It may be tough to predict much past the very top until we know who is getting out of Areas B & D. Unfortunately, Area B only has 25 total 6A bands in the whole area. Assuming that at least one of them will get a 2 at Region, you're looking at likely only 4 bands moving on to state out of B. And, we must hope that at least 20 of those 25 get a division 1 at Region to preserve that. I think Marcus and Hebron are the likely locks in Area B, so that means the other 2 will probably come from some combination of: LD Bell, Plano East, Flower Mound, Richland, Haltom, Mansfield, or Martin. Good grief! That contest will be brutal.

 

Area D is also incredibly tough, but with about 40 total bands in Area D, there is definitely more margin. Last time, Area D was able to send 6. I would expect that again with an outside shot for perhaps even 7 to go. I think Bowie, CTJ, and Ronald Reagan are the locks there. So, the other advancements will likely be from some combination of: Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, Hendrickson, Westlake, Pflugerville, Westwood, or Anderson.

 

I intend to keep a very close eye on the region contests results to see how the numbers shake out and will make some posts to keep track of it all.

 

I'm assuming for area B it's 25 in total? Because if that's the case, only 4 will advance. Neither Plano Senior nor Plano West participate in area so that'll knock it down to 23.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Unfortunately, Area B only has 25 total 6A bands in the whole area. Assuming that at least one of them will get a 2 at Region, you're looking at likely only 4 bands moving on to state out of B. And, we must hope that at least 20 of those 25 get a division 1 at Region to preserve that. I think Marcus and Hebron are the likely locks in Area B, so that means the other 2 will probably come from some combination of: LD Bell, Plano East, Flower Mound, Richland, Haltom, Mansfield, or Martin. Good grief! That contest will be brutal."

 

 

There hasn't been a division 2 from any of these bands for quite some time. Honestly my money is on the LISD power house of flo mo Marcus and Hebron along with Bell. The fifth either being Plano East or Richland. I would say getting to state out of area B is the hardest thing a band in Texas can do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming for area B it's 25 in total? Because if that's the case, only 4 will advance. Neither Plano Senior nor Plano West participate in area so that'll knock it down to 23.

It is unfortunate that earning the right advance to Area but choosing not to doesn't count towards filling out the number of bands that Advance to State.

 

Thankfully, that rule is changing as of next year's season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of now I have a hard time seeing anyone touching Hebron at UIL. I just saw a new video of them with faster tempos, even cleaner articulation and just a downright insane sound. Seems like still have drill to add-- they stopped in the same place as in Denton. Can't wait to see this monster in the dome. I will echo everyone else and say the remaining two medals go between Coppell, Bowie, Marcus and The Woodlands. We will get a better idea after Conroe this weekend. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow! Just viewed the video you are referring to. I agree they look and sound great. Could end up being a Nix masterpiece. Music and GE loaded. The visual is the show itself. It's possible they may sweep captions. I think they were second in Denton finals in visual by .10 to Bell but I could be wrong.

 

Can't wait to see Conroe vid's. And to see all these bands in SA!! It's gonna be crazy!!!!! Marcus, Hebron, Flomo, Bell, Coppell, Woodlands, Bowie, CTJ, Reagan, Leander. The list goes on. Just making finals will be a task. So many great bands, so few spots.

 

Wow!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like flo mo isn't getting enough credit this year. They missed state in 2012 by 1 and they want to take their band all the way. To be honest the top 7 from area B are all finalist bands. This LISD 6A power house trio is gonna come storming out of North Texas and I think they have the ability to repeat Denton if they keep it up.

 

I'm saying Hebron Marcus Bell Woodlands and Flo Mo top 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on what I saw yesterday in Conroe, I don't think the woodlands will medal purely because their music isn't nearly as technically demanding as say marcus and CTJ. I was impressed with CTJ, they also kinda left everyone else in the dust. And of course there's always Bowie. They are never really out of the medal placement. I see them or CTJ taking bronze. Based on Hebrons HEB Finals performance, that was probably the best I've ever heard a band this early in the season. I know those independent contests aren't very accurate at scoring, but a freaking 93.6? That's ridiculous. I'm guessing that would be around a 89 at a boa event. And their woodwinds are more articulate, brass features are coming along, and the closer is just ridiculous. I see them taking straight 1's at state if they work their butts off like they have. So that leaves marcus at second. But who knows maybe marcus takes gold. I'm also really excited for BOA super regional!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While music is 3/5ths of a band's score at UIL, I'd like to remind people that the other 2/5ths are visual, and in a state with many great sounding programs, it might become a deciding factor, if one clearly stands out as the cleanest. I think Marcus' and Hebron's music performances are (or at least will be) outstanding and are perfectly tailored to UIL, but visually, I'd give both The Woodlands and Bowie the edge, based on what I've seen. Then there's CTJ, who just upset The Woodlands yesterday in a most spectacular way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, I wouldn't bother trying to convert an independent contest's hard score to a BOA contest score. You'll be disappointed every time. I can't tell you how many times the more experienced posters here have had to try to convince a kid that just because their band got a 99 at Indie Darling Contest #22 doesn't mean they should have gotten at least a 95 at BOA San Antonio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Indie Darling Contest #22"... That needs to be an actual contest. I had the stupidest grin on my face as I read that.

Absurdly bloated non-BOA/ UIL scores aside, I was able to watch Hebron's finals performance at HEB, and what I saw changed my previous opinion. I originally thought there wasn't a very big chance anyone was going to knock off Marcus at UIL, but Hebron really blew me away with this most recent performance. I've become convinced that they have a better chance at walking away with the gold medal than Marcus does.

Musically, they seemed to be even more confident than they were last weekend.The brass are flat out nailing the ridiculous articulation in their multiple features throughout the closing movement (especially for this early in the season, it's just ridiculous). They HAVE to pull off those articulation sections with flying colors if they want to win at state, and so far they are doing it. I will say, the beginning section of the closer after the dance section still sounds a little rocky. It's kind of strange how all the insane technical runs aren't really giving them much trouble, but the much slower section is what they seem to be struggling with right now. However, the first and second movements of the show were wonderful and flat out gorgeous. Nothing more to say about them other than that. Come November, this show is probably going to be about as flawless as it gets from a musical standpoint.

I also feel like they have improved quite a bit visually since last weekend. They especially seemed to be paying much more attention to keeping their lines straight. They still have some kinks to work out (I feel like the curvilinear formations in particular, while great already, need to be fine tuned just a little bit more in some areas), but they are small kinks.

I still don't and probably never will have even the slightest clue who will win BOA SA, but after seeing that HEB finals performance, I think UIL could very well be Hebron's for the taking. If it's not freezing cold this year like it sometimes is, I'm hoping to go watch Area B finals to see how Marcus and Hebron match up against each other in the late season. but until then, a Hebron win is my prediction as of now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...