LHSax

It's so weird seeing the prop argument from this perspective considering Marcus (the band that "should wipe the floor") in its heyday (late 2000's, early 2010's) was notoriously known for their extravagant props, which often sparked debate on here along the lines of "Marcus is only winning because of their huge prop budget" (this was not the case). Seeing the opposite argument of "Vandy shouldn't win" due to lack of props is bizarre to say the least.

Count me as part of team Cedar Ridge. I have them as the leader among the Cedars, Ridges, and Rouses.

The oracle hath returned! Oh great oracle, who will be receiving penalties this year?

I’m totally on board the CP hype train, it’s exciting to see them get back to their previous level of success after some rough years. It’s impressive to me that while many bands have taken a hit during Covid, CP seems to somehow have gotten BIGGER. I’ve been cautiously optimistic each of the last few years about CP after seeing some early videos, but the shows never quite got to the performance level that they appear to be getting to this year, that we are used to out of previous Cedar Park iterations. I don’t know if this will go down as one of my favorite CP shows (it’s got a bit too many musical ideas for me), but I’m excited that they’re taking on a more ambitious show and very much succeeding. I don’t quite have them in the medal hunt (the top of the field is just too stacked), and the statement “top placing band in LISD” is pretty bold considering Vandy is likely the best band in the country at the moment, but I do have them landing in the top half at the moment if they can hold off their LISD rivals, and that will be a huge accomplishment after a few years of sub-par appearances.

For Reference: http://www.uiltexas.org/files/music/6A_Area_H.pdf And thank goodness it happened, since Leander wound up 5th at state, while Westlake ended up 21st oddly enough.

You forget this is the TXBands forum where Texas bias is more allowed than other places ? I'm a bit more confident in Texas taking at least 2 medals. I think this Texas group is stronger than the 2019 group that took 2 medals, and I'm not convinced Avon/Carmel's shows are strong enough to hold this group off the podium. BA is obviously the wild card, need to see a better video of that show before placing it. Musically, ABC is gonna have a tough time breaking the top 3. And then I think visually this is probably some of the more impressive visual packages Texas has sent recently...I think Reagan's visual design is and has been extremely impactful, FM is pretty close behind (and is a GE monster), and the Woodlands is bringing a guard that (while maybe not Avon level yet) is truly elite. I think Vandy and Hebron kind of popped the visual bubble in 2019, taking 2nd and 3rd in visual, with relatively tame visual packages. The difference with this years groups is that I think they have the VGE to backup competitive visual scores. And i haven't even mentioned CTJ and Marcus yet... Consider me optimistic that this will be a big year for TX bands.

I guarantee the "they always find a way to make it" crowd is exclusive to those of us band fan onlookers who have watched it happen time and time again over the last decade, and has nothing to do with the mentality of the band and staff itself...

Feels like a mix of Secret World and early 2000's Reagan...which are all my favorite things, so I'm here for it. I think all the pieces are there for this thing to be unstoppable, just need to see if that last bit of magic is added to push it to the top of a stacked field in November. Excited to see a higher quality video this weekend!

I think one of the key differences between the "locks" and the "work to do" groups from this past weekend (aside from scores and placement) is the concepts of the shows. CTJ and TWHS have themes that are relatively easy to dive into and are pretty self-explanatory, especially at this early stage of the year, While VR and RR have some pretty abstract thematic ideas that will likely take all year to flesh out and see what is working vs what is not. I don't think their shows are quite connecting yet and may not make sense with 2 movements (not to mention RR not having guard uniforms yet). Of course CTJ and TWHS are also on a whole other tier of performance at the moment as well, but VR and RR, as we've discussed here are historically late bloomers. We'll see if they still have the magic.

This competition is always useful in gauging the general strength of bands between Austin and Houston due to the few Austin bands that always make the trip. Westwood and Westlake made the trip down in 2019 and had a lot of success (an early sign of Austin's strength that year), and I get the feeling Cedar Ridge, Westlake and even Lake Travis will do the same this year. I also get the feeling North Houston's scores were a little bloated this past week, but Cedar Ridge V. Seven Lakes and Pearland V Westlake should give us our first real barometer of how bands across regions are shaping up. Of course I would also love to see Houston defend it's territory as well!

See above

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I'm hearing a lot of this too, and part of me is hoping it's just our reliance on audio built for football games early in the year (IE the exception to this has been Vandy, but they have pretty professional recordings). However, there likely will be more rough edges than usual as everyone gets used to marching and playing again. I think endurance will also have to be something that is built up again, as even schools that did compete last year had shorter, watered down shows (with a few exceptions). I think the progress between early season regionals and SA/Indy for many groups will be quite impressive.

