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2020 6A State


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  • 5 weeks later...

Leander Dropping to 5A is a big deal in 6A Area H. Leander almost missed state in 2018 because area H was too competitive with Vandegrift, Vista Ridge, Westlake, Leander and Lake Travis all competing for 3 spots.

 

Westlake is a lock for state now (as if they haven't made it every year since like 2000) and Lake Travis has a wayyy better chance now. Especially considering 2 more 6A schools were added, Harlan and Wagner. Hopefully that means 4 will advance from this Area now!

 

Also 5A Area H - Now officially the most competitive in all of 5A and could very likely produce all 3 medal winners at state in 2021, with maybe 4 finalists!

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Another big change is that UIL is now taking 14 bands to finals if there are more than 40 bands in prelims, which there will be.

 

There are 8 bands that have been a finalist at both UIL State and the BOA Super Regional every time for the past 4 years and should be considered locks:

 

FloMo

Hebron

Marcus

Vandegrift

Leander

Reagan

Keller

The Woodlands

 

Leander is now 5A, so take them off the list (and add them to the likely 5A state champion list!)

 

CTJ didn't attend in 2016 due to Grand Nats, but is obviously a lock as well.

 

Vista Ridge didn't advance in 2016, but as the defending champion is clearly a lock.

 

That's 9 bands that barring a disaster will be performing the 2nd day.

 

The only times that LD Bell hasn't been a finalist in recent memory were the two years that they didn't advance to state at all.  That is unlikely to happen again, so count them in.  

 

That leaves 4 spots for a huge number of great bands.

 

Coppell, Round Rock, and Cedar Ridge have either been in finals or just missing out the past several times, and Waxahachie has made the jump to 6A smoothly.

 

The bubble outside of this is big.  Lots of great bands!

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While it’s sad to see Leander fall to a classification where they will likely be dominant, I hope that their dominance and status makes other 5A bands really step it up in the future. This change could be really beneficial to the non 6A world.

 

Also, Hendrickson should do well in 5A as they still placed in the top 30 at SA. More competition is a good thing!

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Area D will be a big one to watch, as of now with all the drops I have only have 5 bands projected to qualify for state (barring potential boundary changes). We have seen the big 3 RR schools (Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, and Westwood) all make state at least once in the past 3 cycles (with CR being the only one to do it all 3 times) and this past BOA SA with them all finishing within 0.375 points inside of each other, anything could happen. I also could see any of these groups in finals if they qualify for state. Reagan and CTJ certainly won't be missing state anytime soon and I feel similarly about Bowie, though not quite as strongly. Churchill is another group that could be thrown into the mix with with RR schools, but they haven't qualified for state since 2010(?) and their staff change seems to have set them back a little.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention Churchill at first

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Seeing how much Hendrickson fell in size makes me think it might have had some to do with their drop in performance this year. Not a significant amount, but it could still be noticeable.

I believe they lost some of their enrollment to Weiss, whom I've heard could move up to 6A in the near future.

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