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shaggy

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Posts posted by shaggy

  1. On 10/31/2021 at 1:23 AM, Rubisco said:

    which apparently will be filled with 95+ scores, unless BOA tones it down a little. It's okay. I don't mind it.

    With the way scores are looking, I wouldn't be surprised to see us reach 97 at San Antonio again. Possibly some 90 point performances will miss finals like in 2017 as well. 

    Cedar Park at a 93 with them (maybe) not being a top 2 band in their district is absurd. I am excited to see the 5A state results between them and Leander. Maybe they aren't top 3. That would be even more crazy.

  2. 5 hours ago, A Testing Trumpet said:

    I haven't been following this season as closely as others in the past, but judging how Coppell beat Blue Springs and Keller already this year, I think there is higher probability of them making finals than not. 

    Rouse is a wildcard, but I'm less sure on them making it then other bands. Early season results boded very well for them with them in the top 3 at Austin (!), but that was September. Since then they most recently came 2nd to Cedar Park and even 6th at the TMC. 

    Cedar Ridge is having a great year. The finish over Leander at Austin, and two points over Pearland bodes well for them.

    With that being said, for finalists this year:

    "Locks"

    • Vandegrift
    • Claudia Taylor Johnson
    • Ronald Reagan
    • The Woodlands
    • Hebron

    Mid Tier, should make finals

    • Vista Ridge
    • Cedar Ridge
    • Leander
    • Marcus

    Finalist Bubble, Upper

    • Coppell
    • Cedar Park

    Finalist Bubble

    • Round Rock
    • Rouse
    • Pearland
    • Keller
    • Seven Lakes
    • James Bowie

    I could go deeper into it, but I don't think it will be quite as crazy as other recent years to break into finals. (With Flower Mound, L.D. Bell, other bubble bands, and no out of state bands like Avon in 2017)

    Grand Nationals this year on the other hand looks to be more close, though. 

    This looks pretty close to what I'd expect but I would change the bubble just a little bit. Gotta give more credit to rouse for hanging with the big names all season, and round rock for beating Reagan in music this weekend. Cedar Park is also probably a lock. Vista Ridge deserves to be a lock. I know it was UIL but they beat Vandegrift, I think that puts them above cedar ridge and company. 

    "Locks"

    • Vandegrift
    • Claudia Taylor Johnson
    • Ronald Reagan
    • The Woodlands
    • Hebron
    • Vista Ridge

    Mid Tier, should make finals

    • Cedar Ridge
    • Leander
    • Cedar Park

    Finalist Bubble, Upper

    • Coppell
    • Marcus
    • Round Rock
    • Rouse
    • James Bowie

    Finalist Bubble

    • Pearland
    • Keller
    • Seven Lakes

     

  3. Predictions based on things I've heard + some speculation 

    1. CTJ - Coming off the most normal season and winning a weird 6A State, I expect them to win in convincing fashion like they did in 2017 especially after what I have heard of their show
    2. Vandegrift - reigning grand nats champion, easily could end up at 1st like in 2019 but their show seems a bit lighter than in 2019
    3. Vista Ridge - haven't heard a lot about this band except that their show is really hard which might make getting higher than 3rd hard for them but could help them out at grand nats if they can peak late
    4. Leander - Out of the clear top 4 here I think leander is clearly in 4th. I don't really like their show and their band looks noticeably smaller. I would prefer if I was wrong about this tho because the theme seems cool but the music seems boring
    5. Cedar Ridge - Cedar ridge sounds as good as any year but I'm still not sure about them due to a huge drop in size. I have them at 5th just because round rock hasnt done well at austin recently
    6. Round Rock - From what I saw of their show they could easily return to their 2013-2017 run where the medaled almost every year. The music sounds well put together already and their guard is much improved
    7. Cedar Park - I have heard absolutely nothing about cedar park this year but considering they got 5th last year over cedar ridge I expect them to do well
    8. Westwood - I expect the most improved band of 2019 to continue that path and hopefully push for a spot in SA finals(which should be easier this year without flomo or bell attending)
    9. Bowie
    10. Hendrickson - I don't expect them to be worse than in 2019. Im not sure what is going on with the director change but I think they are due for some positive regression 
    11. Rouse 
    12. Westlake / Lake Travis

    Music - CTJ
    Visual - Vista Ridge
    GE - CTJ

  4. 3 minutes ago, Rubisco said:

    Round Rock is one of two Texas Nats groups I've seen this year. As of last week, I think they sound and look like a national finalist band in the making, at least when compared to my prototypical idea of a national finalist group. The problem is that this year is so obscenely competitive that my prototype is probably out of date. To make it into finals, they'll need to beat both Dobyns-Bennett (a consistent Cartwright finalist) AND Wando, or a couple of the other seemingly surer bets. That's going to be difficult, I think.

    I wouldnt bet against Round Rock making finals personally

  5. I just watched a video of round rock from yesterday. I am really impressed, I dont think they have sounded this good this early maybe since 2015 when they would've won BOA Austin without a penalty. I don't think they can beat anyone in the top 4 but really 5th or 6th seems like there spot to lose. I was especially impressed when I rewatched videos from this time in 2019 and the improvement is dramatic. The band already sounds very balanced and the only thing that I could see being a problem is the drill. There is about 3 minutes of show on the field rn but It seems like the drill they have added since mid august is already relatively clean and the music sounds as good as the beginning. 

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