Oh I have a lot of confidence in VR's trajectory, I just know they've become notoriously good at peaking at their final performance of the year over the last few years. And I'll second Cedar Park from what little I've seen...I think they'll show up well here and will hopefully push for a return to SA finals.

While I should know better than predicting against a LeanderMomma vote of confidence in Vista after the famous 2018 State pick, Vista has historically been a late bloomer, and in a year in which they're trying to peak even a week later than typical, I could once again see them in 4th of the big 4 (and still have zero doubt they'll get to the high aspirations they set for themselves by the time Indy rolls around) Of course all predictions for this are even more history-based than usual, since bands have been even more close to the chest of their plans than the 2000's when videos were super hard to come by. So historically speaking, I lean Vandy here, as I think their early season cleanliness will once again be hard to beat, especially in a year where I expect many bands to be a bit rocky coming out of the gate after 2020's semi-season. But of course CTJ could come out hot after benefiting from being the one group in the area that marched a competitive show last year. And then there's Leander, who I have honestly uncharacteristically heard little to nothing about this preseason...what do they have brewing? I'm glad they expanded finals to 12, as this contest especially really needed it. I think adding a band to the top half split adds some intrigue and there have always been more than 10 finalist-worthy bands at this regional.

And of course we will be sending every UIL top level state champ since 2004...It's hard to imagine a stronger contingency of Texas bands (at least one that doesn't include the defending grand national champ) and it's even wilder that they will be up against one of the better lineups that the rest of the country has to offer. This will definitely at least partially make up for the lack of true season last year.

Way to early 2021 predictions: GE Scores: go through the roof next year! A whole year to fine tune competitive shows that already have solid foundations will result in some very intriguing depth of concept. Design teams will really get a chance to milk the most out of these shows over the year and I think it will show on the field next year. Music Scores: get a bump. Students usually get music a few months before marching season, but now imagine having it for a whole year beforehand. I think how directors handle this will be the most interesting. I think we see much more ambitious musical productions next year since students will have a whole year to practice the base production, allowing the marching season to be a place where some very technical new parts and pieces are added (sim to what we typically see throughout a DCI season). Do bands rehearse the show music over the course of this year? or would that be unfair to seniors? Visual Scores: Might suffer slightly. Yes, I know bands are still attempting some type of show(s) this year, but those won't replace the experience of doing a full 8+ min competitive show, so it's possible visual programs aren't quite as strong next year. Of course this is all relative. We likely won't see a literal change in scores, but the overall level of quality relative to past years will probably vary per above.

Appreciate the research, this was a good read! I've always wondered (considering the obvious rich history texas high school band has, as laid out here) why Texas has had very little success historically in fielding a consistently good world class drum corp...I think it's quite obvious, especially in the last 10-15 years, that Texas has the deepest field of quality high school bands. I'm sure there are a bunch of reasons why it's been hard to break into the ranks of successful drum corps, but it seems like with the plethora of talent in Texas, it's always confused me...

Literally one of the first shows I went to when i got the folder ?

Agreed! I propose we relive these seasons together as a board in lieu of the slowly canceled 2020 season.

Hmmm, I imagine 2020, in whatever form it takes, may offset the schedules of some of these bands. Fundraising may be a bit difficult in these times, and there’s obviously many many other variables to planning these trips...although it’s possible they get to save a good chunk of money if this year is reduced. Pragmatically, sending 7-8 of our top bands would be amazing, but also kind of redundant with SA at that point....at some point your just knocking your own groups out of finals. Will be interesting for sure.

Curious is they’ll adjust their show if we have a local circuit...sounds like they had something special planned for a GN year (hoping they give it another shot when this is all over)

Maybe just do all divisions every year like ISSMA? I know there are logistical issues, but maybe 2021 is their chance to try it out. They've already made the successful push to do area every year for all divisions...

Appreciate, as always, the neutral take on current events, I know it's not easy to do. I hope the results of this study are taken with the grain of salt necessary to make a final decision. I think there have already been similar studies done that loosely prove that playing instruments don't necessarily make you more likely to spread the virus, and I'm assuming the same will be found here. But that's relative to if everyone was standing in a crowd without instruments, which, as we have seen, has not gone well so far. If the "phased" re-opening of Texas has gone this poorly, imagine how bad a jump to school, sports and band will go. Unfortunately I still think we're still a couple weeks away from UIL/MFA saying anything definitively.